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  • #2,661
  • Sep 19, 2007 1:44am Sep 19, 2007 1:44am
Hello there..
This week saw tremendous rise in Eur/USD trades.
Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the Euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Keep trading! No speculation - true Forex calculation...
  • #2,662
  • Sep 19, 2007 4:17pm Sep 19, 2007 4:17pm
EUR/USD is in full-bullish mode. I am expecting another big move this thursday and friday - maybe as high as 1.4100 by friday which opens up the way to a potential move to 1.45 in 3 - 6 months.
  • #2,663
  • Sep 19, 2007 4:30pm Sep 19, 2007 4:30pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting ashlee_17
EUR/USD is in full-bullish mode. I am expecting another big move this thursday and friday - maybe as high as 1.4100 by friday which opens up the way to a potential move to 1.45 in 3 - 6 months.
still long from 1.3800, going to add at 1.3950, i'm only aming for 1.4 though this time round. i expect another drop before we make good clearance of 1.4.
  • #2,664
  • Sep 19, 2007 6:12pm Sep 19, 2007 6:12pm
Dollar Near Record Low Versus Euro Before Bernanke's Testimony
By Min Zeng

Full story...

Rmk: Just sharing the information strictly for those who care.
  • #2,665
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:34am Sep 20, 2007 3:34am
Quoting cesarnc
Dollar Near Record Low Versus Euro Before Bernanke's Testimony
By Min Zeng

Full story...

Rmk: Just sharing the information strictly for those who care.
I care, Cesarnc, thank you for sharing.


They say that fiber will hit 1,42 - 1,43 by year-end. I thought about it even before subprime turmoil and fomc rate cut. Now the picture appears acutely worse for the greenback and if we think fomc will cut interest rate furthermore as expected, the "Jacko" target of 1,45 looks pretty achievable in 12 months.

Now the problem is to find a "cheap" entry point... Fiber has broken the upper resistance from 05.2006 opening a fresh new scenario...
I think I need to load myself with a lot of patience and wait.
A deep valley must happen before 1,45...

P.S. Today at 14:00 GMT we can watch Ben Bernanke's speech on bloomberg.

1) Go to:

http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/tv/

2) click on "launch video player"

3) Select your country on the new window.

4) Enjoy!
  • #2,666
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:49am Sep 20, 2007 3:49am
Quoting owkenobi

P.S. Today at 14:00 GMT we can watch Ben Bernanke's speech on bloomberg.

1) Go to:

http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/tv/

2) click on "launch video player"

3) Select your country on the new window.

4) Enjoy!
Thanks. I was wondering whether or not it would be webcast...
  • #2,667
  • Edited 4:47am Sep 20, 2007 4:46am | Edited 4:47am
1,3800 could be a "cheap" entry point...
It's a confluence of a trendline, fibonacci levels and cycle (for timing).
We will see on the next six - nine days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_d1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,668
  • Sep 20, 2007 4:54am Sep 20, 2007 4:54am
Quoting owkenobi
1,3800 could be a "cheap" entry point...
It's a confluence of a trendline, fibonacci levels and cycle (for timing).
We will see on the next six - nine days.
I understand this upper green trendline is in the weekly back to 2005, right?

If so we have hope for a close below the figure this week as to keep the cheap price alive. If this trendline goes this week (Bernanke today + Trichet tomorrow!!!!) then 1.40 will be the cheap price around here.

BTW, swiss also cracked the 1.18 figure today, which denotes the strong dollar bearish here. USDCAD showing teeth to parity. Either Bernanke's testimony is already price in, or we're having another leg to go.
  • #2,669
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:14am Sep 20, 2007 5:14am
Quoting de123
in my dreams,... when we will see 1.40, the ppl will panic and so it will form a great setup for levels between 1.40 and 1.50.
...panic seeling expected...
its just money
  • #2,670
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:27am Sep 20, 2007 5:27am
One of the big drivers last night was the talk re. Saudi dropping it's peg to the dollar. If they go, expect similar from the other big petro-dollar holders (who are currently sitting on 3.5 trillion USD reserves apparently). Euro is the ccy of choice, if they do.
  • #2,671
  • Sep 20, 2007 5:33am Sep 20, 2007 5:33am
if they lowered the rates, the us and the eur raises them,...eur/usd could became a carry trade....
its just money
  • #2,672
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:04am Sep 20, 2007 6:04am
Quoting de123
if they lowered the rates, the us and the eur raises them,...eur/usd could became a carry trade....
lol - as eur/usd has gone up ~75% in the last 7 years, that makes ~10%/year. Less a couple of % for interest rate differentials, I still think it could qualify
  • #2,673
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:11am Sep 20, 2007 6:11am
Quoting de123
if they lowered the rates, the us and the eur raises them,...eur/usd could became a carry trade....
Trichet was crystal clear: hike cycle "on hold"...
  • #2,674
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:14am Sep 20, 2007 6:14am
Quoting cesarnc
Trichet was crystal clear: hike cycle "on hold"...
i agree, but long term...he is trying to say...not now, but later for sure...
its just money
  • #2,675
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:17am Sep 20, 2007 6:17am
Quoting de123
i agree, but long term...he is trying to say...not now, but later for sure...
exactly. He said "on hold" (due to financial crisis) to make it clear "not finished" ("we know where we are going to")
  • #2,676
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:20am Sep 20, 2007 6:20am
Quoting cesarnc
I understand this upper green trendline is in the weekly back to 2005, right?
The green upper trendline is from 5/2006, I think it better fit fiber course.

Quoting cesarnc
If so we have hope for a close below the figure this week as to keep the cheap price alive. If this trendline goes this week (Bernanke today + Trichet tomorrow!!!!) then 1.40 will be the cheap price around here.

BTW, swiss also cracked the 1.18 figure today, which denotes the strong dollar bearish here. USDCAD showing teeth to parity. Either Bernanke's testimony is already price in, or we're having another leg to go.
1,40 cheap is possible. Technically it means that the green trendline is now supportive.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_d1_2.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #2,677
  • Edited 1:54pm Sep 20, 2007 12:35pm | Edited 1:54pm
NEW UPDATE EUR/USD

{ Link Removed }

Expected EU will going up to fibo 161.8 at price 1.4192 before revesal. From MACD we can see that the strength of EU to going up to that level is possible. Therefore I expected EU will overbought at closing price 1.4192 by this week or next week.

P/S - Sorry the explaination in Malay language on the chart.

GOOD LUCK
  • #2,678
  • Sep 21, 2007 2:12am Sep 21, 2007 2:12am
are we going to see 1.4200 today? just wait and see
  • #2,679
  • Sep 21, 2007 11:07am Sep 21, 2007 11:07am
Am I the ONLY one Short this pair?
  • #2,680
  • Sep 21, 2007 11:52am Sep 21, 2007 11:52am
Quoting AnneMarie
Am I the ONLY one Short this pair?
Probably not - I have a short eur/usd also - but many reports saying 1.42 cannot be ruled out.
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