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Aussie Pairs

  • #801
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:34pm Sep 17, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting MPP
well i'm short from 96.30, 92.30 is were my TL is so for me thats a good target, unfortunately i am out al day tommorow so will have to trail a stop to catch this puppy on the way down. i'll put my TP at 92.50 just to be sure.
I like that target price. I'm short from 96.13 so we shall see
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #802
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:28pm Sep 17, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I like that target price. I'm short from 96.13 so we shall see
I'm out but not short. I'm not sure where the crosses will go after tomorrow's Fed news and would prefer to take action thereafter. I think G/U (and by extension G/J) are oversold on the Northern Rock news, and stand to make the strongest comeback if/when the next carry rally extends.
  • #803
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:37pm Sep 17, 2007 4:37pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Trader KGB
I'm out but not short. I'm not sure where the crosses will go after tomorrow's Fed news and would prefer to take action thereafter. I think G/U (and by extension G/J) are oversold on the Northern Rock news, and stand to make the strongest comeback if/when the next carry rally extends.

i'm with you on the carry trade issue, i think Christmas will be a good one. Now i just need to figure out when the carries are likely to start again.

happy trading and see you all on the other side - wednesday.
  • #804
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:38pm Sep 17, 2007 4:38pm
Quoting Trader KGB
I'm out but not short. I'm not sure where the crosses will go after tomorrow's Fed news and would prefer to take action thereafter. I think G/U (and by extension G/J) are oversold on the Northern Rock news, and stand to make the strongest comeback if/when the next carry rally extends.
KGB,

I think we see eye to eye on this. Frankly nothing can save the carry except equities tanking. However the equities have been choppy at best which makes it hard to trade.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #805
  • Sep 17, 2007 8:59pm Sep 17, 2007 8:59pm
Quoting MPP
was long at 8200 and 8300 previously both SL hit for a loss (premiture trades). then had a few days of and now waiting for the retrace to 8300 to get back in.
There's your retract, I got off at 8420, almost time to get back on, but will wait till after News
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #806
  • Sep 18, 2007 10:44am Sep 18, 2007 10:44am
Looks like 97.50 region is still capping A/J
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #807
  • Sep 18, 2007 2:12pm Sep 18, 2007 2:12pm
Hope you guys didn't get in too heavy on the short side. This is why I felt neutral was safest pre-Fed, you can't throw out the off-chance that they completely crucify the already dying dollar. This and the TIC data, wow, USDX new all-time lows by Friday..
  • #808
  • Sep 18, 2007 2:21pm Sep 18, 2007 2:21pm
KGB,

Yeah this thing might hit 110 again by next week.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #809
  • Sep 18, 2007 3:48pm Sep 18, 2007 3:48pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
made 18pips LOL on AJ
AU was stopped out last week on the drop, and i hadn't had the chance to get back in, no at trading platfrom today so no new trades added yesterday.

was short on GJ, lost 10pips, should have set a TP at 100pips but went for 227.30 almost made it to.

still long on EU from 1.3800.

overall good week so far.

I've been studying Auslanco's system, looks like the 15m system works with the AJ to. any one know how to Back test an MT4 template.
  • #810
  • Sep 18, 2007 6:08pm Sep 18, 2007 6:08pm
Couldn't help myself...jumped on at 8330 and off again at 8505, I will get back on at 8400
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #811
  • Sep 18, 2007 10:34pm Sep 18, 2007 10:34pm
I got stopped out at break even, now to look for a new entry point...
  • #812
  • Sep 18, 2007 11:01pm Sep 18, 2007 11:01pm
could aussie go thru 8600?

mike
  • #813
  • Sep 18, 2007 11:39pm Sep 18, 2007 11:39pm
IMHO 90 by the end of the year.
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #814
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:12am Sep 19, 2007 5:12am
Quoting AndrewM
IMHO 90 by the end of the year.
I don't think so.

1. except USD 'weakness' at the moment, there really isn't anything else keeping the AUD up.
2. the Aus elections will see it fall quite a bit
3. also, "THE RBA has signalled that it will allow a market-induced credit tightening to counter inflation pressures from a strong economy as fear of tomorrow bites" instead of raising rates (www.news.com.au). Watch out below when that finally registers with traders.

AUD is more likely to go south soon stabilising around 80c.
  • #815
  • Sep 19, 2007 8:12am Sep 19, 2007 8:12am
I was bullish yesterday, but that appears to be too exuberant on my part. I see more downside now, on both a/j and a/u. gotta look at the charts to see what's what but I'd expect a fibo test of 92a/j and 82 in a/u
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #816
  • Sep 19, 2007 3:59pm Sep 19, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting surfer1
I don't think so.

1. except USD 'weakness' at the moment, there really isn't anything else keeping the AUD up.
Except for the significant IRD, gold & oil prices at record prices, etc..

Quote
2. the Aus elections will see it fall quite a bit
And the logic/analysis behind that is...?

Quote
3. also, "THE RBA has signalled that it will allow a market-induced credit tightening to counter inflation pressures from a strong economy as fear of tomorrow bites" instead of raising rates (www.news.com.au). Watch out below when that finally registers with traders.
This is old news. The credit tightening has been underway for nearly 2 months, Aussie fell and since has recovered >70% of that fall. That's a pretty significant vote of confidence by the global markets.

Quote
AUD is more likely to go south soon stabilising around 80c.
I don't see that happening either fundamentally or technically. FA-wise, you'd need falling commodity markets, a significant USD rally, and/or AUD rates coming down for that type of correction to occur. Technically, you'd need a break of 3 fib levels and the 200-day sma (nearly a complete repeat of the July/Aug rout). EURAUD and AUDCAD are both far from extreme levels. At most, perhaps at test of the 38.2 fib level at 8131 is possible, but I'd be surprised if even a technical pullback goes that far.. And if U/J starts to break out to the upside, forget it.

I'm not long (I wish..) but I'm not shorting it here either.
  • #817
  • Sep 19, 2007 4:48pm Sep 19, 2007 4:48pm
KGB,

Don't forget equities.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #818
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:14pm Sep 19, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

Don't forget equities.
Equities are safe thanks to the Bernanke put. Inflation rally underway.
  • #819
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:30pm Sep 19, 2007 5:30pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Equities are safe thanks to the Bernanke put. Inflation rally underway.
That's just 2 days, I need a lot more than that to feel safe. I'm cautiously long for a 80 pip haul but I think this will be a slow grind upward with perhaps a few retraces along the way.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #820
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:52pm Sep 19, 2007 5:52pm
Just my 2 cents from a longer-term perspective (fundamental) - I will probably play this idea via some longer dated puts -

First it was the US dollar, then it was GBP - both of which were due to sub-prime or some other mortgage related nonsense.

A quick look below the equator shows that AUD may well be the next currency to take a fall.

According to some very interesting stats from BNP Paribas - The Northern Rock case broke sterling’s backbone. Northern Rocks claims were only covered by 28% by deposits while 72% was down to wholesale funding. Australian banks are not much better.

Guess what, the housing inflation/bubble is a global phenomena and all the excess global savings will decline the same moment Asia allows its currencies to appreciate. In addition, Australian banks account for 21% of bank total liabilities declining from 37% a decade ago while funding 79% by tapping international capital markets or selling bonds to global investors. The ratios are even worse than those of Northern Rock.

Comes the next credit event the AUD will fall victim to it - the timing of course will be particularly challenging and likely require a catalyst.
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