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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #521
  • Sep 19, 2007 3:21am Sep 19, 2007 3:21am
So if the cable retraces to 2.0128, being the opening price for the day, then getting in short is a highly probable trade?
  • #522
  • Edited 5:14am Sep 19, 2007 4:24am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting SeekingLight
I am SO expecting EURUSD and USDCAD to reverse in the next 1 - 20 days

But we will see...could take a while longer perhaps, but I doubt it.
If I can't imagine < 1.0 USDCAD the most likely others can't either

(I figured this is still the best place to make seemingly mad claims that then unfold eventually)

Well, one way or another, I am keeping an open mind towards it...still got that wedge to take care of on EURUSD...
It usually takes not more than 24 hours for the market to digest any news. Considering that the key event yesterday took place after London's closing then we should wait till Europe goes out today. Inability for the euro to break and stay above 1.40 will likely lead to position squaring and perhaps to a quick short covering.
On a longer perspective any claim for a huge move till the end of the year doesn't seem as a "mad claim". Given the fact that most of the majors are way too short of their average annual ranges and that not much time left till the end of the year I would expect a huge range posted in october and it is more likely to be USD positive since most of the worst news for the buck are already in the market by now. So further lossess have to be limited and it is unlikely that the buck will lose so much more to be able to post a decent yearly range by extending its losses. I would rather bet on Cable to touch major trendline at around 1.83 and, if reached and broken fast, then I would switch the target even lower - toward the low of 2005 initially.
  • #523
  • Sep 19, 2007 4:31am Sep 19, 2007 4:31am
Quoting Blackinc
So if the cable retraces to 2.0128, being the opening price for the day, then getting in short is a highly probable trade?
The template #18.4 wich you are talking about, along with other templates based on ADTR could be effective for as long as the average daily range is not complete. The range on cable at the moment has already exceeded that average size and we have to apply something different as a strategy. Usually in such case I either look for a substitute currency pair with lower intraday range, for certain technical formations or just stay out of the market.
  • #524
  • Sep 19, 2007 4:42am Sep 19, 2007 4:42am
The EUR/USD has just changed the direction of the main move of the day which means that we can now look for an opportunity to apply template #18.4 to this pair.
  • #525
  • Sep 19, 2007 7:43am Sep 19, 2007 7:43am
Quoting Igrok
The template #18.4 wich you are talking about, along with other templates based on ADTR could be effective for as long as the average daily range is not complete. The range on cable at the moment has already exceeded that average size and we have to apply something different as a strategy. Usually in such case I either look for a substitute currency pair with lower intraday range, for certain technical formations or just stay out of the market.

Although the Pound has moved 200 pips now, when i posted it, it still had a daily range of only 60. I can't see how this is the average??

I saw the euro 18.4 and shorted it from 1.3981, stop at 1.3988
  • #526
  • Sep 19, 2007 8:04am Sep 19, 2007 8:04am
Quoting Blackinc
Although the Pound has moved 200 pips now, when i posted it, it still had a daily range of only 60. I can't see how this is the average??

I saw the euro 18.4 and shorted it from 1.3981, stop at 1.3988
Sorry, I got to see your post about Cable too late. The idea with EUR is correct. Also it could be CHF or CAD traded on the same template #18.4. Personally I would prefer swissy because it changed the direction of the main move of the day more times than the euro thus making stops level more reliable.

Blackinc, I would like to thank you for giving me such a pleasure. Seems you're one of a very few actually being able to get some of the core ideas of my method. I like it.
On the other hand, if any dummy had the ability to execute those strategies, I would've been out of business long time ago.
  • #527
  • Sep 19, 2007 9:12am Sep 19, 2007 9:12am
Seems it takes a while for USD bears to realize that yesterday's rotten news is no longer aplicable to today's market. Wishful thinking dies hard.
  • #528
  • Sep 19, 2007 9:51am Sep 19, 2007 9:51am
To those curious about different technical formations I would recommend to take a look at 5min USD/CAD chart where a classic single-diagonaled diamond is forming currently. So far it looks just perfect and almost ready for a texbook.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 min. CAD A0-FX.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #529
  • Sep 19, 2007 10:29am Sep 19, 2007 10:29am
Since the intraday target on the swissy has been reached while the euro stays relatively bid, I would say that there is still a probability to see 1.40 and slightly above to be printed on the screen some time today or tomorrow. Meanwhile swissy should make a completion of its diamond on dailies. The last pocket change and the milk money are likely to be thrown in by euro bulls in order to see such a great accomplishment.
  • #530
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:42pm Sep 19, 2007 5:42pm
Quoting Igrok
Blackinc, I would like to thank you for giving me such a pleasure. Seems you're one of a very few actually being able to get some of the core ideas of my method. I like it.
On the other hand, if any dummy had the ability to execute those strategies, I would've been out of business long time ago.
Your book and idea's have been such an eye opener to me. Almost 3 years trading small accounts now, and its only been your book that has made the forex make any sense. Enough sense to go to a much larger account, and seriously think about being able to trade for a living.

Its so enjoyable to sit back and watch the market do whatever, and when you recognise something be able to trade it knowing exactly where to put entires and stops. I've certainly got a ways to go, but i'm pretty sure i'm over the hump
  • #531
  • Sep 19, 2007 6:40pm Sep 19, 2007 6:40pm
Igrok does it looks like we have an diamond formation setting up on the cable 1hr chart.
It looks like it wants to break in the direction opposite to the move down
  • #532
  • Sep 19, 2007 7:29pm Sep 19, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting jotty
Igrok does it looks like we have an diamond formation setting up on the cable 1hr chart.
It looks like it wants to break in the direction opposite to the move down
No. I don't think so. Can see nothing specific there.
  • #533
  • Sep 19, 2007 7:39pm Sep 19, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting Blackinc
Your book and idea's have been such an eye opener to me. Almost 3 years trading small accounts now, and its only been your book that has made the forex make any sense. Enough sense to go to a much larger account, and seriously think about being able to trade for a living.

Its so enjoyable to sit back and watch the market do whatever, and when you recognise something be able to trade it knowing exactly where to put entires and stops. I've certainly got a ways to go, but i'm pretty sure i'm over the hump
I'm really glad to hear it. Good luck with your dreams.

BTW one more tip for the future. Yesterday, when the signals to enter the euro and the swissy came in, the ranges on the cable and CAD already were quite significant. So, it didn't make sense to wait and sit on those positions for longer. Because of that just a soon as swissy made it close to average, the position on the euro had to be liquidated despite its own intraday trading range wasn't very impressive. In other words it always make sense to watch other pair to make a right decision on the one that you actually trade. Sometimes it is also possible to make a trade on one pair using the signals coming on another one.
  • #534
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:56am Sep 20, 2007 6:56am
Quoting Igrok
I'm really glad to hear it. Good luck with your dreams.

BTW one more tip for the future. Yesterday, when the signals to enter the euro and the swissy came in, the ranges on the cable and CAD already were quite significant. So, it didn't make sense to wait and sit on those positions for longer. Because of that just a soon as swissy made it close to average, the position on the euro had to be liquidated despite its own intraday trading range wasn't very impressive. In other words it always make sense to watch other pair to make a right decision on the one that you actually trade. Sometimes it is also possible to make a trade on one pair using the signals coming on another one.
Thats what I had the most trouble with, deciding on a take profit point. I ended up with 30 pips because the risk:reward 1:3, but that was conservative. I hadn't thought of using the other pairs to get the "bigger" picture on what the market is doing, i'll remember that, thanks.

I'm getting comfortable with the intraday movements of the majors now, and I know you've talked about seeing similar patterns happen in a weekly time frame. And although i look at larger time frames to see the bigger trends and shapes, I don't look at them to see templates. Is it much the same as looking at intraday?

I think doing this will most likely aid my trading decisions, but i'm not sure if you apply the same rules intraday as you do intraweek?
  • #535
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:57am Sep 25, 2007 7:57am
Seems 1.1640 on swissy is guaranteed while 1.1520 is possible. To get lover than that is going to be a problem, I guess.
.9960 on CAD is guaranteed while .9890 is possible, but I doubt it will be able to sustain levels under the parity line.
Also looks likely that we have already seen the high of the week on cable.
  • #536
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:37am Sep 25, 2007 8:37am
Quoting Igrok
Seems 1.1640 on swissy is guaranteed while 1.1520 is possible. To get lover than that is going to be a problem, I guess.
.9960 on CAD is guaranteed while .9890 is possible, but I doubt it will be able to sustain levels under the parity line.
Also looks likely that we have already seen the high of the week on cable.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts which are quite similiar to mine at the moment - with only GBPUSD being the wildcard for me
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #537
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:53pm Sep 25, 2007 8:53pm
It seems that the historical low on the USDX has not been taken out yet. I don't have its data in real time, but yesterday's low at 78.21 was short of the 1992 bottom by just a couple of pips. Here it might provide some temporary (or even permanent) support to the buck in general. From my point of view, this level is worth a try by getting into some USD longs.
  • #538
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:21pm Sep 25, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting Igrok
Also looks likely that we have already seen the high of the week on cable.
So far this week the cable opened, made a high, fairly quickly made a low, then came back to the open price. Was it probable to sell at the weeks opening price and look to take profit at the average range of a week?
  • #539
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:59pm Sep 25, 2007 11:59pm
Quoting Blackinc
So far this week the cable opened, made a high, fairly quickly made a low, then came back to the open price. Was it probable to sell at the weeks opening price and look to take profit at the average range of a week?

In this case "open" price of the week has a lesser significance than the "high" price of the week. The stops will be too far from the position entry level if you take this trade.
  • #540
  • Sep 27, 2007 2:13am Sep 27, 2007 2:13am
With EUR/USD at 1.4160 and Cable at 2.0240 USD weakness looks overdone to me. Guess still all time low on USDX at 78.19 could be used as a base for taking some longs on the buck.
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