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  • #2,641
  • Sep 12, 2007 6:19pm Sep 12, 2007 6:19pm
Here is the weekly analysis so this could take some time to complete! The wedge is ripe for a break! You do get about 1 pip every 4 days in interest on the short so it all adds up in the end!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,642
  • Sep 12, 2007 6:25pm Sep 12, 2007 6:25pm
Bah to trends. Bah to fibs.

All TV financial analysts are saying that a US interest rate cut is expected, and IMHO the market is reacting to this as we speak.

Who here is a little more than slightly invested now? lol
  • #2,643
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:22pm Sep 12, 2007 9:22pm
Quoting Zoran
Here is the weekly analysis so this could take some time to complete! The wedge is ripe for a break! You do get about 1 pip every 4 days in interest on the short so it all adds up in the end!
I do believe there may be a scene of Fiber dropping like stone sooner or later when a lot of people close their long, maybe at 3900s or 4000s or 4100s or who knows when. But the majority here now are still believing the uptrend will continue. What makes you think there will be a totally trend reversal soon. All the way to 1.1600? :surprised How many years will it take? Can you explain more about your theory? I don't have a clue by just looking at your chart.
  • #2,644
  • Sep 13, 2007 4:32am Sep 13, 2007 4:32am
Quoting Hapipips
I do believe there may be a scene of Fiber dropping like stone sooner or later when a lot of people close their long, maybe at 3900s or 4000s or 4100s or who knows when. But the majority here now are still believing the uptrend will continue. What makes you think there will be a totally trend reversal soon. All the way to 1.1600? :surprised How many years will it take? Can you explain more about your theory? I don't have a clue by just looking at your chart.
OK, firstly if you look at both charts, the upper line is a resistance level. Price should bounce off that level by at least 100 pips. The inner pattern (two triangles) is a bearish harmonic pattern called an AB=CD, which indicates that it should fall many hundreds of pips when complete - possibly to the bottom support line.

Now, on the weekly, when you take the upper resistance line and the lower support line, both point up and converge to a point. This is called a wedge and is a bearish pattern (when pointing up). A break at about the 75% level (or less) of this pattern (to the downside and through the support level) is a good indication that this should fall back down to the bottom of the formation (1.1600).

Now this is just a technical analysis and these are basically high probability trades as the potential profit is huge compared to the risk. The stop-loss would only need to be above the upper resistance level. Eg. 40 pip risk (somewhere above 1.4000) for many hundreds and potentially over 2000 in the long term.

I'm not very good with time analysis but I would say back to 1.1600 in about two years. As for the news, that really doesn't concern me. It's already in the charts and there is a saying "Buy the rumour and sell the news", which could be the case with the interest rate cut.

Z
  • #2,645
  • Sep 13, 2007 2:28pm Sep 13, 2007 2:28pm
Up trend is kept. The target 1.3914 is made. The target above are 1.4038, 1.4122. The target below 1.3820, 1.3794, 1.3768, 1.3737, 1.3685. http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/993...ailyel5.th.gif

Up trend is kept. The target above are 1.3916, 1.3977, 1.4038, 1.4160. If we are go down, then the target below are 1.3855, 1.3794, 1.3784, 1.3733. http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/7202/eur4nk8.th.gif

Up trend is kept. 1.3916 is made. The target below are 1.3870, 1.3855, 1.3840. If we are go up, then the target above are 1.3901, 1.3916, 1.3938, 1.3952, 1.3976. http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/2267/eur1yp3.th.gif

Daily Analysis from Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
http://www.masterforex-v.su/
  • #2,646
  • Sep 14, 2007 6:05am Sep 14, 2007 6:05am
Thoughts for today?
  • #2,647
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:39am Sep 14, 2007 8:39am
After bad news for USD, why EUR keep falling down????
  • #2,648
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:44am Sep 14, 2007 10:44am
Падай, падай, землю радуй./Snow falls down for the grounds sake/
  • #2,649
  • Sep 14, 2007 11:46am Sep 14, 2007 11:46am
Quoting meromar
Падай, падай, землю радуй./Snow falls down for the grounds sake/
Your words are very nice, indeed, but also sibylline.

Anyway fiber is falling because we are at the end of one "weekly cycle" (you can see it on H4 timeframe) AND one "monthly cycle" (you can see it easily on D1 timeframe).
Furthermore 1,3900 level is a round number and it's very close to the top of the "rising wedge" (you can see the wedge easily on W1 timeframe).
Furthermore current "eight months cycle" (you can see it very easily on W1 timeframe) is still near but before the middle, according to timescale, and this is an aleatory cycle area.

LEVELS
I don't think fiber will fall too much. 1,3840 MIN - 1,3750 MAX in two or three days.

FOUNDAMENTALS
Foundamentals are still very bad for the dollar:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...602784365.html

INFERENCES
Technical and foundamental analyses are both pointing north to 1,4 and beyond. It's too early to talk about fiber collapse. It will happen but probably next year.
  • #2,650
  • Sep 14, 2007 12:56pm Sep 14, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting I'm
Up trend is kept. The target 1.3914 is made.
Love fibs.

Agree with 1.3914 met for potential wave 3 of 5 completion, corrective 4 possibly now in progress.

Big wedge for current gigantic wave 5 (13.11.2005 - today).

Likely endpoints are either 1.4044 or 1.4255. If not endpoints then at least a bigger reaction is expected at either.

Pleeeeeenty of confluence at 1.4044 and such a nice nr.

And as for the next few years 1.4581 will most likely not be exceeded...or will it!


First big weekly...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,651
  • Sep 14, 2007 1:00pm Sep 14, 2007 1:00pm
Here's the count for that 3 end.

I super-suck at EW, so don't take my word for it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,652
  • Sep 14, 2007 1:02pm Sep 14, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting owkenobi

LEVELS
I don't think fiber will fall too much. 1,3840 MIN - 1,3750 MAX in two or three days.

That'd be nice and exactly my "look for a setup" area as well =)



Thou shalt not short uptrends...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,653
  • Sep 14, 2007 2:24pm Sep 14, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting SeekingLight
That'd be nice and exactly my "look for a setup" area as well =)



Thou shalt not short uptrends...
It already came pretty close to hitting the 1.3840.
  • #2,654
  • Sep 16, 2007 2:35pm Sep 16, 2007 2:35pm
Looking for a short entry this week.
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  • #2,655
  • Edited 5:36am Sep 18, 2007 5:19am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting SeekingLight
Here's the count for that 3 end.

I super-suck at EW, so don't take my word for it
Update. First potential 4 end reached.

Confirmation above 1.39(not that I will enter there), target around 1.3950-85.

Then a bigger correction perhaps?

Depends on how wrong my count is

We could also still go looking lower for that 4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,656
  • Sep 18, 2007 5:24am Sep 18, 2007 5:24am
we most likely wont get any signal until after the fed annoucment. As all pairs seem to be just sitting there.
Just Trade It
  • #2,657
  • Sep 18, 2007 3:02pm Sep 18, 2007 3:02pm
Will it break the "rising wedge" upper resistance or not?
What do you think, guys?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,658
  • Sep 18, 2007 3:22pm Sep 18, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Update. First potential 4 end reached.

Confirmation above 1.39(not that I will enter there), target around 1.3950-85.

Wave 4 got confirmed, 1.3900 surpassed, minimum likely Wave 5 target already reached.

Can't say I didn't warn anyone ahead of time this once ;p

Boy, first time an Elliot Wave count was clear and worked out textbook ;p

Question now is....is that the end of III, corrective IV coming, then a final V high?

Heck, I dunno. I just know that if we correct back lower and then give a bullish setup it might not be the worst idea to go long one last time IF there is a SETUP ;p

(Had mine today at 1.3875).

What a rush all of that was.

I'm gonna retreat from this thread again now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_180907_wave_count_update.gif Size: 21 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,659
  • Sep 18, 2007 4:04pm Sep 18, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting SeekingLight
...

I'm gonna retreat from this thread again now...
Thank you, SeekingLight, to spread your thoughts here. Hope to hear you soon here again!

Hmmmmm.... it seem that I must learn Elliot Wave Theory...

Now I'm looking again for a good retracement and then going long until 1,45 (Jacko target).
  • #2,660
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:33pm Sep 18, 2007 8:33pm
looks like it has to retrace a lil bit

maybe 61.8

then proceed making a new high...

1.5XXX perhaps

perhaps a doubletop today
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