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EurGBP

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 14, 2007 3:22pm Sep 14, 2007 3:22pm
any one has any thoughts about the trend of eur gbp?
is this trend reversal or a transient candle stick?
  • #2
  • Sep 14, 2007 3:25pm Sep 14, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting goop
any one has any thoughts about the trend of eur gbp?
is this trend reversal or a transient candle stick?
It will reverse, because of the nature of the relationship between the two currencies. they will continue to revert to the mean, as they are highly correlated. The EG has ranged for several years now, just take a look at a weekly or monthly chart. this is a great pair for a range method.
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  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2007 3:27pm Sep 14, 2007 3:27pm
do you mean it will go down ? or might reach new highs before turning back.
  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2007 3:32pm Sep 14, 2007 3:32pm
Quoting goop
do you mean it will go down ? or might reach new highs before turning back.
Who knows what it will do tomorrow, that is randomness. However, It is a pretty safe probability that The price will not trend beyond the established range. I have no idea what it will do next week, but I do know if I use a ranging method, I will probably take the maximum from this pair. Of course, the are no absolutes in this business, only what we determine to be an edge.

Edit: my guess is that the further it gets from the mean, the larger the snap back, because of the correlation. It is like a rubber band being pulled tight.
  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:12pm Sep 14, 2007 4:12pm
i still use my trend following and able to scalp few pips even when this pair is ranging. But this recent upsurge really surprised me in a good way. I hope it will continue to the stars....
  • #6
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:53pm Sep 14, 2007 4:53pm
You can range trade this pair forever. Simply be careful with your trade size and leverage.

To loose money with EUR/GBP you would have to make a big effort.

I´m trying and loosing some money sometimes, but I´m trading it since two years ago, then I´m qualified to loose due to greed and self sufficiency.
  • #7
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:54am Sep 15, 2007 12:54am
well said . loosing money in eurgbp is rare as it always turns back - but might take months so be patient is the key word as far as eurgbp is concerned. recent northern rock's collapse is responsible for the surge but once the news fade and people realize that GBP 's rate is always higher than Eur it will turn back . look at 5 yr graph- clearly indicates that it has reached a peak and further gains are limited and unsustainable.
  • #8
  • Sep 15, 2007 5:48am Sep 15, 2007 5:48am
Quoting goop
well said . loosing money in eurgbp is rare as it always turns back - but might take months so be patient is the key word as far as eurgbp is concerned. recent northern rock's collapse is responsible for the surge but once the news fade and people realize that GBP 's rate is always higher than Eur it will turn back . look at 5 yr graph- clearly indicates that it has reached a peak and further gains are limited and unsustainable.
that sounds like a very risky strategy. It hit 0.56 a few years ago, it's unlikely to be heading back there anytime soon, though anything is possible.
  • #9
  • Sep 15, 2007 8:25am Sep 15, 2007 8:25am
In this case I think further advance beyond .6950 will be very difficult to sustain. The reason is not enough as goop said.

Anyway, we must cover our longs or shorts at this point, just in case an exception happen.
  • #10
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:00am Sep 16, 2007 5:00am
With a possible fourth wave correction low in place at 0.6831, a fifth wave should try to test up toward 0.6910-22 before succumbing to stiffer resistance and a wave (iv) correction.
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  • #11
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:34am Sep 16, 2007 5:34am
Quoting goop
well said . loosing money in eurgbp is rare as it always turns back - but might take months so be patient is the key word as far as eurgbp is concerned. recent northern rock's collapse is responsible for the surge but once the news fade and people realize that GBP 's rate is always higher than Eur it will turn back . look at 5 yr graph- clearly indicates that it has reached a peak and further gains are limited and unsustainable.
you must realise that it was not a collapse in fact its nowhere near a collapse, its just a typical panic from the public who do not understand how financial markets work, and sooner everyone realise it sooner things wil lget back to normal. that said though, if bank run continues then there might be some problems but then again it will be good target for takeover.
  • #12
  • Sep 16, 2007 8:07am Sep 16, 2007 8:07am
well said, i shouldn't have used the word 'collapse' . Its temp liquidity probs. As a resident of uk i know northern rock has problems but its still a successful corporation over yrs and has tons of assets . Cable is slipping due to panic from investors but soon will find a support as per fib level. prob 2.0025 [ 2yrs channel support].lets see.
  • #13
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:18pm Sep 17, 2007 1:18pm
any one seeing a bearish signal in eur gbp. shooting star?
  • #14
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:45pm Sep 26, 2007 7:45pm
i am short in eurgbp from .7012 as per this graph , any thoughts?
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  • #15
  • Oct 3, 2007 4:25pm Oct 3, 2007 4:25pm
short @0.6945
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  • #16
  • Last Post: Oct 8, 2007 2:10pm Oct 8, 2007 2:10pm
What do you guys think is gonna happen with eur/gbp in the next 24 hours ?just opened a position , sell at 0,6916 with sl 0,6945 and tp 0,6838. I based my opening on the fact that W1, D1, H4 and H1 are all on a bearish trend + PPI, IP and MP indicators + prediction of trade balance tomorrow show a rise in the value of the GBP meaning in EUR/GBP GBP goes up so EUR goes down.

What do you guys think ?
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