Elliott Wave Counting with EG

This is my counting.

http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3204/egnf0.jpg

Hello mrbola
Can you just post your wave count here as an attachment
like every one else here is doing ?

i just went over to your forum : and it is written in a language other than English ,
So its difficult to Understand what is being said ..

Also these are so many threads in there

Which chart are you referring to ?

just post the exact chart here if it's possible
that way we don't have to go hunting on that forum

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just upload your chart as an attachment

thanx alot

Ok noted. That counting is just my opinion and not referring to anyones. Ok its Gbp/Jpy 4hrs charts sorry

Just post your chart here

You will get some feed back from others in here ...
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Your forum looks great by the way ....

It's just that its in another language other than English
so its difficult to read and respond ...

This Here is the Usd/Chf

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Close the Gap ?............. !




- Double click on chart to enlarge.

Jobs Report Effect -

A Recession is on it's way !..................... !

For the Bears who profited hugely last Friday, Congratulations.

I myself failed, instead I lost a lot of pips.

I was in 5 nice minilot positions in the morning and all were in Profit.

Left for the Day ( 9 hrs ) to do other things and have travelled 300km in and came back an hour before US open.

Saw my chart and the break to LOWER level than previous then bounce up again. At the bounce I thought I better grab remaining pip gains and re enter later because 30 minutes before the drop ( had I known it ) I was invited to dinner. So I decided to close and just re enter when I come back.

It was the craziest thing to do and the biggest BLUNDER I made. I had it all figured out in the morning and I closed all trades that night just because of 1 indicator which was on a higher timeframe than what I shuld have been observing. I completely forgot to check all other timeframes specially the lower ones.

This cost me to miss that great opportunity.

Worse is when I came back from dinner I saw the huge fall. Guess what I did....

I tried to trade against the trend hoping to catch pips on the retracement.

And that does not end my blunders.....

I placed multiple mini lot orders on what I thought were retracements. costing me huge losses.

This are classic examples of the WORST BLUNDERS a trader could ever make.

Trading against the trend and Placing Compounded/Multiple Positions against the trend (trying to profit on the retracement). What I should have done was place tardes for the main trend even as it was making its way on the retracement. That would have placed me in a better better position.

It was like digging my own grave.

I am posting this here to show newbies if ever there are any, and also to put it on record that I made this terrible mistakes.

Currently I am back to my original Cash position. It was like I got wiped out of earnings I made for almost 2 weeks.

I have decided to close all my positions now. Luckily my broker allows us to close our positions on a weekend. I kow there is still a potential that GBPJPY will retrace up and that I may still be able to recover my losses in existing 4 minilots ( had already closed 2 other minilots right after market closed on saturday morning for a big loss ) and maybe even gain a little. But I would be taking a further risk of losing just incase GBPJPY decides to pursue the Bear move down.

Here is my currrent analysis for this pair:

Riding and Surfing the Waves of GBPJPY. Below is what I think would be potential route of this pair as it glides down the chart based on what I understand from EW.

This has already retraced 34%. In high trending periods, mini wave 4 (which we are in right now), is sometimes expected to resume main trend once it hits the 23.6% retracement.

And looking at the 5min chart, it is possibble that it may still not have finished the corrective phase of this mini wave 4. So there is still that chance to go up some more for the retracement.

Now, Let us see where this is supposed to be expected to retrace to (boy am I glad it is a weekend now and market is quiet and I have time to digest and study my counts again ).

If this is mini wave 4, then it should not be higher than mini wave 1 which ends at 231.76 So I can put my SL 10 pips above this. I believe we are in a mni wave 4 inside a sub wave 3 of C53 down

Worst case scenario is that it goes up and will not go higher than 231.88 which is the C51 down. This is most unlikely because C53 down is still not finished. So I believe we are still in mini wave 4 up inside a C533 down.

Price Projections Using FIB Extention tool of MT4
MAIN
C4 = 0 235.50
C51 227.40
C52 235.49
Fib Projections
100.0 227.40
161.8 222.40 min C53
200.0 219.28
261.8 214.15 min C55
300.0 211.02 may still go lower to end the ABC down from 251.07

C53 Wave
C52 = 0 235.49
C531 231.88
C532 234.12
Fib Projections
61.8 231.90
100.0 230.52
161.8 228.31 min for C533. at its end or a little beyond towards 200%, expect retracement for C534.
200.0 226.93
261.8 224.72 min expected for C535 or end of C53
300.0 223.30 end of C535 or C53 will bring us back up to C54

C54 is expected to retrace 23.6 towards 61.8, though normally till 50% only of C53. However, it may go beyond 61.8% but max price can only be till C51 which is at 227.40 Often wave 4 retraces by 38.2% which is quite near now.

Another view I thought I would adopt was the C=A thing. However, C532 was already a zigzag sa I expect C534 to have sideways movement whose end will be Lower than C=A. Thos should strengthen my decision to close all trades before the Aussie opening.

From the end of C54 whose max potential height is at 227.40, we could see this fall again towards 214.15 or 211.02 and could still be beyods or lower.

Note that this route or track could take a few months to finish. But this is how i think this will workout till it finishes this wave C down.

We have to remember that corrective waves can sometimes take very long to finish. We have to remember that C52 was a sharp zigzag. So by rule of alternation... we have to expect W54 to be a sideways correction which could take 2-4 weeks to complete or maybe even more. Ranging market for this pair.

Ok. back to being an intraday trader...

I just checked my position now and saw price move 4 pips up. I have not yet close my positions .. but I think I will do that in a little while. (On second thought ..... that may have been what brokers pays me for interest on this Long trades which I believe is up to 104 pips for my forward trades allowed to stay on for 1 month giving me 104 pips for the duration. that would be around 4 pips per day on each position. ( This brings to mind that I should not have closed my position in the Saturday early morning. I should have earned the forward points or positive pips on Saturday and Sunday mornings.) I could earn that too every day onward till Oct 9. But Monday opening could see a big jump either way which could increase my recovery if it is a bull jump even temporarily, but could erase all forward points gained and incurr additional losses if it was the Bears who jumped.

So..... I hope this will get me and us ready for the coming week.

EG

PS.

After reviewing my post before I click the post button, I thought I saw an opportunity to protect my current open positions till it retraces back up towards 231.88 for the C54, ( but that would mean I had to carry this burden to 228.31 or up to 226.93

That would be a long drag. Good if my account can afford to hold that drawdown for so long. But even then, I think it is prudent to practice the rule of cutting losses early and doing better the next time.

So .. with this I am closing all my positions now....regardless of the possibility of price still moving up.

I will plan from where I stand right now and wait around Asian session to maybe scalp. But Frankfurt and London Open would be very interesting and more during the US session.

mrloba....

I was just reviewing your chart and I noticed that you have labelled it as an impulse wave down which is in 5 waves.

Do you see this as the Big Wave A down of a big corrective wave and not just and ABC Corrective wave down ? Afterwhich we should see price move back up for a Zigzag as Big Wave B up ?

Now you got me thingking there.....

Looking at your chart again..... and my chart too.... I see that GBPJPY has exceeded expectations for the Wave C end around the area of 230.59.

@ last low being 219.41 onmy chart... this is already a little over 161.8%. .... basically looking more like this is Wave 3 and followed by wave 4 up which made a retracement of around 62%.

then if this is Wave 5 going down....then we have finished Wave 51 and Wave 52. .... almost the same projections as I was using for a 5 wave down on this last leg.

But to Look at it over all... I then now have more reason to go back to 251.07 and use it as my starting point to project the end of this 5 part impulse wave down Big Wave A.

We should then be looking at
208.81 as minimum end of Wave 5 down
203 as possible ambitious end before it goes up for the Big Wave B.

Thanks mrloban for this awakeining to another possible (most likely ) scenario.

whew.....

EG

PS

This would mean we get to 210 before 251 then before the year ends.

I am sending my early warmest congratulations to the winner of Auslanco's Trophy.

Gbp/Usd -
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Updated Longrer Term chart

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- Double click on chart to enlarge.

Is B allowed to be a 5 wave ?
(I truly don't know)

Is 4 not proportionally far too small?

What if we're only finishing a big 1 up with those 5 waves before a 2 down, 3 Uuuuuuuuuuuup?

Here is another look at the Gbp/Usd
for Today's price Movement
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Elliott Waves is not an exact science
10 people looking at the same chart data
will not have the same wave-count
simply because we don't all see the world the same way.
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So in the end
Trading is about your Averages !

Trading is more importantly about your ability to manage risk
of individual trades that you decide to take no matter
what wave count you think is currently happening .

Concentrate your efforts on understanding Risk to Reward
- Not Wave counts ! ....Learn to keep those looses small !
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Sorry.

I have to stop posting for awhile. I may not be helping people understand EW better with my current posts.

EG

The following charts are are what I look at for integrated Analysis on the GBPJPY.

EW is supplemented with various other systems and indicators.

I then create a separate clean chart for just the tools I want to see.

Currently, GBPJPY is in a range that allows it to go either way so I will attach charts illustrating 2 scenarios. From there , it is all up to you...

EG

GBPJPY Bullish Scenario Option

A High Probability of a Bullish Scenario for me on this pair is when Price Breaksout to the UPSIDE of all the MAs starting at the 1Hr Chart which probably is at the upperside of 234.50

Otherwise Price will continue to break all support levels as it goes down.

EG

Starting from the Monthly Chart

Bearish Scenario Option for GBPJPY - 1H to 15m

this is my weekly chart for the pair.
let's wait & see how it will unfold !?

I could not re attach my chart to the Bullish Post earlier.

EG

PS. Thanks ronnimar for your weekly chart.

OK... Here is my current count on GBPUSD.

I started on the monthly to get an overview and to check potential Limitations on retracements.

EG

Man, some of those charts looks like an old school nintendo game when it froze up. How the hell do you trade or even understand those charts?