Three Bar Scalp Method w Probability | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Scalp, scalp, scalp 5,689 replies

LUNC/USDT - Scalp Scalp Baby! 2 replies

3 Bar Fractal with mid-bar and bar on each side 11 replies

To scalp or not to scalp? (Images included) 18 replies

Pin bar, pin bar, pin bar 0 replies

Attachments: Three Bar Scalp Method w Probability
Exit Attachments

Three Bar Scalp Method w Probability

  • #21
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:31pm Sep 13, 2007 10:31pm
This is a great system..it reminds me of using the candle formations:

http://www.candlestickforum.com/stor...ldiers_web.jpgTHREE WHITE SOLDIERS

Recognition: Three-Day reversal pattern is easily identified by three large Bullish candlestick signals, an obvious pattern of buying.
Pattern Psychology: A strong downtrend or flat trading period with buyers overcoming the early sellers.






http://www.candlestickforum.com/stor...lack_crows.jpg THREE BLACK CROWS
Recognition: Three long black candles occur, after a strong uptrend, all of close to equal length.
Pattern Psychology: The uptrend has now reached levels where the sellers have started to step in. This persistant pressure by the Bears provides the potential for a strong downtrend.




You are just kinda taking advantage of that formation and adding some filters to it. Couple that with a good money management strat (such as 2% risk based on stop) and a decent win rate and maybe 4 good pairs...and my friend you have a solid system. I am playing with it now, only because i like simple. Ill keep up with you.
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #22
  • Sep 14, 2007 1:13am Sep 14, 2007 1:13am
Quoting NipthePips
This is a great system..it reminds me of using the candle formations:

http://www.candlestickforum.com/stor...ldiers_web.jpgTHREE WHITE SOLDIERS

Recognition: Three-Day reversal pattern is easily identified by three large Bullish candlestick signals, an obvious pattern of buying.
Pattern Psychology: A strong downtrend or flat trading period with buyers overcoming the early sellers.






http://www.candlestickforum.com/stor...lack_crows.jpg THREE BLACK CROWS
Recognition: Three long black candles occur, after a strong uptrend, all of close to equal length.
Pattern Psychology: The uptrend has now reached levels where the sellers have started to step in. This persistant pressure by the Bears provides the potential for a strong downtrend.




You are just kinda taking advantage of that formation and adding some filters to it. Couple that with a good money management strat (such as 2% risk based on stop) and a decent win rate and maybe 4 good pairs...and my friend you have a solid system. I am playing with it now, only because i like simple. Ill keep up with you.

Thanks
.
  • #23
  • Edited 1:34am Sep 14, 2007 1:24am | Edited 1:34am
GBPUSD -> would be fine for short but RSI > 50
USDJPY -> would be fine for long but RSI < 50

Edited (correction):

EURJPY long @ 159.56
SL would be @ 159.39 (25% of ATR + spread) we put it @ 159.17 below an S/R level on 5 min chart
USDCAD short @ 1.03502
SL would be @ 1.03632 (25% of ATR + spread) we put it 1.03700 above an S/R level on 5 min chart.
.
  • #24
  • Sep 14, 2007 7:09am Sep 14, 2007 7:09am
Quoting bullrock
GBPUSD -> would be fine for short but RSI > 50
USDJPY -> would be fine for long but RSI < 50

Edited (correction):

EURJPY long @ 159.56
SL would be @ 159.39 (25% of ATR + spread) we put it @ 159.17 below an S/R level on 5 min chart
USDCAD short @ 1.03502
SL would be @ 1.03632 (25% of ATR + spread) we put it 1.03700 above an S/R level on 5 min chart.
EURJPY SL hit -39 pips
USDCAD +40 pips so far SL moved to 1.03362
.
  • #25
  • Sep 14, 2007 7:47am Sep 14, 2007 7:47am
Quoting bullrock
EURJPY SL hit -39 pips
USDCAD +40 pips so far SL moved to 1.03362

Greetings,

Thanks for sharing.Please confirm whether or not you only enter your trades on the third candle. Happy trading.

forexnetworth
  • #26
  • Sep 14, 2007 7:56am Sep 14, 2007 7:56am
Quoting forexnetworth
Greetings,

Thanks for sharing.Please confirm whether or not you only enter your trades on the third candle. Happy trading.

forexnetworth
Yes. first candle is the base candle. Then look at the second candle. if close is higher than base candle we have the first part for long. Then look at RSI. If RSI at the socond candle (the closed candle) is above 50 we go long on th eopen of the third candle. Short is revers and RSI must be below 50.
.
  • #27
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:03am Sep 14, 2007 8:03am
what broker you use??



I want to try to mimic your success, to do so I want to have the same start of day time.
  • #28
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:08am Sep 14, 2007 8:08am
Quoting mcmep11
what broker you use??



I want to try to mimic your success, to do so I want to have the same start of day time.
Here is the problem. The analysis I have made is using data from Metatrader and RoyalFX.
The broker I am using to post the trades here is OANDA. You can open an unlimited demo account (never expires) and play there. Have fun and pipstatic day.
.
  • #29
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:16am Sep 14, 2007 8:16am
Quoting bullrock
EURJPY SL hit -39 pips
USDCAD +40 pips so far SL moved to 1.03362
I am sure our broker feeds use different time periods for the beginning of the day so this would explain this but for that EURJPY trade I was still successful


The day opened at around 158.89
25% my ATR was 54 Pips
so SL was 158.35
Target 1 159.97
Target 2 (Technically Still Open, but I closed at 159.40)
Target 3 (Same as above)



I tried to see if I could find the candle that your daily probably opened on and the only one i could find was about an hour or so after my open and it opened at .55. Still we have a difference in ATR, and you would of gotten stopped out for a larger loss i guess if you used the ATR i was getting.

I am considering using ATR14 (or maybe 50) for SL and ATR(100) for TP goals....that causes a bigger SL and a smaller TP...but makes the trade easier.
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #30
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:18am Sep 14, 2007 8:18am
Quoting NipthePips
I am sure our broker feeds use different time periods for the beginning of the day so this would explain this but for that EURJPY trade I was still successful


The day opened at around 158.89
25% my ATR was 54 Pips
so SL was 158.35
Target 1 159.97
Target 2 (Technically Still Open, but I closed at 159.40)
Target 3 (Same as above)



I tried to see if I could find the candle that your daily probably opened on and the only one i could find was about an hour or so after my open and it opened at .55. Still we have a difference in ATR, and you would of gotten stopped out for a larger loss i guess if you used the ATR i was getting.

I am considering using ATR14 (or maybe 50) for SL and ATR(100) for TP goals....that causes a bigger SL and a smaller TP...but makes the trade easier.
Good stuff. Certainly you need to find the proper parameters for yourself I just given here a method for discussion and see how it behaves in the future. The probability calculations were promising but that is just the beginning. The wole stuff including money management should be worked out here buy ourselves.
.
  • #31
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:26am Sep 14, 2007 8:26am
Quoting NipthePips
I am sure our broker feeds use different time periods for the beginning of the day so this would explain this but for that EURJPY trade I was still successful


The day opened at around 158.89
25% my ATR was 54 Pips
so SL was 158.35
Target 1 159.97
Target 2 (Technically Still Open, but I closed at 159.40)
Target 3 (Same as above)



I tried to see if I could find the candle that your daily probably opened on and the only one i could find was about an hour or so after my open and it opened at .55. Still we have a difference in ATR, and you would of gotten stopped out for a larger loss i guess if you used the ATR i was getting.

I am considering using ATR14 (or maybe 50) for SL and ATR(100) for TP goals....that causes a bigger SL and a smaller TP...but makes the trade easier.
I would recommend to calculate win/loss ratios. I never go below 1:1 but that is just myself.. For example if unit 1 is 1:1, unit 2 is 1:2 unit 3 is 1:3 than we have an average of 1:2.5 if the probabilities do work than we gonna collect loads of pips.
.
  • #32
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:27am Sep 14, 2007 8:27am
Quoting bullrock
Good stuff. Certainly you need to find the proper parameters for yourself I just given here a method for discussion and see how it behaves in the future. The probability calculations were promising but that is just the beginning. The wole stuff including money management should be worked out here buy ourselves.

I use basically the same money management for any system.


I determine if I consider the system "Conservative, Moderate, Agressive"--this partially includes what I believe is the proper amount of risk i should take for the system. For this system I use "Agressive Risk" and I alocate 20% of my total equity to it. (I usually trade more than one system...so in my demo, this would get 20%....if it was live, it would depend on what i find in the results of the demo and the other systems i might be trading)


Agressive risk means I risk 2% of my account every trade.

I have an excel sheet that basically does this. I put the total amount of equity in my account. How much percent I allocated. I choose the risk profile (Aggressive), then I put in the ATR value (or standard stop loss). It then calculate how many lots to trade to not risk more than 2% if I get stopped out. Tells me how much each pip would be worth etc. So whenever I enter a pos, my lot size changes based on the size of the SL.

Moderate risk is 1.5%

and Conservative is 1%.....thats how I have it set up.
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #33
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:32am Sep 14, 2007 8:32am
Example of what i was stating above

orange boxes are information you put in....yellow is standard label/note boxes....dark yellow is a neutral box...it just shows what your actual stop loss would be wit the multiplier. Grey box with orange writing are calculations that appear after information is entered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eXP.jpg Size: 30 KB
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #34
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:35am Sep 14, 2007 8:35am
Quoting NipthePips
Example of what i was stating above
Nip, are you still trading your boomerang strategy?
  • #35
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:37am Sep 14, 2007 8:37am
Quoting NipthePips
Example of what i was stating above

orange boxes are information you put in....yellow is standard label/note boxes....dark yellow is a neutral box...it just shows what your actual stop loss would be wit the multiplier. Grey box with orange writing are calculations that appear after information is entered
Good stuff...
.
  • #36
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:37am Sep 14, 2007 8:37am
Quoting billbss
Nip, are you still trading your boomerang strategy?
Always, but this thread isnt regarding that.
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #37
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:38am Sep 14, 2007 8:38am
Quoting bullrock
I would recommend to calculate win/loss ratios. I never go below 1:1 but that is just myself.. For example if unit 1 is 1:1, unit 2 is 1:2 unit 3 is 1:3 than we have an average of 1:2.5 if the probabilities do work than we gonna collect loads of pips.
yea thats a good idea...that would ultimately determine if the system is tradable eh?


Guess I forgot about that part
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #38
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:21am Sep 14, 2007 9:21am
NipThePips
I have checked your boomerang strategy... The probabilities I have calculated here close/rsi is working on a 4H chart as well. So if you wish you may try to adopt it and forward test a varioation of your method.

Have fun
.
  • #39
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:27am Sep 14, 2007 9:27am
NipThePips. It is a sweet idea to actually double up the TP level instead of the actual position size... Never thought about that.
.
  • #40
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:06am Sep 14, 2007 10:06am
Quoting bullrock
NipThePips. It is a sweet idea to actually double up the TP level instead of the actual position size... Never thought about that.
Lol glad we can vibe off each other...thats what these boards are all about.


I actually trade boomerang with conservative risk with only 10-15% of my equity live....only because it can have some bad streaks...but adding the 2 bar up/down filter might work.
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
0 traders viewing now