4x Made Hard 1.0

My cycles and geometry are setup for shorting euro and pound, but I'd like to resurrect my old system I dubbed 4x Made Hard. The original was in Excel and a lot more robust, but the live data was from the VT api and it was unreliable due to CMS data blackouts. I haven't decided if I'll start using MT data or not, but in the mean time, I'll just use MT straight up. So as to not be influenced by my other cyclical and geometrical methods, I'll only use this system on GBP/JPY and possibly some other non US based pairs.

Buy Limit at 230.36
Buy Stop at 230.88
Targeting 235.00 and then 239.40.

http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/9...ep10nu2.th.gif

Revised target is 232.5
Will look to short on a break of 228.0

Looking good. Currently at +80 and +30.

Raising stops on existing trades to 230.70 and 230.90.

Adding a buy stop at 231.69 and a buy limit at 230.65.

232.00 achieved. Raising stops and holding out for 232.5 and possibly 235.

Currently at +171, +119, +38.

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7...ep11dp4.th.gif

This system is nothing more than trading statistical ranges. The bell curve plotted out on the price chart.

Below is the standard bell curve.

http://www.frontiernet.net/%7Erhode/images/BELCURVE.GIF


68% (fib 34*2.. interesting) of the distribution of price for any given period will lie between the +-1 deviations. Knowing that, the idea is to wait until price is at or beyond the deviations from the mean puts the odds in favor of price returning to the mean. The odds increase as price reaches +-2 and beyond. Compound that concept to multiple frames and the ranges of oscillation can become pretty clear. No fancy indicators. Just ranges of price defined by statistical distribution. I use a combo of Standard Deviation Channels for the short period and Bollinger Bands set to 55 for the longer period outlook.

I also plot the bill williams fractals as straight lines and those provide areas to enter or add on. Again, not really a fancy indicator. Just a way to show recent high/low points.

Any trigger will do, really. Candle patterns, ma crossovers at the deviations, etc.

I'll explain more concepts as trades unfold.

That is a great idea. It kind of reminds me of Market Profile, only a lot easer to implement. Thanks for posting this thread. If I understand it right, it would work better in a ranging type market. Am I undertanding that correctly? How do you handle a trending market? Do you wait for price to return to the mean of the moving trend?

This works great in trending markets because once price hugs the mean at it's specific angle, it can stay there for months. Then it's just a matter of waiting for price to reach the bottom of an "up" channel in bull market or the top of a "down" channel in a bear market. Also, using multiple time frames gives price ranges for smaller moves. So no matter whether the market be trending or flat, there is always a trade if you don't mind going to smaller or larger frames depending on the trade setup preference. Moreover, trending on one frame might be flat on another and vice versa.

BTW, Market Profile is an excellent study. I just don't care for the chart style. In fact, a lot of my setups come from market profile setups.

All I can say is wow, what a great concept... I am going to look closer at this on the weekend. This looks like it will take some math, I am excited..

So the mean of price is a moving mean, and is dynamic?

Are your charts before this post of this approach?

Also, if it is indeed a moving mean, and you are using a STD dev channel, what is your periods of sumation for the moving mean? I hope I am saying right.

I think I see what you mean. pun intended... from metaquotes
Standard Deviation Channel

Standard Deviation Channel is built on base of Linear Regression Trend representing a ussual trendline built between two points on the price chart using the method of least squares. As a result, this line proves to be the exact median line of the changing price. It can be considered as an equilibrium price line, and any deflection up or down indicates the superactivity of buyers or sellers respectively.

I hope you don't mind my asking questions about your method here. It just is very facinating to me...

I don't mind at all. BTW, the concepts work whether you use channels, bollingers, regression ma's, or whatever. I like the channels because they give an idea on direction. I also use the 55 period bollingers because the standard setting for bollingers is too "rubbery". Although, even set to 55, the squeeze still comes into play. Just not as often or as drastic.

It doesn't matter how many bars are used within reason because price doesn't ever stay in one place. And since it moves, it leaves a trail of data that can be used to determine its statistical range of movement. In other words, the period really only determines the sample size. 30 bars, 60, bars, whatever.

woohoo!

Trailing stops triggered. booked 135, 71, and -6.

New entry at 231.83. Buy stops at 232.35 and 232.61.
Target is 235.00

-30

Picture is clear now. I missed the breakout entry, but I think I can still get in with decent r/r. Sell stop at 230.99 sell limit 231.47.

edit: sell limit 231.40
edit: targets are 230.45 and then 227.00

Absorbing some minor pain, but things are in order. Weekly, Daily, 4h, and 1h are all down. Price is now coming off of the top of the 4h and 1h channels which is a home run sell signal.

Sell stop at 231.58

Thats what I like ..... nice unclutered charts.........
maybe you should have called this 4x made absurd......

but seriously if it works for you then I'm all for it...I just can't make any sense ou of your charts.

It is really very simple. In fact it could not be simpler. Just trading to the mean of 2 std dev as a general rule. It does require a little math, so I can see why you think it is hard and "absurd".

I find this analysis fascinating!

How do you get your charts looking the way they do?

What time frame do you use most for analysis and trade entry?

I am very eager to learn more about this!

It ain't for everybody. What do you use?

What settings for the std dev channel do you use?