• Home
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 6:02am
Menu
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 6:02am
Sister Sites
  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Broker Challenge "NDD/STP" vs. True "ECN" and "Mkt Mkr" broker talk 46 replies

Dealing with "Invalid Price", "Requote", "Server Busy" in MT4 3 replies

Tired of making money!!! 17 replies

Reading......and reading....... 21 replies

  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
Tags: I'm tired of reading "I'd have made more but I made mistakes."
Cancel

I'm tired of reading "I'd have made more but I made mistakes."

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Jun 24, 2011 8:14pm Jun 24, 2011 8:14pm
  •  tdion
  • Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
Stop blaming personal mistakes for the fact that the market moved against you. It's as if the minute something didn't go to plan, suddenly you miscounted the Gann Movements or put the Fib on the wrong peak and valley.

Just suck it up and say "nobody really knows what they are doing...." ;-)
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:19pm Jun 24, 2011 8:19pm
  •  nubcake
  • Joined Oct 2009 | Status: >Apocalypto< for Deputy PM | 2,919 Posts
^this
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:44am Jun 25, 2011 1:44am
  •  Incrediblle
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2011 | 1,831 Posts
Quoting tdion
Disliked
Stop blaming personal mistakes for the fact that the market moved against you. It's as if the minute something didn't go to plan, suddenly you miscounted the Gann Movements or put the Fib on the wrong peak and valley.

Just suck it up and say "nobody really knows what they are doing...." ;-)
Ignored
Nope thats not true....
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
 
1
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:34am Jun 26, 2011 11:34am
  •  Expert44
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2011 | 146 Posts
I am tired of this saying too for I used to say this too.
One way to remove this mistake is stay connected to the market if a trade is open. Otherwise use some indicator with signals or an EA for help. Usually when a trade is going very good, beware something bad is about to happen.
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:18pm Jun 26, 2011 7:18pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,096 Posts
To state the obvious, nobody can forecast the market with 100% accuracy. Hence there will always be losing trades, no matter now experienced or skilled one is. It only takes one large order to upset even the 'best' technical strategy.

In every situation, if you look long enough, and from enough different timeframes and angles, you'll find at least a dozen valid TA-based reasons to buy, and a dozen reasons to sell (e.g. one trader might be entering what he sees as a strong uptrend, while another sees the same chart as being overbought). That's what makes any market work: willing buyer, willing seller. The proficient trader is somehow able to weigh up these reasons, and build an on-balance profitable system around them.

Once you have a trading plan with an edge, the only "mistake" you can make is to trade contrary to your plan. Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk.

David
 
1
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:52pm Jun 26, 2011 7:52pm
  •  Expert44
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2011 | 146 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk.

David
Ignored
This is a golden expression.
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:12pm Jun 26, 2011 9:01pm | Edited 9:12pm
  •  ha-pattern
  • Joined Sep 2008 | Status: hardcore chartist | 2,173 Posts
IMO, to understand the message thus far --

Quoting hanover
Disliked
To state the obvious, nobody can forecast the market with 100% accuracy.
...In every situation, if you look long enough, and from enough different timeframes and angles, you'll find at least a dozen valid TA-based reasons to buy, and a dozen reasons to sell
Ignored
Combining these apparently contradictory statements:
If each reason is 100% valid, regardless of what % of the market it calls, and includes enough room for the risk each reason needs, then its trade will work.
Also, if there are that many easily obtainable reasons for every trade, then there also exists, as has been stated, a well-balanced approximation across them that captures the market's true movement. This super-validity, likely a spotty thing, can at times approach HGdom.
Quoting hanover
Disliked
It only takes one large order to upset even the 'best' technical strategy.
Ignored
A chart study's job is to include all bars, whatever the size.
In light of the above, however, this is not often practical.

Quoting hanover
Disliked
Once you have a trading plan with an edge, the only "mistake" you can make is to trade contrary to your plan. Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk.
Ignored
If you lose when trading contrary to your plan, then you made a mistake. If you lose through the market entering the risk the trade took into account, then you made an honest trade and lost.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jun 27, 2011 1:56pm Jun 27, 2011 1:56pm
  •  smittens4212
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 710 Posts
Quoting tdion
Disliked
Just suck it up and say "nobody really knows what they are doing...." ;-)
Ignored
I've seen multiple threads/posts from you along these lines, and as always, I disagree completely.

Quite tired of reading it, too.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:23pm Jun 27, 2011 3:23pm
  •  traderjai_inhi
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: I'm just saying... | 1,153 Posts
Quoting Incrediblle
Disliked
Nope thats not true....
Ignored

You really are incrediblle... and not in a good way!

 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:11pm Jun 27, 2011 4:11pm
  •  tdion
  • Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
You're right... the underlying theme is that any TA system does not carry a measurable edge. I will never retract this statement. I have several systems that were extremely profitable for years, and suddenly blew up without warning.

Just read this blog: http://www.grailtrading.blogspot.com/

I remember when Soultrader (the author of the blog) was selling this system for $5K / pop. Now it is on the scrap heap of systems that had a nuclear meltdown.

And for the record, I never broached the subject of how I was tired of people blaming themselves for bad trades. That's a new one for me.

Quoting smittens4212
Disliked
I've seen multiple threads/posts from you along these lines, and as always, I disagree completely.

Quite tired of reading it, too.
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jun 28, 2011 2:21pm Jun 28, 2011 2:21pm
  •  smittens4212
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 710 Posts
I just mean the 'nobody really knows what they're doing' part. Clearly there are many traders who 'know what they're doing'. They may not be right 100% of the time, but you wouldn't call a team who wins 8/10 games a loser, would you? I agree that most don't know what they're doing

Quoting tdion
Disliked
You're right... the underlying theme is that any TA system does not carry a measurable edge. I will never retract this statement. I have several systems that were extremely profitable for years, and suddenly blew up without warning.
Ignored
Yeah, I believe that the conventional patterns and indicators people tend to think of when referring to technical analysis don't possess much edge.

Unfortunately, the way I think most approach TA is that they are taught that there are certain chart patterns or indicators which say you should take _____ action when _____ condition occurs. However, they don't have any grasp of the underlying market action that is causing some pattern or price action to form, or some indicator to... uhh, indicate? One of the easiest examples I can think of is trying to sell an overbought stoch or RSI in a strong uptrend-- you're going to get burned, because for the most part all those indicators do is measure price relative to where it has been in X period. Tends to work well in a ranging market, gets slaughtered in a trending market.

I think one of the best things a new trader who wants to study the charts could do is to learn some of the basic repeating patterns; double tops, triangles, wedges, etc. and focus equally as much on when they don't work as when they do work. I think you'll find that there are a lot of 'failed patterns' that are basically patterns of their own and can be traded just as well, if not better than conventional patterns, and a lot of that has to do with the way the markets flow.

Take triangles for example: you are supposed to trade the breakout of one of the diagonals. But look at some examples of uptrends and triangles; they tend to actually dip below the bottom diagonal a lot of the time before shooting up, and a conventional TA trader is going to try to sell that break. It won't work. Maybe there is stop hunting for the weak hands who got long at the base of the triangle, maybe there's been a respite in buyers and the big orders are looking to get long at a discount price. Whatever it is, there's always a reason why any particular pattern forms, and that's what is most important-- not the pattern itself. The pattern is just showing you where potential entries are.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Jun 28, 2011 2:50pm Jun 28, 2011 2:50pm
  •  Craig
  • Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Blah blah blah | 1,410 Posts
Evidence: My TA curve fit system blew up.
Conclusion: Nobody knows what they are doing.

I'm sure there is a fallacy in there somewhere, I just can't quite put my finger on it.

Inserted Video
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:17pm Jun 28, 2011 3:17pm
  •  tdion
  • Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
Craig, the minute you can show me WHY your system accurately predicts it's conclusions, come back to the thread.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:02pm Jun 28, 2011 3:29pm | Edited 4:02pm
  •  Craig
  • Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Blah blah blah | 1,410 Posts
LOL *clutches head in dismay*

1. You're deliberately missing the point, you are the one who made the daft assertion in your original post, it's up to you to prove it.
2. Nobody is answering money questions in a public forum, whether this is because they can't or won't is immaterial from your point of view.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:13pm Jun 28, 2011 4:13pm
  •  Razzle
  • Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Member | 336 Posts
Quoting tdion
Disliked
Craig, the minute you can show me WHY your system accurately predicts it's conclusions, come back to the thread.
Ignored
Systems dont necessarily need to predict
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Jun 28, 2011 5:35pm Jun 28, 2011 5:35pm
  •  tdion
  • Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
No??? Well this is news to me...

Quoting Razzle
Disliked
Systems dont necessarily need to predict
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jun 28, 2011 6:05pm Jun 28, 2011 6:05pm
  •  BackTestDummy
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 246 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
Once you have a trading plan with an edge, the only "mistake" you can make is to trade contrary to your plan. Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk. David
Ignored
Yep, that's the one.
I've got my pips - go get yours!
 
 
  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • I'm tired of reading "I'd have made more but I made mistakes."
  • Reply to Thread
0 traders viewing now
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About FF
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Media Kit
  • Blog
  • Contact
FF Products
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Trade Explorer
FF Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow FF
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

FF Sister Sites:

  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Forex Factory® is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2023