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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,761
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:00am Sep 6, 2007 11:00am
Quoting ashes
A long position on eur/usd would have been a winner today.
Unfortunately I didn't notice clear indications to go long.

What would I have had to notice?

MACD lower high?

Thank you.

Hi ashes,

after the fact it is really easy to see what we could have noticed....so here it goes:

1. the 89 was starting to turn upwards, w/price above the MA (should signal us to look for longs)

2. If we considered market motion...we should have expected price to retrace to the 200 & had an order to enter placed there (this is in anticipation of upmove continuation).

3. The hourly chart shows price moving up and away from the moving averages (especially after 3AM EST).

4. Nadia had it exactly right....she was in w/the initial move yesterday.

Ok, with all that said....let me say the market has been very difficult to watch tonight/this morning. The signs are very obvious now, but really weren't so while they were happening (or I'm just out of it today). I caught a bunch of pips on the move ONLY because of Phillip's 5 min. system. While the signs on the 4 hour were there, I just didn't trust them enough today. You did great by not getting involved in this market today...it's been tough, choppy trading overall. Lots of opportunity...but lots of risk...would have had a hard time figuring my stop for a long based on 4 hour entry....and most likely would have kept it too tight to let the trade develop b/c of the risk environment).

Happy trading!
Pips
  • #6,762
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:00am Sep 6, 2007 11:00am
Usually those forums engines contain a mail notification feature using which you just subscribe to the threads you want (just like FF has).
However that would require people to be able to join your forum. And you moderate those subscriptions.
Anyway, I believe you when you say there is plenty of work to be done first and it is always better to focus at one thing at the time.
But it is very nice initiative and I am sure it will work great. Thanks again!

Endy

Quoting Palmer

endy:

Yes, that is in the back of my mind but you kind of answered the question already. It's taking up a lot of time to get the website up to speed. Posting to the blog really doesn't take up much time at all. As far as the email alerts go, that just means that I have to keep up with an email list and for those that might want to de-subscribe I have to take care of that also, I think. There may be an option where the forum takes care of that by itself. I have to check that out. Some of my 'chores' have been lacking the last several days but I'm guessing that once the website is 'complete' the time factor to put aside for it should go down. I'd like to get the site where it needs to be and then consider the email for the blog. I like to finish up one project before starting another if you know what I mean..Thanks for the input though....
  • #6,763
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:10am Sep 6, 2007 11:10am
Quoting james231287
Hi everyone. I just papertested my first trade using this system.. and it was a loser. Can someone expliain why i thought this was a quick, aggressive reversal on the MACD.(or was i just very unlucky) I went short and got stopped out at about 45pips. Please see attachment.

thankyou for your responses.

James
Hi James,

I can't really make out your chart...sort of blurry. But, I think I know what you did. I went short during the candle b/c of interest rate staying the same...price bounced to the MA and then retreated right back up (I think you entered at the close of the candle). Not absolutely sure where you entered, but I believe you got caught by a whippy market that is more inclined to climb..and probably should have either anticipated short at resistance of ~2.0273 or waited for price to close below the MA's. I got lucky, and stopped at BE...then went long w/retest of 89 on hourly....The market was tough today...really important for us to pay attention to MA's and support/resistance levels.

Sorry about your first trade result.

Pips
  • #6,764
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:26am Sep 6, 2007 11:26am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi James,

I can't really make out your chart...sort of blurry. But, I think I know what you did. I went short during the candle b/c of interest rate staying the same...price bounced to the MA and then retreated right back up (I think you entered at the close of the candle). Not absolutely sure where you entered, but I believe you got caught by a whippy market that is more inclined to climb..and probably should have either anticipated short at resistance of ~2.0273 or waited for price to close below the MA's. I got lucky, and stopped at BE...then went long w/retest of 89 on hourly....The market was tough today...really important for us to pay attention to MA's and support/resistance levels.

Sorry about your first trade result.

Pips
Just want to say thankyou for your quick response. I am new to forexfactory and having read through this thread alone. i can see you guys have a great community here, offering great advice and constructive criticism I hope to be the one helping others out soon enough. But this is a great place to learn.

Wishing you all the best of luck with fourthcoming trades.

Also, great system phil!

James
  • #6,765
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:34am Sep 6, 2007 11:34am
Hi Palmer -

great effort on the website, it took me a while to find all the info through the threads but I must say that your blog makes it so much easier. I can't download lesson 4 off your site - is it my end or your end? Well done to all in this forum - and of course to Phillip......

InForTheHaul
  • #6,766
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:56am Sep 6, 2007 11:56am
Thank you, bil and pips, for your explanations.
Difficult market, indeed.

It appears as if I generally should include the 1h chart a lot more.

I should give more emphasis to the direction of the ma's, like the sma 89 today.

Also the resistance of the sma 200 has been a point, I see that now.

There has been a little timewindow when one should have entered long, round NY market open, but at that time there was no proof that the sma 200 resitance would hold ... at least no proof to me .

anyway ... more opportunities to come.

Greetings
  • #6,767
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:57am Sep 6, 2007 11:57am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 06Sept2007.zip   755 KB | 1,509 downloads
  • #6,768
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:08pm Sep 6, 2007 12:08pm
InForTheHaul:

Thanks for pointing that out. Hmm, I thought I loaded that one up. I'm away from the server connected machine so I'll take care of that this evening.

Pips: send him a lollipop

E$ Flirting with the 3700 level again....
  • #6,769
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:23pm Sep 6, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Thanks for that phil its good listening

JAmes
  • #6,770
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:34pm Sep 6, 2007 1:34pm
Palmer,

Looked at your website and listened to the famous post that you have on your sig. Great...wonderful...thanks!!

Now I can start to papertrade and understand this mother!!!

Thanks again,

BearPaw
  • #6,771
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:50pm Sep 6, 2007 1:50pm
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Phillip Nel- Daily Wrap Up- 6Sept2007- written copy.doc   7 KB | 609 downloads
  • #6,772
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:22pm Sep 6, 2007 4:22pm
InForTheHaul:

Lesson 4 is now on the site where it is supposed to be. Did pips send you your lollipop yet?

I gotta run...about three miles, back in a few...
  • #6,773
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:26pm Sep 6, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting OldDog
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English.

Thanks much !! you deserved a sweet and sour lollipop !!
  • #6,774
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:50pm Sep 6, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Palmer
InForTheHaul:

Lesson 4 is now on the site where it is supposed to be. Did pips send you your lollipop yet?

I gotta run...about three miles, back in a few...
I ate the lollipop so I'd have enough energy to run today...
  • #6,775
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:18pm Sep 6, 2007 5:18pm
Hey Palmer...& all those that monitor the charts during Asia!

First...All the charts are messed up! There's nothing there right now (OK they aren't all messed up...but most are).....Now I only wish I had know that Japan is hit w/a Typhoon right now and many are without power...My news plug-in says the Japanese market is not functional right now...

Also...who knew today was a market holiday in Aussieland?

No volume...wander aimlessly currency pairs...wander aimlessly

I'll see you all tomorrow! Have a nice evening/day!

Pips
  • #6,776
  • Sep 6, 2007 6:18pm Sep 6, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting ashes
A long position on eur/usd would have been a winner today.
Unfortunately I didn't notice clear indications to go long.

What would I have had to notice?

MACD lower high?

Thank you.
I did call the long (Ref thread #6756), but what I saw was neutralization. This is where the MACD on the 1hr chart goes flat while the lower level time frame, in this case, 15 minute floats towards the waterline, but does not penetrate it. The theory is that it will continue up as far as the initial rally from the point of the break upwards. If it goes up 100 pips, retraces 25 pips during the neutralization, it will continue to rally back the 25 plus an additional 75 pips above the original high. In this example, it only went to 1.3709, but I would have been happy with that with only a 20 pip risk. Unfortunately, I do not trade "big" news events like rate announcements and was at work anyway.
This really is not a 4hr strat, but Phillip's method did signal a TC at the 0800 EST signal, so either way, it would have been a good bet to take on. Hope some of us walked away with a few long euros today.
  • #6,777
  • Sep 6, 2007 6:19pm Sep 6, 2007 6:19pm
Thanks pips...I was about to post that the 4hr $Yen has absolutely no rhythm right now, Rhythm Strength = zero, zip, zilch, nada...price is hovering around the 89 like a hog in slop..blah.

The E$..This is the daily chart. Look at the dips and the Rb's at the bottom of the channel...like clockwork so far. The current price action is hovering around the 89 with the Rb still 'in play'. The news today got me thinking...there were no surprises and the E$ continued on up. Tomorrow the payrolls come out, even if there is a 'surprise' and the price pulls back, the daily trend is up up up so we may just see a pause with price and continue to the upside. Everyone is 'spinning' that the Fed will lower rates by .25 and maybe even .50. Is this 'already priced in the market' like the news people say? If so, wouldn't price be stalling right about a few weeks ago? Anyway, this is a little out of bounds here but I'm thinking that if there is an unexpected figure tomorrow for the job numbers and the E$ takes a tumble back down to the 3600 area or so I may just reload to the upside...period. I will wait for MACD confirmation or a bounce off support but the daily bull is running hard now. I'm long form around 1.3660 per a 1hr entry and I'm hoping that holds through the news. If it doesn't I plan on jumping back in long at the first opportunity. I didn't have time to post on the blog, too wrapped up in work right now. Looks like I will be out of town all next week. Either way, keep an eye on the news....

Trade well...
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  • #6,778
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:02pm Sep 6, 2007 11:02pm
thanks mike wong for the e-book
still in learning curve
  • #6,779
  • Sep 7, 2007 1:59am Sep 7, 2007 1:59am
Quoting OldDog
For those who have difficulty understanding spoken English.
Thanks.
  • #6,780
  • Sep 7, 2007 2:45am Sep 7, 2007 2:45am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
I know today is non farm payroll and many are staying out.. However, looking at the charts, the GBP is currently priced near the 200sma and the trendline forming a possible support level, a long trade is highly possible. Anyone taking a long here? I'm still deciding whether should i position myself for a long because the NFP is most likely has a negative impact on the USD and it might catalyst the GBP to skyrocket..
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