USD/JPY Discussion | Page 238 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,741
  • Sep 6, 2007 3:17am Sep 6, 2007 3:17am
hallo every one who can help me..., i am a newby in this bussiness. I just bought usd-jpy @ 115.46 today, how is the chance for me to have a take profit and could some one give me a suggestion how much do i have to set the take profit.
thanks again....
  • #4,742
  • Sep 6, 2007 3:17am Sep 6, 2007 3:17am
Doing my morning look through the threads that I follow I got stopped in this one by Dove´s post # 4685 and its follow ups.

To be able to enter, remain in the trend and exit as Dove has done is trading of the highest order and he has challenged us to work out how he does it.

There are some clues.....this is trend trading, not pivot trading and multiple time frames are used, plus MAs and Linear Regression....I already use the former, but have no experience with the latter - so I´d better start learning.

As I use the MT4 platform, so far I´ve limited myself to their TFs and have the 4 hr, 30 min, 5 min and 1 min as my basic setup.

Looking at Dove´s Sell from 116.40 at 20:00 yesterday, I can see a clear entry off my 1 min chart after the close of the 20:01 candle at 116.41 under the yellow 8 EMA. The failure at 19:44 to break up above the prior highs, followed by the lower high were the alert and the close under the 8 EMA the trigger.

I´ve attached a 1 min screen shot.....next to work on staying in the trend....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 4 1m 2020.gif Size: 13 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,743
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:00am Sep 6, 2007 4:00am
Quoting Islander
Looking at Dove´s Sell from 116.40 at 20:00 yesterday, I can see a clear entry off my 1 min chart after the close of the 20:01 candle at 116.41 under the yellow 8 EMA. The failure at 19:44 to break up above the prior highs, followed by the lower high were the alert and the close under the 8 EMA the trigger.
Yes but how often does the 1-min close below the 8 EMA and then retrace? Too often to be of much value, you'd be heavily whipsawed.
  • #4,744
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:31am Sep 6, 2007 4:31am
So after looking for an entry around the prior highs and drilling down to the 1 min chart to trigger an entry its now about staying in the trend so I¨d normally move out to the 5 min or 30 min - to keep some detail, I´ve shown the 5 min.

I´ve added the standard MT4 LR channel and so far I cant see how it helps, so I´m back to my MAs and standard price levels - the 00s.

The 200 EMA acts as resistance....but its also the 116.00 level, then there are 3 attacks on the 115.00 level . Now here I´m lost - for me I´d be out after the 2nd failure to break the 00 number - as its an important number, I´d have used the 8EMA (yellow) which would have given an exit at say 115.18 at 11:50 - this is just as the European Traders are closing out for the day and going home.

I can not at present see why Dove waited another 4.5 hours and then exited just after a lower high.....anyone got any ideas?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 5 5m 1950.gif Size: 16 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,745
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:44am Sep 6, 2007 4:44am
Quoting Trader KGB
Yes but how often does the 1-min close below the 8 EMA and then retrace? Too often to be of much value, you'd be heavily whipsawed.
Agreed, I only drill down to this level whan there is supporting analysis from a higher TF - here the prior highs - there was a small attempt on these - just sufficient to take out some close stops?? - that was the alert to start watching closely....this then allows a fast entry with a tight stop above the prior highs and IF the trade goes my way, I can then manage it via the 5 min or 30 min
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,746
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:47am Sep 6, 2007 4:47am
Quoting Islander
So after looking for an entry around the prior highs and drilling down to the 1 min chart to trigger an entry its now about staying in the trend so I¨d normally move out to the 5 min or 30 min - to keep some detail, I´ve shown the 5 min.

I´ve added the standard MT4 LR channel and so far I cant see how it helps, so I´m back to my MAs and standard price levels - the 00s.

The 200 EMA acts as resistance....but its also the 116.00 level, then there are 3 attacks on the 115.00 level . Now here I´m lost - for me I´d be out after the 2nd failure to break the 00 number - as its an important number, I´d have used the 8EMA (yellow) which would have given an exit at say 115.18 at 11:50 - this is just as the European Traders are closing out for the day and going home.

I can not at present see why Dove waited another 4.5 hours and then exited just after a lower high.....anyone got any ideas?
You have to remember: There are 25+ different moving averages plus over 100 variations on each of those MA's ...... You have your work cut out for you.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,747
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:57am Sep 6, 2007 4:57am
How are you doing? Hope you like being my mentor, Oh don't worry we'll learn together. Look how about some triangle and fibs just rough sketch.
All the best things in life are free.
  • #4,748
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:59am Sep 6, 2007 4:59am
I am favoring a short on USDJPY at 114.75
Attached Image
  • #4,749
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:06am Sep 6, 2007 5:06am
Quoting dove_alliance
You have to remember: There are 25+ different moving averages plus over 100 variations on each of those MA's ...... You have your work cut out for you.
LOL - thanks Dove, but someone had to start the ball rolling.......and if some brighter traders lend a hand we might make some progress
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,750
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:18am Sep 6, 2007 5:18am
Quoting WTB
I am favoring a short on USDJPY at 114.75
i am also favouring short and i think a breakout will occur
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #4,751
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:23am Sep 6, 2007 5:23am
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader
i am also favouring short and i think a breakout will occur
Only if the announcements favor the Yen?
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,752
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:27am Sep 6, 2007 5:27am
Hello Everyone,

Guess who's back - hey dove !

I see that everyone tries to breaks yours indicators - I might give a little try also

First of all Islander I'm quite sure Dove didn't mean Standard Linear Regression indicators but LSMA/Least Square/Linear Regression Line

Now he might have changed something but based on his post it looks like this :

1) On 5min chart he has LR combined with moving averages

here is some quote :

"I use the 5 minute chart with a Linear Regression and a couple of moving averages set at the right base and parameter.... At each turn I make an entry.... I set my limit for 10 pips and no more.... which is, a 7 pip profit.... Usually there are more pips but greed can always get you in trouble.... There is always at least 10 pips on each turn.... Just like this turn.... I got in at 118.76 and my limit took me out at the 86..... 7 pip profit..... Now i will wait for the next turn."

2) On 1h min chart he has those two trendlines for trend setting - here is some quote :

" When the blue crosses and is above the green then there is no power but only retraces..... When the blue crosses and gets below the green then the power is there and the volatility is strong..... When the market opened today the blue had crossed above the green which represents no power but only retraces; it is now touching one another getting ready to place the power back into the market."

He also wrote :

"I use Linear Regression and Moving Averages...... Complicated because most charts do not give the option of changing the base which is very important beside the changing of the different parameters on the MA's and also the LR"

and this :

One of my indicators I use is a Linear Regression set on the right base and parameter running on the main chart. This LR is set up to make a crossing with one of my moving averages. When this happens a sweep begins and consolidation is taking place for a turn around. At this point I knew that any retraces that will occur during this turn around will only be to the support of 117.60…. And how did I know it was heading for the central pivot? The reason is because of the major support at the 117.60….. Any time the usd/jpy hits a major support or resistance it WILL return to where it came from provided it did not bust through.

My guess is that the answer is not only looking for other MA with some random parameters - lets say EMA 55 - it is more complicated than this.

I believe that what he meant writing about "base" is MultiTimeFrame OR Moving Average of some correlated currency - the BASE has to be different so it can't be MA of current chart.

As for type - as he pointed out - there are many - the first which comes to my mind (and isn't regular one) is HULL Moving Averages.


Now I have hard time with those trendlines - I think that it has to be moving average because it will be very hard to sport frequent crosses of flat lines (you know,because of the angle)

Ok so here are my thoughts - maybe all-together we will break this ENIGMA (by the way do you know it was the Poles who broke this machine during WW2 ? Don't believe what that "movie" told you because it wasn't true


P.S

To make things more complicated :

On my 10 minute I have an indicator that slides under the candle if the trend is up and over the candle if the trend is down..... Whenever that happens at the end of the retrace it tells me to get back into the trend.

For me it is also Linear Regression - at least it looks for me like LR



Dove,hope you don't mind
  • #4,753
  • Edited 7:44am Sep 6, 2007 7:26am | Edited 7:44am
Thanks PT for joining me in this quest - it looks like you´re one of the "brighter ones" - and we´re sure going to need a few!!

As I said, I was just starting the ball rolling and your listing of Dove´s relevent posts was on my "to do" list.

Whilst I´ve tried quite a lot of indicators etc over the years, I´ve never heard of the LSMA nad never tried Hull MAs. I recently cleaned up my charts and adopted more of a KISS strategy, but I´m willing to look for Dove´s averages etc to see if they give a better explaination of price action than I currently have.

Edit: PS The Parabolic SAR also can be said to "slide under & over the candles"
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,754
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:07am Sep 6, 2007 8:07am
Hi everyone,
My first post ever, please be gentle ...hehehe!!

I have been a silent observer with this thread for some time also a newbie to
4X market and trying to follow my way. To give you an idea i have been trading the markets for more than 10 years but recently 8 months into 4X trading, it is a more complex and voliatile and receptive to short and sharp trading which is what i am probably looking for.

I too have been in many chat and forum sites and have found there are some amazing people within, giving advice and trying to guide others, which is good and bad as not all are able to take everything on board and adapt or change their views and understandably why should they, this is a complex issue for most to either devlugue their secrets or remain silent.

As with Dove you are an amazing person to reveal your trading strageties however, you are cryptic in your reveal and that is your choice and i can understand that if you are as successful are you suggest.

Dove, you have said what you want to and that is fine, it is a jigsaw puzzle for us to find what it is your saying, and as you have said you are not going revel this or that, or those indicators, however, you revel certain things that some can pick up on and run with to find out more, which is what i like, i have picked up on a few and testing it out.

You have alerted me to about 3 things so far that i have researched and followed up on to make me a better trader, and i contiune to research and follow up on those and others as they appear, it is just that you have to pick through your words to find what is the best thing to follow.

I think for me an outsider looking in i was surprised by the comments from only one person would affect you, but you obiviously did feel affected and reacted as one would, that is understandable. I have back read from beginning to end and have a big headache now but you albeit cryptic to instill some curiousity into this which can only bring out some that are willing to continue and some that a willing to criticise ................

Your indicator you revealed last week regarding trending was intersting as i looked into that and found there is one with who i trade with, as the old saying goes: those who seek shall find.

Glad to see you back Dove, you shed a light on things that were otherwise dark and we as traders had blinkers on, each day unfolds to a new beginning.
And i thank you for your involvement, it just depends on how each and everyone of us uses it to their advantage.
  • #4,755
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:12am Sep 6, 2007 8:12am
Nah - it's LR,look (I knew that I read this comment but I had to manually find it because stupid search engine didn't work - put LR on it and it will tell you that there are no matches - but there are :

"While I was in this trade I had the 118.00 in focus because it is also a resistance and support at the same time. When the candle got above the 118.00 and started its retrace I took profit. At that point the consolidation was still in play so I waited until this retrace finished which it did at the 117.62.... The next candle had opened again at the 117.69 and my LR was under that candle which means, to me, the consolidation was finished and I was back in again at the 117.69. From there I just let it rode to the top"

see ?
  • #4,756
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:30am Sep 6, 2007 8:30am
Polish/Islander,

I have also been trying to piece together from the tidbits of info Dove has mentioned about the indicators he uses what exactly he does use. Unfortunately, I'm not much further than you at this point. I hadn't thought of the fact that when he said 'base' he was talking about what the MA/LR lines were derived from other than USD/JPY. So that leaves us as to what is it?

I don't think it's EUR/USD. He mentioned once how USD/JPY and EUR/USD movements have been correlated, but that it was a recent thing. Also what charting package allows for this type of thing? MT4 sure doesn't.
  • #4,757
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:46am Sep 6, 2007 8:46am
You know,I only speculated.It doesn't mean Dove use it.However,this is how I understood this.

Accucharts (which Dove is using) let's you modify base and many things more - MT4 doesn't.

Accucharts doesn't work on my computer (don't ask how old my computer is but there were always other expenses

so I can't help you on this area.

I think MTF scenario is more probable - correlations aren't so regular,especially lately
  • #4,758
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:49am Sep 6, 2007 8:49am
Quoting thegunslinger
Polish/Islander,

I have also been trying to piece together from the tidbits of info Dove has mentioned about the indicators he uses what exactly he does use. Unfortunately, I'm not much further than you at this point. I hadn't thought of the fact that when he said 'base' he was talking about what the MA/LR lines were derived from other than USD/JPY. So that leaves us as to what is it?

I don't think it's EUR/USD. He mentioned once how USD/JPY and EUR/USD movements have been correlated, but that it was a recent thing. Also what charting package allows for this type of thing? MT4 sure doesn't.
Hi the gun,

This is not a guessing competition on the USD/JPY, this is a reveal of one person's obivious success however, he/she is revealing all little bits and pieces as he/she wants to and when they want to.............. you can know more but until then you search through the posts to find out what that is it will be a mystery to you.
  • #4,759
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:57am Sep 6, 2007 8:57am
lol thanks to the pair. I have gained 900$ on this pair. what might be the next move?
can anyone tell me what might the move today at 155.25..go down or up?
  • #4,760
  • Sep 6, 2007 9:05am Sep 6, 2007 9:05am
Quoting Jordie
Hi the gun,

This is not a guessing competition on the USD/JPY, this is a reveal of one person's obivious success however, he/she is revealing all little bits and pieces as he/she wants to and when they want to.............. you can know more but until then you search through the posts to find out what that is it will be a mystery to you.
Jordie,

I've been reading along with Dove since he first started posting here. Suffice to say, I've done that bit and have notes of it written down. That being said, Dove has made it clear that he's not revealing his indicators to us anymore than he already has. Maybe he'll change his mind in the future, but I doubt it. If some people are looking to figure it out, and he's encouraged people to do so, it's going to take guesswork and experimentation to decipher the parameters he uses.

One will learn a lot more then just Dove's system by doing this via trial and error, so I will happily indulge in this pursuit.
101 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
forexer123