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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,721
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:05pm Sep 5, 2007 11:05pm
Quoting Trader KGB
You shorted 6 pips shy of the high (116.46) and covered 3 pips shy of the low (114.82)...? That's incredible.. though I'm a bit skeptical.... Since neither of those two levels coincided with S/R pivots nor 50% midpoints, what gave you the entry/exit signals?

edit- sorry, I missed the post above where you mention it was the result of linear regs and MAs. Still, that's amazing entering/exiting on the high and low to such a degree. You never had a signal to cover all day during the US session with those 3 separate 30-pip retraces?
These indicators will not budge even through retrace..... They stay true to the end..... This is why I had always said: nothing can change a trend except the trend itself...... If I'm at the computer during the retraces then I will add another trade to the trend after the retrace is completed.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,722
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:06pm Sep 5, 2007 11:06pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Pivots got nothing to do with trends...... As I said above, having the right indicators for the trends will get you in on the beginning and get you out at the end...... One thing is for sure, my indicators do not lie.....
so did you enter at 114.93 using the trend indicator or the pivots..? it would be nice to know this since i can test different parameters in my MA's to see if it will give me a similar entry point..

like i said before, i'm new that's why im kinda bombarding the guru (dove) with so many questions...
  • #4,723
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:15pm Sep 5, 2007 11:15pm
Quoting dove_alliance
These indicators will not budge even through retrace..... They stay true to the end..... This is why I had always said: nothing can change a trend except the trend itself...... If I'm at the computer during the retraces then I will add another trade to the trend after the retrace is completed.
AMAZING!
  • #4,724
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:19pm Sep 5, 2007 11:19pm
Following is an edited post from G Man.

Quoting G-Man
Hi guys,

As I was one of the annoying people who asked questions that had been asked many times before, I have compiled many of Dove's posts that have comments relating to the way he trades with pivots which I think will include many of the anwers that any newbies or others who can't find specific posts are looking for.

They are a bit disjointed and some may seem out of context but it is the points that he is trying to make that are important. If there are exect points given I have included the date of that post in red ABOVE the text that was posted on that date. Any comments made by other posters are in italics.

Hope this little doc helps.
Good trading everyone.

G-Man
For folks new to this thread, you can go to post #2279 on 8/9/07 and download the word.doc referenced above that G Man labored to put together. Many of us have already benefitted from this. You'll have to read forward from there, but most of your questions to Dove have already been asked and answered several times over. Start there. It will be worth your time.

Dove, very good to hear from you again.
FUBAR...
  • #4,725
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:26pm Sep 5, 2007 11:26pm
For the benefit of those who do not know what trend we are talking about it is the daily trend..... This trend can last from a few hours to a few days.... No more than that...... But most of these trends will last from 18 - 24 hours.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,726
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:40pm Sep 5, 2007 11:40pm
For those who like to do their research; here is something for you to study..... Tuesdays and Wednesdays are the two heaviest days for the trends on this pair..... You can pull out between 250 - 400 pips on those two days in the trend alone..... Not counting what you can get on the retraces.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,727
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:50pm Sep 5, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Tuesday I got in on the trend down at 116.40 at 20:00 ET
Let's remove the benefit of hindsight and place ourselves at 20:00 ET on Tuesday. Price has been in a range from 116.05 - 116.37 for the past 10 hours. Shortly before 20:00 ET, price peaks its head above 37 and makes a new high at 46, then recedes 6 pips to 40. To an observer at 20:00 ET, the price is 6 pips off that high. To correctly call that initial 6 pips off the high a "down trend", without the benefit of hindsight, is practically omniscient...

Quote
These indicators will not budge even through retrace.....
So they won't budge on a 30-pip retrace, yet they're so fine-tuned they can detect a trend change 6 pips off the high (and 3 pips off the low)? That's unheard of.....

It's difficult to fathom a linear reg/MA combination that can detect trend changes within 3-6 pips and have that degree of accuracy (and one that also ignores any and all counter-trend fluctuations). You'd corner the market in no time with such a system..
  • #4,728
  • Sep 5, 2007 11:58pm Sep 5, 2007 11:58pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Let's remove the benefit of hindsight and place ourselves at 20:00 ET on Tuesday. Price has been in a range from 116.05 - 116.37 for the past 10 hours. Shortly before 20:00 ET, price peaks its head above 37 and makes a new high at 46, then recedes 6 pips to 40. To an observer at 20:00 ET, the price is 6 pips off that high. To correctly call that initial 6 pips off the high a "down trend", without the benefit of hindsight, is practically omniscient...

So they won't budge on a 30-pip retrace, yet they're so fine-tuned they can detect a trend change 6 pips off the high (and 3 pips off the low)? That's unheard of.....

It's difficult to fathom a linear reg/MA combination that can detect trend changes within 3-6 pips and have that degree of accuracy (and one that also ignores any and all counter-trend fluctuations). You'd corner the market in no time with such a system..
I hate to disappoint you but you are so wrong and you should know that by now with all the calls I have made through out the last two months and always been right...... Because my indicators are always right...... You do not see the big picture when it comes to the crossings of the indicators.... This is why there are 100's of variables when it comes to the MA's the LR....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,729
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:02am Sep 6, 2007 12:02am
Quoting dove_alliance
I hate to disappoint you but you are so wrong and you should know that by now with all the calls I have made through out the last two months and always been right...... Because my indicators are always right...... You do not see the big picture when it comes to the crossings of the indicators.... This is why there are 100's of variables when it comes to the MA's the LR....
Mr. Dove sorry bather, but is there a good book or site on the subjet, thanks in advance.
The Chonchy
  • #4,730
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:17am Sep 6, 2007 12:17am
Quoting dove_alliance
I hate to disappoint you but you are so wrong and you should know that by now with all the calls I have made through out the last two months and always been right...... Because my indicators are always right...... You do not see the big picture when it comes to the crossings of the indicators.... This is why there are 100's of variables when it comes to the MA's the LR....
dove,
I don't question the merits of your system or your previous calls. But something about tonight's hindsight calls.. capturing an entire trend within a fraction of both extremes.. you can't blame a little harmless skepticism..
  • #4,731
  • Edited 12:35am Sep 6, 2007 12:25am | Edited 12:35am
Trader KGB -

Lets go back to Monday even though it was a USD Holiday....

Monday morning at 06:00 ET a trend open for the short at 116.01 - The actual closing for this trend triggered at 115.35 on Tuesday at 03:55 ET.... At 07:40 ET, the same morning an up trend triggered at 115.43.... This trend triggered for the closing on Wednesday at 10:00 ET at the price level of 116.41..... And then you know what happen from there.

EDIT: The actual closing on Wednesday was at 10:56
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,732
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:26am Sep 6, 2007 12:26am
Quoting dove_alliance
I hate to disappoint you but you are so wrong and you should know that by now with all the calls I have made through out the last two months and always been right...... Because my indicators are always right...... You do not see the big picture when it comes to the crossings of the indicators.... This is why there are 100's of variables when it comes to the MA's the LR....
welcome back dove,
surely there are alot of ppl miss u this past few days..
hopefully u have a wonderful holiday...

as far for the trend imho, hourly starting to go up, i think we will see 2nd attempt to daily pivot.
  • #4,733
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:26am Sep 6, 2007 12:26am
Quoting Trader KGB
dove,
I don't question the merits of your system or your previous calls. But something about tonight's hindsight calls.. capturing an entire trend within a fraction of both extremes.. you can't blame a little harmless skepticism..
I have to agree with you on Trader KGB... It's hard to fathom... especially because Dove would always take profit at pivots he wouldn't allow such retraces...
  • #4,734
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:34am Sep 6, 2007 12:34am
I have a question, I just placed a trade short at USD/JPY 115.58 (Pivot Point). I was wondering what PT should I use the 50% (115.14ish) or Support Level 1 (114.70ish)

Thanks
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,735
  • Sep 6, 2007 12:37am Sep 6, 2007 12:37am
wutz the daily for today? are we seeing a retracement right now?
  • #4,736
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:18am Sep 6, 2007 1:18am
price is 115.36 right now.. i still think that the trend is up!
  • #4,737
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:36am Sep 6, 2007 1:36am
Im look first 113.85 support level but need to wait until 115.72. I think
  • #4,738
  • Sep 6, 2007 2:28am Sep 6, 2007 2:28am
Quoting dove_alliance
Trader KGB -

Lets go back to Monday even though it was a USD Holiday....

Monday morning at 06:00 ET a trend open for the short at 116.01 - The actual closing for this trend triggered at 115.35 on Tuesday at 03:55 ET.... At 07:40 ET, the same morning an up trend triggered at 115.43.... This trend triggered for the closing on Wednesday at 10:00 ET at the price level of 116.41..... And then you know what happen from there.

EDIT: The actual closing on Wednesday was at 10:56
Interesting. To calculate these trend triggers, which of the following of your charts do you use: the 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 minutes, the 1 hour, or the 2 hour? Or some combination thereof? Do you wait for the LR-MA crossover to occur on one time-period, or multiple time periods, before you commit to the trade?
  • #4,739
  • Sep 6, 2007 2:44am Sep 6, 2007 2:44am
Quoting Trader KGB
Interesting. To calculate these trend triggers, which of the following of your charts do you use: the 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 minutes, the 1 hour, or the 2 hour? Or some combination thereof? Do you wait for the LR-MA crossover to occur on one time-period, or multiple time periods, before you commit to the trade?
Good Question?
  • #4,740
  • Sep 6, 2007 2:58am Sep 6, 2007 2:58am
Quoting dove_alliance
Trader KGB -

Lets go back to Monday even though it was a USD Holiday....

Monday morning at 06:00 ET a trend open for the short at 116.01 - The actual closing for this trend triggered at 115.35 on Tuesday at 03:55 ET.... At 07:40 ET, the same morning an up trend triggered at 115.43.... This trend triggered for the closing on Wednesday at 10:00 ET at the price level of 116.41..... And then you know what happen from there.

EDIT: The actual closing on Wednesday was at 10:56
EDIT: I keep getting a day ahead of myself because of the Holiday..... But the last trade was on Tuesday before the trend down - almost 10 hours later at the same level of the 116.40 mark. So, the actual closing on the up trend to the 116.41 mark was 10:56 ET on Tuesday and On Tuesday at 20:00 ET for the trend down.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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