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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,681
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:32pm Sep 5, 2007 4:32pm
Based on moving averages I think that your shorts look good .... but as you pointed out indicators are rather oversold right now.
  • #4,682
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:34pm Sep 5, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting PolishTrader
Based on moving averages I think that your shorts look good .... but as you pointed out indicators are rather oversold right now.
lol. yea its kinda of a flip flop situation don't ya think. Pretty much anything could happen.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,683
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:43pm Sep 5, 2007 4:43pm
That is how Forex works

In my opinion we're going south now - question is when.As we already said we had overbought areas right now so maybe it will retrace a little bit - lets say to Weekly Pivot and then it will have fresh energy to go down.
  • #4,684
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:43pm Sep 5, 2007 4:43pm
115.14 has been broken...Will it hold up at 115 or drop all the way to 14.70?? hmm...I think I'm going to get out as close as I can to 115...I'm not sure if I see 114.70 in the near future...
  • #4,685
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:47pm Sep 5, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting jpat1023
115.14 has been broken...Will it hold up at 115 or drop all the way to 14.70?? hmm...I think I'm going to get out as close as I can to 115...I'm not sure if I see 114.70 in the near future...
Definitly the same here, i think there will be retracement at around the 115.00 level so possibly a long trade over here may do good, we still however need to remember what polish trader said about those over baught indicators.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,686
  • Sep 5, 2007 4:54pm Sep 5, 2007 4:54pm
Quoting chady250
Definitly the same here, i think there will be retracement at around the 115.00 level so possibly a long trade over here may do good, we still however need to remember what polish trader said about those over baught indicators.
I'm out. 12 pips profit. I just didn't feel like the risk was worth the reward, so I got out with a decent profit.

I'm seeing a retracement back to the 115.25 area, then a trip down to 14.70 or so......I may be wrong, but that's my humble opinion.
  • #4,687
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:02pm Sep 5, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting jpat1023
I'm out. 12 pips profit. I just didn't feel like the risk was worth the reward, so I got out with a decent profit.

I'm seeing a retracement back to the 115.25 area, then a trip down to 14.70 or so......I may be wrong, but that's my humble opinion.
Lol no prob. hey you never that decision you have made may just be a very good idea .
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,688
  • Edited 5:15pm Sep 5, 2007 5:04pm | Edited 5:15pm
This is how I see it :

The 21EMA (red) and 55EMA (blue) has just crossed 200 EMA (green) [ok,21 EMA had done earlier) on 1h chart

Besides we broke thorugh lower arm of triangle to the downside (grey,bolded line)

At 114.99 there is 38.2%fib retracment which both with 115.00 psychological level act as support.If we break that area then I think that we can move to Weekly S1 (114.17) - but in the middle there are few fib levels so it might stop earlier.

The disadvantage is fact of overbought indicators - so it might be good idea to catch short,lets say,on Weekly Pivot

This is just my opinion - I'm looking forward to yours

P.S

Fib levels may differ because of my broker

P.S.2

You can check on the left side of the picture that the last time the 21EMA and 55EMA crossed 200EMA we had later nice drop - I believe it was somewhere around 28 August as you can see.

Still - history don't have to repeat
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  • #4,689
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:09pm Sep 5, 2007 5:09pm
Quoting chady250
Lol no prob. hey you never that decision you have made may just be a very good idea .
haha yea it worked out great actually, I got out at the bottom and as soon as that next candle went blue(up) I went long....just looking for about 10 pips...then I will go short again
  • #4,690
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:19pm Sep 5, 2007 5:19pm
Hmm, I believe we should wait until the pair goes to 115.25 before placing a trade. I see a descending triangle formation (15min charts) so I am not to sure whether or when we will be having a breakout of it. Along with this Our new PP is at 115.60 so if it breaks out of the triangle going up, we might expect to see it hit 115.50-70area. However if breaks down on the triangle and goes southward, I believe it should go through 115.00 and eventually slowing down near 114.70 Support Level 1 Daily.

With this in mind. Stochastics is in oversold area which will hopefully bounce up enough during the retracement to 115.25, then a move southward may entice 115 to break and leading to 114.70. I do have to agree with you Polishtrader that Stochastics and RSI are in dangerous areas for a bouce back up in the 30 min, and 1hour charts. which may ose a slow down for the 114.20 target.

I must also add on that between 114.70-115.00 lies another important threat of the 50% between PP and S1 on the weekly pivots (114.83). I am still not to familiar with pivot points, but I do see critical stalls during the 50% areas.

With this in mind, I believe that a trade should be placed either at 115.30 (Long) or 115.00(Short) depending on which way it breaks. PT would vary since this may be a critical area for the pair to move.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,691
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:20pm Sep 5, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting jpat1023
haha yea it worked out great actually, I got out at the bottom and as soon as that next candle went blue(up) I went long....just looking for about 10 pips...then I will go short again
Hey nice job! Lol I'm still going short trying to get those extra pips at 115, but it seems like your one step ahead of the game. Nice
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,692
  • Edited 5:26pm Sep 5, 2007 5:25pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting chady250
Hey nice job! Lol I'm still going short trying to get those extra pips at 115, but it seems like your one step ahead of the game. Nice
haha only this time, and only for now...

I'm still weary of this decending triangle, as you pointed out, it could really break either way...I just hope it breaks up and hits my tp (115.22) before it returns to its downtrend, which I think is inevitable.

btw, good post^^
  • #4,693
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:29pm Sep 5, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting jpat1023
haha only this time, and only for now...

I'm still weary of this decending triangle, as you pointed out, it could really break either way...I just hope it breaks up and hits my tp (115.22) before it returns to its downtrend, which I think is inevitable.

btw, good post^^
Lol thanks! Well I am gonna go take a break right now, and hopefully I'll see ya guys at the tokyo open.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,694
  • Sep 5, 2007 5:53pm Sep 5, 2007 5:53pm
good job guys... today was one of the best trading days for me... went long at 115.05 and sold at 115.40... but the money was made with cable.. went long 2.0080 before it dipped to 2.0040.. but it didn't reach the SL (fortunately)... and then rode it till 2.0200... helluva ride... im happy now.. 18% ROI in a day aint bad...
  • #4,695
  • Sep 5, 2007 6:00pm Sep 5, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting invicta79
good job guys... today was one of the best trading days for me... went long at 115.05 and sold at 115.40... but the money was made with cable.. went long 2.0080 before it dipped to 2.0040.. but it didn't reach the SL (fortunately)... and then rode it till 2.0200... helluva ride... im happy now.. 18% ROI in a day aint bad...
NICE JOB INVICTA !!

I got your back on the .05 long upto .40.
I was in the room when this gent called that trade LIVE.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,696
  • Sep 5, 2007 8:54pm Sep 5, 2007 8:54pm
reached 115.29... seeing if it breaks 115.35!
  • #4,697
  • Sep 5, 2007 9:07pm Sep 5, 2007 9:07pm
115.33.... maybe wait till... 115.47.. there was a previous peak of 115.45 at 12:30 pm.. ET.... what to do.. what to do...

saw a mini up trend line on my 10 min chart starting at 7:50pm.. placing a buy at 115.33 scalping till 115.45-115.50.
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  • #4,698
  • Sep 5, 2007 9:10pm Sep 5, 2007 9:10pm
I got in long at 115.06.. but got out way too early!!

Well, have to just wait for a re-entry...
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #4,699
  • Sep 5, 2007 9:12pm Sep 5, 2007 9:12pm
i'm really not trained to draw trend lines.. but if i'm correct.. in the 1hr chart.. the downwards trend line was broken about an hour ago @ 155.22-115.25.
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  • #4,700
  • Sep 5, 2007 9:16pm Sep 5, 2007 9:16pm
Quoting jasonowl
I got in long at 115.06.. but got out way too early!!

Well, have to just wait for a re-entry...
haha.. don't worry jason.. i do that all the time.. at least you banked some money... i really believe that 115.30.. is a good entry point for a quick long scalp... but.. it's just me.. i dont even know if i drew the lines correctly or not ..
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