EURUSD & GOLD

your monitor is upside down...

As I interpreted based on the economic indicators in today's calendar:
1. Mortgage market:
-30 year mortgage rate fell (economic weakness). Mortgage applications (MBA Purchase index) less; refinancings increased, which made: Mortgage applications and Mortgage market index increase. So, fewer new mortgages.
2. Building permits (MoM) below expectations.
3. New home sales (MoM) below expectations.
4. Oil inventories fell, but not spectacularly. Refineries processed less oil.
5. 2 Year FRN Auction, bond auction, demand was lower, price fell.

Conclusion: USD weaker.

Okay, there's another auction for the 5 Year Auction in 2 hours.

gold h4 should go sideways to mild upside , monitor nasdaq

for November 3 mid term elections trump has to paint a sweet picture, so iran war goes on hold, oil prices drop, every effort is made to reduce inflation

after november 3 war starts again
, india pakistan cannot fight in monsoon or winters, so this waits till spring 2027

USD strong

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15775343

long gold >4025 level

Gold bulls trying to hold it here >4025 a closer look. - a bounce if >4025

out 3/5 of the long gold scalp house money now

i am innocent, my duty is to only press the button once

Are these two indicators important?

gemini : explain this image and its importance https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3?d=1782425611

This image displays a live intraday financial chart tracking One-Month SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) Futures expiring in July 2026.
The data originates from the CME Group exchange and is rendered via a TradingView interface interface.
Chart Breakdown

1. Financial Instrument: One-Month SOFR Futures (Ticker: SR1N20 or specifically the July 2026 contract Jul 2026).
2. Current Price: 96.3550, which is up marginally by +0.0100 (+0.01%).
3. Price Movement Behavior: The sharp, step-like vertical blocks (the "barcode" pattern) represent extreme price granularity. Because short-term interest rate futures move in rigid fractional ticks, the contract is rapidly bouncing between a tight window of 96.3450, 96.3550, and 96.3600.
4. Highlighted Event: A vertical green line emphasizes a distinct structural event on June 25 at 07:30 UTC-5, tracking market volatility right around a typical macroeconomic data release window.

Why This Image is Important
1. Translating Market Expectations of Interest Rates
Short-term interest rate futures are priced as 100 - Interest Rate. A price of 96.3550 explicitly implies that institutional investors are pricing the forward-looking, annualized SOFR rate for July 2026 at exactly 3.645% ($100 - 96.3550$).
2. Visualizing Institutional Liquidity and Gridlock
The choppy, boxy movement shows a highly liquid but tight order-book environment. Large blocks of institutional orders are filling immediately at specific tick boundaries, giving analysts an exact look at where major market makers are capping their risk.
3. Gauging Federal Reserve Sentiment
SOFR closely mirrors the U.S. Federal Funds Rate. Corporate treasurers, hedge funds, and macro traders monitor this exact contract to track real-time changes in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary path. A sudden spike or drop in this specific chart means the market is actively repricing a future rate hike or cut.
If you want, I can help you dig deeper into this market data. Tell me:

1. Do you want to calculate how a specific basis point change impacts a trading position?
2. Would you like to compare this to Long-Term Treasury yields or Fed Fund Futures?
3. Are you looking to understand how macro economic announcements alter these numbers?

so best TF to scalp is daily which can give me 31% return

booked 34 usd because h4 technical is posting bullish trend line now

i can be wrong but i am also considering the weekly ATR

Dead right, mate
Ignoring the macro bias behind the dollar to just stubbornly trade technicals is basically doing NPC grunt work. I used to fry my brain staring at screens all day before I finally clocked that grinding away in a market with zero momentum is an absolute waste of life. Once you figure out the real underlying flows triggered by the heavy macro drops and just ride that overarching gravity, all the stop-hunting noise designed to wash out retail won't mug you off ever again.

//@version=6
indicator(
title = "30-Day Fed Funds Futures – Multi-Timeframe",
shorttitle = "ZQ Fed Funds MTF",
overlay = false,
format = format.price,
precision = 4
)
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// INPUTS
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// Fed Funds futures contract.
// Continuous front-month contract by default.
// Examples:
// CBOT:ZQ1! = Continuous front-month contract
// CBOT:ZQN2026 = July 2026
// CBOT:ZQQ2026 = August 2026
// CBOT:ZQU2026 = September 2026
string contractSymbol = input.symbol(
defval = "CBOT:ZQ1!",
title = "Fed Funds Futures Contract",
group = "Contract"
)
// Select whether the chart displays the futures price
// or the implied average Federal Funds rate.
string displayMode = input.string(
defval = "Implied Rate (%)",
title = "Display",
options = ["Implied Rate (%)", "Futures Price"],
group = "Display"
)
// Timeframe 1 can automatically follow the chart timeframe.
bool useChartTimeframe = input.bool(
defval = true,
title = "TF1 follows chart timeframe",
group = "Timeframes"
)
string timeframe1Input = input.timeframe(
defval = "60",
title = "Timeframe 1",
group = "Timeframes"
)
bool showTimeframe2 = input.bool(
defval = true,
title = "Show Timeframe 2",
group = "Timeframes"
)
string timeframe2 = input.timeframe(
defval = "240",
title = "Timeframe 2",
group = "Timeframes"
)
bool showTimeframe3 = input.bool(
defval = true,
title = "Show Timeframe 3",
group = "Timeframes"
)
string timeframe3 = input.timeframe(
defval = "1D",
title = "Timeframe 3",
group = "Timeframes"
)
// Optional reference rate.
bool showReferenceRate = input.bool(
defval = false,
title = "Show reference rate",
group = "Reference Level"
)
float referenceRate = input.float(
defval = 4.00,
title = "Reference rate (%)",
step = 0.05,
group = "Reference Level"
)
// Table visibility.
bool showTable = input.bool(
defval = true,
title = "Show information table",
group = "Table"
)
// Determine the timeframe used by TF1.
string timeframe1 = useChartTimeframe ? timeframe.period : timeframe1Input
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// FUNCTIONS
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// Requests the current and previous closing price directly
// from the selected contract and timeframe.
getContractData(string ticker, string requestedTimeframe) =>
request.security(
symbol = ticker,
timeframe = requestedTimeframe,
expression = [close, close[1]],
gaps = barmerge.gaps_off,
lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off
)
// Converts the quoted futures price into the implied average Fed Funds rate.
//
// Fed Funds futures price = 100 - implied average rate
// Implied average rate = 100 - futures price
getImpliedRate(float futuresPrice) =>
100.0 - futuresPrice
// Formats numerical values for the table.
formatValue(float value) =>
na(value) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(value, "#.####")
// Formats changes in basis points.
formatBasisPoints(float value) =>
na(value) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(value, "#.##") + " bp"
// Table color for changes in the implied rate:
// Red = rate expectations increased
// Green = rate expectations decreased
getChangeColor(float changeInBasisPoints) =>
na(changeInBasisPoints) ? color.gray :
changeInBasisPoints > 0 ? color.red :
changeInBasisPoints < 0 ? color.lime :
color.silver
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// DATA REQUESTS
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[price1, previousPrice1] = getContractData(contractSymbol, timeframe1)
[price2, previousPrice2] = getContractData(contractSymbol, timeframe2)
[price3, previousPrice3] = getContractData(contractSymbol, timeframe3)
// Calculate the implied average Federal Funds rate.
float impliedRate1 = getImpliedRate(price1)
float impliedRate2 = getImpliedRate(price2)
float impliedRate3 = getImpliedRate(price3)
float previousImpliedRate1 = getImpliedRate(previousPrice1)
float previousImpliedRate2 = getImpliedRate(previousPrice2)
float previousImpliedRate3 = getImpliedRate(previousPrice3)
// Change in implied rate, expressed in basis points.
// 0.01 percentage points = 1 basis point.
float rateChangeBps1 = (impliedRate1 - previousImpliedRate1) * 100.0
float rateChangeBps2 = (impliedRate2 - previousImpliedRate2) * 100.0
float rateChangeBps3 = (impliedRate3 - previousImpliedRate3) * 100.0
// Select the values displayed in the indicator pane.
float displayedValue1 = displayMode == "Implied Rate (%)" ? impliedRate1 : price1
float displayedValue2 = displayMode == "Implied Rate (%)" ? impliedRate2 : price2
float displayedValue3 = displayMode == "Implied Rate (%)" ? impliedRate3 : price3
// Convert the reference rate into the selected display format.
float referenceValue = displayMode == "Implied Rate (%)" ?
referenceRate :
100.0 - referenceRate
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// PLOTS
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
plot(
series = displayedValue1,
title = "Timeframe 1",
color = color.aqua,
linewidth = 3
)
plot(
series = showTimeframe2 ? displayedValue2 : na,
title = "Timeframe 2",
color = color.orange,
linewidth = 2
)
plot(
series = showTimeframe3 ? displayedValue3 : na,
title = "Timeframe 3",
color = color.fuchsia,
linewidth = 2
)
plot(
series = showReferenceRate ? referenceValue : na,
title = "Reference Rate",
color = color.gray,
linewidth = 1,
style = plot.style_stepline
)
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// INFORMATION TABLE
//──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
var table dashboard = table.new(
position = position.top_right,
columns = 4,
rows = 4,
border_width = 1
)
string timeframe1Label = useChartTimeframe ?
"Chart (" + timeframe.period + ")" :
timeframe1
if barstate.islast and showTable
// Header
table.cell(
dashboard, 0, 0, "Timeframe",
bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 70),
text_color = color.white
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 1, 0, "Futures Price",
bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 70),
text_color = color.white
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 2, 0, "Implied Rate",
bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 70),
text_color = color.white
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 3, 0, "Rate Change",
bgcolor = color.new(color.gray, 70),
text_color = color.white
)
// Timeframe 1
table.cell(dashboard, 0, 1, timeframe1Label)
table.cell(dashboard, 1, 1, formatValue(price1))
table.cell(dashboard, 2, 1, formatValue(impliedRate1) + "%")
table.cell(
dashboard, 3, 1,
formatBasisPoints(rateChangeBps1),
text_color = getChangeColor(rateChangeBps1)
)
// Timeframe 2
table.cell(
dashboard, 0, 2,
showTimeframe2 ? timeframe2 : "Disabled"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 1, 2,
showTimeframe2 ? formatValue(price2) : "-"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 2, 2,
showTimeframe2 ? formatValue(impliedRate2) + "%" : "-"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 3, 2,
showTimeframe2 ? formatBasisPoints(rateChangeBps2) : "-",
text_color = showTimeframe2 ?
getChangeColor(rateChangeBps2) :
color.gray
)
// Timeframe 3
table.cell(
dashboard, 0, 3,
showTimeframe3 ? timeframe3 : "Disabled"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 1, 3,
showTimeframe3 ? formatValue(price3) : "-"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 2, 3,
showTimeframe3 ? formatValue(impliedRate3) + "%" : "-"
)
table.cell(
dashboard, 3, 3,
showTimeframe3 ? formatBasisPoints(rateChangeBps3) : "-",
text_color = showTimeframe3 ?
getChangeColor(rateChangeBps3) :
color.gray
)
// Clear the table when it is disabled.
if barstate.islast and not showTable
table.clear(dashboard, 0, 0, 3, 3)