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EURUSD only

  • #228,801
  • Jun 24, 5:09am (9 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:09am (9 hr ago)
EURUSD Big Downside Loading...

After a sustained move in a sideways direction for around 1-year, EURUSD has recently broke below it's lowest level of that consolidating range (1.1391),
Long term range breakouts are know for their high success rate, following to it we are expecting big downfall, for the rally that started on 14th Jan 2025 till it had made a prominent high of 1.2082 on 27th Jan 2026, a retracement was long pending. It seems like the move has already started, It has potential to continue till the purple rectangle tagged as 'Important fib retracement zone', its a mid point range of 0.5 & 0.618 Fib retracement level, where it may face some support.
Price structure on the (DXY) Dollar index, also confirms the rational behind this forecast. Do check the related publication segment, I'll be linking earlier published DXY story.
DXY story link: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15741690
Broader outlook for near to mid term seems bearish, and trades aligned with the outlook should be attempted for better hit rate.

Any new perspective you want to add, Please feel free to mention below in the comment.

For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice, Always use strict Risk management measures.

Regards CrazyTrades247.
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  • #228,802
  • Jun 24, 5:19am (9 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:19am (9 hr ago)
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EUR/USD has bounced back into line with yield spreads, so that story is pretty much played out for now. COT shows divergence. What I'm watching next is whether a divergence starts showing up around 1.14 support—if price keeps holding up while yield spreads weaken, or the other way around, that could be the more interesting signal. ECB tightening also worrying.
  • #228,803
  • Jun 24, 5:25am (9 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:25am (9 hr ago)
H4: I see a smaller bearish channel inside the main bearish channel and the blue line is the path that bears are sliding lower..

No buying with current picture and momentum! Once current H4 candle closes, next bear target sits around 1.1321...
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #228,804
  • Jun 24, 5:50am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:50am (8 hr ago)
Quoting CrazyTrades
EURUSD Big Downside Loading... After a sustained move in a sideways direction for around 1-year, EURUSD has recently broke below it's lowest level of that consolidating range (1.1391), Long term range breakouts are know for their high success rate, following to it we are expecting big downfall, for the rally that started on 14th Jan 2025 till it had made a prominent high of 1.2082 on 27th Jan 2026, a retracement was long pending. It seems like the move has already started, It has potential to continue till the purple rectangle tagged as 'Important...

Love it! Dump it!
  • #228,805
  • Jun 24, 5:53am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:53am (8 hr ago)
Whenever I check the prices after about 1 or 2 hours, I see that the bears are pushing the market further and further and have already shot way beyond that point. They've long since overextended it. Can't and will not last forever. Looking again in 1 or 2 hours.
  • #228,806
  • Jun 24, 5:57am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:57am (8 hr ago)
The dixxie also broke out of the year long range and most likely will continue higher.
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  • #228,807
  • Jun 24, 5:58am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 5:58am (8 hr ago)
Quoting stealyerface
{quote} Been burned all week trying to stop the market. Not worth it. I'm out until we correct back to 1.14000.
sl hit
  • #228,808
  • Jun 24, 6:05am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:05am (8 hr ago)
Quoting Leser
Whenever I check the prices after about 1 or 2 hours, I see that the bears are pushing the market further and further and have already shot way beyond that point. They've long since overextended it. Can't and will not last forever. Looking again in 1 or 2 hours.
isn't it better to just take what the market gives you, instead of always waiting for it to do something else. And yes, I'm sure eventually it will go up.
Ata is a really good teacher at that, trade what you see, not what you want to see, it isn't overextended until you see it reversing. I'm sure people died in 2023 waiting for the gold uptrend to reverse
  • #228,809
  • Jun 24, 6:18am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:18am (8 hr ago)
Quoting Polimini
{quote} isn't it better to just take what the market gives you, instead of always waiting for it to do something else. And yes, I'm sure eventually it will go up. Ata is a really good teacher at that, trade what you see, not what you want to see, it isn't overextended until you see it reversing. I'm sure people died in 2023 waiting for the gold uptrend to reverse
Don't worry, i've been trading over 30 years and i know what i'm doing.
I always trade based on what I see, and I generally follow the trend, but I don’t have to try to capture every pip. I know from experience that whenever extreme situations prevail — as it does right now — it’s better to stay on the sidelines.

No offense, pride comes before a fall, and the bears are currently brimming with pride. They’re falling over themselves with even lower targets and forecasts, believing that everything will happen all at once. In any case, that’s how it reads everywhere — or at least that’s how it comes across. I’ve rarely seen such a prolonged trading period in a zone that’s so extremely oversold in every respect, and I believe there’s going to be a rude awakening. Therefore again it's better to stay on the sidelines. Good luck.
  • #228,810
  • Jun 24, 6:24am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:24am (8 hr ago)
Quoting Leser
{quote} Don't worry, i've been trading over 30 years and i know what i'm doing. I always trade based on what I see, and I generally follow the trend, but I don’t have to try to capture every pip. I know from experience that whenever extreme situations prevail — as it does right now — it’s better to stay on the sidelines. No offense, pride comes before a fall, and the bears are currently brimming with pride. They’re falling over themselves with even lower targets and forecasts, believing that everything will happen all at once. In any case, that’s...

Spot on! And hand sitting is never a bad thing.

  • #228,811
  • Jun 24, 6:28am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:28am (8 hr ago)
There is a big limit order sitting around 1.1320 drawing the PA and it didn't get hit yet. Will see if it gets there what will happen - if bulls will wake up or will be taken out.
  • #228,812
  • Jun 24, 6:30am (8 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:30am (8 hr ago)
Quoting Ultras
There is a big limit order sitting around 1.1320 drawing the PA and it didn't get hit yet. Will see if it gets there what will happen - if bulls will wake up or will be taken out.
I'm new so asking for learning purposes ...... how/where do you see this?
Thanks for any indication
  • #228,813
  • Jun 24, 6:44am (7 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:44am (7 hr ago)
Quoting BeTheVolp
{quote} I'm new so asking for learning purposes ...... how/where do you see this? Thanks for any indication
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I use the Oanda order/position book
Easy Does it.
  • #228,814
  • Jun 24, 6:46am (7 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:46am (7 hr ago)
Quoting stealyerface
{quote}{image} I use the Oanda order/position book
Thanks!

Is that .... OANDA or ....?
  • #228,815
  • Jun 24, 6:47am (7 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:47am (7 hr ago)
Quoting BeTheVolp
{quote} Thanks! Is that .... OANDA or ....?
Yes!
Easy Does it.
  • #228,816
  • Jun 24, 6:58am (7 hr ago) Jun 24, 6:58am (7 hr ago)
if the price break 13.494 , then go BUY
  • #228,817
  • Edited 9:28am Jun 24, 8:50am (5 hr ago) | Edited 9:28am
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(H4)

I had set 1.14572 to around 1.13748 for a price pivot. Bears remained very strong however. The question now, is the price @1.13244 where bulls take over in the short term? I'm watching for any bullish H4 close and price action to trade above its highs and only then will my bias flip to bullish and potential buys, otherwise still short/selling bias for now until that actually happens!

Again like last time, my thoughts are, it may be the next LH pivot in my market structure settings with pivot projection targets around 1.14732>1.15584 (fib levels/price deviation).
  • #228,818
  • Jun 24, 9:25am (5 hr ago) Jun 24, 9:25am (5 hr ago)
Quoting jonasdao
Opened a swing long at 1.1380. SL 1.1317 (63 pips risk), no fixed TP atm. SL to BE (approx.) above 1.1450, then trailing.
1.1325 may prove to be the bottom. For now, I'm sticking to the plan.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #228,819
  • Jun 24, 9:36am (5 hr ago) Jun 24, 9:36am (5 hr ago)
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} 1.1325 may prove to be the bottom. For now, I'm sticking to the plan.
I have never felt so much anger in my life.
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  • #228,820
  • Jun 24, 10:40am (4 hr ago) Jun 24, 10:40am (4 hr ago)
Quoting AmDrafax
{quote} I have never felt so much anger in my life. {image}
He who seeks great reward must also be prepared for great pain.
– Master Yoda

I feel you.
– jonasdao
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
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