Looks like cable is tryin to grab EMA21...before it retraces down,since its testing the support around 365 for the past hour....what do u guys think?
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DislikedGuess that will have to do then....it been so quiet and my finger are itchyIgnored
DislikedHi MikeWong,
Both Cable and E/U had weak sell MACD patterns, but they gave great breaks of support which is a good sell signal in itself(not nec. this system rules in & of itself tho'). This is where PA comes into action, to help us make decisions on when to act. However, it was a riskier trading day b/c of the thin conditions (I went short cable and closed early (at the 200 on hourly b/c price stalled and stalled and stalled...just made me nervous). E/U gave the clearest picture based purely on the chart I posted earlier in the weekend. A huge daily pin gave the suggestion that prices couldn't hold upper levels....the MACD also gave "weak" sell signal. Both Cable and Euro/USD had been struggling w/area's of resistance lately, and both broke minor short-term support...they were both in symmetrical triangles and the break-out could have come from either direction. Also, Cable and Fiber are both being directed by their yen counterparts...I was very unsure of the US risk appetite today...and thus extra cautious w/cable short.
With all this said....don't worry about missing today's trade...they were somewhat riskier b/c of market environment. If you believe that the downmoves will continue...wait for retraces to the broken support lines w/macd signal...pay attention to candles too....when all is said and done, think about where price is in relation to MA's...has price retested area before? Where is short term support & resistance? What have the previous candle closes look like? What does the MACD look like? Where would my stop have to go? What are profit targets? Its a lot of info to consider, but over time, it will become more natural. You'll go from a "shy driver"to one who speeds around on the freeway and only hits the center divide every now and then (hehehe)....
PS... I use either or scenarios...when conditions are met for either the long or the short trade, it is entered....if I miss a breakout trade, I wait for a retrace...or better yet....signs that it was a fakey. The only way we'll know for sure if it is a fakey is if former support doesn't act as resistance...if price re-enters w/bullish candle...target other side of the pattern if r:r justifies....or position for breakout in that direction w/stop below support....confused? sorry....Ignored
DislikedHey everyone...Monday was one of those 'did you ever have one of those days where you wish everything and everyone would just go away?'...which kind of filtered into today and this afternoon. I've been very distracted these last couple of days, but I did manage to get in off the bounce off the 4hr 89 on the EU per the 1hr chart and just hanging out right now. I didn't have time to post anything here or on the blog...haven't even checked the blog to see if Phill or pips posted anything. I think I may be single again in the next few days but I should be able to get back to business here tomorrow...It's ok really, she's a Cleveland Browns fan and I pull for the Steelers so that was a red flag right off the bat!Ignored
DislikedI guess eur/usd short would have been a winner if placed yesterday.
I have planned to do so, but I did not since the indications were low.
eur/usd
3 sep 07, 16:22 gmt
breakthrough triangle pattern
short 1.3612
sl 1.3632 (-20 pips) underneath ema's
(a)TP 1.3595 (+17 pips) above ema 365, slightly above previous low at 1.3591
(b)TP 1.3572 (+40 pips) above sma 89
as soon as (a) tp triggered (b) sl +/-0
macd moves slowly down
rsi slightly below 50
maybe I should have taken this trade.
does anybody have suggestions about my analysis and trading plan?
have there been clear indications for the short trade that I did not see?
thank youIgnored
DislikedHi Mike,
If I could start from scratch...knowing absolutely nothing....I'd hope that someone would direct me to study support and resistance and market rhythm. Those two skills are so important in reading the market. I'd also hope someone would be able to convince me how important backtesting is; practicing the skills of drawing support lines and taking practice trades to build confidence. Also Pin bars! I learned that here, and they are so powerful!
To sum it up:
1. Support & Resistance (where can my trade go? & how do I enter/exit & where should my stop go)
2. Market Rhythm(where are we in the cycle? Should I wait for a better entry b/c retrace is possible soon? Where would the entry for a retrace occur?)
3. Candle Patterns (clue to emotion in the market! invaluable -- start w/pins then invest in Nison's book)
4. Patience (I don't know how to learn this, but I really wish that there were excercises to help w/this....I'm very energetic in real life and have an extremely difficult time waiting for the trade to come to me -- I'm use to going and getting what I want -- this doesn't work in trading and is a sure recipe for disaster.)
Hope this helps! (Focus on one thing at a time, and master each of the three analysis skills while working on your psychological approach to trading & you will become an extremely talented trader! Listen to Phillip!! He knows what he is doing!
Best to you,
Pips
PS...ignore the news and fundamentals (I started there and love them, but they will overwhelm you in the beginning...focus on the basic technical skills..they are what make you money!). But be aware of the big important news events and don't front trade them...Interest Rate Decisions, Fed Meetings, and NFP.Ignored
Dislikedjust wondering.. what's cable.. and why it's called so?
Thank you.Ignored
DislikedDonna, love this post. I feel it is worth millions to me. I had no prior coaching or attending to any seminar on forex or even trading b4 this, but i feel like i'm learning something everyday from just this thread.
And yes i'll concentrate on the 3 fundamental skills here in trading ie support and resistance, market rhythm and candlesticks patterns. At the same time i will integrate the learnings of these 3 skills through backtesting and also working on psychological aspects (journaling, be aware of emotions etc)
I'll keeping on my progress and will definitely seek more wisdom from everyone else here.
Nison's book , in which you meant the Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques? I have that on e-book. I've also just downloaded Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas, heard it's good for psychology of trading. If anyone wants a copy of these 2 books (i've got the e-book copy of it) pls pm me.
Thanks once again Donna...i feel i've been enlightened!
MikeIgnored
DislikedActually this is an anticipating trade.. What i mean by that is it is an high probability trade awaiting for a breakout. Notice that that chart of Eur$ forms a head and shoulders pattern. Your entry point is the formation of the right shoulder. With 200sma forming a resistance at the right shoulder, plus its a acsending wedge forming indicating a outbreak downwards. I personally took the odds on by entering when the first bearish engulfing bar form at the left shoulder, waiting the price to break below TL. Stoploss was above 200sma, TP was 365ema and 89sma. Its a good learning curve. One must prepared themselves for a possibility trade in the direction of their analysis.. I'm not saying everyone should get involved in every trade. That is impossible but just get prepared..Ignored