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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,701
  • Sep 4, 2007 8:53am Sep 4, 2007 8:53am
Looks like cable is tryin to grab EMA21...before it retraces down,since its testing the support around 365 for the past hour....what do u guys think?
  • #6,702
  • Sep 4, 2007 8:55am Sep 4, 2007 8:55am
Quoting Al1nn
Guess that will have to do then....it been so quiet and my finger are itchy
Yikes...you didn't enter did you? If you were playing a range...the buy was 2 hours ago...price is retesting the 365 on the hourly! Please tell me you only scratched your finger, or you looked at the charts and planned a trade using the 50 pips you need as a stop...(possible to use 1.3685 too but very risky)!

Just wanted to point out the charts are ranging too......(I do have a minor short term support at 1.3602...but I don't know if it will hold).....
  • #6,703
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:34am Sep 4, 2007 9:34am
Hi all

GU make nice trade today .. back from 200 and trend line as they act as resistance .. breaking the triangle trend .. and crossing the zero .. the signal candle just close with 21MA ..

Short @ 2.0154 stop@ 2.0190 Target is between 365 and trend line

Stop 36 pips and profit more than 60 pips .. so V.good R:R .. also 1H confirm it

I think we could see a TC continue .. if its form on both charts (4 @ 1 H) it will be nice trade and the target will be 89..


Best wishes

Ammar
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  • #6,704
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:40am Sep 4, 2007 9:40am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi MikeWong,

Both Cable and E/U had weak sell MACD patterns, but they gave great breaks of support which is a good sell signal in itself(not nec. this system rules in & of itself tho'). This is where PA comes into action, to help us make decisions on when to act. However, it was a riskier trading day b/c of the thin conditions (I went short cable and closed early (at the 200 on hourly b/c price stalled and stalled and stalled...just made me nervous). E/U gave the clearest picture based purely on the chart I posted earlier in the weekend. A huge daily pin gave the suggestion that prices couldn't hold upper levels....the MACD also gave "weak" sell signal. Both Cable and Euro/USD had been struggling w/area's of resistance lately, and both broke minor short-term support...they were both in symmetrical triangles and the break-out could have come from either direction. Also, Cable and Fiber are both being directed by their yen counterparts...I was very unsure of the US risk appetite today...and thus extra cautious w/cable short.

With all this said....don't worry about missing today's trade...they were somewhat riskier b/c of market environment. If you believe that the downmoves will continue...wait for retraces to the broken support lines w/macd signal...pay attention to candles too....when all is said and done, think about where price is in relation to MA's...has price retested area before? Where is short term support & resistance? What have the previous candle closes look like? What does the MACD look like? Where would my stop have to go? What are profit targets? Its a lot of info to consider, but over time, it will become more natural. You'll go from a "shy driver" to one who speeds around on the freeway and only hits the center divide every now and then (hehehe)....


PS... I use either or scenarios...when conditions are met for either the long or the short trade, it is entered....if I miss a breakout trade, I wait for a retrace...or better yet....signs that it was a fakey. The only way we'll know for sure if it is a fakey is if former support doesn't act as resistance...if price re-enters w/bullish candle...target other side of the pattern if r:r justifies....or position for breakout in that direction w/stop below support....confused? sorry....
Hey Donna,

Thanks. Seeing it from an experienced trader's thought process is really insightful, just like how Philip did the E/U August trades.

There is so much confidence in your analysis and I hope you would share with us , if you could start your trading career from the beginning again, what would you have focussed on (with the benefit of having this forum and Philip's 4hr MACD system)

From your post, there's a lot to learn here and it's great for a newbie like me. I'm going to concentrate on learning how to make good trades as well as finish reading the thread here.

Thanks once again,
Mike
  • #6,705
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:00am Sep 4, 2007 10:00am
Hi Mike,

If I could start from scratch...knowing absolutely nothing....I'd hope that someone would direct me to study support and resistance and market rhythm. Those two skills are so important in reading the market. I'd also hope someone would be able to convince me how important backtesting is; practicing the skills of drawing support lines and taking practice trades to build confidence. Also Pin bars! I learned that here, and they are so powerful!

To sum it up:

1. Support & Resistance (where can my trade go? & how do I enter/exit & where should my stop go)
2. Market Rhythm(where are we in the cycle? Should I wait for a better entry b/c retrace is possible soon? Where would the entry for a retrace occur?)
3. Candle Patterns (clue to emotion in the market! invaluable -- start w/pins then invest in Nison's book)
4. Patience (I don't know how to learn this, but I really wish that there were excercises to help w/this....I'm very energetic in real life and have an extremely difficult time waiting for the trade to come to me -- I'm use to going and getting what I want -- this doesn't work in trading and is a sure recipe for disaster.)

Hope this helps! (Focus on one thing at a time, and master each of the three analysis skills while working on your psychological approach to trading & you will become an extremely talented trader! Listen to Phillip!! He knows what he is doing!

Best to you,
Pips

PS...ignore the news and fundamentals (I started there and love them, but they will overwhelm you in the beginning...focus on the basic technical skills..they are what make you money!). But be aware of the big important news events and don't front trade them...Interest Rate Decisions, Fed Meetings, and NFP.
  • #6,706
  • Sep 4, 2007 1:51pm Sep 4, 2007 1:51pm
Philip
please what do you think ???....Today E/U small TC pattern 8-12 candle confirmed 1 hour chart (9 h.candle).Before this price broke out yesterdays low and channel (4 candles before). I didnt take because close this candle is tightly above MA 365. But MA 89 is below MA 365 . I now , this situation MA 21 ,8 have not any role ,but question is "...in this situation when all MA are closely and price is squeezed between, has MA 365 any role if is inside between MA 200 and MA 89 ...???? .... ...I think yes but I am not sure Thank you ..??
  • #6,707
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:17pm Sep 4, 2007 4:17pm
Hey everyone...Monday was one of those 'did you ever have one of those days where you wish everything and everyone would just go away?'...which kind of filtered into today and this afternoon. I've been very distracted these last couple of days, but I did manage to get in off the bounce off the 4hr 89 on the EU per the 1hr chart and just hanging out right now. I didn't have time to post anything here or on the blog...haven't even checked the blog to see if Phill or pips posted anything. I think I may be single again in the next few days but I should be able to get back to business here tomorrow...It's ok really, she's a Cleveland Browns fan and I pull for the Steelers so that was a red flag right off the bat!
  • #6,708
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:29pm Sep 4, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey everyone...Monday was one of those 'did you ever have one of those days where you wish everything and everyone would just go away?'...which kind of filtered into today and this afternoon. I've been very distracted these last couple of days, but I did manage to get in off the bounce off the 4hr 89 on the EU per the 1hr chart and just hanging out right now. I didn't have time to post anything here or on the blog...haven't even checked the blog to see if Phill or pips posted anything. I think I may be single again in the next few days but I should be able to get back to business here tomorrow...It's ok really, she's a Cleveland Browns fan and I pull for the Steelers so that was a red flag right off the bat!
Hi Palmer...sorry about your situation ...& I thought you were just hiding b/c of the bonehead safety move from the punter of Fla. State (made the highlights here cuz it was so funny...thank goodness for tivo...we rewound repeatedly and laughed til our sides split!! Run Forest Run!! I know....ROLLLLLL CRIMMMSOOON TIDDDDE! (Hope that cheered you).

Haven't posted b/c my trades today weren't Pure 4 hour MACD....more support breaks w/weak signal...my E/J short might have qualified...but I'm scared to post live.....is it bad luck? Just kidding about the bad luck (but am scared to post live....look what may have happened when I said range earlier...thank goodness that trade is up +13 and never really went negative...

K...Just tried to cheer you up! Hopefully you guys can work things out!

Happy thoughts and good trading,
Pips
  • #6,709
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:39pm Sep 4, 2007 5:39pm
It's all good, not to worry there pips. She kinda pulls for Auburn too so...Either way it wasn't a long term thing anyway so no biggie. Hmm, I guess we should be talking about trading here not gobblygook like this ok...Buy low Sell high, there ya go.

Looking at the 1.3640 area or the 200ma for the next target or resistance area on the EU. Beige book report tomorrow with the Fed, might have some interest rate news.

Interesting development in the $Yen. Price at a long term downtrend line and the MACD may be showing some bearish divergence as well. If you too the Tc signal be ready for a pullback that might develop...
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  • #6,710
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:49pm Sep 4, 2007 5:49pm
Hello everyone. Its nice to be back after a long weekend. Nice to see a lot of interaction going on on the forum.
I see euro and cable had similar short opportunities and then a bounce off supporting MA to go long and currently both have pulled back to 21 EMA.
I was wondering if 21 might hold as resistance and a move down to 89 with 365 as first targets in still in the cards. I know the long tails on both the pairs where price bounced off support suggests damage already done so long trades are more probable. but with the pairs still ranging between 200 an 89 a short signal is also a probability. only time and the candles will tell.
trade well and pip plenty.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,711
  • Sep 4, 2007 7:59pm Sep 4, 2007 7:59pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting ashes
I guess eur/usd short would have been a winner if placed yesterday.
I have planned to do so, but I did not since the indications were low.

eur/usd

3 sep 07, 16:22 gmt

breakthrough triangle pattern

short 1.3612

sl 1.3632 (-20 pips) underneath ema's

(a)TP 1.3595 (+17 pips) above ema 365, slightly above previous low at 1.3591

(b)TP 1.3572 (+40 pips) above sma 89

as soon as (a) tp triggered (b) sl +/-0

macd moves slowly down

rsi slightly below 50

maybe I should have taken this trade.
does anybody have suggestions about my analysis and trading plan?
have there been clear indications for the short trade that I did not see?

thank you
Actually this is an anticipating trade.. What i mean by that is it is an high probability trade awaiting for a breakout. Notice that that chart of Eur$ forms a head and shoulders pattern. Your entry point is the formation of the right shoulder. With 200sma forming a resistance at the right shoulder, plus its a acsending wedge forming indicating a outbreak downwards. I personally took the odds on by entering when the first bearish engulfing bar form at the left shoulder, waiting the price to break below TL. Stoploss was above 200sma, TP was 365ema and 89sma. Its a good learning curve. One must prepared themselves for a possibility trade in the direction of their analysis.. I'm not saying everyone should get involved in every trade. That is impossible but just get prepared..
  • #6,712
  • Sep 4, 2007 8:28pm Sep 4, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Mike,

If I could start from scratch...knowing absolutely nothing....I'd hope that someone would direct me to study support and resistance and market rhythm. Those two skills are so important in reading the market. I'd also hope someone would be able to convince me how important backtesting is; practicing the skills of drawing support lines and taking practice trades to build confidence. Also Pin bars! I learned that here, and they are so powerful!

To sum it up:

1. Support & Resistance (where can my trade go? & how do I enter/exit & where should my stop go)
2. Market Rhythm(where are we in the cycle? Should I wait for a better entry b/c retrace is possible soon? Where would the entry for a retrace occur?)
3. Candle Patterns (clue to emotion in the market! invaluable -- start w/pins then invest in Nison's book)
4. Patience (I don't know how to learn this, but I really wish that there were excercises to help w/this....I'm very energetic in real life and have an extremely difficult time waiting for the trade to come to me -- I'm use to going and getting what I want -- this doesn't work in trading and is a sure recipe for disaster.)

Hope this helps! (Focus on one thing at a time, and master each of the three analysis skills while working on your psychological approach to trading & you will become an extremely talented trader! Listen to Phillip!! He knows what he is doing!

Best to you,
Pips

PS...ignore the news and fundamentals (I started there and love them, but they will overwhelm you in the beginning...focus on the basic technical skills..they are what make you money!). But be aware of the big important news events and don't front trade them...Interest Rate Decisions, Fed Meetings, and NFP.

Donna, love this post. I feel it is worth millions to me. I had no prior coaching or attending to any seminar on forex or even trading b4 this, but i feel like i'm learning something everyday from just this thread.

And yes i'll concentrate on the 3 fundamental skills here in trading ie support and resistance, market rhythm and candlesticks patterns. At the same time i will integrate the learnings of these 3 skills through backtesting and also working on psychological aspects (journaling, be aware of emotions etc)

I'll keeping on my progress and will definitely seek more wisdom from everyone else here.

Nison's book , in which you meant the Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques? I have that on e-book. I've also just downloaded Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas, heard it's good for psychology of trading. If anyone wants a copy of these 2 books (i've got the e-book copy of it) pls pm me.

Thanks once again Donna...i feel i've been enlightened!

Mike
  • #6,713
  • Sep 4, 2007 8:37pm Sep 4, 2007 8:37pm
just wondering.. what's cable.. and why it's called so?

Thank you.
  • #6,714
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:00pm Sep 4, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting benniardi
just wondering.. what's cable.. and why it's called so?

Thank you.
Since I'm the annoying kid in class who always raises their hand w/the answer ....

Cable is GBP/USD reason: because of the transatlantic cable that connects US and UK

Just FYI:

Euro/Usd = euro or fiber
Usd/CHF = swissy


& MikeWong! What an adventure you are embarking on! Yes, Nison's is the Candlestick Patterns....Master the emotions since you get the opportunity to start fresh!! I'm so excited for you! You too Bernardi!! Sounds like you might be a bit fresh too!!!!

Pips
  • #6,715
  • Edited 9:19pm Sep 4, 2007 9:06pm | Edited 9:19pm
I just took a quick scan of the charts...nothing for me now...will wait til tomorrow...

Anyone interested in E/J...looks like a short could be possible...I'm passing tonight...the week is already onto a decent start...

If you take the E/J short monitor it well between 11 pm PST and 1 Am...Just a thought.. currently 157.95 stop above 158.25

Check it out...it started running....I'm tired....and its only the beginning of the week...this post took me forever! Yikes

See you guys tomorrow...

Pips
  • #6,716
  • Sep 4, 2007 9:36pm Sep 4, 2007 9:36pm
Quoting mikewong
Donna, love this post. I feel it is worth millions to me. I had no prior coaching or attending to any seminar on forex or even trading b4 this, but i feel like i'm learning something everyday from just this thread.

And yes i'll concentrate on the 3 fundamental skills here in trading ie support and resistance, market rhythm and candlesticks patterns. At the same time i will integrate the learnings of these 3 skills through backtesting and also working on psychological aspects (journaling, be aware of emotions etc)

I'll keeping on my progress and will definitely seek more wisdom from everyone else here.

Nison's book , in which you meant the Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques? I have that on e-book. I've also just downloaded Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas, heard it's good for psychology of trading. If anyone wants a copy of these 2 books (i've got the e-book copy of it) pls pm me.

Thanks once again Donna...i feel i've been enlightened!

Mike

Please pm me your emails so i can send them to you. Will send them later as i dont have it on this PC. Cheers
  • #6,717
  • Sep 5, 2007 12:34am Sep 5, 2007 12:34am
Quoting shauny
Actually this is an anticipating trade.. What i mean by that is it is an high probability trade awaiting for a breakout. Notice that that chart of Eur$ forms a head and shoulders pattern. Your entry point is the formation of the right shoulder. With 200sma forming a resistance at the right shoulder, plus its a acsending wedge forming indicating a outbreak downwards. I personally took the odds on by entering when the first bearish engulfing bar form at the left shoulder, waiting the price to break below TL. Stoploss was above 200sma, TP was 365ema and 89sma. Its a good learning curve. One must prepared themselves for a possibility trade in the direction of their analysis.. I'm not saying everyone should get involved in every trade. That is impossible but just get prepared..
Thanky you, shauny, for the explanation. I see the build up of head and shoulder now. Could it be a possibility to enter long for about 70 pips if ema365 as support got proven? Sl around ema21/8? On the long term we're waiting the breakout of the head and shoulder pattern above sma200, right?

Thank you also for helping me setting up the ema365. It works fine now.

Greetings
  • #6,718
  • Sep 5, 2007 2:51am Sep 5, 2007 2:51am
Hi all

Another nice trade today .. and the pics speak .. I think may be we will see another TC as the last candle closed below the daily trand line and 365 so it could retrace upto 21 on 1h and back down again.

Black: 4h trend line
Violet: Daily trend line

Ammar
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  • #6,719
  • Edited 7:15am Sep 5, 2007 3:29am | Edited 7:15am
I just went long on eur/usd. First trade this week
Let's see how this one will work out.


eur/usd 4h chart

5 sep 07 11:02 gmt

seems as if support round sma89 has been proven.

macd doesn't show clear pattern, but it could develop
to either higher low or double bottom.


long 1.3589 (above ema 365)

sl 1.3568 (-21) (sma 89)

(a) tp : 1.3608 (+19) (inbetween ema 8/21)

(b) tp: 1.3638 (+49) (slightly below sma 200)

if (a)tp (b)sl=+/-0


15:10 gmt

(a)tp = + 19 pips

(b)sl= 1.3577 (-12)

since (a)tp has been triggered by newsrelease I will not move (b)sl=+/-0, since there could be a retracement move


15:14 gmt

(b)tp = +49 pips


all in all + 68 pips


maybe I've just been lucky because of the US pending homesales ...



I apprechiate any comment and correction.
  • #6,720
  • Sep 5, 2007 3:45am Sep 5, 2007 3:45am
Any upside breakout potential as the 89 EMA is now slightly tilting upward?
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