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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,601
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:39am Sep 4, 2007 10:39am
We have different triangles. I have a symmetrical contracting (and possibly limiting) triangle. You have an ascending triangle. Interesting. You could be right
  • #4,602
  • Edited 10:43am Sep 4, 2007 10:40am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting moneypip
usd/jpy: Large option Expiry Pressuring Greenback higher New York Sept 4th.
London dealers report large usd/jpy 116 expires rolling off at the New York cut that are pressuring USD/JPY higher the ammount is slated to be half a yard (500 million) and is thought to be giving the greenback an added boost.

So I say to myself how is technical analysis supposed to work when
orders like this occur?
Hi Moneypip....

The conundrum is, that T/A doesn't always work....ever. It is a great tool for sure, and I am a T/A trader myself.

Though the thing to remember, and what you might have just learned. KNOWLEDGE in KNOWING that a large option at 116 was pushing this pair up would more than likely "supersede" T/A.

Combining the 2....T/A with Fundies, along with what is really happening out in the world....such as your mentioned expiry.....is a complete strategy. A single trader has to wear many hats, and be ever aware.

I learned this the hard way also myself many moons ago, and the hard lessons seem to stick.....

Hope that made sense, and helped a bit

best of Luck
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,603
  • Sep 4, 2007 12:45pm Sep 4, 2007 12:45pm
Looks like it was a two-way trip if you ask me.
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  • #4,604
  • Sep 4, 2007 1:53pm Sep 4, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting southernmind
Looks like it was a two-way trip if you ask me.
What's the significance of the 0% and 100% boundaries for your fibs other than Sunday's high/low?
  • #4,605
  • Sep 4, 2007 2:42pm Sep 4, 2007 2:42pm
still long and hopefully going strong
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #4,606
  • Sep 4, 2007 3:22pm Sep 4, 2007 3:22pm
Going short here at 116.37 on a scalp looking for 116.15
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,607
  • Sep 4, 2007 3:24pm Sep 4, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Going short here at 116.37 on a scalp looking for 116.15
Agree - good move,I see negative divergence on 30min chart + we are touching top of the triangle
  • #4,608
  • Sep 4, 2007 3:29pm Sep 4, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting PolishTrader
Agree - good move,I see negative divergence on 30min chart + we are touching top of the triangle
Yep, for me the 15min and twizzers at resistence.....doubt it will go South much b4 5PM NY Time due to rolls......

I'm ready for a bit of turbulance! Just not to much!!!

Good Luck
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,609
  • Edited 4:55pm Sep 4, 2007 4:03pm | Edited 4:55pm
Here we go...after 5pm!!

Moving my S/L to a manuel trailing stop set at 116.32 +5 pips locked
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,610
  • Edited 5:01pm Sep 4, 2007 5:00pm | Edited 5:01pm
PROFIT TARGET hit at 557pm edt at 116.15

Apologies....558pm target was hit.....
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,611
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:12pm Sep 4, 2007 5:12pm
Here's what I got open 115.77 hi 116.42 lo 115.33 close 116.18

R3 117.71
R2 117.07
R1 116.62

Daily 115.98

S1 115.53
S2 114.89
S3 114.44
  • #4,612
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:22pm Sep 4, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting Trader KGB
What's the significance of the 0% and 100% boundaries for your fibs other than Sunday's high/low?

The significance is that these are the points of the high/low of the consolidation range price. They also happened to be the high/low for the new week up until Tuesday morning.
  • #4,613
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:22pm Sep 4, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting FxJarhead
PROFIT TARGET hit at 557pm edt at 116.15

Apologies....558pm target was hit.....

Hi all,

For those who had emailed me via direction and practice of a daily counter trend type scalp, and what a "possible" set up might look like.....I hope this trade helped in some small way.
I hope I answered your questions as thouroughly as possible in my replies.
I also hope you all were patient enough to stay "live" here til it developed....not much time to waste in a scalping situation. Thankfully we had some time to wait before the move happened.

Take Care all
Hope that seeing it unfold live helped more than my description ever could.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #4,614
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:53pm Sep 4, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting moneypip
Here's what I got open 115.77 hi 116.42 lo 115.33 close 116.18

R3 117.71
R2 117.07
R1 116.62

Daily 115.98

S1 115.53
S2 114.89
S3 114.44
Got my numbers from fxdd:

R3 117.83
R2 117.12
R1 116.73

CENTRAL 116.32
DAILY 116.02

S1 115.63
S2 114.92
S3 114.53

Mine were usually within one pip of Dove's
  • #4,615
  • Sep 4, 2007 7:57pm Sep 4, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting Trader KGB
FXDD Autopivots (these may differ from Accucharts by a pip or two)...


Don't forget the Sept. monthly pivot at 116.42.

Does the updated PP 115.72 monthly pivot you just posted replace this one of 116.42 for September or is it an additional sort of monthly pivot. If different, how so? Just pondering pivots...
FUBAR...
  • #4,616
  • Sep 4, 2007 8:52pm Sep 4, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting ak4x
Does the updated PP 115.72 monthly pivot you just posted replace this one of 116.42 for September or is it an additional sort of monthly pivot. If different, how so? Just pondering pivots...
Sorry, the original was right. Interesting to see how the monthly pivot has acted as strong resistance twice the past two days.
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  • #4,617
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:26pm Sep 4, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Sorry, the original was right. Interesting to see how the monthly pivot has acted as strong resistance twice the past two days.
I agree. Most recently, August 16, 23, 24, and 28 are also good examples of this. Still looking for the time to follow it back and see if there's anything to learn from it, give or take a few pips either side of it.

Historically, weekly candles for much of Jan And Feb of 2001, 9/16/01, 7/21/02, an amazing doji on 8/31/03, and 3/11/07 are some others. Check out the price action that "appears" to be somewhat linked to this level. There are some other ones even farther back around early 90's I think. It's an interesting thing to ponder on a long pipless night. Anyway, thanks for the pip calculations.
FUBAR...
  • #4,618
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:29pm Sep 4, 2007 10:29pm
Trader, i just reread your post and looked at the chart closer, and realized everything I just said had no connection to what you said. I'm all screwed up. Oh well... the doji on 8/31/03 is still amazing.
FUBAR...
  • #4,619
  • Sep 4, 2007 10:45pm Sep 4, 2007 10:45pm
No problem. It should also be noted that the 38.2 fib off the 124-111 move is 116.38 (within a few pips of the monthly pivot). So the market has both to deal with if it wants to head higher. It may continue to be a safe shorting zone until it builds the momentum to break it.
  • #4,620
  • Sep 4, 2007 11:14pm Sep 4, 2007 11:14pm
Pips here, Pips there, Pips everywhere, but not a single drop to drink yet!

The small short term trend is certainly down, but there are a couple of support areas, and the "desire" to push this thing up makes it very hard to trade indeed.

Cheers folks.. happy pippin'
Chances favour the prepared.
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