EURUSD & GOLD

My Pre Market Analysis on GOLD 5th June 2026

Current position before NFP

1. Current close: 4465.53
2. Day high: 4481.50
3. Day low: 4428.94
4. Current VWAP: 4453.36
5. VWAP +1 STD: 4463.10
6. VWAP +2 STD: 4472.85
7. VWAP -1 STD: 4443.62
8. VWAP -2 STD: 4433.87

Price is currently above VWAP and above +1 STD, but still below the day high. That means gold has already rebounded from the morning selloff, but it is not clean bullish expansion yet.
NFP context
Today already has a 52.56 point range before release. That is large.
Historical first-Friday/NFP days with similar pre-release range and weak early direction showed a strong downside skew after release in this dataset.
The closest matches gave median post-release downside around 52–64 points from the pre-release anchor, while upside was much smaller.
Forecast high / low
Using current anchor 4465.53:
Likely high zone
4472–4482
Why:

1. VWAP +2 STD = 4472.85
2. Day high = 4481.50
3. This is the obvious upside liquidity / rejection zone.

Stretch high
4495–4505
Only if NFP produces a bullish surprise and price accepts above 4482.
Likely low zone
4413–4425
Why:

1. Day low = 4428.94
2. Similar NFP setups historically often broke pre-release lows.
3. Post-release downside projection from 4465.53 gives roughly 4413–4425.

Posted in my free Telegram channel

sideways

eurusd paused for the nfp news and weekend closing

count candles, was it predicted ?

Gold (XAU/USD) is mainly influenced by:
1. US real interest rates (very important)
2. Dollar (DXY)
3. Market fear (VIX)
4. Safe haven demand
Therefore, gold’s reaction may differ depending on the reason why the labor market is improving.

Scenario 1: Labor market is recovering, economy is healthy (“soft landing”) * DXY ↑ * US2Y ↑ * VIX ↓ * S&P 500 ↑ Gold: ↓ or sideways
Reason: * investors prefer stocks and risky assets; * higher interest rates make gold less attractive because it does not pay interest; * stronger dollar puts additional pressure on gold. ⸻

Scenario 2: Labor market is too strong, Fed remains hawkish * DXY ↑↑ * US2Y ↑↑ * S&P 500 ↓ * VIX ↑ or stable Gold: usually ↓ Reason: * bond yields rise; * opportunity cost of holding gold rises; * dollar appreciates. This is one of the worst-case scenarios for gold. ⸻

Scenario 3: Economic data is weak, market fears recession * DXY may ↑ (safe haven) * VIX ↑ * US2Y ↓ * S&P 500 ↓ Gold: ↑ Reason: * investors seek protection; * market anticipates rate cuts; * real yields fall. ⸻

Scenario 4: Data is weak and the Fed will cut rates * DXY ↓ * US2Y ↓ * VIX ↓ after initial shock * S&P 500 ↑ Gold: ↑↑ This is one of the most favorable scenarios for gold. ⸻

The most useful rule for you When watching NFP, CPI or other important data, first look at US2Y:
* US2Y ↑ → gold is usually under pressure to fall.
* US2Y ↓ → gold is usually supported.

Then check DXY: * US2Y ↓ + DXY ↓ = very bullish on gold. * US2Y ↑ + DXY ↑ = very bearish on gold.

Currently, gold often reacts more strongly to movements in the 2-year yield and Fed expectations than to the economic data itself. That's why, after an NFP, the first chart worth looking at is US2Y.

The market is positioned for a September Fed rate cut to 3.25. Talks are currently for a rate hike.

Until there is frequent news of a weakening economy and rate cuts, gold will not rally strongly again.