HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 21st May 2026.

Strong NVIDIA Earnings: Why the Weak Reaction?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8ed44101d1aa16

NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report continues to deliver very strong results and guidance for the upcoming quarter, though the stock’s reaction was relatively weak in the short term. At times during the hours after NVIDIA’s report was made public, the stock rose, but at the moment it is trading 1.25% higher.

Economists argue that investors had already priced in a strong quarter and did not find the results surprising. In addition, the stock has already gained 70% over the past 12 months, suggesting traders are satisfied with both the gains and the current price. For this reason, the reaction remains relatively muted, although it supports the broader stock market.

The NASDAQ and US stock market are seeing both up and down price movement during this morning’s Asian session. This is partially due to traders waiting for the US market to open in order to digest the NVIDIA news, as well as the tug-of-war between positive earnings and geopolitical issues.

The NASDAQ Reacts to NVIDIA’s Strong Earnings Report
Over the past week, the NASDAQ formed a clear double bottom pattern, followed by a reversed head and shoulders pattern. Both patterns indicate upward price movement due to the index finding support. The key drivers will remain NVIDIA’s earnings report, as well as factors forming due to the US-Iran conflict.

In regards to NVIDIA, the main story is still AI infrastructure demand. Earnings per share were $1.87 and revenue was just over $81 billion, both higher than expectations. Data Centre revenue now represents the overwhelming majority of NVIDIA’s business, driven by demand for AI chips, networking, and full-stack AI systems.

NVIDIA also reported record Data Center compute revenue of $60.4 billion and networking revenue of $14.8 billion, showing that growth is not only from GPUs but also from the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem.

In addition to this, investors are closely monitoring developments within the Middle East. Even though some reports suggest that the negotiations are close to producing a memorandum, the US President and Iran remain in a war of words. This morning, both the US Dollar and crude oil are trading higher due to this. Any escalation causing higher inflation and a further bond selloff can pressure the NASDAQ’s trend.

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HFM - NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart

In the short term, if the price falls below $29,178.40, sell signals are likely to arise. However, if the price rises above $29,288.20, buy signals can strengthen further. All global indices are trading lower this morning, giving a slight bearish bias. However, markets will monitor the price action as the US session opens.

Gold Remains Under Pressure from the Dollar And Iran Conflict
The price of Gold continues to come under pressure from bond yields, the US Dollar, and global monetary policy. These three elements are tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump again demanded Iran’s compliance with White House conditions. However, Iran continues to insist on sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before negotiations continue. According to Al Arabiya, US and Iranian representatives may meet in Islamabad after the Hajj season, with this year’s main rituals falling on May 25-29. Mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt have recently worked to bridge the gaps. Iran now needs to offer specific nuclear commitments, while the US must clarify the process for unblocking Iranian funds.

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HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

On the 1-hour chart, the price of Gold continues to trade below the key moving averages and below the VWAP. However, the price remains within the neutral level of the RSI and the MACD. For this reason, Gold is not experiencing sell signals from all indicators, but is seeing a bearish bias.

Key Takeaways:

1. NVIDIA delivered strong earnings and guidance, but the reaction remains weak because investors had already priced in a strong quarter.
2. AI infrastructure remains NVIDIA’s main growth driver, with Data Centre revenue now representing the majority of the business.
3. The NASDAQ remains sensitive to both NVIDIA’s performance and geopolitical risks, especially developments in the US-Iran conflict.
4. Gold remains under pressure from a stronger US Dollar, higher bond yields, and uncertainty around global monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th May 2026.

Global Markets Rally as Iran Peace Talks Progress | Oil Prices Fall, Stocks Surge & Gold Rebounds.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...at_Wall_Street
Asian Stocks Rise While Oil Prices Tumble on Hopes of a US-Iran Agreement
Global financial markets started the week on a strong footing as optimism surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations boosted investor sentiment and triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. Asian equities rallied, Wall Street futures advanced, and the US dollar weakened as traders increasingly priced in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore disrupted energy flows.

The developments mark a major turning point for financial markets after months of heightened geopolitical tensions, soaring energy prices, and persistent inflation fears driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters to Global Markets
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes, handling a significant portion of global crude oil exports.

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict earlier this year, disruptions in the strait severely impacted global oil transportation, tightening supply conditions and driving crude prices sharply higher. Countries heavily dependent on imported energy, including Japan and several European economies, faced rising energy costs and growing inflationary pressure.

Now, hopes that the strait could fully reopen are reshaping market expectations.

According to regional reports and US officials, negotiations between Washington and Tehran are progressing, with discussions focusing on:

 

1. reopening the Strait of Hormuz,
2. restoring oil shipments,
3. extending ceasefire agreements,
4. and reducing regional tensions.

Although US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations are moving ‘constructively,’ he also cautioned that the United States would not rush into a final agreement.

This uncertainty continues to keep markets highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Oil Prices Drop as Supply Fears Ease
Crude oil markets reacted immediately to the diplomatic developments.

Brent crude fell more than 5%, dropping below $98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid toward the $91 level. The sharp decline reflects expectations that global supply disruptions could ease if tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes normally.

The market reaction was also supported by reports that:

 

1. liquefied natural gas tankers have resumed movement through the strait,
2. commercial vessels are once again receiving transit authorisation,
3. and some previously stranded crude shipments have successfully departed the Gulf region.

Lower oil prices helped improve broader market sentiment because traders now anticipate:

 

1. reduced inflationary pressure,
2. easing transportation costs,
3. and lower risks of a prolonged global energy shock.

However, analysts warn that volatility may remain elevated because negotiations are still ongoing and the energy supply chain may take months to fully normalise.

Asian Stock Markets Rally to Record Highs
Asian equity markets responded positively to the improving geopolitical outlook.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged nearly 3% to fresh record highs, driven by gains in technology and export-oriented companies. Taiwan’s market also advanced strongly, while mainland Chinese equities moved higher despite lingering concerns over domestic regulatory developments.

Broader investor appetite for risk returned as traders shifted focus away from war-driven uncertainty and back toward economic growth opportunities and artificial intelligence-related momentum.

The rally extended to US equity futures, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbing sharply ahead of the Memorial Day holiday closure in the United States.

The MSCI All Country World Index also approached all-time highs as global investors embraced a renewed risk-on environment.



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The US Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Improves
Currency markets reflected the changing investor sentiment.

The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, while the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen gained ground.

The decline in the dollar was fuelled by:

 

1. falling oil prices,
2. improving market confidence,
3. and expectations that easing inflation pressures could eventually reduce the need for aggressive monetary tightening.

A weaker dollar also provided additional support for commodities and precious metals.



Gold Prices Rebound Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions
Gold prices moved higher even as geopolitical fears eased, an unusual but important signal for traders.

Typically, improving global stability pressures safe-haven assets lower. However, this time gold benefited from:

 

1. the weakening US dollar,
2. declining Treasury yields,
3. and expectations that lower oil prices may help contain inflation over the medium term.

Spot gold climbed back above $4,550 per ounce after recent losses, although prices remain significantly below the highs reached during the peak of the conflict earlier this year.

Market participants are also closely monitoring the policy stance of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, as investors attempt to gauge the future direction of interest rates.



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Inflation and Interest Rates Remain a Major Market Concern
Despite the recent decline in oil prices, inflation concerns have not disappeared.

Energy prices surged dramatically during the conflict, contributing to elevated global inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher across major economies.

Markets are currently reassessing the outlook for central bank policy, particularly in the United States.

Traders are increasingly focused on:

 

1. upcoming US inflation data,
2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures,
3. Federal Reserve commentary,
4. and the possibility that interest rates could remain higher for longer.

While falling crude prices may ease inflationary pressure, analysts caution that:

 

1. supply chains remain fragile,
2. energy markets are still vulnerable,
3. and geopolitical risks have not fully disappeared.

As a result, interest rate volatility may continue to dominate trading conditions throughout the second half of 2026.

China’s Crackdown on Cross-Border Trading Creates Additional Uncertainty
Alongside geopolitical developments, investors are also monitoring regulatory risks emerging from China.

Chinese authorities launched a major crackdown on illicit cross-border stock trading in an effort to reduce capital outflows and strengthen domestic financial controls.

Regulators imposed heavy fines on online brokerages, including:

 

1. Futu Holdings Ltd
2. Up Fintech Holding Ltd

Authorities also ordered illegal offshore trading accounts to be liquidated within two years.

The move triggered:

 

1. sharp declines in Chinese-linked technology stocks,
2. increased uncertainty surrounding Hong Kong market liquidity,
3. and concerns over tighter restrictions on international investing.

For traders, the crackdown highlights how regulatory policy remains an important driver of market volatility, particularly within Chinese and emerging market assets.

Key Market Themes Traders Should Watch
As markets continue reacting to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, traders should closely monitor several major themes:

 

1. US-Iran Negotiations: Any confirmation of a finalised agreement could trigger further declines in oil prices and support risk assets globally.
2. Strait of Hormuz Reopening: The speed and scale of shipping normalisation will heavily influence energy markets and inflation expectations.
3. Central Bank Policy: Inflation data and comments from major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, could significantly impact currencies, equities, gold, and bonds.
4. Oil Market Volatility: Despite recent declines, crude oil remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions.
5. Chinese Regulatory Measures: Further restrictions on capital flows or overseas investing could impact Asian equities and broader investor sentiment.

Market Outlook: Optimism Returns, but Risks Remain
Global markets are beginning to price in the possibility of a more stable geopolitical environment after months of uncertainty.

Lower oil prices, improving risk sentiment, and hopes for easing inflation have created a supportive backdrop for equities and other risk assets. However, traders should remain cautious as negotiations remain ongoing and geopolitical developments can shift rapidly.

At the same time, central bank policy, inflation trends, and regulatory risks, particularly from China, continue to create an environment where volatility may remain elevated across asset classes.

For traders, maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring macroeconomic developments will remain essential as markets navigate one of the most complex global environments seen in recent years.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th May 2026.

Oil Surges on US-Iran Conflict: How Stocks, Dollar, and Global Markets React.

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Global Markets React to Rising Middle East Tensions
Global financial markets turned volatile after renewed US military strikes in southern Iran and ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Investor sentiment shifted rapidly between optimism over a potential peace agreement and concern that escalating tensions could prolong disruptions to global energy supplies.

The result was a sharp rotation across oil, equities, currencies, bonds, and precious metals, with investors reassessing inflation risks and global growth expectations.

Oil Prices Become the Key Market Driver
Oil markets reacted immediately to geopolitical developments, highlighting the sensitivity of global energy flows.

Brent crude initially fell sharply on expectations that US-Iran negotiations were progressing and that a potential agreement could ease supply risks. However, sentiment reversed after reports of renewed military activity, with oil prices rebounding toward higher levels.

The volatility reflects a key market concern: whether a diplomatic breakthrough can stabilise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or whether disruptions to global supply chains will persist.

Energy traders remain focused on the risk that prolonged instability could keep oil prices elevated, adding pressure to global inflation.

Stock Markets Turn Mixed Amid Uncertainty
Global equities reflected the same uncertainty.

In the United States, ^GSPC futures initially rose on hopes that lower oil prices could ease inflation and support economic growth. However, gains moderated as geopolitical risks resurfaced. Technology stocks showed relative resilience, supported by ongoing optimism around artificial intelligence and long-term growth in semiconductor demand.

In Asia, Japan's N225 declined as higher oil prices raised concerns for energy-import-dependent economies. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and South Korea showed more stability, supported by technology sector strength.

European equities also remained cautious as investors weighed slowing growth against persistent energy inflation risks.

The US Dollar Strengthens on Safe-Haven Demand
The US dollar strengthens as investors move into safer assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Demand for dollar-denominated assets increased as markets reassessed risk, while expectations of persistent inflation supported the currency further.

Rising oil prices also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer, supporting US Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.

As a result, major currencies such as the euro and Japanese yen came under pressure.

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Gold and Bonds Reflect Risk Sentiment Shifts
Gold initially benefited from safe-haven flows but later lost momentum as the dollar strengthened and bond yields stabilised.

Meanwhile, Treasury markets reacted to changing inflation expectations, with yields fluctuating alongside oil prices.

The key driver remains energy inflation, which continues to shape central bank expectations globally.

Key Market Outlook
Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.

The main focus going forward is whether diplomatic negotiations can stabilise energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Until clarity emerges, volatility across oil, stocks, currencies, and bonds is expected to remain elevated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th May 2026.

ECB, RBNZ and Goldman Sachs Renew Support for Market Trends.

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Despite the US breaking the US-Iran ceasefire, the Middle East crisis remains the same, with negotiations continuing. Investors are not pricing in an escalation in the conflict while negotiations continue and the White House seems positive.

In particular, the US stock market remains in a bullish trend and continues to break into new all-time highs. Goldman Sachs, within the past few hours, made public its adjustments to its target price for the S&P 500. The target price for the S&P 500 has risen to $8,000, more than 6% higher than the current price.

In addition to this, the currency market is also experiencing strong volatility during this morning’s Asian session due to comments from central banks and new economic releases.

Euro - ECB June Rate Hike
Over the past month, the Euro has come under pressure from energy prices. Europe is heavily reliant on importing energy products and commodities, and its importers are limited due to shutting out Russia. Due to this, investors are reluctant to increase their exposure to the Euro. However, comments from the past 24 hours are providing some support.

ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras has signalled that a June rate hike is now highly likely. This reinforces the market view that the European Central Bank may need to tighten policy again if inflationary pressures persist. His comments suggest the ECB is becoming increasingly concerned about incoming economic data, especially inflation expectations and the risk that higher prices become more entrenched.

Even though Mr Stournaras is the latest ECB member to signal a rate adjustment, he is not the only member. Both Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel have recently made similar statements. For markets, this keeps attention firmly on the June ECB meeting, as a rate hike could support the Euro.

The Euro is the second-best-performing currency during this morning’s Asian session and is increasing in value against the GBP, US Dollar, and Japanese Yen. The EURUSD is trading above the key moving averages on short-medium term timeframes and has broken above the previous high. For this reason, technical analysis provides a bullish bias, but traders are slightly cautious of the resistance level at 1.16519.

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar is the best-performing currency this morning after finding support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s vote split.

The RBNZ held its interest rates at 2.25%, but the voting split was much more hawkish than a simple hold suggests. The voting split was a 3-3 vote, with Governor Anna Breman using her casting vote to keep rates unchanged. As there were three Monetary Policy Committee members opting for an immediate 25-bp hike, investors are expecting a hawkish path for the central bank.

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HFM - NZDUSD 30-Minute Chart

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, is the worst-performing currency of the session so far. The AUD is trading 0.26% lower, while the NZD is gaining a considerable 0.65%. The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of 2026 so far due to positive economic data and its monetary policy outlook. However, recent data is underperforming, pressuring the currency.

This morning, Australia’s inflation rate fell from 4.6% to 4.2%, lower than analysts’ expectations of 4.4%. The monthly rate was 0.4%, again lower than expectations.

S&P 500 - Goldman Sachs Increases Target to $8000
The S&P 500 declined slightly on Tuesday, while the NASDAQ continued to rise. The NASDAQ found support from Micron Technology stock, which rose almost 20% in a single session. However, this may provide an opportunity for traders who are cautious about trading at all time-highs. The price of the retracement from Tuesday was relatively weak and is not indicating a change in trend so far. This morning, the price is again trading higher, but is not yet signalling a bullish price movement.

In order for buy signals to strengthen, traders will be looking for the price to rise above $7,539.30. On Tuesday, 44% of the S&P 500 rose in value, and the most volatile stocks were bullish assets. For this reason, traders continue to keep a bullish view of the S&P 500.

In addition to this, the VIX index is trading lower as is the put-call Ratio, which has fallen to 0.64. This indicates that the market continues to hold a risk-on appetite.

Lastly, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to $8,000 from $7,600. This is mainly because it expects stronger corporate earnings to continue driving the index higher, but also because of the bullish trend. The bank said earnings growth has powered the S&P 500’s return so far this year and expects that trend to continue. However, other economists advise that this is only possible with an end to the Middle East crisis.


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HFM - S&P 500 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:

1. The Euro is finding support after several ECB policymakers signalled that a June rate hike is increasingly likely.
2. The New Zealand Dollar is outperforming after the RBNZ’s hawkish 3-3 vote split raised expectations of future rate hikes.
3. The Australian Dollar is under pressure after weaker-than-expected inflation data reduced support for a more hawkish monetary policy outlook.
4. The S&P 500 remains bullish, supported by positive market sentiment and Goldman Sachs raising its target to $8,000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th May 2026.

Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Fall as Hormuz Strikes Push Oil Prices Higher.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...?file=AI-tools
US Stock Futures Slip as Markets React to Hormuz Strikes and Rising Oil Prices
US stock futures moved lower on Thursday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against another wave of strong AI-driven corporate earnings.

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed, with losses near 0.8%, as traders reacted cautiously to reports of fresh US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

The renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf pushed oil prices sharply higher and reignited concerns about inflation, global energy supply disruptions, and the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.

Why Markets Fell Today
Investor sentiment turned cautious after reports confirmed that US forces conducted new strikes targeting military sites and drone threats near the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

The situation escalated further after Iran reportedly responded with retaliatory actions targeting US-linked military infrastructure in the region. At the same time, Washington introduced fresh sanctions aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to profit from traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although negotiations between the US and Iran are still ongoing, markets are increasingly concerned that diplomatic talks may fail, prolonging supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty.

As a result:

 

1. Oil prices surged
2. Treasury yields climbed
3. Technology stocks lost momentum in pre-market trading
4. Investors shifted toward defensive positioning

Oil Prices Spike Following Renewed Persian Gulf Tensions
Brent crude climbed above $97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $92 per barrel after the latest developments in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important shipping routes globally, handling a significant portion of the world’s oil exports. Any disruption to flows through the waterway immediately impacts energy markets and inflation expectations worldwide.

Analysts warned that if negotiations collapse entirely, oil prices could move substantially higher during the summer months, particularly if global inventories continue tightening.

The latest rise in crude prices also revived fears that higher energy costs may keep inflation elevated longer than expected.

Federal Reserve Inflation Data in Focus
Investors are now turning their attention toward the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

The data could significantly influence expectations regarding future interest rate decisions.

Higher-than-expected inflation readings would likely strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated for longer or potentially consider additional tightening measures later in 2026.

Rising oil prices further complicate the inflation outlook, as energy costs often feed into broader consumer prices.

Bond Yields Rise as Inflation Concerns Return
US Treasury yields climbed alongside oil prices as markets priced in renewed inflation risks.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose toward 4.50%, reflecting investor concerns that persistent geopolitical instability and elevated energy prices could delay potential monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.

Historically, rising bond yields tend to pressure growth-oriented sectors such as technology because higher interest rates reduce the present value of future earnings.

Global Markets Turn Lower
Asian markets traded mostly lower following the renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s KOSPI, Chinese equities, and Australian stocks all posted declines as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.

Meanwhile, gold prices eased slightly despite geopolitical uncertainty, as stronger Treasury yields limited demand for non-yielding assets.



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Market Outlook: AI Optimism vs Geopolitical Risk
Financial markets are currently balancing two major themes:

 

1. Strong optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and technology growth
2. Rising geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions

The AI trade continues to provide strong support for equity markets, particularly within semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software.

However, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz present a significant macroeconomic risk that could fuel inflation, pressure central banks, and increase market volatility in the coming weeks.

Investors will now closely monitor:

 

1. US-Iran diplomatic negotiations
2. Oil price movements
3. Federal Reserve inflation data
4. Treasury yield trends
5. Upcoming earnings reports from major retailers and technology firms

As markets enter the final stretch of earnings season, volatility may remain elevated while traders assess whether AI-driven growth can continue offsetting mounting geopolitical uncertainty.

AI Earnings Continue Supporting Technology Stocks
Despite geopolitical concerns, the artificial intelligence boom continues to support investor optimism across the technology sector.

Several major companies delivered strong quarterly earnings results, highlighting robust demand tied to AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and enterprise technology spending.

Snowflake Surges After Massive AWS Deal
One of the biggest market movers was Snowflake, whose shares surged more than 30% in after-hours trading.

The company exceeded Wall Street expectations and announced a massive $6 billion multi-year infrastructure agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The deal reinforced confidence that AI-related spending remains strong despite broader economic uncertainty.

The results also demonstrated that businesses continue increasing investments in cloud computing and AI-powered data infrastructure.

Marvell and HP Highlight AI Hardware Demand
Marvell Technology and HP also posted earnings that pointed toward continued strength in AI-related spending.

Demand for chips, servers, and AI-capable computing systems remains elevated as corporations accelerate AI adoption across industries.

However, not all technology earnings impressed investors equally.

Salesforce Forecast Raises AI Competition Concerns
Salesforce reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, but investors reacted cautiously to the company’s softer guidance.

Markets are increasingly concerned that rapid advancements in generative AI could disrupt traditional software business models and intensify competition across the enterprise technology sector.

Final Thoughts
Today’s market action highlights the increasingly fragile balance between bullish AI-driven momentum and global geopolitical instability.

While strong earnings from major technology companies continue supporting equity valuations, renewed tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have reminded investors how quickly geopolitical events can shift market sentiment.

The combination of rising oil prices, inflation uncertainty, and central bank expectations is likely to remain the dominant market theme heading into the summer months.

For traders and investors alike, risk management and close monitoring of macroeconomic developments will remain critical in navigating today’s highly volatile financial landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th May 2026.

Forex Market Analysis Today: FX, Gold, Oil & Stock Index Outlook.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...kets3_Featured
Overview
Global markets are entering today's session with major stock indices trading near record highs, oil prices under pressure, and currency markets reacting to shifting central bank expectations. For forex traders and index day traders, the focus should be on the dominant macroeconomic themes driving market sentiment rather than attempting to trade every economic release.

This daily forex market analysis examines the key factors influencing FX markets, stock indices, gold prices, and oil markets, while highlighting the most important economic events and trading opportunities to watch throughout the day.

Forex Market Outlook: What Is Driving Markets Today?
Middle East Ceasefire Supports Risk Sentiment
One of the most important drivers of market sentiment today is the ongoing discussion surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire extension and efforts to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global equity markets have responded positively, while oil prices are on track for their steepest weekly decline in nearly two months as traders price in the possibility of improved shipping conditions and reduced geopolitical risk.

For traders, developments in the Middle East remain a major source of potential volatility. Positive headlines tend to support risk assets such as stock indices and commodity-linked currencies, while negative developments can quickly trigger demand for safe-haven assets.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Continue to Lead Higher
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently recorded fresh all-time highs, supported by lower Treasury yields and continued investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and technology stocks. European indices, including the DAX and FTSE 100, remain near the upper end of their recent trading ranges, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment across global markets.

While the prevailing trend remains bullish, traders should remain alert to potential profit-taking or ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ reactions, particularly around major economic releases and geopolitical headlines.

Inflation and Central Bank Expectations Remain Key
Although inflation has eased from previous peaks, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Recent economic data suggests moderate growth across major economies, while central banks continue to balance inflation concerns against slowing economic momentum.

For forex traders, inflation data and interest rate expectations remain critical drivers of currency valuations. Any unexpected change in the outlook for future rate cuts could significantly impact the US dollar and broader market sentiment.

Economic Calendar Today: Key Events for Forex Traders
Today’s economic calendar contains several releases capable of generating volatility across forex pairs, stock indices, commodities, and bond markets.

High-Impact Economic Events
United States

1. Advance Goods Trade Balance
2. Wholesale Inventories
3. Retail Inventories
4. Chicago PMI
5. Manufacturing-related data
6. Construction Spending

Eurozone

1. M3 Money Supply
2. Loans to Households and Businesses
3. Unemployment Rate

United Kingdom

1. Nationwide House Price Index
2. Final Manufacturing PMI

Asia

1. Japan Industrial Production
2. China PMI Data

Which Events Matter Most?
For day traders, the highest-priority releases are those capable of influencing growth expectations, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy.

Tier 1 Events

 

1. US PMI releases
2. ISM-related data
3. Major spending and production reports

Tier 2 Events

 

1. Eurozone unemployment data
2. European PMI releases
3. UK housing market data

Tier 3 Events

 

1. Minor revisions
2. Low-impact sentiment surveys
3. Government bond auctions

US releases during the New York session are likely to generate the largest moves in the US dollar, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Treasury yields.

Stock Index Analysis: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DAX Outlook
S&P 500 Outlook
The S&P 500 remains the benchmark for global risk sentiment. Trading above previous highs continues to attract momentum buyers, although stretched positioning increases the probability of short-term pullbacks.

Traders should watch whether support holds above previous breakout levels. Sustained strength could encourage further upside, while failed breakouts may trigger profit-taking.

Nasdaq Forecast
Technology stocks continue to dominate market leadership, with AI-related companies remaining a primary source of strength. As long as Treasury yields remain contained, the Nasdaq is likely to remain supported.

However, any sharp rise in yields or hawkish central bank commentary could disproportionately affect technology valuations.

DAX and European Markets
The DAX remains in a constructive uptrend but remains more sensitive to changes in energy prices and European economic data. Oil market volatility and Eurozone releases may have a larger impact on European equities than on US markets.

Potential Trading Scenarios
Breakout Continuation
If markets maintain positive sentiment and major indices hold above recent highs, pullbacks towards previous resistance levels could offer opportunities for trend-following traders.

Reversal Setup
Should geopolitical tensions escalate or economic data significantly disappoint expectations, failed breakouts and lower highs may present short-selling opportunities.

Forex Trading Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY
EURUSD Outlook
The euro has benefited from recent dollar weakness and improving risk sentiment. If US economic data remains soft and Treasury yields continue to ease, EURUSD could remain supported throughout the session.

Key drivers include:

 

1. US economic releases
2. Eurozone unemployment data
3. Treasury yield movements

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GBPUSD Analysis
Sterling remains sensitive to domestic economic data and broader dollar sentiment. Positive UK data combined with a weaker US dollar could continue supporting GBPUSD.

Traders should monitor:

 

1. UK PMI data
2. Housing market figures
3. US macroeconomic releases

USDJPY Forecast
USDJPY remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs due to ongoing intervention concerns from Japanese authorities.

The yen has weakened toward levels that previously prompted official intervention, increasing the risk of sudden volatility.

Forex traders should:

 

1. Reduce leverage when trading JPY pairs
2. Monitor comments from Japanese officials
3. Be prepared for rapid reversals around intervention-sensitive levels

Commodity Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East ceasefire negotiations.

While expectations of improved shipping conditions have pressured crude prices lower, uncertainty remains. Any setback in negotiations could trigger a rapid reversal.

Oil traders should expect:

 

1. Increased headline-driven volatility
2. Potential intraday whipsaws
3. Strong correlation with risk sentiment

Gold Price Analysis
Gold continues to balance two competing forces:

 

1. Lower Treasury yields supporting prices
2. Improved risk sentiment reducing safe-haven demand

If yields continue to decline, gold may remain supported. However, stronger-than-expected US economic data could lift yields and weigh on the precious metal.

Gold traders should closely monitor:

 

1. US yields
2. Federal Reserve expectations
3. Geopolitical developments

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Risk Management Tips for Day Traders
Successful trading is not just about finding opportunities; it is also about managing risk effectively.

Before the Trading Session

1. Mark the previous day’s highs and lows.
2. Identify key support and resistance levels.
3. Note all major economic releases.
4. Build a focused watchlist of key instruments.

During the Trading Session

1. Trade in line with the dominant macro narrative.
2. Use technical analysis to refine entries and exits.
3. Reduce position size during periods of elevated volatility.
4. Avoid overtrading around major news events.

Protecting Trading Capital

1. Always use hard stop-loss orders.
2. Set a maximum daily loss limit.
3. Avoid excessive leverage.
4. Monitor correlation risk across positions.

For example, being long the S&P 500, long EURUSD, and short USDJPY may effectively represent the same risk-on market view.

What Is Moving the Forex Market Today?
The forex market today is being driven primarily by three themes:

 

1. Middle East ceasefire developments and oil market reactions.
2. Record highs in global stock indices and improving risk sentiment.
3. Ongoing adjustments to central bank interest rate expectations.

These themes are influencing currency pairs, stock indices, gold prices, and commodities simultaneously, making them essential for traders to monitor throughout the session.

Final Market Outlook
The overall market environment remains constructive, supported by record-high equity markets, softer bond yields, and improving geopolitical sentiment. However, traders should remain cautious, as headline-driven reversals and unexpected economic data releases can quickly change market direction.

For forex traders and index day traders, the most effective approach today is to focus on a small number of high-probability opportunities, remain aligned with the dominant market narrative, and maintain disciplined risk management throughout the trading session.

By combining macroeconomic awareness with technical analysis and prudent risk control, traders can better navigate today’s market conditions while protecting themselves against sudden volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd June 2026.

NASDAQ Pulls Back, But AI Stocks Continue to Attract Demand.

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The NASDAQ fell during this morning’s Asian session after the US and Iran put negotiations on hold. Regardless of the decline, the demand for AI and tech-stocks continues. US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz have kept markets on edge, but negotiations had not stopped before today. However, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon are intensifying, which is why Iran has taken the decision to pause negotiations.

The new developments are applying some pressure on market sentiment, but the demand for AI remains strong. For this reason, the downward price movement was limited. During yesterday’s US session, Alphabet, one of the most successful tech companies, announced a stock sale of $80 billion to raise capital for AI. So far, the stock has slightly dipped during this morning’s pre-trading hours. However, traders will be closely watching price movement after the market opens.

Alphabet to Raise $80 Billion for AI
Alphabet stocks has been one of the best-performing of the past five years, increasing more than 200%. A large part of the company’s recent success is from the demand for AI products. Late during the US session on Monday, the company announced stock sales of $80 billion in order to raise capital for AI.

Alphabet plans to invest $80 billion in AI-related infrastructure, data centres, chips, and cloud capacity to support growing AI demand. The company will primarily use the spending to expand its AI capabilities across Google Search, Gemini, Google Cloud, and Workspace. The company views AI as the next major growth driver and is accelerating investment despite concerns over rising capital expenditure.

For the move to be a success, the company must convince the market it can monetise AI products. However, in the short-term, a boost for Alphabet’s move is Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to invest $10 billion in the stock sales.

NASDAQ Bullish Stocks
In addition to Alphabet, other vital stocks for the NASDAQ are also delivering positive news. Cisco stock, which is the 15th most influential for the NASDAQ, has risen almost 60% in 2026. Bank of America increased its target price from $114.00 to $135.00 and maintained a buy rating, noting that Cisco is well positioned to benefit from the shift from 400G to 800G optical networking.

The current stock price is $121.33 and did not dip on Monday like most stocks. Demand linked to AI infrastructure has grown sharply, while Cisco’s order book has strengthened, including a fibre-optic order worth over $1.0 billion from Acacia Research.

The best-performing stock on Monday was Arm Holdings plc, which holds a weight of approximately 1.05%. Arm Holdings jumped around 15% on Monday, mainly because Nvidia announced a new AI PC chip using Arm-based CPU designs.

US-Iran Negotiations
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is intensifying, and political experts now believe Israel will aim to push the buffer zone beyond the Litani River. In response, Iran has told the US it will not negotiate further. Due to this, US attention has turned to Hezbollah and Israel attempting to apply pressure to achieve a ceasefire.

President Trump has generally made positive comments and said he will achieve a ceasefire. However, the Israeli Prime Minister’s accounts have been less positive. This development dampened sentiment within the market, as oil prices have risen from $89 per barrel to $96 before retracing.

However, despite this, demand remains high and the market continues to price in an end to the conflict.

NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis

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HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

During the Asian session, the price fell 0.74% and fell below the day’s VWAP. However, the bearish price movement was short-lived and is now trading above the VWAP and above the key moving averages. For example, on the 5-minute chart, the price is increasing above 200-bar moving average.

Though, if the price finds resistance at $30,570.00, the price will form a head and shoulders pattern, which is known to be a bearish indication. However, on medium-term timeframes, the price maintains its bullish bias. It trades above 55.00 on the RSI and remains above key trend lines.

Key Takeaways:

1. NASDAQ dips on geopolitical tensions: The index fell after Iran paused negotiations with the US, increasing uncertainty.
2. AI demand continues to support tech stocks: Despite weaker sentiment, strong AI-related investment and earnings expectations limited downside pressure.
3. Alphabet commits $80 billion to AI: The company plans a major expansion of its AI infrastructure, with Berkshire Hathaway reportedly backing the move with a $10 billion investment.
4. AI-linked stocks remain strong: Cisco gained analyst support on growing AI networking demand.
5. Arm Holdings surged 15% after Nvidia unveiled a new AI PC chip using Arm technology.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd June 2026.

US Dollar Surges as Employment Data Sees Rate Cut Hopes Fade.

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The US Dollar regains momentum due to positive employment data fading any likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026. The US JOLTS Job Openings data made public on Tuesday afternoon read considerably higher than market expectations. As a result, the US Dollar Index was quick to increase in value, with the bullish momentum continuing during this morning’s Asian session.

The Middle East tensions are also partially supporting the price of the US Dollar due to its safe-haven status. According to reports, negotiations had been put on hold by Iran due to its dissatisfaction with Israel. However, according to Axios, the negotiations are back on track after President Trump pressured Netanyahu to avoid further escalations. Nonetheless, the higher tensions are triggering higher oil prices, which again are supporting the US Dollar.

JOLTS Job Openings - US Dollar Finds Further Support
The US JOLTS Job Openings rose to their highest since December 2026 and came in almost 800,000 above expectations. Analysts were expecting a figure in the region of 6.70-7.60 million new job vacancies, whereas the figure came in at 7.62 million.

This afternoon, the US will also release the ADP NFP Change and the ISM Services PMI. Both releases will also further impact the Federal Reserve rate expectations and therefore also the US Dollar. Currently, there is less than a 1% possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2026, according to the CME. According to the CME, there is a 42% chance of no adjustments this year, a 1% chance of a small cut, and a 57% chance of a hike.

The market’s hawkish expectations for monetary policy are supporting the price of the US Dollar. While inflation is rising and the employment sector remains resilient, there is little need for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates.

This afternoon, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will also speak regarding the 2027 budget. Investors will closely monitor comments from Mr Bessent, and they could potentially impact the Dollar and US Markets.

AUDUSD - Australian GDP Underperforms
While the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day, one of the currencies coming under pressure is the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar had been one of the best-performing of the previous days and of the year so far. However, a string of poor economic releases is putting the currency and the Reserve Bank of Australia under pressure.

For this reason, the AUDUSD is trading 0.25% lower during this morning’s Asian session. Earlier in the day, Australia released its quarterly Gross Domestic Product. The GDP figure was 0.3%, lower than the market’s expectations of 0.5%. In addition to this, last week’s inflation figures also fell from 4.6% to 4.2%, again lower than expectations and pressuring the RBA not to become overly hawkish.


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HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart

The AUD still remains the best-performing currency of the year, but poor economic data can support a correction in favour of the USD. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading at the 100-bar SMA and slightly below the 75-bar EMA. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 46.20, slightly above the sell zone.

On smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute chart, the price trades below the 200-bar SMA and with clear lower lows. However, on this timeframe, the RSI is again trading above 45.00. For this reason, the AUDUSD is showing a minor bearish bias, but not yet a clear bearish signal. However, if the price falls below 0.71565, sell signals may potentially materialise.

Crude Oil - Trump Rebukes Netanyahu
The price of crude oil continues to increase in value as the sentiment towards de-escalation in the Middle East remains shaky. Israel carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon despite a reported US-backed de-escalation effort. Reuters reported that Israel struck south Lebanon after holding off on attacks against Beirut due to US pressure.

Currently, the market is unsure whether the US is brokering a ceasefire or simply a series of actions to de-escalate. So far, Israel is holding off on attacking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah has accepted a US proposal to stop attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel avoiding strikes on Beirut and its suburbs. Fighting, however, has continued in the south.

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HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

Nonetheless, the price of Crude Oil continues to rise, with charts showing clear buy signals on smaller timeframes. For example, the RSI continues to rise above 65.00, and the price trades above the VWAP. Nonetheless, $100 per barrel is a clear psychological price for traders and can act as a resistance level.

Key Takeaways:

1. JOLTS Job Openings exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the US labour market and boosting the Dollar.
2. Markets now see almost no chance of Fed rate cuts in 2026, with expectations shifting towards rates remaining unchanged or even rising.
3. Australia's GDP growth missed forecasts, increasing pressure on the RBA and helping drive AUD/USD lower.
4. Uncertainty around Israel-Lebanon de-escalation efforts is keeping oil prices elevated, while safe-haven demand continues to support the US Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th June 2026.

US Dollar Surges While Broadcom Triggers a Tech Sell-Off.

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An interesting 24 hours for the financial markets, with strong new US economic data, a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, and Broadcom earnings. The US Dollar saw a significant rise on Wednesday and is now trading close to a two-month high. The latest US economic data, higher oil prices, and the lack of progress with Iran support the US Dollar.

In addition to the US Dollar and oil rising, stock fell 1% as traders took a slightly more risk-off approach. This is due to weaker Broadcom earnings and interest rate expectations.

Broadcom Earnings Fail to Meet Analysts’ Extreme Predictions
Broadcom is the sixth most influential stock for the NASDAQ and holds a weight of almost 5%. The stock is declining more than 12%, with the price falling from $481 to $413. The reason for the decline was the latest earnings report, which was made public after the market closed.

Even though the quarterly earnings report did not meet analysts’ expectations, most analysts are advising that the predictions may have been slightly overoptimistic and the official figures remain positive. Nonetheless, the stock continues to come under pressure from selling pressure as do NVIDIA, Micron Technology, and AMD stocks.

Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 results, with revenue up 48% YoY to $22.19 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.44, and adjusted EBITDA of $15.24 billion. The main driver was AI, with AI semiconductor revenue rising 143% YoY to $10.8 billion. For the next quarter, Broadcom guided revenue of around $29.4 billion and AI semiconductor revenue of $16.0 billion. This was the main sticking point for investors, who had been expecting greater guidance for the next quarter.

NASDAQ - Broadcom’s Forward Guidance Pressures Tech Stocks
The NASDAQ fell 0.80% on Wednesday, opened with a bearish gap this morning, and is falling a further 0.18% so far. The decline is largely due to the decline among semiconductor stocks, particularly Broadcom, which is witnessing extreme volatility.

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HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

However, the stronger US Dollar and higher oil prices are damaging demand for stocks, particularly while index trading is at an all-time high. A fear for investors is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further month. As a result, oil prices will remain higher for longer, and this is impacting interest rate expectations and can pressure GDP growth.

According to the Chicago exchange, the market’s expectations for interest rate hikes in 2026 have risen over the past month from 32.9% to 46.6%. The increase in the likelihood of hawkish interest rate adjustments is pressuring demand for stocks.

The VIX index, which rose 1.40% this morning, and the put-all ratio, which increased for the first time since 15 May, also point to sell signals. The put-all ratio also suggests that the stock market may be overstretched. However, the component percentage is yet to indicate a full bearish signal. 59% of the most influential stocks are decreasing in value, not enough to support a sell signal.

If a further two stocks turn negative, the NASDAQ component percentage will also indicate a sell. Technical analysis, on the other hand, is providing a sell signal on smaller timeframes. The price trading below the VWAP and moving averages also shows this.

The US Dollar - ADP Employment Change Exceeds Expectations
The US Dollar is trading slightly lower this morning, but is considerably higher than yesterday’s open. The worst-performing currencies of the day so far are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar. The recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI were key reasons for the Dollar’s rise.

April JOLTS data showed US job openings rising from 6.887 million to 7.618 million, well above forecasts of 6.860 million, signalling continued labour-market strength. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Change also came in higher than expectations, again supporting the currency further. The ADP NFP Change came in at 122,000, higher than expectations and the previous month. The ISM Services Index also read higher than expectations.

Markets now await May employment data, which could increase expectations of tighter Fed policy if results are strong. The NFP change and unemployment rate will be made public tomorrow afternoon. Stronger data can again further support the Dollar.

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HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:

1. The US Dollar strengthened after stronger US labour and services data reduced expectations of Fed support.
2. The recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI was a key reason for the Dollar’s rise.
3. Broadcom’s results were positive, but its AI guidance disappointed high investor expectations, pressuring semiconductor stocks.
4. The NASDAQ weakened as tech stocks fell, the US Dollar rose, and oil prices increased.
5. Markets look to May NFP and unemployment data, which could further influence Fed rate expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th June 2026.

Gold at a Crossroads: All Eyes on NFP Friday.

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As May’s NFP Change and the unemployment rate approaches for the US, Gold prices again take a dip. The price of the safe-haven asset has been forming a descending triangle pattern, indicating pressure on demand, but also forming a clear support level. The price movement of Gold and its outlook will particularly depend on the upcoming employment data.

NFP Friday - What To Expect
Market experts are expecting May’s NFP Employment Change to come in at 85,000, which is 30,000 lower than the previous month. Even though the market is expecting a lower employment change, a figure of 85,000 is still higher than the six-month average of 74,000. Traders can keep up to date with the latest releases with HFM's Calendar.

The market also continues to expect the US unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% and for the average salary growth to be 0.3%. If the NFP reads higher than expectations, markets will expect the Dollar to potentially rise and Gold to simultaneously fall. Pressure on Gold will particularly rise if NFP comes in higher while the Unemployment Rate drops to 4.2%. However, traders should note that this would all depend on the data released.

So far, this week’s employment data seems skewed toward an upside surprise or in line with current market expectations. The reason for this is that the recent ADP Employment figures beat expectations and rose to a 13-month high. In addition to this, the JOLTS Job Openings also came in considerably higher than expectations. However, yesterday’s Weekly Unemployment Claims rose to a four-month high of 225,000.

The descending triangle pattern seen on Gold is also known to be a potential indication of downward price movement. Therefore, technical analysis will also be in line with the fundamentals if the US employment data is positive. However, a lower employment change and a higher unemployment rate can have the opposite effect.
Gold Holds Neutral, But What Signals Are Emerging?
On NFP Friday, the price of Gold fell during the Asian session by 1.09% to the $4,426.65 support level before rebounding at the London open. Nonetheless, the price continues to maintain lower highs and trades lower as the NFP release approaches.

The US Dollar Index is also declining this morning, which can provide some support for Gold. However, a key factor will also be bond yields, which the US is struggling to keep below 4.50%. US bond yields in the last two weeks of May fell from their recent highs, but in June they have not fallen further. In June, bond yields have continued to trade sideways. How bond yields react after the NFP release will particularly impact Gold. If bond yields rise, gold may come under pressure, while lower bond yields can support the price.

Gold trading remains active, although speculative positions continue to decline. This suggests that gold is moving away from its risk-driven investment appeal and returning to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

According to the latest CFTC report, net speculative gold positions fell from 159.8 thousand to 154.3 thousand last week. However, investors still hold large buy positions. Buyers held 124.5 thousand positions, while sellers held 27.6 thousand. Last week, buyers slightly increased their positions, while sellers reduced theirs.

Furthermore, what remains key for Gold is the possibility of an interest rate hike declining. Over the past 24 hours the possibility of a rate hike has remained at 46%, but investors will be watching how this changes after the NFP release.

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HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

The price of Gold continues to remain below the key moving averages on the 1-hour and 2-hour charts. However, the price trades at 48.74 on the RSI, which is a clear neutral indication, meaning the price is not witnessing a clear sell signal. However, if the price declines below $4,442.15, Gold may see sell signals strengthen. If the price rises above $4,484.80, buy signals can potentially materialise.

However, indications provided by technical analysis will also need to be in line with the NFP release, the US Dollar reaction, as well as the bond market.

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold remains under pressure ahead of the NFP release, with the price forming a descending triangle pattern.
2. A stronger-than-expected NFP reading could support the US Dollar and pressure Gold, especially if unemployment falls and bond yields rise.
3. A weaker NFP figure or higher unemployment rate could support Gold, particularly if the Dollar and US bond yields move lower after the release.
4. Gold’s technical signal remains neutral for now. A move below $4,442.15 could strengthen sell signals, while a move above $4,484.80 could support buy signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th June 2026.

Oil Prices Surge as Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates: Stocks, Gold, and Treasury Yields React.

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Global markets opened the week in risk-off mode as renewed military tensions between Israel and Iran reignited concerns about energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.

Oil prices led market moves, with Brent crude climbing toward $97 per barrel after fresh Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran. Investors are increasingly worried that a prolonged conflict could disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

The renewed escalation has quickly shifted market sentiment. Just days ago, traders were optimistic that diplomatic efforts could contain the conflict. Instead, markets are now repricing higher geopolitical risks, stronger inflation pressures, and the possibility that central banks may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Oil Prices Jump as Supply Risks Return
Brent crude rose more than 4% during Monday’s trading session, while WTI crude climbed above $94 per barrel.

The primary concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass. Any disruption to shipping activity could significantly tighten global energy markets and push oil prices higher.

Even without a complete closure of the waterway, rising insurance costs, shipping restrictions, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are adding a substantial risk premium to crude prices.

Stock Markets Slide as Investors Reduce Risk
The rise in oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions triggered broad-based selling across global equity markets.

Asian markets suffered the biggest losses:

 

1. Nikkei 225 fell nearly 4%
2. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped sharply
3. Taiwan’s Taiex lost more than 3%

European markets also opened lower, with the DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE 100 all trading in negative territory.

Technology and AI-related stocks led the decline as investors rotated away from high-growth sectors and into more defensive areas of the market.

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Treasury Yields Rise Following Strong US Data
Markets continue to digest stronger-than-expected US employment data released last week.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer than previously anticipated.

The combination of resilient economic growth and rising oil prices has increased concerns about inflation, pushing Treasury yields higher:

 

1. US 10-year Treasury Yield: approximately 4.57%
2. US 2-year Treasury Yield: approximately 4.16%

Gold Fails to Benefit from Safe-Haven Demand
Despite the escalation in geopolitical tensions, gold prices moved lower.

Rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar have outweighed traditional safe-haven demand, highlighting the market’s focus on inflation and interest rate expectations.

Gold remains vulnerable to further downside if yields continue rising.



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What Traders Should Watch Next
This week’s market direction will largely depend on:

 

1. Developments between Israel and Iran
2. Any changes to shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz
3. US CPI inflation data
4. Federal Reserve communication ahead of the next FOMC meeting

If tensions continue escalating, oil prices could remain elevated and volatility across financial markets may increase further.

For a deeper look at how the conflict could impact inflation, central bank policy, and global growth, read our analysis: Economic Impact of the Israel-Iran Conflict.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th June 2026.

Traders Await US Inflation as Bond Markets Challenge the Fed.

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Executive Summary

1. Rising expectations that global interest rates may remain higher for longer.
2. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Positioning ahead of tomorrow's crucial US CPI inflation report.

While risk sentiment has improved slightly after Iran and Israel signalled a temporary halt to direct attacks, markets remain cautious. Treasury yields are elevated, oil remains historically high despite today's pullback, and traders are increasingly questioning whether the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may eventually need to tighten policy rather than cut rates.

For retail CFD traders, this creates a market where currencies, commodities, bonds, and equity indices are all highly sensitive to inflation expectations and geopolitical headlines.



What Happened Overnight?
Asian markets traded with a cautiously positive tone overnight as investors welcomed signs of reduced military activity between Iran and Israel. Equity markets found some support from improving risk sentiment, although gains remained limited as traders remained focused on inflation and interest-rate expectations.

One of the most significant developments came from Japan. Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise its short-term policy rate to 1.00% at next week's policy meeting, a move that is already largely priced into financial markets. However, policymakers are also reportedly considering slowing or pausing further reductions in bond purchases to avoid destabilising the government bond market.

The prospect of tighter monetary policy in Japan could have broader implications for global markets. Higher Japanese yields may encourage domestic investors to repatriate capital from overseas assets, potentially affecting global bond markets and increasing volatility in major currency pairs such as USDJPY.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained elevated overnight, reinforcing a theme that has become increasingly important over recent sessions: the bond market is beginning to question whether current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive.

Treasury Markets Signal a Shift in Expectations
Perhaps the most important development for traders this week has been the sharp rise in Treasury yields.

Following stronger-than-expected US employment data and continued resilience in economic activity, markets have significantly reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Some investors are even beginning to discuss whether the Federal Reserve may eventually need to consider further tightening if inflation proves more persistent than expected.

The debate is no longer simply about when rate cuts will arrive. Instead, markets are increasingly focused on whether inflation, supported by strong economic growth and substantial artificial intelligence-related investment spending, could force policymakers to maintain restrictive policy for longer than previously anticipated.

This shift has provided support for the US dollar while creating a more challenging environment for bonds, gold, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the equity market.

Middle East Tensions Remain a Key Market Risk
Although reports suggest Iran and Israel have temporarily halted direct attacks, the broader geopolitical situation remains unresolved.

Negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to face significant obstacles. Tehran has repeatedly stated that Washington is not offering sufficient concessions regarding sanctions relief, while the US continues to maintain pressure through sanctions and restrictions targeting Iranian trade.

Markets were also reminded of the fragility of the situation after reports emerged that a US military helicopter was shot down in the Strait of Hormuz. While the incident did not trigger a significant market reaction, it highlights the ongoing risks facing one of the world's most important energy corridors.

As a result, traders continue to treat ceasefire headlines with caution. Previous reports of imminent agreements have repeatedly failed to produce a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, leaving energy markets vulnerable to sudden swings in sentiment.

Oil Prices Retreat but Supply Concerns Persist
Oil prices moved lower during today's session after reports that hostilities between Iran and Israel had paused. The decline reversed part of Monday's sharp rally, which had been driven by fears of further escalation in the region.

Despite today's pullback, the broader outlook for oil remains uncertain. Disruptions to shipping activity in and around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices, while concerns regarding global inventory levels remain elevated.

For traders, crude oil remains one of the most important indicators of overall market sentiment. Sharp moves in energy prices can quickly influence inflation expectations, Treasury yields, equity markets, and major currencies.

Economic Calendar: A Quiet Day Before a Major Catalyst
The economic calendar is relatively light today, with no major releases expected during the European session.

In North America, traders will monitor:

 

1. US Trade Balance
2. Canadian Trade Balance
3. US Existing Home Sales

While these releases may generate short-term volatility, they are unlikely to materially alter expectations for the Federal Reserve or other major central banks.

Instead, markets are likely to remain focused on tomorrow's US CPI report, which is widely viewed as the most important event of the week.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce the recent rise in Treasury yields and support the US dollar, while a softer reading may encourage a relief rally in equities and precious metals.

Forex, Gold and Equity Market Outlook
The US dollar continues to benefit from rising Treasury yields and fading expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. Unless inflation data begins to show clearer signs of cooling, the greenback is likely to remain supported against most major currencies.

EURUSD remains sensitive to movements in US yields, while USDJPY faces the additional challenge of growing expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike next week. This combination could lead to increased volatility in yen pairs over the coming sessions.



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Gold remains caught between competing forces. Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to provide support, but higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are limiting upside momentum. The precious metal is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to tomorrow's inflation figures.

US equity indices continue to benefit from optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and resilient corporate earnings. However, rising yields remain a headwind for technology and growth stocks, making inflation data particularly important for the outlook of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.

Trading Signals and Risk Scenarios
The dominant market theme remains the battle between inflation concerns and risk sentiment.

If tomorrow's CPI report comes in above expectations, traders could see further gains in the US dollar and Treasury yields, accompanied by weakness in gold and increased pressure on equity indices.

Conversely, a softer inflation reading could trigger a relief rally across risk assets, supporting stocks, gold, and higher-beta currencies while weighing on the dollar.

Until that data is released, markets may remain trapped within relatively narrow ranges as traders reduce risk and await clearer direction.



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Trading Plan for Today
With a relatively quiet economic calendar, traders should focus on broader market drivers rather than individual data releases.

Monitor Treasury yields for clues regarding Federal Reserve expectations and keep a close eye on oil prices for any signs of renewed geopolitical tensions. USDJPY and gold remain useful indicators of broader market sentiment and may provide early signals regarding shifts in risk appetite.

Position sizing should remain disciplined ahead of tomorrow's inflation report, as the potential for significant volatility across multiple asset classes remains elevated.

Final Thoughts
Today's session is likely to be characterised by caution rather than conviction. The temporary easing of Middle East tensions has improved risk sentiment, but unresolved geopolitical issues, rising Treasury yields, and shifting expectations for global central banks continue to create uncertainty.

Tomorrow's US CPI report will be the key event that determines whether markets continue to price a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment or begin to revive expectations for future monetary easing.

Until then, traders should remain focused on risk management, monitor cross-market signals closely, and avoid overcommitting ahead of what could be the week's most influential catalyst.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.