VSA Trading: Reading the Tape & Learning to Wait

I suck at math. I'm using a trade journal platform and it did the math for me. It was 21.7R which makes me feel (even) better about the trade lol

Stopped out of FSLR and closed out of ENPH for a small winner. Tried to double down on both in the afternoon, but price action was listless so I closed out of both for about -0.5R. Probably needed a bit of humbling after a hot hand recently tbh. I think what makes things more promising is that my risk management has tightened up, so in addition to swinging for the fence, I'm cutting losses quicker, it's early but it feels like a winning recipe.

OAN, I heard a great comment from a random YT channel I stumbled across and have shifted my focus temporarily.

99% of the time, traders focus on 3 first and then it's a toss up for the rest, but he says

1. Tackling #1 first is the low hanging fruit. And also, 2-3 are irrelevant if you don't have the discipline to follow your rules anyway
2. Tackling #2 frees up capital and time for #3
3. Tackling #3 is about leaning in on your edge harder

As a result, I've pivoted away from some recent market analysis brainstorming and pivoted towards better tracking and review. I'll keep an eye out for trades, but that'll be my focal point if the markets turn indecisive for the next few days.

Took shots @ ENPH and NEM today. Stopped myself out of NEM for a small loss.

Holding ENPH overnight in spite of the selloff going into the close. Might try to double up tomorrow if it looks bullish. Either that or get some exposure to something else in the renewables sector.

Crap, I completely forgot today's jobs report.

All the VSA goes at the window and we are in gambling territory now. We'll see how the position plays out but there's a good chance I get smoked.

Lost ~3R on the ENPH trade. Gap risk is brutal (but unavoidable) w/ the current strategy. I sidestepped FCEL and MSFT losses w/ good VSA reads but wasn't as fortunate here.

What's done is done. The convo now shifts to:

1. Was there anything in my setup (read: trade filtering) that would've kept me out?
2. If not, is there any tell that I wasn't accounting for. (Has to be worthwhile or else I risk overfitting)

Looking at the daily chart, I would take that entry 100 out of 100 times, so the issue is not there.
What about the weekly, which is also a trade filter? I will use trade replay to view how it look right before my entry:

Last week's bar showed a lack of demand and a close off the highs, but this week's bar at that point had shaken out the lows and was trending mid-bar. TBH, this makes the trade defensible. What is not defensible is that because I had traded ENPH earlier in the week, I skipped most of my trading checklist and assumed that things were mostly unchanged. I also didn't have a stop, which is unlike me. I knew when I wanted to exit, but I usually automatically add a contingency order but I didn't this time. That laziness didn't cost me this time around, since I would've entered this trade regardless, but it's something to note.

FWIW, this isn't the worst type of mistake to spot fwiw:

1. Mistake made + money made + issue recognized = Get compensated to fix the issue
2. Mistake made + money lost + issue recognized = One time payment to fix the issue
3. Mistake made + money lost + issue not recognized = You've set up automatic payments for the unresolved issue
4. Mistake made + money made + issue not recognized = You've set up automatic payments for the unresolved issue but you received an initial cashback bonus

I also didn't have a stop, which is unlike me. I knew when I wanted to exit, but I didn't pair my entry order w/ a contingency exit order like I normally do because I was in a rush. I will revamp my ThinkOrSwim default orders to account for this and reread the docs for some hotkeys to use as well.

But yeah, the volatility has blown up most of my watchlist, so I'm done trading for the week. I will put in a half-day to knock out some general upkeep before I take an edible and watch the NBA Finals in the evening. I will tackle my EoW review later in the weekend