Elliott Wave Counting with EG

What is a Hiding ? ...........What does this word mean ?

Good Morning Everyone...

Definitely looks like the BULLS came charging hard last night here in Asia.

I got hit and boy did I learn another good lesson last night...

Firstly, I made multiple Short trdaes last night near the in validating level where Wave 4 up max is and end of wave 1 meet. Placed my SL 10-20 pips above that level.

I already had that in mind that if wave 4 entered price territory of wave 1, then my count would be wrong. what I did not do was be ready of the alternative count then. But while driving back home, I remembered that , in that scenario..... alternative count would be that the old ABC will be transformed into a 3 wave A of a higher degree ABC.

So that, what I should have done was set that Sell Limit order near that level shared by the 2 waves supposedly and set my SL for the Short order 1 pip above it. or if you want to be a bit more lenient 20 pips. However I think I would go for the conservative side and go for perfection at 1 pip above it.

Then I should have set a Buy Limit order with 200-600 pip SL. You would wonder why the wide SL. It is because I believe that if the non intrusion of wave 4 into wave 1 territory is broken, then the alternative count must be correct so I might as well trade it like the normal trade I make were my SL is at 600 for this Pair.


OK... bottomline is I GOT HIT LAST NIGHT. Yes I lost because I was so convinced with the short trade. Actually over traded on that one. I lost about 600 hundred pips last night total on 8 major orders. Closed all before US session except for 1. Spread was at 20 so it was not that BAD.I only need 75 pips to double a base trade without SL. My broker has set margins for each pair and actually a bit high compared to MT4 based brokers. Anyway..... that was it and when I got home, I closed ALL as in ALL my Trades as there was only 1 short trade from last week left. Overall, yesterday was a bad day for me as I was basically losing on 90% of my trades yesterday. Good thing though was that many of them were closed manually and not allowed to eat up the wide SL of these normal trades.

Net of 25% of account lost to overtrading....

Lessons are ......
to get ready with alternative counts.
learn to use Limit Buy and Sell Orders specially atlevels were counts are possibly invalidated, then apply a tight SL for the actual count and a wide normal SL for the alternative count. ( this is probably the most important)
again not to over trade
aftedr setting those Limit Orders...... Go and have a good time.

I suppose this is probably what is happening on the other pairs like GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

EG

GBPJPY...

Above post were ramblings only.....

Checking my charts now, I think I was referencing the wrong level for my SL to invalidate my count on the GBPJPY.

Bringing my Charts up now shows that invalidating count should be at 236.27 for the C4 UP to be invalidated.

Not placing any trdaes now till I get this thing sorted out

EG

GBPJPY

4hour Chart
Looking at my ABC Structure, wave C4 up is still valid. It has not intruded above the 236.27 price Level.

Wave 5 up end @ 235.50 for the wave C up inside the Wave 4 up of this Wave C down could still be the the Solid End point.

Current high of 234.51 could be the wave 2 pull back for the 5 wave secquence down for the 5th wave inside this big wave C down.

It just gave us an opportunity to enter our Shorts again at a higher level for those of us who missed that 1st trip. How generous of the market.....

So we should be in the beginning of the wave 3 down now which is further divided into 5 waves.

Looks like the W3.1 is finished and doing a retracement for W32 so will wait for this before I enter my short trade.

on the 4hour chart ... if we maintain our counts on the end of 4th wave inside the C wave down.... the retracement Up last night was about 87% of wave 1 down for the Wave 5. Very typical of a Wave 2 retracement.

So I think that the Bears are getting ready again. They have had enough rest last night to go on with the plunge today and tomorrow.

EG

GBPJPY

Opportunity might just have presented itself now.

Will be entering my shorts at any of the following levels:

233.23
233.47
233,67
233.87
234.15

SL @ 234.60

EG

It means whacked, smacked, hit, a poesklap, asswhipped..........take your pick they all mean pretty much the same thing....

my view in future!

1h chart
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx14.gif

I have posted the chart I have of the two alternative counts as an attachment. [I am not sure how to post the image directly into this message as I do not have a URL for the image] Alternative counts are colour coded.

GBPJPY

0500 AM
Probably my last post for the day... Leaving for China at noon.. unless I can get online tonight when I get to my destination.

Anyway....here's update on my EW Count on GBPJPY

Monthly Chart - Wave 4 up or sideways actually
Inside this wave 4 sideways ( FLAT )- you will notice that it first looks like an ABC structure for a flat corrective wave and that we may have finished waves A and B here

While the C is in the works

Inside this Wave C up... we can see that we finished waves 1 2 and 3 where top of this is @ 251.07

From here downwards is the Wave 4 Down having the ABC Zigzag .
Here you will see that we have finished Waves A and B while C is developing.

Wave C down has finished Wave 4 based on my count and its top is at 235.50

Price will invalidate this EW Count once it this wave C4 up goes higher than my C1 down which is at 236.27

Otherwise it remains my count and basis for continuing to be bearish on this pair.

So far a 2nd attempt has been made to go up again. however it has only reached 234.51

The way it looks right now.... is that after finishing Wave C4 up.... we are developing C5 down wghich is divided into 5 waves.

Wave 1 looks finished with a complete 5 wave impulse subdivision.
Wave 2 seems to have finished too with the nearly 88% retrace Up towards origin of Wave 1. Note that it can still go up to the origin of wave 1 which is at 235.50 for 100% retrace allowed by EW Rules.
Higher than 235.50 will invalidate current count.

Drawing Fibs from the Wave 3 to to the Wave 2 low we get the following values

38.2% - 223.68
45.0% - 218.81
50.0% - 215.22
61.8% - 206.76
78.6% - 194.71 Note that although GBPJPY retraces often by 78.6%, in this case.... it should not. Otherwise it will enter price territory of wave 1 @ 199.72

Just a reminder to newbies..... Although projections for this retracement in the long term is so deep, we also expect a lot of volatility going down.

This is basically a Long term projection of probably several weeks to 5 months. It is best advised that newbies dow teh EW count for trading on the lower time frames of 4 hours, 1 hour and down to 15min or 5min and trade from there.

Trsding based on EW needs a deep pocket unless you are very lucky to have spotted it from the beginning and have the B_ _ _ _ made of steel to withstand the sight of this pair's volatility and yet you allow the trade to run without exiting it till we reach the bottom.

Current 1-2 day target is down to 223.68 then if trend is really strong... it could go further down to 218.81 surpassing the previous wave 3 low at 219.31

With this, I will be off. I hope the internet connection I get in my hotel will be good enough for my trading.

More Pips for all of us

EG

Hello Everyone....

Greetings from out here....

Yesterday was prbably the first acid test for me wave count on GBPJPY. Leftthe house at 8am and was monitoring the price till 1130am thru my PDA at the airport. From there I had no idea how the market performed on this pair.

Unfortunately, my PDA could not access the internet when I arrived in Shanghai at 230 PM asian time And I got to my destination at 10pm.

There I saw that the market had gone down and have gone up again and worse was that I got a message from my wife that Bernanke and Bush were going to give a speech very soon last night. I had already left for supper together with my friend then and there was no way I could take my trades off the market to find cover from this speech.

Anyway, I woke up today after the market has CLOSED and my my my....

What do I see....... Price has shot up to 235.49 ....... just 1 PIP below my C4 top of 235.50 for an almost 99% retracement for the C52 up.

Below is a cut of what I posted earlier in the market.

"Wave 1 looks finished with a complete 5 wave impulse subdivision.
Wave 2 seems to have finished too with the nearly 88% retrace Up towards origin of Wave 1. Note that it can still go up to the origin of wave 1 which is at 235.50 for 100% retrace allowed by EW Rules.
Higher than 235.50 will invalidate current count."

When I left yesterday, I was already entertaining the idea that price could still really go up to 235.50 for a 100% retracement for C2. Looking at the chart..... C2 was supposed to be an ABC structure for a zigzag where C = A possibly. But if that happens, my count for Wave C4 UP of higher degree will be invalidated. So I was thinking....... I will be taking my chances that price will hold till 235.50. If it goes higher than this..... I would have to look and assess where a potential retracement could occur so I can get out of the market and reduce my losses.

If it goes any higher than 235.50, most probably it would go up to 238.70 area for C=A. However, this will invalidate my C4 up EW Count. And it somehow does not look right.

I am still trying to convince myself that a valid 5 wave structure for the C wave up of this C52 has finished...... what with this hairline miss of which could have invalidated my wave count.

If indeed C52 up is finished then current target to finish a comple valid 5 wave structure down could be @ the area of 227.13. But this could just be the wave 1 of this C5 down and that this C51 and C52 I was earlier mentioning are probably just subwaves inside the wave 1 of the C5 down.

In addition to my wave counts, a classic inverted head and shoulders formation can be seen on the 1 hour chart.

So I would say that there is stilla big Probability that the BEARS are still on.

There where probably just taking a longer breather before they move on.

EG

Does anyone have any experience with software programs that perform Elliott Wave analysis? [RET = Refined Elliott Trader; MTPredictor; Elwave...] If yes, are they good, bad or indifferent?

Hi,

Where can i learn about Elliott Wave ? Does anyone have the resources? or ebook?

I have nothing against using EW Softwares.

But I prefer the challenge of identifying the waves myself.

Although it took my 6 year old son to convince me that I can learn Elliott Wave Principle, when I saw him read Robert Prechter's " Basics of Elliott Wave Principle " Book and kept on telling me about the motive waves and corrective waves.

In short, if a 6 year old kid can understand Robert"s book, then he must have really made it so easy to understand and learn. I recommend you read his book or check the EWI website. It is full of reference materials both free and courses for sale.

Could this be too good to be true for the BEARS?

Although all my Positions are short and I survived last Friday's volatility.....after compiling these, honestly...... it is giving me some chills

Elliott Wave
Support Trendlines
Cycle Lines
Fibonacci Retracements
Channelling Resistance
Double Tops
Inverted Head and Shoulders
Lower High

Anyone else sharing these chills????

EG

Here is an attempt to make a story out of the Candlesticks

Candlesticks should be added to the list above.

Is there still anybody out there that has a basis to be BULLISH for this Pair aside from those expecting a 61.8% retracement?

Kindly show us why.

Otherwise.... the next question would now be

WILL THE FEDS SCR_W THE BEARS???

excuse me for the language. but that was the worst way to describe the the worst possible scenario. And the way I look at it, it is just the news saying now that this pair could be bullish.

and we know a lot what the news does to traders.

EG

Here's possible good news for the Bulls.

Bears ... get ready to brace your Short Positions for this climb to 235.07

Bulls ...... take advantage of this profitable opportunity..... then get ready to ride with the Bears

EG

If this scenario works out for the Bulls and then the Bears I outlined above.....

Then , its all hats off for Nelson Elliott

But even though it works well for the Bears only... it is still hats off to him.

It is still about Probabilities. Nothing really EXACT.

The only possible exactness about the Elliott Wave Theory is that there are Probabilities.

Knowing these probabilities and enhancing them with Technical analysis, Trendlines, Support and Resistance, Chart Patterns, Candlestick Formations..... all this makes for 1 integrated Analysis which could narrow down the Probabilities.

It may not be that easy to master all of these disciplines. But people coming together in Forex factory and sharing their respective expertise by contributing an analysis like for example on GBPJPY will help each of us have a peak on potential price direction of this pair based on various disciplines or methods of Analysis.

I thank all the generous people here at FF for contributing unselfishly time , effort and expertise n analysing this GBPJPY pair.

EG

Bears bracing ourselves for this Bull ride.

EG

PS
There are risks jumping in and out. Take responsibility for your decisions. Must have a solid basis for engaging in a jump in and jump out scenario. JI/JO is strongly not recommended. JO is better specially for losing Positions. But NEVER a JI in A RUSH.