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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,521
  • Aug 31, 2007 4:49am Aug 31, 2007 4:49am
Hi all

It's quite slow but looks like it's made up it's mind about going north. But there's a resistance 116.54, do you think it'll staul there continue up or are chances that it might fail and just retraces back south? It'll be testing that resistance for the 3rd time now. The more it tests the higher the chances of success so I heard, please correct me if wrong.
In conjuction with the JPY interest I can't be so sure now
All the best things in life are free.
  • #4,522
  • Aug 31, 2007 5:07am Aug 31, 2007 5:07am
Just in case anyone was wondering the initial move up this morning stopped exactly at the monthly S1, at 116.52.

Something in these pivot numbers. Just have to learn how to maximise them.

G-Man
  • #4,523
  • Aug 31, 2007 5:29am Aug 31, 2007 5:29am
If u use all of them there will be piviots by every 10 pips on chart .
  • #4,524
  • Aug 31, 2007 5:36am Aug 31, 2007 5:36am
Hi Folks !

For the USD/JPY I'm expecting a bounce to the level
below 116.00 (about 115.90-115.80).

Greetings

Bernhard
  • #4,525
  • Aug 31, 2007 5:53am Aug 31, 2007 5:53am
Quoting behof
Hi Folks !

For the USD/JPY I'm expecting a bounce to the level
below 116.00 (about 115.90-115.80).

Greetings

Bernhard
Hey behof, I thight it might go as far as 115.73. I think I still don't really understand what constitute a strong support or resistance. Please share how u came up with that conclusion
All the best things in life are free.
  • #4,526
  • Edited 7:10am Aug 31, 2007 6:13am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting sirpawel
If u use all of them there will be piviots by every 10 pips on chart .
There may well be areas of congestion, or confluence as some might say, and these would provide key areas of support or resistance.

It is true that some days they will not be spaced far apart, but you can either ignore them on days like that or utilise other indicators to assess potential trades.

G-Man
  • #4,527
  • Aug 31, 2007 6:17am Aug 31, 2007 6:17am
R1 is going to history. R2 ?
  • #4,528
  • Aug 31, 2007 6:31am Aug 31, 2007 6:31am
Out BE.
  • #4,529
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:09am Aug 31, 2007 10:09am
There were couple of things which said south : from negative divergence on 1h chart,Slow K crossing down from 80 area on 2h chart,price closing below Central Pivot and later below 115.92 which is fib level.

Also DI- cross above DI+ almost on every timeframe.

I took my profit on Daily Pivot - unfortunately only on Demo Account (recently I switched to Demo for better understanding of Dove strategy)
  • #4,530
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:13am Aug 31, 2007 10:13am
Quoting PolishTrader
There were couple of things which said south : from negative divergence on 1h chart,Slow K crossing down from 80 area on 2h chart,price closing below Central Pivot and later below 115.92 which is fib level.

Also DI- cross above DI+ almost on every timeframe.

I took my profit on Daily Pivot - unfortunately only on Demo Account (recently I switched to Demo for better understanding of Dove strategy)
When this bearish speculation gets exhausted it still should go north. I am starting to go long on AUD/JPY; long USD/JPY since 115.52
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #4,531
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:18am Aug 31, 2007 10:18am
closed at 115.71 (below pivot point), looking for another bottom
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #4,532
  • Edited 10:41am Aug 31, 2007 10:25am | Edited 10:41am
Sorry,I meant Weekly Pivot - it seems I could have waited a little bit longer.

Also the fib level I mentioned above is 78.6% and we stopped at 115.47 because it is Bottom Bollinger Band at 2h chart.
  • #4,533
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:29am Aug 31, 2007 10:29am
Like I said: False Break Out of the Triangle. I was on the losing end at the beginning of the unwind. The price moved out of the triangle too slow and I thought "Oh..it's outside of the triangle..buy time!". Man was I wrong. I over traded it :-/
  • #4,534
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:35am Aug 31, 2007 10:35am
phew...
Now it's moving in right direction.
Long since 115.63, sold 115.8
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #4,535
  • Aug 31, 2007 10:38am Aug 31, 2007 10:38am
Will go long at 115.73 if market lets me :-)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #4,536
  • Edited 1:13pm Sep 1, 2007 12:51pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting trader07
Do you use the parabolic SAR? If so, does it work?
No I don't. It's primarily of use in trending environments, which reportedly occur only 30% of the time. So like any trend indicator, it'll result in far too many whipsaws in a ranging/volatile environment similar to what we've encountered the past few weeks. That goes for the daily chart. Load up the parabolic SAR on anything intraday and you'll see how prone it is to whipsaws.

dove said he used a trend-identifying indicator on a 10-min chart. I can tell you that the parabolic SAR is of mitigating use on a 10-min chart, as any trend on that timeframe is typically too short-lived for P-SAR's effectiveness.
  • #4,537
  • Sep 1, 2007 1:49pm Sep 1, 2007 1:49pm
hey

would you guys agree that next week we might see a break above 117.00 possibly striking 117.50. but in order for this to happen we might have to lock a 1 or 4 hour candlestick over the 50 fib at 116.55.?

the next scenario would be to have the prices drop below 115.50. then we could target 114.75. if that target doesnt hold the support at 61.8

we could see a retrace toward 114.00
PIP=$$$$
  • #4,538
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:43pm Sep 1, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting eur_usd806801
hey

would you guys agree that next week we might see a break above 117.00 possibly striking 117.50. but in order for this to happen we might have to lock a 1 or 4 hour candlestick over the 50 fib at 116.55.?

the next scenario would be to have the prices drop below 115.50. then we could target 114.75. if that target doesnt hold the support at 61.8

we could see a retrace toward 114.00
I see what you are trying to say. Hmm I have thought, do you think this pair may retrace to the critical support line near 114.00 in the 4hour charts. I noticed that it has test this area twice within the past couple of days, so I was curious to see whether it was going to test that area before breaking new highs.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,539
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:30pm Sep 1, 2007 7:30pm
The fact that the USD/JPY ended where it did with an increase in the DOW is significant! Any weakness in the DOW and look out below.

cd
  • #4,540
  • Sep 2, 2007 4:33pm Sep 2, 2007 4:33pm
I believe a doji appeared at the close on fridays candle. What do you guys think will happen next???

Personally as a daily/4hour trader, I believe it will go upwards, however because of the previous days of range trading between 11400 to 11650ish, I speculate that there may be a possible test of 11400 first before a test higher later on this week. Currently, I am in a trade that will try to see if this will work:
Short at 116.35 PT114.00 SL117.00. What are your guys opinions???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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