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  • #2,521
  • Aug 29, 2007 10:54am Aug 29, 2007 10:54am
We may see a little fight bulls against bears as Euro have managed to reach a trending down resistence at 1,367. Also, yesterday's candlestick high is 1,3681 - another little obstacle to brake throw and climb up.
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  • #2,522
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:00am Aug 29, 2007 11:00am
OK, booked profits on half of my position at 1.3672 for a gain of 60 pips as price stalled right before my initial tp (high quote = 1.3675). Notice that there has been no big bounce though, so now I'm looking for a break of the 1.3685 area to open up further upside potential. Moved stop loss for remaining position to break even which coincides with the 50% retracement from 1.3560.
  • #2,523
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:14am Aug 29, 2007 11:14am
I am waiting for it to clear a minor top at 1.3700 which could confirm a return to 1.3852 and possible break higher.

Right now, I've no plan for trading EURUSD.. It can go both ways
Forex is not easy!
  • #2,524
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:33am Aug 29, 2007 11:33am
Even if it would there, prepare for taking a roller coaster ride. The market doesn't go according to the real demand anymore, it just goes where the people believe it would go. And these days prove that how fragile people's belief would be. What are the predictions for? How accurate are they? They are just what the big guys want you to believe.

Quoting ashlee_17
shorting EUR/USD is a no no IMHO.

predictions are 1.43 - 1.45 for the eur/usd in the coming 3 - 6 months.


What do u guys think?
  • #2,525
  • Aug 29, 2007 12:04pm Aug 29, 2007 12:04pm
Quoting Hapipips
Even if it would there, prepare for taking a roller coaster ride. The market doesn't go according to the real demand anymore, it just goes where the people believe it would go. And these days prove that how fragile people's belief would be. What are the predictions for? How accurate are they? They are just what the big guys want you to believe.
Jens Nordvig, currency strategist at Goldman Sachs, says its revised forecast for the euro to be at $1.43 in three to six months time has drawn many queries, including: "How can you be bullish EUR/USD at (current level of) $1.36 when fair value is $1.21?" His response: The framework for coming up with fair values for currencies "is a very useful guide to long-run currency movements, but it does not take into account a number of short-term drivers." One such driver is possible weakness in US credit markets that could lower foreign demand for US credit products, weakening the flow dynamics for the dollar. He adds that Goldman also sees "a potential for further decoupling of growth in Euroland and the US."
  • #2,526
  • Aug 29, 2007 4:31pm Aug 29, 2007 4:31pm
Lots of pairs seem to be directly correlated to the indices right now. EURUSD at a major resistance area. A break and close above 3700 would be significant back to the upside. Some news coming out later this week as well....
  • #2,527
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:33pm Aug 29, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting Hapipips
Even if it would there, prepare for taking a roller coaster ride. The market doesn't go according to the real demand anymore, it just goes where the people believe it would go. And these days prove that how fragile people's belief would be. What are the predictions for? How accurate are they? They are just what the big guys want you to believe.
I agree, price just moves in direction of people's beliefs ....
  • #2,528
  • Aug 30, 2007 12:22am Aug 30, 2007 12:22am
Look at H1 and H4 now, looks like double top, no, actually, triple top is forming with eur/usd. Similar pattern with gbp/usd. Well, who knows what will happen next. Wait to see what will happen after UK and US news time.
  • #2,529
  • Aug 30, 2007 9:21am Aug 30, 2007 9:21am
Unfortunately I lost the second half of my position at the break even stop loss level while I was away from the screen so that puts my proft for the entire trade at 60 pips on a half-size position (equal to 30 pips on the entire position). Could have been worse.

Just watching price action for now... As I pointed out a few pages ago, and as another poster just did, many fx pairs seem to be at the mercy of the equity markets. I have been waiting for a de-coupling but it looks like it may not happen for a while still.
  • #2,530
  • Aug 30, 2007 11:03am Aug 30, 2007 11:03am
Quoting fierceman
Unfortunately I lost the second half of my position at the break even stop loss level while I was away from the screen so that puts my proft for the entire trade at 60 pips on a half-size position (equal to 30 pips on the entire position). Could have been worse.

Just watching price action for now... As I pointed out a few pages ago, and as another poster just did, many fx pairs seem to be at the mercy of the equity markets. I have been waiting for a de-coupling but it looks like it may not happen for a while still.
I think that if it doens't break the 1.3680 resistance new lows will be met tomorrow because many players will close longs.
  • #2,531
  • Aug 30, 2007 5:39pm Aug 30, 2007 5:39pm
Hey guys!

Just as I predicted at the beginning of the week, we have had a sideways trading this week, for this pair.
The problem is, that traders are fairly undecided. As you can see movements are between the support and resistence levels, and it feels like ping-pong to me right now. I am starting to get dizzy from it.
The way I see things, is that traders are lost, and I am lost with them. I think this is a weak sight of mine that I have to do something about.
As I dragged the trend lines, it looks like the USD will eventually weaken against the EUR. Though it is still too early to predict such a thing. What is your oppinion?
The greatest risk in life, is not taking one!
  • #2,532
  • Aug 30, 2007 6:27pm Aug 30, 2007 6:27pm
I see inverted head-and-shoulders formations everywhere on 1-Hour charts - EUR/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, etc...
Looks like after tomorrow news and Bernanke's speech we'll have bullish breakouts across the board, imho.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #2,533
  • Aug 31, 2007 12:47am Aug 31, 2007 12:47am
Quoting Firstboss
I see inverted head-and-shoulders formations everywhere on 1-Hour charts - EUR/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, etc...
Looks like after tomorrow news and Bernanke's speech we'll have bullish breakouts across the board, imho.
Check it out, I also think there is an ascending triangle formation also on the one hour charts.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,534
  • Aug 31, 2007 4:07am Aug 31, 2007 4:07am
If Euro brakes above 1,3680 strong resistence level than the gates will be opened to climb as high as 1,3850(July 24). But due to the fundamental news that come today it becomes quite difficult to say what is going to happen. Also, as the Fed chairman Bernanke and US president Bush speaches we may have a crazy end of the week.
  • #2,535
  • Aug 31, 2007 5:11am Aug 31, 2007 5:11am
Ok. Closed my order from 1,3650 @ 1,3662. Very small gain, but better than a loss.

Now I'm on wating side with a 2 lots pending order @ 1,3700, SL 1,3675.
  • #2,536
  • Aug 31, 2007 6:37am Aug 31, 2007 6:37am
Quoting owkenobi
Ok. Closed my order from 1,3650 @ 1,3662. Very small gain, but better than a loss.

Now I'm on wating side with a 2 lots pending order @ 1,3700, SL 1,3675.
You're in what's your target?
  • #2,537
  • Aug 31, 2007 7:39am Aug 31, 2007 7:39am
Quoting Mindaugas
You're in what's your target?
Yes. I'm in. My target is opened, for the moment. I think this time is the "right time" to reach at least 1,40. Subprime turmoil permitting.
  • #2,538
  • Aug 31, 2007 7:39am Aug 31, 2007 7:39am
I am also in @ 1.37, SL @ 1.3650, TL 50 PIPS. Target 1.3850.
  • #2,539
  • Aug 31, 2007 8:06am Aug 31, 2007 8:06am
Euro might go down to retest the 1,3680 level.. I guess so...
  • #2,540
  • Aug 31, 2007 9:24am Aug 31, 2007 9:24am
Ok. I'm stopped out @ 1,3675.

Now I'm again on wating side with a 2 lots pending order @ 1,3700, SL 1,3675.
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