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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,361
  • Aug 28, 2007 11:33pm Aug 28, 2007 11:33pm
Very interesting: it was about 22:00 ET when the early stage of the trend changed on the Euro
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,362
  • Aug 28, 2007 11:40pm Aug 28, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Anyone else got in this. The short took me out on the stop with +3
What was the signal for the short earlier and what was the entry price?
  • #4,363
  • Aug 28, 2007 11:47pm Aug 28, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting Trader KGB
What was the signal for the short earlier and what was the entry price?
Got in at the 114.18 when it hit my BB on the 3 minute.... Took me out at the 12 on my stop.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,364
  • Aug 29, 2007 12:02am Aug 29, 2007 12:02am
I hope everyone got their profit and got out...... The early stages shows an up but, it's not there yet.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,365
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:08am Aug 29, 2007 2:08am
For me, it's look like that the pair just retrace to 38.2% fibo level @ 1H TF.

Now, the pair is down, and will be looking towards 112levels...perhaps...
Hello World
  • #4,366
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:10am Aug 29, 2007 2:10am
Quoting waf_1988
For me, it's look like that the pair just retrace to 38.2% fibo level @ 1H TF.

Now, the pair is down, and will be looking towards 112levels...perhaps...
What's going on?

 

  1. 7th of August FOMC Minutes showed continued concern over inflation but a growing recognicition of subprime mortgage problems. Additionally, the Fed was cutting its growth forecasts for productivity and potential GDP growth.
  2. Stocks are falling across the board due to weak data: Both the Consumer Confidence and the Case-Shiller Housing Price Indices were weakening significantly. European stocks likely to continue the decline today.
  3. Carry Trades again getting hit with JPY strength and EM weakness.
  4. Sovereign Fixed Income strengthening and the spread trades are getting hit again. This might lead to continued weakness in the hedge fund industry. The worst is still to come.
  5. Market expect the Fed to cut rates to 5.00% at or before the 18th of September meeting.


This is my 1H TF chart...Please review and advise...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sa.gif Size: 11 KB
Hello World
  • #4,367
  • Aug 29, 2007 4:29am Aug 29, 2007 4:29am
Quoting waf_1988
What's going on?

  1. 7th of August FOMC Minutes showed continued concern over inflation but a growing recognicition of subprime mortgage problems. Additionally, the Fed was cutting its growth forecasts for productivity and potential GDP growth.
  2. Stocks are falling across the board due to weak data: Both the Consumer Confidence and the Case-Shiller Housing Price Indices were weakening significantly. European stocks likely to continue the decline today.
  3. Carry Trades again getting hit with JPY strength and EM weakness.
  4. Sovereign Fixed Income strengthening and the spread trades are getting hit again. This might lead to continued weakness in the hedge fund industry. The worst is still to come.
  5. Market expect the Fed to cut rates to 5.00% at or before the 18th of September meeting.

This is my 1H TF chart...Please review and advise...

Anything is possible; but for the moment we are at the 114 level. So, what does all that stuff above got to do with now.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,368
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:01am Aug 29, 2007 6:01am
I hope everyone is enjoying this as much as me....... Stay in the trend and you make all kinds of pips...... Work the round robin and you make a little more.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,369
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:01am Aug 29, 2007 6:01am
It came 1 pip short of the 50%
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,370
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:02am Aug 29, 2007 6:02am
Beautiful - it hitted 50% between Daily Pivot Point and R1 and retraced.

Now Dove,is it possible to use now your strategy ? I mean to wait for opposite BB hit and place long order ?

In this scenario it will be a little bit hard beacuse BB opened and they are not as narrow as they were at 19:20 ET
  • #4,371
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:06am Aug 29, 2007 6:06am
Quoting PolishTrader
Beautiful - it hitted 50% between Daily Pivot Point and R1 and retraced.

Now Dove,is it possible to use now your strategy ? I mean to wait for opposite BB hit and place long order ?

In this scenario it will be a little bit hard beacuse BB opened and they are not as narrow as they were at 19:20 ET
Nope, I don't think so because the bottom of the band is between the 50 and the 45 and I don't believe it will get there now..... On this retrace, I don't believe will be that much.....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,372
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:16am Aug 29, 2007 6:16am
Exactly,that is why I asked you

On my chart it is more like 114.70 (unless you are speaking about 5 min chart then yes,114.50) but still,I also believe that it is too many pips away.

Thanks for quick reply
  • #4,373
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:18am Aug 29, 2007 6:18am
I been riding this all night and my target is the R1...... Plus, on a separate trades, pulling 15 pips on each of the turnarounds.....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,374
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:22am Aug 29, 2007 6:22am
By the way 115.02 is also 50% between Weekly Pivot Point and S1
  • #4,375
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:27am Aug 29, 2007 6:27am
This 50% is also close to the weekly 50% of the pivot and the S1..... It wouldn't surprise me if it makes it up to the weekly pivot some time today..... Depending on how the US comes in on their trades.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,376
  • Aug 29, 2007 10:52am Aug 29, 2007 10:52am
Quoting dove_alliance
This 50% is also close to the weekly 50% of the pivot and the S1..... It wouldn't surprise me if it makes it up to the weekly pivot some time today..... Depending on how the US comes in on their trades.
Dove,

Is pivot more important or trend line ?
Pipology 101 student
  • #4,377
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:18am Aug 29, 2007 11:18am
Quoting pipology-101
Dove,

Is pivot more important or trend line ?
Trends are always the most important..... The pivots will take you out for the retrace and then back in with the trend.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,378
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:32am Aug 29, 2007 11:32am
Dove

What do you think i see head and shoulder in the 4 hour chart i think is a selling now to 111.60. What do you think.

Thanks
  • #4,379
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:46am Aug 29, 2007 11:46am
Quoting amed12
Dove

What do you think i see head and shoulder in the 4 hour chart i think is a selling now to 111.60. What do you think.

Thanks
Because of a candle formation you think this will drop down 400 pips..... Is that what you are saying?
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #4,380
  • Aug 29, 2007 11:51am Aug 29, 2007 11:51am
Quoting amed12
Dove

What do you think i see head and shoulder in the 4 hour chart i think is a selling now to 111.60. What do you think.

Thanks
the head an shoulder is on the making, right shoulder hasn't made yet. but i think its a good candidate to short ....

still waiting on confirmation, i lost quite alot due to act to quickly without confirmation. now i wait hopefully i wont lost often, creating net win instead of net loss.
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