USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY — Correction Risk at Extreme Levels (April 2, 2026)
USD/JPY is trading just below 160, a level that is not only psychological, but historically associated with intervention risk from Japan.
Technically, the pair is overstretched:
Daily/weekly RSI in overbought territory
Bearish divergences building
Price extended far above key moving averages
Major resistance at 158–160
This is late-stage trend behavior, not sustainable momentum.
Fundamentally, the upside is increasingly fragile:
The Fed stance is fully priced → limited incremental USD strength
Japanese authorities have already called FX moves “speculative” → intervention risk rising
Any shift from the BoJ (even verbal) can trigger a violent unwind of yen shorts
Recent USD strength is partly driven by geopolitics (Middle East tensions), a temporary and unstable catalyst
Positioning is crowded (long USD / short JPY), which increases the probability of a sharp, liquidity-driven correction.
Bottom line:
Upside from here is asymmetrical and limited.
Downside risk is expanding rapidly.
This is not the area to chase longs — it’s where reversals typically begin.

Dearest Sir OAPDave,
Today, CoffeeFreak taught me a lesson that helped me realize my mistake. I reflected and I have come to understand my error. I was wrong to have made inappropriate remarks and comments about you previously on this topic.
Today I sincerely apologize to you and hope for your forgiveness.

USDJPY – At resistance
Price is pushing into a key zone.
Structure is still bullish — but stretched.
Key level: 160.00
This is where reactions happen.
Not a blind sell — wait for confirmation.
Break and hold above → continuation.
Rejection → clean short opportunity.
No rush. Let the market show its hand.

Exactly my thoughts sir Bullish Bias is getting weak ...I look to go short

The USDJPY price action on the daily time frame went sideways at the 159.620 intra-day horizontal resistance after a bullish retest. Technically, we may still see further northward price action in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

usdjpy should go atleast 160.20

guys one thing that i have been talking since last year that from 2026 we may need to be habitual with many more level above 160.

Berline spike, but not a buy signal at all

As I told you guys ,USD was in sell mode and that's the EXPLOSION

This nut has to crack eventually.