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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #461
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:21pm Aug 28, 2007 5:21pm
GBPJPY


oooooopppppssss.....

if you panicked like I did on this retrace....... I have finally settled down..

This is just a small retrace ( yeah ... and yet I panicked.......) It will go back down with the trend.

Currently moving sideways......Still Bearish on this trade.

Just take care of your SLs. Widen it if you have too... I know there is a Basic Rule not to add on a losing position. If you trade with very high margin and can not widen your SL far enough to protect this trade..... Better exit for a loss now and wait for a better re-entry point

EG
  • #462
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:44pm Aug 28, 2007 5:44pm
GBPJPY

New Short Trades @

227.66
228.01
228.20

Let us see where is Pair will take us to.....

Keeping my fingers crossed...

EG
  • #463
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:28pm Aug 28, 2007 7:28pm
GBPJPY

Watch out

A Major retrace could be in the offing. 227.85

EG
  • #464
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:29pm Aug 28, 2007 7:29pm
target met on gbp (post 383), hope all enjoyed the ride. awiting next set up.
Thnks for sharing gbp/jpy tech intraday, its a volatile pair I normally stay away from but the pips can be large!
R
  • #465
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:32pm Aug 28, 2007 7:32pm
Thnx El, it seems so here as well. Gbp is in danger of a 4/1 overlap 9981/9937 so looking to get long soon, same on Aud 8095.
  • #466
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:45pm Aug 28, 2007 7:45pm
Watch out

GBPJPY

Turning the switches for a retracement UP

228.21 ** could also be here once I get my wind back
228.70 **** more common
228.94
229.10 * here if I would really like to take some more rest
229.50 ***** but could also be here if we need to prepare for the Long Haul.

EG
  • #467
  • Edited 8:43pm Aug 28, 2007 8:16pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting el grande
GBPJPY

New Short Trades @

227.66
228.01
228.20

Let us see where is Pair will take us to.....

Keeping my fingers crossed...

EG

Greed set in and I started getting complacent. Missed that profit at 227.40

Then added a new trade when it retraced but ultimately had to close all my short trades for a minimal loss.

just left that small one from last week.

Currently waiting for a retrace up hopefully till 229.5 Then I will turn the switches back to the Bears.......

EG
  • #468
  • Aug 28, 2007 10:11pm Aug 28, 2007 10:11pm
GBPJPY

Seems to have finished wave A of retracement
Currently doing a sideways B probably what looks like a triangle

Possible gets down to 228.37 before going up again towards 230.41

Already abandoned another short for a minimal loss. But waiting to unload the other when it gets down to 228.37

I did not realize this earlier when i entered my 2 short trades at intervals. It got into profit for awhile but was moving very slow so I checked my charts again.

Reminder: These are NOT to be taken as Trade Calls.

These are all amateur EW wave counts. I am still doing my best to learn this.


It looks like GBPJPY has finished a 5 wave impulse wave which could be taken as wave A in and ABC Corrective Wave.

Currently moving sideways probably for a wave B before it goes further up for Wave C towards 230.40

I am waiting for this to get down to 228.37.

However, if it goes lower than this substantially, I might as well let it ride and abandon the idea of a retracement further up the chart

EG
  • #469
  • Aug 28, 2007 10:32pm Aug 28, 2007 10:32pm
GBPJPY

OK.

I am going to stand aside right now. I just closed that last short I opened this afternoon.

Still leaving the negative short from last week.

I have made many blunders today so I better stay on the sidelines.

Will wait and watch it go for 230.41 but capable till 231.29

Maybe we get the chance during London or Us Open.

EG
  • #470
  • Aug 28, 2007 10:42pm Aug 28, 2007 10:42pm
First time I feel good walking away from my computer and not trading.

Even if I lost some pips on multiple entries of short trades earlier and having to abandon them for a loss.

The good thing about not over trading is that you can afford to close trades at a loss and not hurt your account.

Anyway..... take care everyone.

Taking my wife and son out to have a good time.

EG
  • #471
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:02am Aug 29, 2007 2:02am
Quoting africanpip
Hey EG,

You are really getting into this lately....good to see, just don't burn out bro.... . I did an all-nighter once......only once.....

Anyway I have been grappling with the cable chart the last few days. I am not sure if we are still in a corrective wave or not. I have not closed my long from 9840 yet, it is looking close to that time though. I am not sure about the wave 5 down thing anymore.

I am going to wait and see where this down move ends, currently about 23.6% retrace from yesterday's high. London should give us some direction. if it breaks below 2.020 then shorts are in order.

If this is the start of a bigger wave C down then there are plently pips to get and an entry short below 2 will still be early enough. If this is a wave 2 of a bull wave up then there are also plenty of pips to get on wave 3 up if I close my long now and go in at 2.150 again.

Bottom line is I am not certain at the moment. I am sure we will have a clearer picture in a few hours.

You enquired earlier about diving or surfing. You a bubble blower EG? Good diving spots around my place, world renowned. good surfing as well. I am a surf ski paddler myself, I do a lot of open ocean paddling.

Regards.
Hi AP.

I am out right now but could not help but take a peek at the market.

I checked 4h GBPUSD Chart and noticed that we could have just finished Wave 4 up. Notice the none intrusion of wave 4 up into the price trerritory of wave1 down around 2.0218 level. This would make it appear that the ABC DOWN would be a 5 wave impulse wave which makes it a bigger Wave A now.

Just my thoughts here.... looking at it from afar..

If I was trading this, I would be holding my Shorts and not letting them down.... belt it ans strap it like a chastity belt without letting go.... till I finish the wave 5 down.

EG
  • #472
  • Edited 2:21am Aug 29, 2007 2:18am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting el grande
Hi AP.

I am out right now but could not help but take a peek at the market.

I checked 4h GBPUSD Chart and noticed that we could have just finished Wave 4 up. Notice the none intrusion of wave 4 up into the price trerritory of wave1 down around 2.0218 level. This would make it appear that the ABC DOWN would be a 5 wave impulse wave which makes it a bigger Wave A now.

Just my thoughts here.... looking at it from afar..

If I was trading this, I would be holding my Shorts and not letting them down.... belt it ans strap it like a chastity belt without letting go.... till I finish the wave 5 down.

EG

yeeha! easy from the sidelines eh?.........

Closed my long at 2.0020, put a short in at 2 as planned now sweating a bit.....I was whistling a merry tune just a few minutes after London open now I am gulping for air a bit but as you say, our plan we put together a few weeks ago about this structure seems to be working out just the odd hic-cup now and again. bumpy ride but, if we view wave 4 as throw over of the channel there should be throw under of wave 5.

0065 right now, but struggling to go further.......

Regards.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #473
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:30am Aug 29, 2007 2:30am
Quoting rsonic
Thnx El, it seems so here as well. Gbp is in danger of a 4/1 overlap 9981/9937 so looking to get long soon, same on Aud 8095.
Hi rsonic.

Like I mentioned to AP... check out the original ABC zigzag formation on the 4hr chart.

You may be able to see an ABC Wave formation transformed into a 5 wave impulse wave down with the former ABC4 turned into a 1234 wave count and show that there is no overlap between Wave 4 and wave 1 and 2.

This would mean that we are in for a bigger wave ABC formation down with this new 12345 waves down as the bigger wave A down. AP's potential 5th wave truncated could be the end of the wave A down.

From there we will see the beginning of the Bigger Wave B UP.

Just my thoughts here....

EG
  • #474
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:37am Aug 29, 2007 2:37am
Not so sure about this anymore EG.....
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #475
  • Aug 29, 2007 3:05am Aug 29, 2007 3:05am
GBPJPY

Looking to enter @ 231.30 with a very tight SL like 75pips from a normal 600 pips.

EG
  • #476
  • Aug 29, 2007 3:15am Aug 29, 2007 3:15am
Quoting el grande
Watch out

GBPJPY

Turning the switches for a retracement UP

228.21 ** could also be here once I get my wind back
228.70 **** more common
228.94
229.10 * here if I would really like to take some more rest
229.50 ***** but could also be here if we need to prepare for the Long Haul.

EG
Above were my initial targets for retracements.

However, as any experienced EW trader would probably agree with this amateur.... wave shave a way of developing into other variations durting its development. This is probably the reason why this can not be traded with an EA profitably for a long time. It needs human intervention.

Anyway, before I left my charts at home, I placed limit orders at 230.50 and 231.50

Before the first one got hit here... I was able to remove both as I realized it was better to set it myself or trade it manually.

230.50 was probably early based on wave development while 231.50 would result in an overlap with wave 1.

So setting it at 231.30 area.

If it gets hit and goes higher than 231.40, then I am closing it for a small loss again.

EG
  • #477
  • Aug 29, 2007 3:25am Aug 29, 2007 3:25am
http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx10.gifhttp://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx10.gif%5Bhttp://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/fx10.gid/
  • #478
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:20am Aug 29, 2007 6:20am
GBPJPY

This pair has broken an important EW Rule where Wave 4 must not enter the price territory of wave 1 and 2.

Wave 4 UP of wave C Down has encroached into into Wave 1 down of wave C Down by surpassing 231.35 going up to 231.66

This invalidates my previous count to come up with an ABC down.

Now I think this is just a 3 wave big Wave A down which we have already finished at 227.38 Low

And where we are right now is Wave C UP of a Bigger Wave B Up.

Definitely finished Wave A and Wave B of this Bigger Wave B UP.

Wave C of this Bigger Wave B up is developing...... Probably finished with Wave 3 inside Wave C up of Bigger Wave B UP.

Probably GBPUSD and AUDUSD are in the same boat now.

Check your charts for overlapping of Wave 4 up into the wave 1 down Price Territory.

EG
  • #479
  • Aug 29, 2007 9:01am Aug 29, 2007 9:01am
Hey EG,

I got a hiding today....good and solid....I traded my plan but because of volitilty extended my SL but that got hit at 170. Watch it turn now.....going to have to approach one of the three wise men for advice......
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #480
  • Edited 1:15pm Aug 29, 2007 1:11pm | Edited 1:15pm
africanpip
I got a hiding today....good and solid....I traded my plan but because of volitilty extended my SL but that got hit at 170. Watch it turn now.....going to have to approach one of the three wise men for advice......

I know the feeling. I was short yesterday and made a few pips and then I went short today at 20100 - SL at 20150 [wider than usual] hit. It seemed like a good idea at the time but now I can hardly believe the evidence I used to justify the trade! Hindsight is a tough taskmaster

I guess the good news is that this pattern should resolve soon. I am still maintaining two counts - they both seem reasonable and fit the evidence. The only trouble is they point in opposite directions! [I must confess I am now leaning towards the more bullish interpretation; getting less convinced that there will be a large Wave C downwards. As always, time will tell.]
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