Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Parisboy Miss You….!!

As detailed numerous pages back - the Beast cycle doesn't disappoint - right on cue!

The main things to watch this year and I've already detailed these in previous posts on this thread are:

 

1. The 180TD cycle low to low - Due in the Summer [Charts previously posted to this thread so you can refer back to those]
2. The 4 year low cycle - Due Summer through to OCT'26 [Charts previously posted to this thread so you can refer back to those]

The 4 year low cycle has repeated perfectly with 100% accuracy since 1792 - that's 234 YEARS - it has a tendency/preference to arrive in the month of OCTOBER, but that's not guaranteed

Not shown [but previously posted to this thread] is a host of other Independent composite cycles zoning in on Oct time

and I don't think I've mentioned this on this site, but for years now, the SP500 has been "loosely" moving in line with the generic big swings of the 60 year cycle - Wasn't this Gann called his Master cycle?

Anyway, here's the chart - 60 years AGO in 1966 there was a TOP, oh look what happened in 2026! Doesn't have to be exact, just there or there abouts as we are dealing with set fixed static cycle

So, "IF" we truly are repeating the 60 year cycle, it suggests downwards into late 2026 then UP - and we all know that OCT as a month is in LATE part of the year - so we have another coincidence for our OCT'26 LOW expectation

"IF" we are repeating 1966, then we should follow the following to some degree - NOT exactly, it doesn't work like that. just to some sort of similar formation

and oh look where the old low points are in this 1966 market movement - the SUMMER which matches with the 180TD cycle expectation and OCT!



Educational purposes only - trade/Invest based on your own knowledge, analysis and expectations

PS - Almost forgot about this - in 1966 ENGLAND won the world cup - Come on you lions

thanks THtPro
this is where I struggle.

The 18.6 year real estate cycle suggests land prices peaked in the US late last year. Generally, stocks top out about a year after that suggesting late 2026 or early 2027.
The decennial cycle suggests later in 2027 as a likely peak

The four year cycle using Hilbert transform shows a very strong cycle at 864.6 trading days. This continually appears. Further research also suggests that the 4 year stock cycle is no longer a 4 year cycle but has shortened suggesting this may in fact now be the 4year cycle.
This Hilbert cycle is at 257.8 phase so is still rising strongly and not due to peak until early 2027.

I wonder if this is a pullback leg before a final run higher into the peak of the "4 Year" cycle and 18.6y real estate cycle ue early next year

Looking at long term Murrey, 8/8 daily, 8/8 weekly, 8/8 monthly.

We're due a bounce now, but Murrey does not support much more to the upside.

Yes, there's multiple things happening all at once - one of them will override the others and become the dominant cycle, then the others should just "tag" along

Re the 18.6 yr property cycle, that could be it, it only needs to peak and turn down to some extent - I rarely consider or look at that cycle in all honesty

My 4yr cycle HAS to be a LOW - It's not permissible for this cycle to be anything other than a low

There is a circa 180TD cycle low due in the Summer'26 and that could be the 4 year cycle low too - but there is a huge amount of other independent cycle analysis which shows summer as a temp low then OCT'26 as the low - we'll have to wait and see

this was just published on Time & Price blog the other week

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

My own cycle predictor - as you can see, there's a low Autumn'26 time, UP into 2027 then down in 2028, which agrees with the Hillbert cycle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I'm expecting low in summer/autumn 2026, then whatever the drop to be fully recovered (or close to) up into 2027, then down into the 2028 low - right NOW, I'm expecting some sort of "relief" rally up into late April/early May'26 then collapse down

I class sideways corrective movements as down too - when that happens it shows strength in the underlying bigger cycle and usually always results in higher breakouts once the down cycle ends

I also fully believe that markets are UP until 2034, so every correction should be 100% fully recovered up until that time

***Obviously just my views and analysis - Trade at own risks

This is where we differ @Thtpro, as you know I follow the 18.6 year real estate cycle and believe that is the main economical cycle.
When that rolls over it will take everything with it. Land prices in the US peaked late last year, many other countries peaked earlier than that.
The stock market will absorb capital from people moving funds out of real estate and this will sustain stocks for a bit longer, but if Im correct we will see a signficant stock market crash, similar to the GFC, likely in 2027.
Rather than debt securities, the catalyst this time will be non bank lenders. They will take the economy down

Well time will tell if either of us are correct - agree a low is due 2027/2028

In my analysis you don't have a GFC style event in this type of cycle, a 1987 plunge yes, is fine but not a GFC - depends how one defines things as 2007-09 - for me in an overall UP cycle you don't get that type of crash, but in the overall DOWN cycles you get 2-3 of them

Doesn't really matter - my expectation is up into 2027, then down into a 2028 bottom, then up into 2030, then down, then up into 2032, then down into a Gann emblem completion 2032 bottom (1987, 2002 and 2009 lows were the other parts to it, it needs to complete in 2032), then up into 2034, then the start of the next overall down cycle which will contain at least 2 GFC style bear markets

My long term views haven't budged since 2013 - But I could be wrong, so far so good - my analysis is purely for the USA stock markets and are virtually all planetary, which when backed up and confirmed by static cycles, adds to everything

Here's the visual of my thinking:

Shows the UP/Down sequence - its too complicated to explain 1929 so I marked it as an Inversion, but it wasn't an inversion, it worked - 1929 Repeated in 2000 a chart of the Nasdaq proves the repeat and shows the big bear market 2-3 times during the down cycle phase, all corrections in the UP cycle phases are always quickly recovered


The chart below shows those up down cycles closer up with a few more additions to them

BLUE is the UP/Down cycle
RED Starts or ends the UP/Down cycle - ONLY if it arrives AFTER the BLUE cycle date - in August 2015 it arrived BEFORE the BLUE cycle date of Dec 2016 and people can check for themselves what the markets did to the day for that RED cycle date
BLACK allows you to time the mid cycle bear market in the down cycle phases
All of these are planetary



A very smart guy from the SSI built static cycle predictors - screenshots below which are +/- 6 months accurate, accuracy isn't the object of those cycles, its their correlation with stock market turns that is, because if there's a high correlation, it means the future cycles should be good too

From 1900 on the Dow





The projection forward which I'm not posting tops out in 2034 which backs up my planetary 2034 top thinking

So far from 1900-2026 = 126 years, those cycles have been pretty spot on

Re the 18.6 year cycle - This author used Louise McWhirters work to create his forecast in the PDF below freely available on the net, which I agree with, the issue with this method is its for me not specific enough - Its also Gann's basis for his Financial Timetable



I'm NOT dismissing the 18.6yr cycle because it does have its uses in timing and price as noted in the article above and McWhirters original work from the 1930's

We can clearly see the North Node 18.6 yr cycle when converted into planetary lines on a chart has some relevance


This is the North Node and a Planet combination below


But anyway, my thinking comes from those big UP and big DOWN cycles - None of this is my work, its all out there in traderland, I just took what i thought was relevant from a huge amount of books and courses I read and studied - Time will tell obviously

Now the article shared to you, provokes some further questioning and information, because the author was being a bit cryptic in places

Firstly - remember GANN created his Financial Timetable in 1909 - Louise Mcwhirter published her works in the 1940's - but Gann's FTT is essentially what is contained in the article and McWhirters book with the North Node cycle - anyway, there is a link between it and market/business activity, but its generic not specific

Secondly - The WAR cycle referred to - This is from a trading book I have on my bookshelf which was published in 1993

Should be self-explanatory - Also a bit of Gann in there too with the square in the circle - anyone with that book from 1993 was able to predict the current war



Thirdly - The article refers to a 45 year cycle - Cards on the table, this is the planetary cycle between Saturn and Uranus - also detailed in that book i have on my bookshelf from 1993!

Anyway, There's more to this cycle than I am showing below, if you care to explore it - the vast majority won't bother, so I'll not waste too much time on it

So that article the 360 degree Saturn/Uranus cycle of 45 years - Gann in his works taught splitting up the circle into harmonics, 2 would be 180 degrees, 3 would be 120 degrees etc returning back to conjunction at 360 degrees at the end of the cycle etc - this then gives you a square and a triangle inside a circle - just as Gann used on his square of nine, spiral charts etc

Here we can see what happened when we did just that!

ANY trader who knew of this prior to 2000, would of been able to predict and forecast to the WEEK (near exact to the DAY) the major stock market lows of our time - you'd of had to of known about the UP/DOWN sequence too which were the blue and red lines i showed

Anyway - you now have the EXACT DATE & the WEEK that this cycle completes 360 degrees from the 1987 low - I can tell you now that that week or the week either side of it WILL BE A MAJOR SWING LOW on the SP500 from which it will have a pretty decent rally upwards from - the market leaders who are aligned to this cycle will move much much more than the general index

hmmm!

Yeah the Foundation of cycles, cycle analyser - its pretty good

Lars wrote a book in 2018 ish too

All this stuff is out there for traders to find - The foundation only work off static cycles, so when they come into play, they'll work great, as they have done for years, but when a planetary cycle dominates, it'll get out of sync and the static cycles miss etc - but overall once you have the static cycles set at the right length, they'll work pretty damn well forever

Bravo

Excellent thread packed with v useable, easy to understand and importantly easy to implement techniques

CORN + most other SOFT commodities

Simple 4 year H-H AND L-L cycle

Sequence is Pink then Blue, then pink etc etc - these can and do Invert, but the sequence remains


84 year cycle = Uranus

RED lines = 120 degrees / TRINE angle

BLUE lines = 30 Degree angle

Notice BOTH have an UP/DOWN sequence

Next sequence date is in 2027 and it should be a HIGH/TOP




Watch for "events" that create a shortage of grains, such as droughts/floods/disease etc that impact the availability

If you get to 2027 and no decent spike high is printed and it's a low like 2005/2020 etc then its Inverted and it should rocket upwards following 2027 - just use a bit of logic and common sense around the dates, wait for price movement rather than blindly trading

Like right NOW - you'd be looking for a rising trend of some description or the start of one etc

Notice the 120 degree TRINE dominates this market - its another key angle in Gann's CIRCLE, making the triangle points, then you have other cycles within - this is Ezekiel's [bible] and Gann's "Wheels within Wheels" statements

1D BTC

PA gravitation down from Asc 1X1 to Asc 2X1
Nice approx 50% retracement of the whole move up since local 2022 Low
Anticipating a potential improvised Low mid Q4 2026

1D CFG

CB chart Natal High 7/8 gravitation to Local Low at 1/8
Nice approx 50% retracement of the whole move down since 6th Feb 2026 local Low, breaking Dsc 1X1 and VTL in the process
Good job by energy burst (coloured turquoise, located within oscillator pane), along with other various alignments hinting a nice time, prior to the local move up
Since PA penetrated thru FLD128, I'll anticipate Support for now and an improvised doubling of the distance in space and trajectory covered so far towards FLD256, which has yet to print on this chart, hence invisible

30M BTC

High 6/8 gravitation to 2/8 1/8 following Dsc 1X1 down
As anticipated Dsc 1X1 and VTL break generated a bullish action signal and was smart to remain patient to let Price come back to area of potential confluence
Good job by Edge-band + Dsc 1X1 retest + 50% retracement area of the local dip + X2 Aspects at approx Time vicinity of yesterdays low resulting in a quick move up

Nice work, 7iv3. Perhaps give some more detailed explanations of your work

Two nice USDCAD shorts this week. Both gave good returns.
Murrey Math working well.

I appreciate the various jargon being used (above) may not immediately be transferable, so shall attempt to elaborate in communications.

The "your work" ala techniques being utilised are majority past observations by PB, on this thread, his Sentient Trader posts and useful info provided in Jenkins YT vids, along with the many freely available pdfs from similar authors

Just a mishmash of stuff really, so can appreciate if somewhat perplexing

well keep posting and explaining, we'll catch on eventually.

NZDUSD short setting up

I see you from the Uk the same as me
So were you been, all my life
It would be fun, at least for me
If we were from the same town
haha
Dave