EURUSD only

Danke... gleichfalls

Overall, I disagree.
War-/oil-driven inflation is not demand-driven. It’s a supply shock that simultaneously pushes prices higher while weakening the labor market. Treating it like demand-driven inflation risks tightening into an already deteriorating economic environment.
There will be no rate cuts — but that was already the consensus even before the war.

The US dollar index has shown a decline for two days, indicating a weakening of the USD. The market is currently awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to hold rates unchanged due to inflation concerns stemming from high energy prices stemming from the Iran war. Technically, high interest rates support the USD.

Kind of want to short this area but there's still plenty of room on the upside. I think I'm sitting this one out today. Let the dust settle tomorrow from the red flag news and have a fresh look.

This period of wars have set in motion alot of trade affecting parameters. So if you rely on red folder news and headlines only, you'll keep going in the wrong direction. I see alot of people trying their best to sell which is not so out of place but we're in a season where the market chooses what parameters to react to and because of that I'll suggest we stop trying to predict the market and focus on trading what we see.

PS: We are no longer trading headlines, We are trading consequences.

I have most time frames with a valid bearish bias and that is my long-term bias. However, I am seeing opportunity for short-term sells to mid-term buys - sell to buy to sell. It's the day of the Federal Funds Rate and the day before the Unemployment claims and EU Main Refinancing Rate news. I suggest not getting bogged down on what the numbers should do for price, particularly in this volatile and unpredictable Trump era. News will be the liquidity hunt to move the market and the technical analysis will indicate the probable direction. Fundamentals are not important at these low time frames.
Price is doing its usual thing of not completing ranges and validating POI's and moving without significant liquidity mitigation. Patience for A+ setups is very hard to do in conditions like these - but essential. Be strong. Be professional.

4H
The bearish range has closed and price is printing structure again. Price is holding but has not mitigated the required POI's to validate a sell opportunity. I am looking for price to continue to the first in the queue at 1.15764, then the 2nd at 1.16140 expecting the high to hold at 1.16673. If this fails, I expect the Iran war opening gap (1.17959) to be the next target then sell opportunities will be realised.

5m
Asia has mitigated a bearish POI (1.15473) inside a valid bearish range aligned with the 15m. Be aware that above and inside the bearish range are the last remaining 1H, 15m and 5m POI's that could be mitigated before any bearish move. There is tons of liquidity to the downside in the form of incomplete structure. I am considering a sell position early today as we may see price push higher at news today or tomorrow. I use the 1H bullish POI's (1.15264, 1.14798, 1.14477) as targets and areas to watch for buy opportunities.
I will reiterate my opening remarks - these are difficult conditions to navigate. If you don't see a clear entry sit and wait. The market will be here tomorrow.

A possible upside target is the 1.1570–1.1580 zone (yellow box on the H1 chart), where several strong resistance levels are located. That’s where I would definitely look to add to my short positions again. Given the overall backdrop, I don’t think there’s much upside potential left, although one can never completely rule out that price could still move higher. Still, in my view, the downside potential clearly outweighs the upside from here.

Daily flip lvl 1.1536 below above

H1: a candle close below 1.1525 can trigger bear trap... I am looking for a good low to enter long again...

Not inside this hour though... Sidelines until next hour..

what do u think abt 1D fvg filled

On D1, I have 1.1514 as main support now...

As long as H1 and H4 candles open above 1.1514, I stay bullish because D1 is not showing signs of bearishness yet!

But I am aware, that bulls need to break the doors of 1.1560/70 for continuation... So, I am with bulls until clear failure!

I hope it answers

M15: I am delaying buying because setup is not ripe enough yet..

Target hit

50/50 ... ech. Schwere Tag heute.

Mate, as respectfully as I can put this you are creating more noise than he is. Ignore him.

time to long?
need 1H candle to close above 1.1539

I Think Longs on EURUSD are the best Option at this point for the Following Reasons :-

1- Market had more than 1 break of structure on the 1hr time frame
2- news most properly be not in favor of USD given the war and oil prices
3- the overall momentum is bullish and there is a trendline formed that was respected 3 times and

Summary :-

i think there is still room for a potential buy set-up but need the news confirmation first

what do you guys think ?

The upward movement after the rebound from 1.1440 is heading towards the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1577.
Rebound from this level, drop back to 1.1440?
Consolidation above 1.1577, rise to 1.1696?
Too many unknowns ... and that's still half the day ahead of us.

I guess I'll wait for the Target hit, that's always an absolute crystal pure certainty.

I sell for 1.14874 let's see