Elliott Wave Counting with EG

No wonder... just noticed it now....

235.32 is a 2nd Resistance Level.

GBPJPY

m30 chart shows a 5 wave structure which shows a current reversal or a correction.

I would choose reversal at the moment as a higher degree 5 waves has just been completed.

Breakout to the down side of the diagonal triangle seen on the 15 m chart

Hourly pound I see this as completing .v of 3 and corrective now in 2 towards .iii 2.0091, .iv .9981.

GBPJPY

If this is the begining of the Wave 5 down in this wave C down, Then I would expect sub wave 1 of this Wave 5 down must exceed or terminate lower than 230.83 before it starts a retracement up for the sub wave 2.

still have to get thru my notes if it is possible for sub wave 1 to terminate before reaching 230.83 for the sub wave 2 retracement.

GBPJPY

Sub wave 1 down has gone lower than previous Wave 5 up Sub wave 5 up origin at 234.32

GBPJPY

235.50 high could be termination point of wave 4 up

235.50 could be the swing high point for the reversal and the beginning of Wave 5 down.

Sub wave 1 down of the wave 5 down has just finished sub sub wave 3 down and the sub sub wave 4 retracement of 50% up is developing sideways.

Potentially on a sideays movement now before it continues its move for sub sub wave 5 down to ultimately complete the sub wave 1 down of wave 5 down.

How can you be in 2 if you are completing v of 3?

It does not make sense to me. Sorry.

@ 2.-178 now using the m15 chart, i think this is in a small wave 2 fo rthe final sub wave 5 of the last wave 5 in the wave c of this wave 4 up.

GBPJPY

Word of Caution fro those trading GBPJPY today

if we see price going lower than 234.22, this could be a confirmation that we are back to the bear trend.

However, please be warned that that is also the end of the sub wave 1 of the wave 5 down.

This means that we are expecting a retracement Up for the sub wave 2 towards 235.

Do o not get caught shorting this baby once we reach lower than 234.22 now.

I would suggest that you short it when it retraces 61.8% up towards 235 level.

EG

2 meaning 2 corr w's down not a literal w2

Price Action - Update......

GBPJPY

placing a Long trdae toward 235 for the sub wave 2 retracement.

I just got out of a short position with Zero gain which was stuck at negative pips since Friday last week.

still have 3 negative trades 2 from last friday and 1 from a long time ago.

closed last Saturday early morning in Asia a substantial high margin short trade I placed after the 10 am US news.suffered a heavy loss there.

was planning to close all my short positions Asia Sunday . but fortunately, my broker was doing maintenance work on the servers so I was not able to close the trades which I could normally close during weekends.

This gave me more time to dissect my wave counts for GBPJPY.

EG

GBPJPY

Plan now is

1. Let this current new Long trade run till 235 area which is 61.8% wave 2 retracement.

2. Exit at the area and place my new Short trade which hopefully rides down towards 219.

EG

Hey Clusterwise..

I hope you do not mind me re-posting your chart here ..

This was how Clusterwise saw GBPJPY Movement when it was still starting the wave 4 up retracement.

EG

PS. Thank you Clusterwise for sharing your thoughts on GBPJPY

GBPJPY

Assuming I support Clusterwise's view that GBPJPY is going down to 201 area...

I know many are thinking that this could be absurd...

But let us take a moment to see possible reasons why I would back this up:

1. Looking at the monthly chart, I am seeing a sideways movementwhich I am currently assuming to be a Wave 4.

It is highly pssible that this sideways movement is a corrective wave in this wave degreeon the monthly chart.

wave 2 is normally a zigzag and a sharp movement while wave 4 is generally but not always a sideways moving complex wave.

2. So this is how I arrived at the assumption that we are in a wave 4 corrective wave.

However, I think this wave 4 corrective wave has already finished and therefore is giving way to this potential long freefall of GBPJPY.

what you see as the ABC Zigzag wave going down could actually be a 5 wave impulse wave going down where we are currently seeing the subwave 5 of a wave 3 of a higher 5 wave impulse wave down is developing.

Unlike GBPUSD which potentially will develop a truncated 5th wave for the wave C down, GBPJPY is looking like it will experience a fast freefall towards 201 level.

EG

PS. part of a series of rumblings generated by this mind. you can say I am trying to rationalize these forecasts.

well then.... we are all entitled to our own opinion and EW Counts are tools we use to have a sneak peak at potentials of the future.

it is only time that will tell if I was right to assume the factors above.

in the mean time, let us trade the short term to meduim term EW Counts.

GBPJPY

I am still holding my short term Long trade.

missing that positive pip opportunity at end of sub sub wave a for this sub wave 2 up retracment.

retracement has just been in the area of 23.6%. Not even reaching the 38%. So Iam staying on with my Long Trade.

EG

GBPJPY

Could be a flat or expanded flat wave now that it has gone lower than the previous low of 233.88 at 233.86 . Check the 15m chart.

this potentially changes scenario and probably find wave 2 retracing towards 38.2% only of the sub wave 1. Price level in the vicinity of 234.49

EG

GBPUSD

Probably found its Peak @ 2.0178

Could now be in its way down on 1hr chart.

Is it psossible that EW Rules will tolerate slight overlap into Price Territory of Wave 1?

Somewhere I just can not remember.... but they say we can allow a 20% incursion into wave 2 territory and still make the wave count valid.


EG

Hi Marketwavez.

I just saw your charts now. Based on them, we have finished a much bigger Wave B than what I was thinking on my Count. That is probably I had that invalidating Wave 4 overlap into wave 1.

Thank you for sharing your charts with us here.

EG

GBPJPY

Retracement to 38.2% on 15m chart only showed a 3 wave subdivision instead of 5 so 61.8 to 78.6% retracement may afterall be possible.

Closed my initial Long at the 38.2% retracement and re -entered a new long trade near the end of that sub sub wave 4 retracement.

Hoping to achieve my Long end at 235 or slightly higher price level before the Move downward.

EG

GBPJPY

If the count must consider that wave 4 does not get into price territory of wave 1, then that incursion into the price territory of wave 1 is probably just the sub wave 2 after the sub wave 1 of a wave 3 up in this C wave.

which could propell the retracement higher than just a 61.8% retrace.

potential maximum wave 2 retrace is almost testing the previous hih with nearly 100% retracement towards 235.50

EG

Update : Sitting tight and watching my 15m chart unfold

Still looking forward to my long trade turn for the good in a very short term. nearly paid the spread already....