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Simple Daily System

  • #541
  • Aug 22, 2007 1:51pm Aug 22, 2007 1:51pm
The Thing,

In summary, for you, which are the more interesting pairs to trade?

thank you
  • #542
  • Aug 22, 2007 8:50pm Aug 22, 2007 8:50pm
Apparently, everyone has concluded that SIMPLE is no longer "fast" enough for them. However, with due diligence, the setups presented by SIMPLE do produce many, many more profitable trades than do other "faster" systems.

Well, OK. I will continue with SIMPLE. And hopefully use it to great long-term advantage. I had hoped that you talented currency guys would help confirm the principles of SIMPLE (with backtests, forwardtests, etc.) I had also hoped that we could then use our collective results and observations about the tested pairs to enter good trades as they developed with SIMPLE's backtested and revised SL's, TP's, "indicators," etc. (by pair)

Sadly, FOR WAY TO MANY OF US, SIMPLE's finest attribute is its worst curse! The trades take time to develop . . . 3 candle days! Apparently, this is more time than folks can tolerate. Too bad.

Still, I wish you all well with your "faster" trades and systems. I think, in fact I know, that I will keep plugging away with SIMPLE.

Best regards, K
  • #543
  • Aug 22, 2007 9:01pm Aug 22, 2007 9:01pm
Concur, I will stay with the "Simple system".
  • #544
  • Edited 11:21pm Aug 22, 2007 11:10pm | Edited 11:21pm
I too will be keeping it simple, i have all the time I need to wait for the setup.
So far of the pairs I have listed none yet fllfill the three bar rule yet.
there are trades that certainly could have been taken and been profitable but they did not conform to the rules.
sooooo you are correct in saying this simple system is for the hunter.....and not for those that suffer from buck fever.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #545
  • Edited 8:19am Aug 23, 2007 7:37am | Edited 8:19am
Hi all,

Firstly all thanks to The Thing for sharing this system and for everybody who is trying to make the systems work.

I have studied this system in depth, ran back tests out of MT4's history center for the last seven years and a 14MB file is the result. All test were done manually. Please bear with me as I tell you what I have done.

The only thing that I have added was to open the trade with 3 lots, first lot close on TP 30, the second lot close on TP 60 and the last to close on TP 100. I needed to optimize the trades. SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY was 100 and for GBPCHF and GBPJPY IS 150, only forward testing will optimize this.

GBPJPY (30,100) 105 P/M (30,60,100) 173 P/M
GBPUSD (30,100) 70 P/M (30,60,100) 124 P/M

The data from MT4 reports Date,Time,Open,high,Low,Close,Volume. Time and volume gets deleted as it is of no use. I then subtract Open and high,Open and Low, Open and close to get a "average pip movement" / currency pair. What I have realized is that if the average pip movement is below 60 the pair will not perform well, in the testing it was true that below 50 it always ended up in a loss at the end of the time period, Please comment on this as it makes sense to me, some pairs were as low as 24, so here are the pairs that I have found that does work, GBPUSD (66), EURJPY (62), GBPCHF (94), GBPJPY (91).

As this forum progressed there were a few ideas that I also incorparated in my tests, one was that if there is a trend developing let it run, I then applied the same rules for "simple" at every open of the new candle. This test came back with exellent results +-700 pips/month for the 4 pairs, untill I broke down the data into end of year figures. The excel graph showed that in the first few years from 2000 that there was a downwards trend up to now as if the trends became less.

YEAR EURJPY GBPCHF GBPUSD GBPJPY TOTAL AVE/MONTH

1999 1152 1510 296 3070 6028 502
2000 5226 7191 3140 5934 21491 1790
2001 2265 5944 -90 2340 10459 871
2002 520 4783 654 3771 9728 810
2003 3005 4553 2818 6651 17027 1418
2004 1148 873 1528 1441 4990 415
2005 -1107 -1430 2038 1287 788 65
2006 -1327 1323 1880 -1911 -35 -2
2007 1213 219 -313 2867 3986 332

I have also tested the GBPUSD with and without sunday candles and it only made a difference in 1999 and 2007.

YEAR SUNDAY NO SUNDAY

1999 296 -342
2000 3140 3140
2001 -90 -90
2002 654 654
2003 2818 2818
2004 1528 1528
2005 2038 2038
2006 1880 1961
2007 -313 510

The other idea that came to mind was to TP of the 3 lots at 30 to give 90, only tested this on GBPUSD and GBPJPY,

GBPUSD 104 P/M
GBPJPY 108 P/M

I hope this info helps
  • #546
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:14am Aug 23, 2007 10:14am
Excelent.....Thank you for your info and hard work
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #547
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:03pm Aug 23, 2007 2:03pm
Hi All

I've been lurking for a few weeks before posting. Read through the whole thread a couple of times. Thank you TheThing, for introducing us to this Simple system and to everyone who has posted. An enthralling and stimulating wealth of info.

I was inspired to open a dummy account at North Finance and I've been monitoring/paper trading different pairs. Just to get a feel of things. Been doing a limited bit of back testing too using the original Simple rules (plus EMAs). I've also been trying to find a way to determine optimum SP and PO for each pair at different times. Nothing worthwhile reporting yet.

In fact I wasn't going to post until I felt I had something useful to add to the debate. But I am prompted to jump the gun by Kev-K's recent post. Please don't disappear, Kev-K! I entirely agree with your hope that we might harness the power of everyone here (like a mini wikipedia) to work out between us how to refine the system parameters and which pairs are most worthwhile to trade.

It seems that most people have reported here that the Simple System works for them. Just as TheThing said in his very first post. So keep the faith, Kev-K and all the many others who feel the same way. Let's not lose the elegant simplicity of something that fundamentally works by trying to re-invent it with extra bells and whistles or paint go-faster stripes down its side in the hope of getting more and quicker trades. There are countless speedy systems about for those who need more action. Another solid day trading system is invaluable for the many of us who can't or who don't want to hug their computers day and night.

So apologies for a somewhat odd first post. And thanks again to IndyCash and Haywire and... all the others too many to mention and of course, again, TheThing.

Best wishes to all from London

Chris
  • #548
  • Aug 23, 2007 2:09pm Aug 23, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting Haywire
Hi all,

Firstly all thanks to The Thing for sharing this system and for everybody who is trying to make the systems work.

I have studied this system in depth, ran back tests out of MT4's history center for the last seven years and a 14MB file is the result. All test were done manually. Please bear with me as I tell you what I have done.

The only thing that I have added was to open the trade with 3 lots, first lot close on TP 30, the second lot close on TP 60 and the last to close on TP 100. I needed to optimize the trades. SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY was 100 and for GBPCHF and GBPJPY IS 150, only forward testing will optimize this.

GBPJPY (30,100) 105 P/M (30,60,100) 173 P/M
GBPUSD (30,100) 70 P/M (30,60,100) 124 P/M

The data from MT4 reports Date,Time,Open,high,Low,Close,Volume. Time and volume gets deleted as it is of no use. I then subtract Open and high,Open and Low, Open and close to get a "average pip movement" / currency pair. What I have realized is that if the average pip movement is below 60 the pair will not perform well, in the testing it was true that below 50 it always ended up in a loss at the end of the time period, Please comment on this as it makes sense to me, some pairs were as low as 24, so here are the pairs that I have found that does work, GBPUSD (66), EURJPY (62), GBPCHF (94), GBPJPY (91).

As this forum progressed there were a few ideas that I also incorparated in my tests, one was that if there is a trend developing let it run, I then applied the same rules for "simple" at every open of the new candle. This test came back with exellent results +-700 pips/month for the 4 pairs, untill I broke down the data into end of year figures. The excel graph showed that in the first few years from 2000 that there was a downwards trend up to now as if the trends became less.

YEAR EURJPY GBPCHF GBPUSD GBPJPY TOTAL AVE/MONTH

1999 1152 1510 296 3070 6028 502
2000 5226 7191 3140 5934 21491 1790
2001 2265 5944 -90 2340 10459 871
2002 520 4783 654 3771 9728 810
2003 3005 4553 2818 6651 17027 1418
2004 1148 873 1528 1441 4990 415
2005 -1107 -1430 2038 1287 788 65
2006 -1327 1323 1880 -1911 -35 -2
2007 1213 219 -313 2867 3986 332

I have also tested the GBPUSD with and without sunday candles and it only made a difference in 1999 and 2007.

YEAR SUNDAY NO SUNDAY

1999 296 -342
2000 3140 3140
2001 -90 -90
2002 654 654
2003 2818 2818
2004 1528 1528
2005 2038 2038
2006 1880 1961
2007 -313 510

The other idea that came to mind was to TP of the 3 lots at 30 to give 90, only tested this on GBPUSD and GBPJPY,

GBPUSD 104 P/M
GBPJPY 108 P/M

I hope this info helps

Bravo Haywire!

Thanks so much for your fine work! I appreciate the effort it took to test SIMPLE like this. Look forward to reading and thinking about your results!

Thanks again!

K
  • #549
  • Aug 23, 2007 3:46pm Aug 23, 2007 3:46pm
I, too, came across this thread at the beginning of last week. Decided to test it (demo) with four mini lots, four trade days. Also, for a couple of days I tried to use it on every qualifying pair, as many as eight pairs (not wise for real account, of course, and wore me out when alarms started going off). Bottom line, 4 trading days, $4711.91, more than 5000 pips. Unusual, very trendy week. Decided to try to be more rational this week and not trade any similar pairs that might present themselves after getting burned badly Monday on EUR/CAD and USD/CAD. And Tues, no setups. Bottom line, gonna keep playing with it. Like others, still trying to come up with optimal SL and TP, but a % of ATR seems more reasonable than a flat number. Keep up the good work on this idea. Oh, suggestion for a possible strategy: if more than one pair is eligible for trade, pick one and enter the other when the first is at the first TP whend the stop is moved to breakeven. Don't know if it would work, but ii reduces exposure to catastrophe. The end.
  • #550
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:47am Aug 24, 2007 2:47am
Quoting Haywire
The data from MT4 reports Date,Time,Open,high,Low,Close,Volume. Time and volume gets deleted as it is of no use. I then subtract Open and high,Open and Low, Open and close to get a "average pip movement" / currency pair. What I have realized is that if the average pip movement is below 60 the pair will not perform well, in the testing it was true that below 50 it always ended up in a loss at the end of the time period, Please comment on this as it makes sense to me, some pairs were as low as 24, so here are the pairs that I have found that does work, GBPUSD (66), EURJPY (62), GBPCHF (94), GBPJPY (91).
AWESOME observation Haywire!

I have been quiet as I didnt want to post again until my backtester was 100% perfect.

But I had included that calcuation into the backtester so thought now might be a good time to mention it.... as it will allow people to easily to test those numbers and find others.

Just select "Calculate True Range" and an extra column will appear with that days range.
  • #551
  • Aug 24, 2007 4:20am Aug 24, 2007 4:20am
Thanks for your new backtester!

But I can't find the final results of the backtest in pips?!

Regards - Xaron
  • #552
  • Aug 24, 2007 5:39am Aug 24, 2007 5:39am
Quoting Xaron
Thanks for your new backtester!

But I can't find the final results of the backtest in pips?!

Regards - Xaron
Tick the box that says "Calculate Trade Results"


This is what the final version will look like with all options done btw: http://www.indycash.com/simple/test.php (not all options work on that test one)
  • #553
  • Aug 24, 2007 5:44am Aug 24, 2007 5:44am
Uh of course... Thanks!

I'd like to see the option to use a different start time again. Would that be possible? I use a different time as close than GMT 0:00.

Regards - Xaron
  • #554
  • Aug 24, 2007 5:51am Aug 24, 2007 5:51am
What is the current consensus on the ENTRY rules for the SIMPLE system? I know several different filters were considered and I see MA's on some of the more recent charts. Could someone please post the current entry rules, with filters?
  • #555
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:22am Aug 24, 2007 9:22am
Thanks for the latest backtester, IndyCash.

I've been trying to relate the results to the charts I'm using from North Finance. What close time does it use?

Thanks
Chris
  • #556
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:25am Aug 24, 2007 9:25am
Quoting Xaron
Uh of course... Thanks!

I'd like to see the option to use a different start time again. Would that be possible? I use a different time as close than GMT 0:00.

Regards - Xaron
I agree that was a good option, but trying to do it is what stumped me in the first place.. as the data does not always contain complete days of 96 x 15 minute periods (as no data I can find seems to) it's not possible for me to do that without some errors creeping into the output. :\
  • #557
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:48am Aug 24, 2007 10:48am
Quoting chris001
Thanks for the latest backtester, IndyCash.

I've been trying to relate the results to the charts I'm using from North Finance. What close time does it use?

Thanks
Chris
Indy,

Just an observation about your TERRIFIC tester . . . NorthFinance's data stream reports Open/Close-High/Low numbers that are slightly different from your tester. What is the data source for your tester?

Here in California (USA) I am -7 GMT. The NF data opens a daily bar a 2:00 PM PST (-7GMT) This time translates to 9:00 PM local time in the UK (2100 Hrs) 5:00 PM local is: 2400/0000 GMT (midnight in the UK) . . . etc.,

North Finance opens at +2 GMT

Again can't thank you enough for your efforts and hard work!

Best Regards, K
  • #558
  • Aug 24, 2007 1:26pm Aug 24, 2007 1:26pm
. . . that she traded using SIMPLE! :-)

+++++++

Tokyo housewife hid 1.7 million pounds in forex gains
Fri Aug 24, 1:22 AM ET


REUTERS

A financially savvy Tokyo housewife who made 400 million yen (1.7 million pounds) trading in foreign exchange markets was fined on Friday for evading tax, a court official said.

Yukiko Ikebe, 60, got a suspended jail sentence and was fined 34 million yen, after she used relatives' names to make her gains look smaller and avoid paying tax, NHK said. "She felt it was unfair to have to pay tax on her gains, when she made losses some years," NHK quoted the judge as saying. "She spent the money on kimonos and jewellery."

Forex trading has become more popular in recent years in Japan, where low interest rates have led retail investors to seek new sources of profit.
  • #559
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:04pm Aug 24, 2007 2:04pm
Quoting Kev-K
Indy,

Just an observation about your TERRIFIC tester . . . NorthFinance's data stream reports Open/Close-High/Low numbers that are slightly different from your tester. What is the data source for your tester?
ftp://ftp.akmos.ru/pub/Dealing/history/ is the data source.

They don't say what time offset from GMT it is collected at. Variance can also come in depending on the market the data is sourced from.... but the broker's address is in Moscow so I 'think' it's collected at GMT+4

I'd like to make it work with a variable starting hour like the original one... but I can't think of any way to do that and keep the results accurate.
  • #560
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:29pm Aug 24, 2007 2:29pm
Looking good for Sunday night!
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