Attachments: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

#301
Jan 13, 2026 4:31am Jan 13, 2026 4:31am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:13th January 2026.

Yen Slide Accelerates as Japanese Government Signals Concern.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_DLxG792

The US Dollar continues to do well in 2026 despite the US government’s attempt to lower interest rates. The main gains are being seen against the Japanese Yen, which is witnessing high levels of volatility. The Japanese government has gone as far as discussing the decline with the US, which is further damaging market sentiment.

The USDJPY has risen in value for two consecutive weeks and is now trading at the highest level since July 2024. The US Dollar is increasing against most currencies, but the bullish price movement is primarily being driven by the decline in the Yen.

The main factors driving the Japanese Yen lower are rumours that the Japanese Prime Minister is considering snap elections towards the end of February, and ministers’ concern over the weakening of the Japanese Yen. In the past, the Japanese Government has intervened to boost the currency. However, this has not yet taken place.

Takaichi Calling Snap Elections?
The market is closely watching media reports suggesting that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap general election to capitalise on her strong approval ratings. The new Japanese Prime Minister’s ratings over the past few months have considerably risen.

However, analysts caution that moving towards an early vote could make it more difficult to secure parliamentary approval for the government’s proposed budget, which features substantial spending measures aimed at supporting households and the broader economy. As a result, the Japanese Yen has come under pressure.

The Japanese Yen is currently the worst-performing currency in 2026, declining 1.40% so far. However, many economists believe an intervention within the upcoming days is likely if the Yen does not rebound. However, some analysts are indicating the new Japanese government is likely to wait for a larger decline before intervening. The Financial Times indicates an exchange rate above $160.000 would significantly increase the possibility of a currency intervention.

Concerns Over The Japanese Yen’s Decline
The Japanese Finance Minister, Mr Katayama, spoke to journalists last night after meeting with his US counterpart. Both the US Treasury, Scott Bessent, and Mr Katayama expressed concerns over the Yen’s decline. According to reports, the main concern for both individuals is not the decline in the currency, but the pace of the decline and its one-sidedness.

US Government Attempt to Bring Rates Down
The Trump administration continues its attempt to bring interest rates down through multiple routes. The route receiving the most attention is the investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. However, the US is also considering a cap on credit card rates and has ordered the purchase of mortgage bonds.

The US government is not hiding the fact that both moves aim to bring down interest rates in order to boost the US property market. Economists also note that towards the end of the Biden administration the US property market was in its worst state since the previous financial crisis.

The US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index started the week with a bearish price gap and a decline. However, the currency rose in value during the US session and is currently holding onto these gains this morning. Today’s Consumer Price Index (inflation) and tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (producer inflation) will be key.

Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.7%, which is moderately above the Fed’s target. If the inflation rate falls below this level, more frequent rate cuts will become possible. As a result, the US Dollar may again witness bearish swings. However, if the figure is higher, market participants will price in higher interest rates for the upcoming months.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis
In terms of technical analysis, the US Dollar remains favourable. The US Dollar Index remains above both Moving Averages and VWAP. The USDJPY is also experiencing ‘buy’ signals from trend-based indicators.

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HFM - USDJPY 6-Hour Chart

However, all traders are extremely cautious about a possible Japanese intervention and the upcoming inflation data. Nonetheless, the price of the USDJPY is likely to maintain buy signals if the exchange rate remains above 158.365. If the USDJPY drops below this level, signals are potentially likely to change.
Key Takeaways:

The US Dollar strengthens in 2026 despite government efforts to push interest rates lower.
USDJPY rises for two straight weeks, driven mainly by sharp Yen weakness.
Snap election speculation and budget risks put additional pressure on the Japanese Yen.
Economists expect possible yen intervention if USDJPY approaches or exceeds the 160 level.
Inflation data and intervention risk dominate near-term USDJPY trading sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#302
Jan 14, 2026 4:50am Jan 14, 2026 4:50am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:14th January 2026.

Slight Drop in Inflation Fails to Boost the Stock Markets.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...26315187a109b1

The US released its inflation rate for December yesterday, confirming no significant rise in inflation. However, investors had previously set forecasts indicating a slight rise. Investors consider lower inflation rates to be positive for the stock market due to their impact on interest rates. Nonetheless, the stock market was not able to maintain its upward price momentum.

The S&P500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones initially saw a positive reaction to the Consumer Price Index (inflation) release. However, all ultimately ended the day lower with the Dow Jones witnessing the strongest decline (-0.76%).

Why is the stock market witnessing a decline despite better-than-expected inflation figures?

US Consumer Inflation
The US inflation rate held at 2.7%, matching analysts’ expectations. Core inflation also remained unchanged at 2.6%, despite analysts expecting it to rise to 2.7%. Because inflation came in slightly better than expected, the stock market initially rose. The S&P 500 gained 0.39%, the Nasdaq rose 0.50%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.40%.

The assets later declined as investors concluded that inflation was not low enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates more frequently. According to reports, the chances of the Fed pausing this month rose from 95% to 97% and in March from 57% to 71%. As a result, the US Dollar rose in value while the stock market fell. In addition, investors are also monitoring the rise in Oil prices which have risen to a two-month high.

The Federal Reserve, inflation, and interest rates will remain in the spotlight this afternoon. The US will make public its producer inflation rate, which will again impact both future CPI and interest rates. In addition, six members of the Fed’s voting committee will speak this afternoon.

The Federal Open Market Committee members are likely to comment on the Fed’s independence, the investigation into the chairman, and interest rates. Those scheduled to give speeches include Mr Paulson, Mr Miran, Mr Kashkari, Mr Bostic, and Mr William. If the Fed maintains its hawkish tone and indicates no rate cuts in the first quarter, the stock market is likely to decline further.

Trump’s Push to Lower Interest Rates & Boost the Property Market
President Trump unveiled a plan to ban large institutional investors from buying family homes to curb rising housing prices. Critics argue the move is largely symbolic as investor strategies continue to evolve. Supporters believe the policy could help restore balance to the housing market. Possible consequences include legal challenges, increased market volatility, and only a modest effect on overall affordability.

In addition, the US administration is also considering capping interest rates on Credit Cards. In response to both developments, certain stocks fell in value. For example, American Express stocks have fallen 7%, Visa 8%, and Mastercard almost 6%.

JP Morgan Earnings Report
Other stocks witnessing a significant decline are JP Morgan Stocks, which fell 4.00%. JP Morgan delivered a mixed but solid earnings report, supported by strong trading revenue, steady net interest income, and resilient asset and wealth management performance. However, headline results were weighed down by higher credit reserves tied to the Apple Card acquisition and weaker investment banking activity.

The CEO was cautiously optimistic about the US economy while acknowledging regulatory and credit risks, leaving investor sentiment balanced between the bank’s underlying strength and near-term headwinds.

S&P500
The S&P 500 is one of the indices that is most exposed to assets negatively affected by this move. Out of the most influential stocks for the S&P 500, only 50% rose in value on Tuesday, which is not high enough to obtain a buy signal. In addition, the VIX index is also continuing to rise, pointing towards a lower risk appetite amongst traders.

Even with the recent decline, the price of the S&P 500 remains above the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average. The RSI remains at a neutral level on the 2-hour chart and the price is trading below the VWAP. For this reason, the price is not obtaining an all-round signal pointing in one direction. However, after today’s Federal Reserve speeches and PPI release the index may form a stronger sense of direction.

In the short term, if the price remains below $6,961.45, the asset is likely to maintain its current sell signal from Moving Averages.

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HFM - S&P 500 2-Hour Chart
Key Takeaways:

US inflation came in slightly better than expected for stocks, but not low enough to shift Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.
Stocks initially rose after the CPI release but closed lower as investors priced in a prolonged Fed pause.
Rising oil prices and a stronger US Dollar added further pressure to equity markets.
Trump’s proposals targeting housing investors and credit card rates weighed on financial and payment stocks.
Market direction now hinges on upcoming PPI data and Federal Reserve speeches, with volatility increasing.

#303
Jan 15, 2026 5:26am Jan 15, 2026 5:26am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:15th January 2026.

From ETFs to Technicals: What’s Fuelling Silver’s 2026 Rally.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ilver_Featured

The best-performing asset in 2026 so far is Silver. Silver paused during the Asian session this morning after rising for four consecutive days. However, technical analysis is not yet indicating a prolonged downturn.

So, why is Silver the best-performing asset of 2026, and what are analysts predicting for 2026?

Factors driving Silver’s Bullish Momentum
The increase that Silver is experiencing is largely due to demand from institutional investors rather than physical demand. According to the latest reports and projections, demand for physical Silver is likely to slightly decrease over the next 12 months.

Institutions are buying Silver for similar reasons to Gold, however, Silver is much more volatile and cheaper to purchase. The slightly lower inflation readings from this week, projections for more frequent interest rate cuts, and questions over Fed independence are increasing demand.

Economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, nor in March 2026. For this reason, the US Dollar has slightly risen while stocks have fallen. However, economists do believe that in the second and third quarters of the year, the Fed will need to make frequent rate cuts. On average, economists believe the Fed will need to cut by 0.75% by the end of the year. This would take the Federal Fund Rate to 3.00%, the lowest since the summer of 2022.

For this reason, investors expect the Federal Reserve to delay cuts in the first quarter but eventually cut rates later in the year. At the same time, investors are incorporating political risks into their strategy, which is resulting in a need for Gold and Silver. These include the Federal Reserve’s independence and US global intentions such as within Greenland.

In addition, investors are also treading cautiously as the US Midterms will take place later in the year.

Investors Buying Silver ETFs
Market participants are reviewing the Silver Institute’s early 2025 outlook, which expects global industrial silver demand to fall 2% to 665 million ounces. The decline reflects trade policy uncertainty and reduced use in electronics and photochemical applications.

Demand for physical bars and coins is also expected to drop to a seven-year low, down 4% from 2024. However, strong investment inflows into Silver ETFs rose 18%, with net inflows of 187 million ounces. This is likely to offset weaker physical demand and help support prices, particularly as investors seek protection from inflation and currency volatility.

On the CME, Silver trading activity spiked on 7 January, with volumes reaching 195,000 contracts, well above the early-month average.

XAGUSD - Technical Analysis

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HFM - 15-Minute Chart

Due to the bullish price movement, indicators and price action are understandably pointing towards Silver’s trend continuing. Even with the current retracement, the price fell to the previous low and did not necessarily form significant breakouts.

When looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the metal remains above the key Moving Average, above the neutral area of the RSI, and the MACD. For this reason, indicators continue to point towards buyers maintaining control. Fundamental analysis also indicates this, with inflation reading slightly lower. The main risk for Silver and Gold is the rise in the US Dollar. If the US Dollar declines, Silver can potentially strengthen further.

The only indicators currently pointing towards a downward price movement are the 200-bar Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe. The price currently remains below this level, giving a bearish bias. However, the price is currently rising and trading close to this level. If the price forms a bullish breakout at $90.185, the bearish bias is likely to fade.

Key Takeaways:

Silver leads 2026 performance. It’s the top-performing asset so far, despite a brief pause after four consecutive days of gains.
Institutional demand drives momentum. Growth is fuelled by ETFs and institutional buying rather than physical silver demand.
Fed rate expectations influence buying. Investors anticipate rate cuts later in 2026, boosting silver and gold as hedges.
Physical demand is declining. Industrial use and coins/bars are projected to drop, but ETF inflows (up 18%) support prices.
Technical indicators remain bullish. Silver’s price is holding above key moving averages and RSI/MACD signals, suggesting buyers remain in control.

#304
Jan 16, 2026 4:41am Jan 16, 2026 4:41am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:16th January 2026.

USDJPY: Intervention On The Table With US Support.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...-Exchange_rate

Japan's finance minister tells journalists that the Japanese government is considering currency intervention to support the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen Index has already fallen more than 1.00% in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Though, the main concern for the Japanese Federal Government is the decline against the US Dollar, which at one point was almost at a 2% decline.

The Japanese Yen is currently the second best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session, after the New Zealand Dollar.

Will the Japanese Government Boost the Currency?
Analysts cannot advise that a currency intervention is certain without any doubt. However, over the past week, the Japanese government has told journalists that they will support the currency. When asked about direct currency intervention, the finance minister said the option remains on the table.

For this reason, many traders do believe the government will boost the currency with an intervention, or if they opt not to intervene directly, they will explore other options. It is important to note that the Bank of Japan is not likely to adjust interest rates without the snap elections ending first: the BOJ is due to announce their decision on Japan’s monetary policy next Friday, however, the snap election will most likely not take place until mid-February.

Previously the government's interventions have not been successful other than a short-lived spike. However, according to Japan’s finance minister, on this occasion the move would be supported by the US.

Will the Bank of Japan Increase Interest Rates?
Some economists argue that with Japan’s new expansionary fiscal policy vision, the BOJ is more easily able to increase rates. Although, with the BOJ it's never that simple and they are traditionally known to move slowly.

Market participants are reviewing December’s wholesale inflation data. Monthly inflation slowed from 0.3% to 0.1%, while annual inflation eased from 2.7% to 2.4%, mainly due to lower fuel prices. However, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, which supports the case for maintaining a hawkish policy stance.

According to a Reuters survey of leading economists, most expect the Bank of Japan to pause until July before raising interest rates again. Whereas, other economists believe the cut could come as early as April. The Bank of Japan will most likely raise rates by 0.25% and at most rise to 1.25% by the end of the year.

If the Bank of Japan does not raise rates, the government will struggle to support the Japanese Yen in 2026.

The Fed and Economic Data Support the US Dollar
The US Dollar is trading lower this morning, but has been one of the best performing currencies of the week. The US Dollar Index has risen to its highest price since December 9th.

Inflation has read more or less as per expectations, but economic data has been significantly higher. The Weekly Unemployment Claims fell to 198,000, the lowest in 6 weeks and lower than expectations. The US Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Index have also all risen above expectations.

Due to this, the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to pause in January and March unless data deteriorates. According to the Chicago Exchange, there is a 78% chance of no rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. By the end of the year there is a 32% chance of 2 rate cuts, a 27% chance of 1 rate cut and a 21% chance of 3 rate cuts this year. However, the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness for the first quarter is supporting the US Dollar.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis

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HFM - USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

When it comes to government interventions, spreads tend to widen during the sudden spike in volatility and the price movement happens relatively quickly. Therefore, traders may consider an earlier entry with a medium-term view.

On a 2-hour chart, the USDJPY has retraced back to the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average which can act as a support level. However, if this level is broken, sell signals may materialise on this timeframe. The MACD and RSI on the 2-hour chart are indicating downward price movement.

On the 5-Minute timeframe the 200-bar Simple Moving Average and VWAP are indicating a bearish bias. According to the 200-bar EMA, sell signals are likely to remain as long as the price remains below 158.400. The main support level can be seen at 157.760.
Key Takeaways:

Japan’s finance minister says currency intervention remains an option as the Yen weakens against the US Dollar.
Traders expect government support, but the Bank of Japan is unlikely to change interest rates until after the snap election.
Economists see limited rate hikes in 2026, with policy rates likely peaking near 1.25%.
Strong US economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve continue to support the US Dollar.
Technical indicators suggest downside risk for USDJPY unless prices move back above key resistance levels.

#305
Jan 19, 2026 4:23am Jan 19, 2026 4:23am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:19th January 2026.

Trump’s Greenland Tariffs Shake Global Markets: Europe & NATO Pushes Back.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ured_1_abcnJzp
President Trump sinks the global stock market amid fears over a new trade war over the status of Greenland. Global indices, including those in the US, Europe and Asia, trade lower on Monday, with European stocks experiencing the largest falls. In addition to global indices experiencing a bearish decline, the US Dollar also falls at the market open.

The downward price movement comes as a result of President Trump increasing the pressure on Denmark and the EU to agree to the purchase of Greenland. According to the US administration, the purchase is required for ‘global and national security’. In the President’s weekend speech, journalists were told that the US will impose tariffs on the UK and EU starting on 1 February. According to the President, this will happen unless they support his Greenland purchase proposals.

US Tariffs on the UK and Europe
The trade tariffs that have so far been announced are 10% on all trade starting from 1 February, rising to 25% on 1 June. The EU, UK, and other NATO countries are pushing back hard on the US demands and are looking for a compromise. According to political experts, the EU is attempting to agree to a joint presence within Greenland. This includes both military, trade, and institutional presence.

However, according to the US President and administration, the US will only agree to a total purchase of the island. The latest member of the administration to speak on the matter is the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. According to the Treasury, the European’s proposal on Greenland is ‘outsourcing our security to other countries’. Mr Bessent was quick to reject this while speaking on NBC news. Mr Bessent also made it clear that there is a race to the Arctic and the US is looking to build a protective ‘dome’ around the US hemisphere. The US’s main concerns in the region are Russia and China.
The DAX & The EU Response
The DAX is witnessing a decline of 1.30% due to the US-EU tensions over the weekend. The bearish price gap on Monday measures 1.45%, and the index is trading at a two-week low. The pressure from sellers is solely due to political tensions and the tariffs that have been thrown on the table.

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HFM - DAX 1-Hour Chart

European leaders have been quick to condemn the tariff as dangerous, warning that they undermine transatlantic relations, and are unacceptable. US leaders have been quick to make statements emphasising sovereignty, unity, and international law. Currently, all EU countries as well as other NATO members have made it clear they will not sell Greenland to the US and will plan countermeasures.

Countermeasures, in simple terms, are likely to increase military presence on the island and counter tariffs. Some members of the EU have already met on Sunday evening, but more meetings are due throughout the week. French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly urged the European Union to use its ‘anti-coercion instrument,’ often called the ‘trade bazooka.’ This tool would allow the EU to limit US access to European markets or introduce export restrictions as part of a wider set of possible responses. It is being rumoured the German Chancellor also agrees. Other heads of state have mentioned imposing tariffs on the US worth $108 billion.

Greenland and Denmark both held demonstrations over the weekend in their capital cities. As we can see, the US, NATO, and the EU are gearing up for what looks to be high tensions for the whole of 2026. Unless an agreement is reached, the stock market will struggle to maintain the bullish momentum from the past two-plus years.

Technical analysts advise the price will be very reactive to comments made on the situation, meaning fundamental analysis will also be key. The DAX’s decline has taken the index from a Buy signal on the two-hour chart to a ‘neutral’ signal.

NASDAQ Hits 17-Day Low
The Nasdaq is witnessing the largest decline within the US after the US-EU tensions over the weekend. The bearish price gap on Monday measures 0.95%, and the index is trading at a 17-day low. Even though global indices are trading lower, the Nasdaq is experiencing slightly stronger bearish signals.

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HFM - NASDAQ 3-Hour Chart

The VIX is currently trading more than 9% higher, one of the strongest increases in recent months. The higher VIX indicates a lower risk appetite within the market and fear amongst investors. The price of the Nasdaq is currently trading below the day’s VWAP and below Moving Averages.

For this reason, the Nasdaq is maintaining its bearish bias and, according to analysts, this potentially remains until further clarity. The main price driver will remain any comments from politicians on Greenland and tariffs. However, Netflix will also release its quarter earnings report tomorrow after market close. Netflix is the 14th most influential company for the Nasdaq, and its earnings report is also likely to impact its performance.

Key Takeaways:

Stocks fall as fears of a US-EU trade war over Greenland spike, with European stocks hit hardest. The US Dollar is also weakening.
Trump threatens tariffs on the UK and EU from 1 February(10%, rising to 25% by June). Trump advises tariffs will be removed once they agree to a full US purchase of Greenland.
Europe and NATO reject the proposal, emphasising sovereignty, unity, and international law, and preparing countermeasures, including possible tariffs.
Stock indices show bearish signals: the DAX and Nasdaq are at multi-week lows. The VIX rose 9%, signalling increased market fear and lower risk appetite.

#306
Jan 20, 2026 3:39am Jan 20, 2026 3:39am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date:20th January 2026.

Global Markets Volatile as US-EU Trade Tensions Rise and Japan’s Bond Yields Surge.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=HFM-greenland

Global financial markets entered the week under renewed pressure as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe reignited fears of a fresh trade war. Investor sentiment weakened sharply after US President Donald Trump intensified rhetoric surrounding Greenland, threatening broad tariffs on several European nations just as Wall Street heads into a pivotal earnings season.

The convergence of geopolitical risk, legal uncertainty around US trade policy, and rising global bond yields has pushed markets into a defensive posture, weighing on equities while supporting safe-haven assets and volatility-sensitive instruments.

US Stock Futures Drop as Trade Risks Re-Enter the Spotlight
US equity futures signalled a sharply weaker start to Tuesday’s session following the holiday closure. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid more than 1%, implying a drop of over 500 points at the open. S&P 500 futures declined around 1.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed with losses exceeding 1.4%.

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The move reflects mounting concern that renewed trade frictions could undermine corporate earnings expectations, disrupt cross-border supply chains, and slow global economic momentum, particularly at a time when equity valuations remain stretched.

US stocks are coming off a negative week, leaving markets more vulnerable to macro and geopolitical shocks.

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Greenland Tensions Reignite US–EU Trade War Fears
Over the weekend, President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from eight European NATO members unless negotiations begin over the ‘complete and total purchase of Greenland’. Under the proposal, tariffs would start at 10% in early February and rise to as much as 25% by mid-year.

European leaders swiftly rejected the threat, warning that such actions risk damaging transatlantic relations and triggering retaliatory measures. Reports suggest the EU is considering counter-tariffs worth up to $108 billion, raising concerns over a broader escalation that could weigh heavily on global trade and investment flows.

Trump’s upcoming address at the World Economic Forum in Davos is expected to be closely scrutinised for further policy signals.

Legal Uncertainty Adds Another Layer of Risk
Markets are also watching a potential US Supreme Court ruling on whether the President’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is constitutional. A decision could arrive as soon as this week.

While US officials have expressed confidence that the policy will stand, any legal challenge to executive trade authority could significantly alter expectations around future tariffs, adding further volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities.

Earnings Season Begins Under a Cloud of Uncertainty
Beyond geopolitics, investor focus is shifting to a busy US earnings calendar. Major companies including Netflix, Intel, and Johnson & Johnson are set to report, with forward guidance expected to be more influential than headline results.

Consensus forecasts point to S&P 500 earnings growth of roughly 12%-15% this year. However, lingering ‘Sell America’ sentiment, rising geopolitical risks, and tighter financial conditions suggest downside risks remain, particularly for multinational firms with significant overseas exposure.

Asian Equity Markets Mixed as Political and Rate Risks Collide
Asian equities mostly declined amid rising global risk aversion.

Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell more than 1%, pressured by surging bond yields and election uncertainty.
China: Mainland and Hong Kong markets edged lower, tracking global weakness.
South Korea: The Kospi posted modest gains, bucking the regional trend.
Australia: The ASX 200 slipped as external headwinds outweighed domestic factors.

For FX and rates traders, Japan remains a key focal point, with bond-market volatility carrying potential implications for capital flows and yen dynamics.

Japan’s Bond Rout Deepens, Sending Global Yield Shockwaves
A sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds intensified on Tuesday, pushing long-dated yields to record levels and adding to global market unease. Investors reacted negatively to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election platform, which includes a proposal to cut taxes on food without clearly identifying a funding source.

The yield on Japan’s 40-year government bond surged beyond 4%, marking the highest level since the instrument was introduced in 2007 and the first time in over three decades that any Japanese sovereign maturity has reached such territory. Yields on both 30- and 40-year bonds jumped more than 25 basis points in a single session, the steepest move since the market turmoil following last year’s US tariff shock.

A weak auction of 20-year bonds earlier in the day reinforced investor concerns about rising government spending, fiscal sustainability, and inflation risks. Since Takaichi took office in October, yields on Japan’s 20- and 40-year debt have climbed by around 80 basis points.

Importantly for global markets, volatility in Tokyo spilled over into US Treasuries during Asian trading hours, with 30-year US yields rising by roughly 7 basis points, highlighting Japan’s growing influence on global rate dynamics.

Market participants are increasingly alert to the risk that continued instability in Japanese bonds could reverberate across global fixed-income markets, particularly as Japan’s long-term yields now exceed those of Germany at comparable maturities.

While some long-term investors see rising yields as improving value, especially on a currency-hedged basis, the broader concern is that bond markets are signalling discomfort with Japan’s fiscal trajectory. With a snap election scheduled for February 8, volatility in Japanese assets is expected to remain elevated.

European Stocks Slide on Trade Concerns
European equity markets closed sharply lower, led by export-heavy indices. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 suffered notable losses, while the UK’s FTSE 100 declined more modestly. European leaders warned that escalating tariffs could spark a damaging cycle of retaliation, further clouding the region’s already fragile growth outlook.

Gold Holds Near Record High as Haven Demand Persists
Gold prices remained just below record highs, supported by safe-haven demand and a softer US dollar. Silver, after briefly reaching an all-time high, eased slightly as traders locked in profits. Geopolitical uncertainty, rising bond volatility, and concerns over global growth continue to underpin defensive positioning, keeping precious metals in focus.

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Oil Prices Steady as Supply Concerns Offset Geopolitical Risks
Crude oil prices stabilised, balancing geopolitical uncertainty against concerns that supply is outpacing demand. Brent crude hovered in the mid-$60s per barrel, while WTI remained below $60.

Despite tensions surrounding US-EU relations, traders remain focused on increasing OPEC+ output and warnings from the International Energy Agency that a surplus could emerge this year. A weaker US dollar has provided some near-term support, but the broader outlook remains cautious.

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Central Banks and Inflation Data in Focus
Looking ahead, markets are bracing for key macro events:

Federal Reserve: Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at the next meeting, as policymakers balance cooling labour markets against inflation still above target.
Bank of Japan: This week’s policy meeting will be closely watched following the surge in bond yields.
US Inflation Data: Upcoming releases of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure may shape expectations for the policy path ahead.

Key Takeaways for Traders
In the days ahead, market direction is likely to be driven by:

Developments in US–EU trade negotiations
Earnings guidance and analyst revisions
Japanese bond market volatility and global yield spillovers
Safe-haven flows into gold and FX markets
Central bank communication and inflation trends

With geopolitics, earnings, and monetary policy all in play, conditions point to continued volatility, placing a premium on risk management, flexibility, and cross-asset awareness.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

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#307
Jan 21, 2026 3:56am Jan 21, 2026 3:56am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 21st January 2026.

Trump Davos Speech To Determine Markets’ Next Move.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Gold_Featured

Gold continues to increase in value due to concerns over the NATO alliance, the Greenland crisis and bond yields. This week, the price of Gold has risen by almost 6% taking the safe-haven asset to an all-time high.

The escalations regarding the status of Greenland have been a well-covered story and price driver. However, this is not the sole reason for investors increasing their exposure to Gold. In December, HFM’s analysts explained technical and fundamental indicators which point towards Gold rising to $5,000. The price this year has so far risen by 12.50% and is 3.10% away from reaching this target.

Trump Davos Speech To Spike Volatility
The US President, Donald Trump, held his last press conference at the White House before travelling to Davos, Switzerland. In the press conference, the President was extremely clear that his speech will be focusing on Greenland and that many meetings are scheduled throughout the day with various leaders.

The outcome of these meetings and Trump’s speech at 18:00 GMT Time will be key in determining the future price movement of Gold. However, traders should note that air traffic is likely to delay the speech. If investors feel the speech is ‘aggressive’ or gives indications of a new trade war, the price of Gold is likely to remain in high demand. This is due to its status as a safe-haven asset.

So far, political analysts say his recent press conference was more balanced than his previous comments. On allied relations, he said he expects cooperation from NATO and called European leaders his ‘friends’. Nonetheless, the market continues to increase its exposure to Gold and is not taking any risks until tonight’s speech.

Is There a Bond Crisis?
Currently, analysts are advising that there is not a bond crisis. However, there are clear signs of stress. Due to this, investors are more eagerly purchasing Gold.

Even though the latest US bond auction was relatively successful, the risks can still be seen in bond yields. US bond yields have risen to their highest since August 2025 and the Japanese 10-year bond yields have risen to levels not seen in two decades.

Japan’s 10-year bond yield has risen because the Bank of Japan is no longer keeping rates artificially low. The BOJ has started raising rates and buying fewer bonds, while investors are also worried about inflation and government spending. Since the central bank is stepping back from strict control, bond yields are now free to rise to more normal, market-driven levels.

Rising bond yields are known to pressure the price of Gold. However, yields are currently rising while investors believe most global central banks will need to cut their interest rates. For this reason, higher bond yields are actually supporting Gold.

Other factors are also supporting Gold, such as the performance of the stock market. The S&P 500 has fallen to a monthly low in just three days and companies are forecasting weaker performance in the upcoming months. Netflix is the most recent company to announce its earnings report, which beat expectations. However, the stock fell more than 5% as the CEO gave a dim outlook for 2026. If stocks continue to underperform, Gold may again see higher demand.

The Greenland Crisis
The US stance on Greenland has been well-documented. European leaders have signalled concern about the dispute but their stance is less known. France and the EU are looking at measures to boost Arctic security and defend Danish sovereignty over Greenland, including potential defence and investment packages.

If Europe takes a similar stance to the UK, in other words, not reacting and triggering a trade war. The bullish trend may lose its momentum as markets will view this as a de-escalation.

XAUUSD - Technical Analysis

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HFM - XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart

So far this week, Gold’s bullish trend has not seen a retracement, which indicates the strength and momentum of the trend. However, the price is showing as overbought on most timeframes when analysing the Relative Strength Index. Markets are not currently showing concern that the price is overbought as there are fundamental reasons for demand.

Nonetheless, investors will monitor retracements and look to ensure any short-term downward price movement does not endanger trades. When monitoring short-term timeframes, key indicators continue to point towards a bullish trend. Moving Averages indicate the buy signals are likely to remain for as long as the price remains above the $4,802-$4,817 levels. Buy signals will particularly strengthen if the price rises above $4,866.

How To Trade Gold Webinar Registration Here!

Key Takeaways:

Gold has hit record highs, rising nearly 6% this week and over 12% year-to-date.
Geopolitical tensions around Greenland, NATO, and Trump’s Davos speech are driving safe-haven demand.
Rising US and Japanese bond yields, alongside expected future rate cuts, are supporting Gold.
Weak stock markets and dim corporate outlooks are increasing investor demand for gold.
Gold remains in a strong bullish trend but is showing overbought signals that traders are not yet concerned about due to recent price drivers.

#308
Jan 26, 2026 4:09pm Jan 26, 2026 4:09pm

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 26th January 2026.

Are the US Eying A Weaker USD?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_Dtph1qA
The US Dollar Index has seen its strongest decline in eight months and has fallen to its lowest since September 2025. The downward price movement is due to threats of new tariffs on key trade partners, including the EU and Canada, as well as intervention talks between corporations to boost the Japanese Yen.

A key question during the elections which is now resurfacing is whether the US is aiming for a weaker Dollar. The US president has been clear that he is looking to bring back manufacturing to the US. Countries looking to boost manufacturing and exports tend to benefit from a weaker currency, such as China, Japan and Korea.

USDJPY - Are the US and Japan Coordinating Currency Intervention
The Japanese Yen saw two major price movements, the first on Friday where the price rose 1.99% and another on Monday increasing a further 1.15%. The USDJPY is now trading at its lowest level since November 2025. The Japanese Government has intervened into the currency exchange on four occasions over the past three years.

The Japanese government does not confirm if a price movement is due to intervention once it happens. However, government officials have been signalling intervention was imminent if the price did not quickly move in favour of the Yen.

Investors should note that the decline in the USDJPY is causing the value of the US Dollar to decline in general. In the past week, the Japanese Finance Minister Mr Katayama, and the US Treasury Secretary, Mr Bessent have made comments about supporting the Yen against the US Dollar. For many investors watching the Dollar, signs that the US is willing to support a stronger Yen revive talk of coordinated action to push the US Dollar lower. As a result, the US Dollar is declining against all currencies as this move hurts sentiment towards the currency.

The US Dollar is the worst performing currency of today and this year so far. The best performing currencies have been the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen. Strategists also note that these three currencies are at a low risk from geopolitical tensions and tariffs.

US Geopolitical Tensions and Gold
The US over the past week has been the centre of both internal political crises as well as global ones. Investors are struggling to avoid pricing in the possibility of trade tariffs at some point in 2026. As a result, countries and institutions are limiting their exposure to the US Dollar.

Gold’s price moves are also another indication that investors expect the value of the US Dollar to decline in the medium to long term. On Monday, Gold rose above $5,000 for the first time and is up 10% over the past six days. A key price driver is US Dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions.

Risks of a US Shutdown?
Funding expires on 30 January, and Congress has not yet passed a full budget or a new stopgap bill. As a result, investors are weighing the risk of another US Shutdown. This is another reason for the US Dollar’s decline and the upward price movement seen in metals. President Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada over that country's trade deal with China, even though he had previously called the agreement ‘a good thing’.

How Long Can the US Dollar Index Fall?
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HFM - US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Even though the current price of the Dollar seems to be relatively low, the price remains higher than that seen before the COVID lockdowns. Nonetheless, the price remains below the five-year average price and slightly below the ten-year average.

Key support levels can be seen at 89.41, 91.89, and 94.55. Traders will expect the price to fall towards these levels if the currency remains under pressure. Trend-based indicators such as Moving Averages, Crossovers and the VWAP all indicate downward price movement. However, this will also depend on the Federal Reserve’s guidance on interest rates and the US budget developments.

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday evening at 19:00 GMT.

Key Takeaways:

Dollar Index hits eight-month low amid tariff threats and speculation of coordinated yen-support intervention.
Yen surges sharply; USDJPY falls to November 2025 lows as intervention signals intensify.
Comments from Katayama and Bessent fuel expectations of US-Japan coordination weakening the dollar.
Geopolitical tensions, shutdown risk, and gold’s record rally reinforce bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar.
Technical indicators point lower, with key Dollar Index support at 94.55, 91.89, and 89.41.

#309
Jan 27, 2026 5:13am Jan 27, 2026 5:13am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 27th January 2026.

AUD Rises on Hawkish RBA, Gold Prices and Strong Economy.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ollar_and_Flag

The Australian Dollar continues to be the best performing currency of 2026, rising by 3.70% so far. The Australian Dollar was also one of the best performing currencies of 2025 and rose against the US Dollar. In 2025, the Australian Dollar rose against the US Dollar for the first time in five years.

The Australian Dollar is primarily increasing in value for four key reasons:

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish guidance
Positive economic data
Limited exposure to current geopolitical tensions, which are primarily impacting the US, EU, and UK.
Gold, the US Dollar and AUD correlation.

AUD - Upcoming Economic Data
Australia is due to announce its latest consumer price index (inflation rate) on Wednesday morning at 00:30 GMT. Analysts expect the CPI to rise from 3.4% to 3.5% which supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance. The inflation rate comes at a critical time as the RBA is due to announce its interest rate decision next Tuesday (3 February).

If the inflation rate indeed rises from 3.4% to 3.5%, the RBA is likely to continue to indicate no interest rate cuts. Currently, analysts are contemplating whether the RBA will choose to increase interest rates or stick to a pause. Many economists and markets are now assigning a significant chance (around 50%) that the RBA will raise the cash rate by 0.25% at its 3 February meeting. This follows months of inflation pressure and strong labour market data.

If, however, the inflation rate increases above 3.5%, the possibility of an interest rate hike will significantly increase. In its latest press conference, the RBA governor, Michelle Bullock, told journalists that the central bank does not expect any interest rate cuts in the ‘foreseeable future’. The Commonwealth Bank and NAB expect the RBA to increase rates by 0.25%, whereas Westpac expects a pause.

Either way a key deciding factor will be tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index. If an interest rate adjustment becomes likely, the Australian Dollar is likely to rise. At the same time, if the RBA pauses but remains extremely hawkish for the future, again the AUD may find support.

Australia’s Economic Data and Geographical Advantage
Australia also benefits from its geographical location and limited direct exposure to current global geopolitical tensions. Unlike regions such as the US, Europe, and the UK, ongoing conflicts and trade disputes involve Australia less directly. Nonetheless, the country is still a member of the G20 and has a history of stability.

As global risks remain elevated, investors are increasingly seeking currencies linked to politically stable and lower-risk regions. This has supported demand for the Australian dollar, as it offers exposure to a developed economy with strong institutions while helping investors reduce their exposure to global geopolitical uncertainty.

In addition to this, Australia’s latest economic data release comes from the employment sector. The country’s unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025. Furthermore, the employment sector added a further 65,000 employed individuals, beating expectations and recording the highest growth since May 2025.

Is Gold Supporting The Australian Dollar?

It has been well documented that the Trump administration may look to slowly lower the value of the US Dollar. The US Federal Government may look to do so in order to support manufacturing. In addition to this, many institutions and countries are looking to limit their risk involved with the turbulence in the US and the US Dollar.

Even though economists do not indicate any severe decline, most believe the administration prefers a slightly weaker Dollar. As a result, other currencies such as the Euro, Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc are finding support. However, the AUD is also finding support from the rise in Gold. Australia is the second-largest producer of Gold and fifth-largest for Silver.

Australian equities and commodity sectors (including gold miners) have been boosted by the gold rally, which can improve overall market sentiment towards Australia. Currently, this is supporting the AUD, but only if the RBA continues to remain hawkish.

Technical Analysis - AUDUSD

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HFM - AUDUSD Weekly Chart

In terms of technical analysis, AUDUSD is obtaining bullish trend signals from momentum-based indicators. However, the exchange rate is at a major resistance level at 0.69365. At the same time, the price remains at an overbought level on the RSIon the daily timeframe. As a result, investors should be cautious of retracements and limited bullish price movement.

However, trend-based indicators continue to point to a bullish trend in the medium to longer term. If the price returns above 0.69185, the bullish signals may again strengthen for short-term price action.

Key Takeaways:

The Australian Dollar leads currency performance in 2026, rising 3.7 per cent and continuing its 2025 strength.
Its rise is supported by hawkish RBA guidance, strong economic data, gold correlation, and geopolitical stability.
Australia will release the CPI on 28 January, potentially influencing the RBA’s 3 February interest rate decision.
Low exposure to global conflicts and strong employment growth make the Australian Dollar attractive to investors.
Technical analysis shows short-term bullish momentum, but resistance near 0.69365 and overbought RSI suggest possible retracements.

#310
Jan 28, 2026 3:22am Jan 28, 2026 3:22am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 28th January 2026.

Trump Embraces a Weaker US Dollar.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ured_1_abcnJzp
The US Dollar continues to decline as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A decision not to adjust interest rates is almost certain, but investors will be hoping for more guidance on March’s decision.

However, the hawkish Federal Reserve is not supporting the US Dollar in any way. The US Dollar Index is trading at its lowest price since early 2022 and the President’s recent comments are fuelling poor sentiment towards the currency.

The decline in the US Dollar is consequently supporting Gold and Metal prices, while institutions increase exposure to the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Approaches 15-Year High Against US Dollar
The US is experiencing particularly strong economic data and a resilient employment sector. Inflation on the other hand remains above the Federal Reserve’s target but below most economists’ projections. Nonetheless, even with inflation remaining lower than expectations, the Federal Reserve is under no pressure to cut interest rates in the economy.

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 in order to ensure inflation does not rise. The Fed is likely to cut on one occasion in the second quarter and another in the third quarter. However, the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve is not supporting the US Dollar.

The decline in the US Dollar is driven by questions over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Additional pressure comes from the upcoming appointment of a new chairman in May and the president’s embracing a weaker Dollar. Markets expect the new chairman to be more in line with the administration’s dovish stance. Overnight, the US President, Donald Trump, told investors that ‘I think the value of the Dollar is great’ and he would not be worried about the decline continuing.

Reports suggest the Trump administration could favour a gradual decline in the US Dollar to support manufacturing. At the same time, institutions and countries are working to reduce exposure to US volatility.

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HFM - USDCHF Weekly Chart

The Swiss Franc is one of the best performing currencies of the day and is the third best of the year so far. Investors are increasing their exposure to the Swiss Franc due to its safe haven status. In addition, the Swiss Franc is less at risk of any backlashes from geopolitical issues. This is also supporting the price of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

Australian Inflation Continues to Rise
The Australian Dollar continues to find support from positive economic data fuelling speculation of no interest rate cuts in 2026. This morning, the monthly Consumer Price Index rose from 0.0% to 1.0% and the inflation rate rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. As a result, the inflation rate remains unstable and may indicate the country’s monetary policy is not adequately restrictive.

Previously economists were placing the probability of a rate hike at 50%. Economists are yet to confirm their new projection after the latest inflation data. However, the chances of an interest rate hike have likely risen.

Gold - A Weaker Dollar Continues to Fuel

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HFM - XAUUSD Weekly Chart

Gold’s price continues to increase for a seventh consecutive day and has already risen more than 20% this month. However, technical analysts are becoming increasingly cautious about an overbought price. The Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates in this quarter, and the stock market continues to rise while the economy performs well.

The price of the US Dollar Index is retracing slightly higher after the recent dip. If the price continues to rise above 96.00, the chances of Gold retracing will also grow. In addition, the VIX index has fallen more than 1.50% this morning, indicating a risk-on appetite. This can also slightly pressure Gold in the short term.

Key Takeaways:

The US Dollar weakens as markets await Fed guidance despite rates likely remaining unchanged.
Dollar sentiment is hurt by political pressure and doubts over Fed independence.
A weaker Dollar boosts gold and metals; investors rotate into CHF, AUD and NZD.
Swiss franc outperforms on safe-haven demand amid global volatility concerns.
Rising Australian inflation strengthens AUD and raises interest rate hike expectations.

#311
Jan 29, 2026 4:32am Jan 29, 2026 4:32am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 29th January 2026.

US Dollar Slides on Shutdown Fears Despite Fed Pause.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...serve-Building
The Federal Reserve chose not to adjust interest rates and gave no indication of a rate cut for March. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chairman told journalists that he believes the central bank will remain fully independent. The Federal Reserve’s moves can potentially support the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the US Dollar continues to decline.

After the US Dollar Index retraced to 96.60, the currency fell by 0.80%, particularly after the Fed’s press conference. Why are investors continuing to short the US Dollar?

The US Dollar Index
Even though the US Dollar is declining on Thursday and has come under pressure since the Fed’s press conference, it is not falling to a new low. The price has remained above its recent lows despite the pressure. The price remains 0.50% higher than yesterday’s low. The US Dollar Index is increasing as we edge closer to the European session open. However, the index must rise above 96.12 in order to start to obtain clear potential buy signals.

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HFM - US Dollar Index 12-Hour Chart

The worst performing currencies of the day so far are the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The best performing currencies are again the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

The US Dollar’s decline is not necessarily due to the Federal Reserve or monetary policy. Investors are shorting the US Dollar as they look to distance themselves from geopolitical tensions and a potential US shutdown. In addition, investors are negatively reacting to the US coordinating with the Japanese government regarding boosting the Japanese Yen. Investors tend to negatively view interventions into the currency market.

A Possible US Shutdown?
The current US budget is due to expire on 30 January. US President Donald Trump and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer are reportedly negotiating on the new budget.

To avert a shutdown, the US administration is looking to separate the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from a larger spending package. However, the Democrats are likely to add reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This could potentially be a key sticking point.

Many Democrats propose mandatory body cameras for agents, restrictions on mask use, tighter use-of-force standards, and independent oversight of alleged abuses. These measures are driven by recent controversies involving immigration agents and have emerged as the central obstacle in the negotiations.

According to analysts, there is a 70% chance of a US shutdown. A US shutdown could potentially pressure the US Dollar and sentiment further.

The Federal Reserve
The key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s press conference from Wednesday evening are comments on the economy and future rate adjustments. The Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, advised economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and the employment sector shows signs of stabilising.

However, Mr Powell also advises inflation remains above its target and does not show signs of stabilizing below 2.5%. As a result, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates easily according to the Chairman.

The Federal Open Market Committee is largely supporting a pause, with only two members voting for an interest rate cut. In addition, Powell indicated that it’s unlikely the next policy move will be a rate increase.

Trump and The US Dollar
Earlier, US President Donald Trump commented on movements in the US Dollar, saying he was unconcerned about the sharp decline that has pushed the currency back to four-year lows. He added that he currently prefers to let the market determine a ‘fair value’ for the Dollar.

Investors interpreted this stance as a sign of continued market-driven pricing, but it also heightened uncertainty, as the absence of verbal or direct support for the currency leaves it more sensitive to economic data, central bank decisions, and foreign policy developments.

Key Takeaways:

The Federal Reserve held rates steady, signalled no March cut, and emphasised independence, but the US Dollar continues to weaken.
The Dollar’s decline is driven more by geopolitical risks, shutdown fears, and investor positioning than by Fed policy.
A potential US government shutdown, with negotiations stalled over DHS and ICE reforms, is adding downside pressure to sentiment.
President Trump’s hands-off stance on the Dollar has increased uncertainty, making the currency more sensitive to data and policy developments.

#312
Jan 30, 2026 6:41am Jan 30, 2026 6:41am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 30th January 2026.

Markets on Edge as Kevin Warsh Emerges as Fed Chair Frontrunner.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_2JcDz5m
Gold and stocks decline as markets prepare for the US President, Donald Trump, to announce the new Federal Reserve chairman. Markets were previously expecting the President to announce the new chairman towards the end of next week. However, Trump shocked markets by announcing last night that he will announce the new Chairman this morning.

Since this announcement, the US stock market was quick to decline, as did Gold. A consequence of the shock announcement was a drop in the market’s risk appetite. This was the main reason for the stock market’s decline. However, why is the US Dollar increasing in value and Gold declining?

Kevin Warsh
Analysts were expecting President Trump to nominate an ultra-dovish economist to head the Federal Reserve for the next four years. The market was not expecting any rate cuts from the Fed in the upcoming months. However, with the appointment of a new dovish chairman, investors were pricing in frequent cuts in the second half of the year.

The US President has said that he will confirm his nomination for the Federal Reserve chairman this afternoon. Many members of his party have said they believe it's better to wait for the announcement, but Trump does not seem willing. Yesterday afternoon, former Fed member, Kevin Warsh, was seen meeting at the White House. Political analysts and journalists believe Mr Warsh will be the President’s nominee.

According to Bloomberg, there is a 90% chance of Kevin Warsh being the Fed’s new chairman. Though many traders may be asking, why is this development prompting a stock market decline and weakness in Gold.

Markets expected a banker or economist with a traditionally dovish stance, but Kevin Warsh does not fit that profile. In the past, Warsh has established himself as a clear inflation hawk and has criticised the Federal Reserve for failing to bring inflation back to target. This was particularly the case under the Biden administration, where inflation rose to extreme highs.

In addition to this, the potential nominee is also known not to be a supporter of using quantitative easing, which is known to support the stock market. For this reason, markets do not see him as a clear dovish banker. Over the past few months, his tone has somewhat changed and at times has made dovish comments. However, judging by the market moves, investors have not forgotten his past.

Tensions Amongst Republicans
Tom Tillis will not approve the nominee unless the US drops legal proceedings against Federal Reserve members. Trump is reportedly looking for a nominee who would reassure markets while also supporting his push for faster and deeper rate cuts. However, if his nomination does not get the backing required, uncertainties can create a lower risk appetite within the market.

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HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

Market Trends
Warsh has recently moved closer to the president’s stance, publicly advocating for lower interest rates despite his long-held reputation as an inflation hawk.

Currently, markets are pricing in a more hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve or at least backtracking on previous projections. This can be seen in the price action of Gold, the US Dollar and Indices. Gold has fallen by 8.50% since the opening of the US session on Thursday. The stock market has also fallen with the S&P 500 trading almost 1.00% lower on Friday and all other indices also trading lower.

The US Dollar started the day with a bullish price gap measuring 0.30%, but has remained more or less stable since the open. Volatility is likely to continue as investors await the confirmation of Trump’s nominee. Traders also await the release of another key announcement, the US Producer Price Index.

Key Takeaways:

The surprise timing of the Fed chair announcement triggered risk-off sentiment, pressuring stocks and Gold.
Markets fear a Kevin Warsh nomination due to his inflation-hawk stance and QE skepticism. Markets question whether Mr Warsh is indeed dovish.
Hawkish repricing lifted the US Dollar while gold dropped sharply, down 8.5%.
Political uncertainty and PPI data keep volatility elevated across equities, FX, and commodities.

#313
Feb 3, 2026 6:35am Feb 3, 2026 6:35am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 2nd February 2026.

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge as Dollar Rebounds | Market Briefing.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ion-3_featured
Key Takeaways

Gold and silver prices suffered historic losses as speculative momentum unwound
The US dollar staged a sharp rebound, catching bearish positioning off guard
Global equities slid amid concerns over Fed independence and AI-driven valuations
European data, particularly from Germany, continues to show consumer resilience
FX and commodities volatility is now outpacing equities, signalling regime change

Precious Metals: A Speculative Unwind, Not an Economic Shock
The sharp decline in gold and silver prices may look dramatic on price charts, but its broader economic significance remains limited. While some market narratives attempt to frame the sell-off as a reaction to shifting fundamentals, the evidence suggests something far more straightforward: the exhaustion of a fear-driven, momentum-heavy rally.

Gold and silver had surged at breakneck speed over a short period, leaving little time for meaningful wealth effects to materialise across the real economy. As a result, the correction arguably represents a healthy realignment toward prices more consistent with underlying economic conditions, reducing the risk of capital misallocation.

Gold extended losses after suffering its biggest plunge in more than a decade on Friday. Spot prices dropped as much as 10% on Monday and now sit nearly 20% below recent all-time highs. Silver fared even worse, slumping as much as 16% on Monday after registering its steepest intraday loss on record late last week. Year-to-date gains in silver were effectively erased in a matter of sessions.

Once pressure began to build, the move fed on itself. As Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted, multiple factors quickly added fuel to the fire, leaving markets asking not why the sell-off happened, but what comes next.

Currency Markets: Dollar Rebound Shakes Popular Trades
The sharp correction in precious metals sent shockwaves across FX markets, triggering a broad rebound in the US dollar. The greenback gained roughly 1% across Friday and Monday, marking its strongest short-term recovery since May.

The US dollar strengthened most aggressively against commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone, a logical reaction given their historical sensitivity to metals and energy prices.

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This rebound caught many traders off guard. Short-dollar positioning had become one of the most crowded macro trades towards the end of January, fuelled by concerns over US deficits, political uncertainty and speculation around future Federal Reserve leadership.

However, sentiment shifted sharply following news that Kevin Warsh had been nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. Markets interpreted Warsh as a more hawkish candidate than some alternatives, prompting a reassessment of rate expectations and triggering short-covering in the US dollar.

That said, few strategists believe the US dollar’s path forward will be smooth.

Outlook for the US Dollar: Volatile Weakness Ahead?
Despite the recent rebound, warnings about longer-term US dollar weakness remain widespread. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital recently argued that the US dollar has failed to behave like a traditional haven currency, with political uncertainty and widening fiscal deficits continuing to weigh on sentiment.

‘This is not a volatility event. It is currency devaluation,’ said Ahmad Saidali of Redwood Heritage Group, referring to the US dollar’s decline over the past year.

Major institutions including Goldman Sachs, Manulife Investment Management and Eurizon SLJ Capital continue to forecast a weaker US currency over time, albeit with sharp counter-trend rallies along the way.

Goldman strategists highlighted a key development: FX volatility has surged to levels last seen in April, while equity and rates markets remain comparatively subdued. This divergence suggests currency markets may be the primary transmission channel for ongoing policy uncertainty.

Europe: German Consumers Show Resilience
Away from the volatility, European data offered a rare point of stability. German retail sales for December beat expectations, with prior months revised higher yet again. In fact, retail sales have been revised upward in 11 of the past 12 months.

European consumers continue to benefit from rising real incomes, and unlike some global peers, remain largely insulated from tariff-related price pressures. This consumer resilience has helped sustain trend-like growth across parts of the euro area, providing a counterbalance to external shocks.

Equity Markets: AI Jitters and Fed Independence Concerns
Global equities moved sharply lower as February trading got underway. US equity futures declined, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures falling over 1%, while Asian markets recorded steep losses. South Korea’s Kospi briefly halted trading amid extreme volatility before closing more than 5% lower. Tech heavyweights, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, posted heavy losses as concerns grew over stretched AI-related valuations.

The selloff reflects growing unease over two key themes:

The sustainability of the AI-driven equity rally
The potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence under political pressure

Markets are increasingly sensitive to speculation that political influence could shape future monetary policy decisions, particularly if rate cuts are pushed aggressively despite inflation risks.

Commodities: Oil Prices Slide as Geopolitical Fears Ease
Oil prices also moved sharply lower. US crude fell below $63 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped to near $66. The decline followed comments suggesting renewed diplomatic engagement with Iran, easing fears of immediate supply disruptions in the Middle East.

As with metals, the move reflects a reduction in geopolitical risk premium rather than a deterioration in physical demand.

What This Means for Traders and Investors
This market environment is not defined by a single crisis, but by rapid repricing across asset classes:

Precious metals are correcting from speculative extremes
FX volatility is rising faster than equity volatility
The dollar remains structurally pressured but tactically unstable
Equities are vulnerable to narrative shifts, particularly around AI and central banks

For traders, this backdrop favours flexibility, disciplined risk management and cross-market awareness. For investors, it reinforces the importance of understanding where price moves are driven by fundamentals, and where they are driven by positioning and sentiment.

As volatility migrates from equities to currencies and commodities, markets are signalling that the next phase will be less about momentum and more about policy credibility, valuation discipline and macro resilience.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#314
Feb 4, 2026 1:14pm Feb 4, 2026 1:14pm

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 3rd February 2026.

2026 Market Highlights: AUD Leads, Silver Corrects, NASDAQ Gains on Trade.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...00x628_o5yQOrE
The years 2024 and 2025 were great year-on-year performances for the global stock markets and metals. In 2026, the trend for metals continues even though the market has seen a significant dip over the past few days. The stock market has also had its mixed volatility but is in line with traditional levels from the past decade. However, the currency market has seen higher volatility than previous years.

The Australian Dollar - 2026’s Best Performing Currency
The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of the year so far. Its volatility levels are also significantly higher than those seen in other bullish trends from previous years. The best performing currency of 2025 was the Euro and Swiss Franc, which rose around 13%. The Australian Dollar, in a period of five weeks, has already risen more than 5%.

What is driving the price of the Australian Dollar higher?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - AUDUSD 3-Hour Chart

The bullish price movement of the AUD is mainly split into three points. The first being the hawkish monetary policy due to strong economic data. Gold strength is another factor. Another is Australia’s limited exposure to current geopolitical hotspots such as China and Greenland. Finally, the Australian Dollar has been heavily shorted over the past 15 years, and investors are now unwinding those positions.

The latest developments supporting the price of the Australian Dollar are the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The RBA has raised the cash rate from 3.60% to 3.85%, which is the first rate hike of 2026 and the RBA’s first rate adjustment since July 2025.

ANZ’s Adam Boyton said higher inflation, weaker growth and a higher projected rate path make another RBA hike likely. NAB’s Sally Auld added inflation pressures mean this is unlikely to be a one-and-done move, with another 25bp hike expected and risks skewed higher. The RBA said upcoming global and domestic data will guide future decisions.

The Australian Dollar index has risen 0.90% in response to the RBA’s decision to increase rates.

Was Silver Too Expensive?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - Silver 3-Hour Chart

Silver had been the best performing asset across all asset classes of both 2025 and 2026 so far. However, Silver is now stranger to volatility and it is a significantly smaller market than Gold and even other metals. Therefore, even though Silver’s decline, which started on Friday, measured 40%, the figure is not unthinkable considering Gold also fell 21%. Many economists believe that Silver sees double the level of volatility of Gold and sometimes even 2.5 times higher.

Most economists including StoneX saw the price movements as an unwinding of a trend which was ‘vastly overstretched’.

The main drivers for the sell-off were Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve chairman, large institutions raising capital requirements for Silver futures and many economists advising the price was simply too high.

NASDAQ - Key Earnings Reports
The NASDAQ is witnessing a stronger bullish correction due to recent developments continuing to support higher prices. The NASDAQ trades 0.35% higher on Tuesday and is forming its second bullish daily candlestick.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - Silver 3-Hour Chart

Stocks find support from a new US-India trade and economic agreement, which investors see as strengthening cooperation and reshaping global trade flows. The deal cuts US import duties on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, boosting competitiveness, export-focused profits, and emerging-market stocks. In return, India will increase purchases of US goods by around $500B a year and reduce oil imports from Russia, supporting US industries and reinforcing risk appetite across markets.

A key factor for the stock market this week will be the upcoming employment data for the US as well as significant earnings reports. AMD, which is the NASDAQ’s 13th most influential company, is due to release its earnings report later this evening. The stock so far this year has risen more than 10%. In addition, the stock is trading 1.65% higher during pre-market hours indicating investors are expecting strong earnings.

Alphabet (Google) is also due to announce its quarterly earnings report tomorrow evening. Alphabet has become the second most influential stock for the NASDAQ and is also rising more than 1% during pre-market hours. In 2026 so far, the stock is trading 9.38% higher. Currently, 64% of the most influential stocks are trading higher as the stock market gets ready to open.

Key Takeaways:

RBA rate hikes, strong gold prices, limited geopolitical risk, and short-covering have driven the Australian Dollar to become 2026’s best-performing currency.
Silver has seen extreme volatility with a sharp 40% drop as the market corrects after an overstretched rally and higher capital requirements.
The US-India trade deal, strong earnings expectations, and upcoming US employment data are supporting the NASDAQ and other stocks.
AMD and Alphabet are increasing in value as the release of their quarterly earnings reports edge closer.

#315
Feb 4, 2026 1:19pm Feb 4, 2026 1:19pm

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 4th February 2026.

Market Briefing: Tech Sell-Off, Gold Rebound and Rising Geopolitical Tensions Shake Global Markets.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1aaaf7d7276f0e

Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility as investors navigated political developments in the US and Europe, renewed geopolitical risks, sharp rotations within equities, and extreme price swings in precious metals. While risk appetite has not collapsed, sentiment has clearly shifted toward caution, diversification, and selective positioning.

US Politics and the Federal Reserve: Markets Look Past the Shutdown
US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the latest government shutdown, an event that had little impact on markets. Investors appear increasingly desensitised to US political disruptions, treating them as background noise rather than systemic risks.

More attention was paid to developments surrounding the Federal Reserve. Democrats signalled unified opposition to confirming former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair unless the administration halts its legal actions against the central bank. While expected, this raises the possibility that Jerome Powell could remain as FOMC Chair beyond May. For markets, continuity at the Fed is viewed as supportive, particularly at a time when confidence in institutional independence is being closely scrutinised.

Europe: Fiscal Uncertainty Persists as Inflation Cools
France passed its 2026 budget after the government survived a vote of confidence. Although this avoided immediate political instability, the country’s longer-term fiscal challenges remain unresolved. Markets largely absorbed the news calmly, viewing France’s fiscal position as less destabilising than ongoing US budget concerns.

Across the Eurozone, flash estimates for January consumer price inflation are expected to confirm further disinflation, with headline CPI slowing to around 1.7% year-on-year. Cooling inflation continues to support real income growth, offering a constructive foundation for European economic activity despite political uncertainty.

US Equity Markets: Technology Under Pressure
Wall Street retreated as technology stocks led a broad rotation away from growth. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow Jones slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4%.

Major technology names weighed on sentiment, with Nvidia and Microsoft both declining close to 3%. Investors remain concerned about elevated valuations and whether heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure will translate into sustainable earnings. PayPal plunged more than 20% following weaker-than-expected results, while Pfizer declined despite posting stronger quarterly profits, highlighting the market’s increasingly selective response to earnings.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...P.original.png

Asian Markets: Mixed Performance Amid Tech Weakness
Asian equities were mixed, reflecting the overnight decline in US technology stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.6%, pressured by losses in semiconductor-related stocks such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest. Nintendo shares plunged more than 10% despite strong earnings, as investors questioned whether sales momentum for the Switch 2 console can be maintained.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9%, continuing to set record highs despite weakness in major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4%, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was flat.

Software stocks across Asia came under particular pressure following developments in artificial intelligence that threaten traditional software-as-a-service business models. Indian IT leaders Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys fell sharply, while Australia’s Xero and Japan’s Nomura Research Institute also posted significant losses. These declines were partly offset by gains in financials and industrials, reinforcing the theme of sector rotation rather than broad risk aversion.

Commodities: Gold and Silver Rebound After Historic Sell-Off
Precious metals staged a strong rebound after last week’s sharp collapse. Gold rose nearly 4%, reclaiming levels above $5,000 an ounce, while silver jumped more than 5% following heavy liquidation-driven losses.

The rebound was driven by dip-buying as forced selling eased and the US dollar weakened. Despite extreme volatility, analysts argue the broader macro case for gold remains intact. Safe-haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and central bank diversification continue to support bullion over the medium to long term. Several major banks have reiterated bullish outlooks, even as near-term volatility remains elevated.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...D.original.png

Oil Prices Rise on Renewed Gulf Tensions
Oil prices advanced for a second consecutive session after geopolitical tensions resurfaced in the Gulf. Brent crude traded near $68 per barrel, while WTI moved toward $64, following reports that the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier.

Energy markets remain sensitive to even limited incidents in the region, with analysts warning that miscalculations could lead to rapid escalation. For now, price action reflects a modest geopolitical risk premium rather than supply disruption concerns.

Currencies and Crypto: Yen Weakens, Bitcoin Stabilises
In currency markets, the US dollar was broadly steady. The Japanese yen weakened ahead of Japan’s upcoming election, with investors positioning for potential fiscal stimulus that could increase government debt. The euro edged higher, supported by easing inflation expectations in the Eurozone.

Bitcoin rebounded modestly in Asian trading after falling to a more-than-one-year low during US hours. However, sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that further declines could intensify stress across crypto-exposed companies and leveraged products.

Market Outlook: Volatility Favours Active Traders
The dominant theme across global markets is rotation rather than capitulation. Investors are reassessing technology exposure, rotating into value sectors, and selectively increasing allocations to defensive and safe-haven assets. With geopolitical risks simmering, political uncertainty persisting, and AI-driven disruption accelerating, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the trading environment.

For traders, the current landscape rewards disciplined risk management, flexibility, and close monitoring of cross-asset signals as markets continue to adjust to a rapidly evolving macro backdrop.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#316
Feb 5, 2026 5:35am Feb 5, 2026 5:35am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 5th February 2026.

Big Day for Central Banks as Tech Stocks Slide and Precious Metals Turn Volatile.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...01148640f5629e
Global financial markets are facing renewed pressure as a sharp pullback in technology stocks ripples across regions, while traditionally defensive assets such as gold and silver fail to provide stability. What started as a valuation-driven selloff in US tech has evolved into a broader reassessment of risk, affecting Asian equities, European markets, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

At the centre of the turbulence lies growing scepticism around artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, rising capital expenditures, and the sustainability of recent market gains.

Tech Stocks Under Pressure as AI Valuation Concerns Grow
Asian technology shares extended their losses, with MSCI’s Asia Tech Index falling for the fifth time in six sessions. Major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group declined, while South Korea’s Kospi Index, widely viewed as a proxy for AI-related investment, dropped more than 3%.

The weakness followed a volatile US session where disappointing earnings reactions from Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reignited concerns that AI expectations may be running ahead of near-term profitability. Even companies that reported stronger-than-expected earnings struggled to support their share prices, a sign that market sentiment toward high-growth tech stocks has shifted.

Semiconductor and Software Stocks Lead the Decline
The selloff has been particularly intense among chipmakers and software companies, as investors question whether massive AI-related spending will translate into sustainable revenue growth. Fears are also emerging that AI innovation could disrupt existing software business models rather than enhance them.

The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst two-day decline since October, breaking below its 100-day moving average, a technical level often associated with further downside risk. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from recent highs, placing it firmly in bear-market territory.

Market Rotation Signals Caution, Not Capitulation
Despite the speed of the selloff, market participants are increasingly viewing the move as a sector rotation rather than a systemic panic. With the US economy showing resilience, investors are reallocating capital toward defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and select industrial names.

This rotation has led to significant value destruction within the technology sector. In just two days, hundreds of billions of dollars were erased from the market capitalisation of companies across the AI ecosystem, particularly among US-listed software firms.

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge Amid Position Unwinding
In a surprising development, precious metals, often seen as safe-haven assets, have come under intense selling pressure.

Silver Suffers Historic Selloff
Silver prices collapsed by as much as 17%, marking one of the sharpest drops on record. After surging to multi-year highs on speculative inflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of lower US interest rates, the metal has retreated more than one-third from its recent peak.

Thin liquidity, leveraged positioning, and aggressive profit-taking amplified the move, creating a feedback loop that weighed heavily on broader market sentiment.

Gold Prices Follow Lower
Gold prices also fell sharply, posting their largest decline since 2013 before stabilising. Although longer-term fundamentals remain intact, the abrupt pullback underscores how quickly crowded trades can unwind when sentiment shifts.

Base metals such as copper also weakened, pressured by rising inventories and slowing global growth expectations.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...0.original.png

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Slide as Risk Appetite Fades
Bitcoin extended its losses, briefly drifting toward the $70,000 level as global risk appetite deteriorated and the US dollar strengthened. Despite its reputation as an alternative asset, Bitcoin continues to trade in line with broader liquidity conditions, particularly during periods of heightened volatility.

Currency Markets Focus on Central Banks and Political Risk
In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar gained modestly, pushing the euro and British pound slightly lower ahead of interest-rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders remain sensitive to forward guidance.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8.original.png

Japanese Yen Nears Intervention Levels
The Japanese yen has weakened for several consecutive sessions, approaching levels that previously triggered official intervention. Political developments are adding to the pressure, with markets anticipating that a strong election outcome for Japan’s ruling party could enable more expansionary fiscal policies, a combination that may further weigh on the currency.

Oil Prices Ease as Geopolitical Tensions Cool
Crude oil prices declined after Iran confirmed it would engage in negotiations with the United States, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, ongoing dialogue between US and Chinese leaders has kept trade relations and geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist
The dominant theme across global markets is reassessment. After months of momentum-driven gains, particularly in AI-related assets, investors are now scrutinising valuations, earnings sustainability, and balance-sheet strength more carefully.

While long-term structural trends such as artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and automation remain intact, recent price action serves as a reminder that even the strongest narratives are vulnerable to corrections.

As markets navigate earnings season, central bank policy signals, and political developments, volatility is likely to remain elevated, with diversification and risk management taking centre stage once again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#317
Feb 9, 2026 3:40am Feb 9, 2026 3:40am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 09th February 2026.

Japan Sees Record-Breaking Election Victory.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_DLxG792

Japan’s political developments are evolving quickly and are having a direct impact on financial markets. The NIKKEI 225 rose to all-time highs and has already risen more than 16% in 2026 alone. In addition to this, the Japanese Yen also rises 0.80% after the market open.

Japan’s snap elections have come to a halt with the Liberal Democratic Party coming out as the winner. The Prime Minister's party won more than two-thirds of the lower house, giving her a stronger mandate to push through her policies.

Sanae Takaichi’s Historic Victory
On Sunday, the LDP won 316 of 465 lower-house seats on its own, giving it more than a two-thirds supermajority. The LDP, with its coalition partner, will now control over 350 seats (75% of the house). That result is the largest single-party majority since the LDP’s founding in 1955 and the most seats ever won by any party in postwar Japanese elections.

Analysts were expecting Mrs Takaichi’s party to easily win the elections due to high approval ratings. The Prime Minister's high approval ratings were the main reason behind the snap elections. The victory indicates the public’s support for more growth-oriented economic policies.

Why is the NIKKEI 225 The Best Performing Index?
The NIKKEI 225 is 2026’s best-performing index, rising 16% this year so far. The NIKKEI 255 in the past 12-months has risen 46%, 33% higher than the second-best-performing index. The figures can easily indicate the strength of the index and its trend.

Investors are increasing their exposure to the NIKKEI 225 as inflation returns to Japan for the first time in decades. The lack of inflation was one of the key reasons for investors limiting their exposure to the Japanese markets.

However, the latest and strongest price driver is the elections and the Prime Minister's victory. Japan’s Prime Minister is a clear supporter of an expansionary policy and strong ties with the US. She campaigned on and is expected to pursue policies that emphasise government spending to stimulate economic growth, including fiscal measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and strengthening long-term growth prospects.

NIKKEI 225 - Technical Analysis
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - NIKKEI 225 1-Hour Chart

The price of the NIKKEI 225 opened on a bullish price gap measuring 1.98% and then rose a further 1.75%. However, the price soon after came under pressure and fell back to Friday’s closing price. Considering the strong overbought indications from the RSI and MACD, the selloff was not a surprise.

Nonetheless, the buy signal remains relatively strong despite the retracement forming. This is also partially due to the strong bullish price movement from Friday. The NIKKEI 225 rose more than 5% on Friday alone.

On the 1-hour chart, price action continues to show bullish indications, with the price holding above previous highs. The recent decline appears consistent with earlier temporary pullbacks rather than a trend reversal. The price also remains firmly above key Moving Averages and on the positive side of the RSI and MACD.

However, the price movements on smaller timeframes seem less positive as the price retraces. If the price returns above 56,499.3 and thereby crosses the 200-bar SMA, the buy signals potentially may return.

The Japanese Yen
The best performing currency of the day is the Japanese Yen due to the results of the elections. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and the British Pound. The Japanese Yen is increasing in value as sentiment towards the currency partially improves. Though another key reason for this is investors' expectations of more inflation due to any upcoming expansionary policy amendments.

Investors are hoping that the policy and higher inflation will prompt the Bank of Japan to continue increasing interest rates throughout the year. However, regardless of the JPY’s bullish reaction to the elections, technical analysis indicates a bumpy ride as the price struggles to maintain momentum.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:

Historic LDP win gives PM Takaichi a strong mandate for growth-focused policies.
NIKKEI 225 hits all-time highs, up 16% in 2026 on political and inflation tailwinds.
Technical signals remain bullish, with recent pullbacks seen as temporary retracements.
Japanese yen strengthens on improved sentiment and expectations of higher inflation.

#318
Feb 10, 2026 7:32am Feb 10, 2026 7:32am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 10th February 2026.

S&P 500 Rebounds as AI Stocks Lead Gains Ahead of Key US Economic Data.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...A-FED_Featured

The US stock market witnesses a second consecutive day of significant gains as market sentiment improves. The S&P 500 earlier in the month fell by more than 4%, but has been regaining bullish momentum. The index has now formed a 90% correction.

The upward price movement is largely due to sentiment towards technology companies and AI improvements. AI-related companies are mainly driving the bullish momentum. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Broadcom are the main drivers of the trend. Today, the US will release its latest Retail Sales figure, which will trigger some volatility for the stock market. However, the price in the medium-term will largely depend on the upcoming NFP data and US Inflation.

US Jobs and Inflation Data
The S&P 500 bullish trend is strongly connected to the upcoming US data, as it is likely to indicate how the Federal Reserve will set its path for interest rates. Buyers will ideally be looking for the inflation rate to decline and for employment to remain somewhat stable. Stronger employment data would allow more leeway for the Federal Reserve to make no adjustments to interest rates.

Analysts are expecting the Non-Farm Employment Change to add 66,000, similar to the previous months. The US Unemployment Rateis also likely to remain at 4.4%. Analysts project the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest in 8-months.

Currently, there is only a 17% chance of an interest rate cut in March according to the Fedwatch Tool. However, the decline in inflation can prompt this statistic to move in favour of the stock market. If indeed the statistics do read as per expectations, the S&P 500 may see further bullish momentum.

Another key release will also come from company earnings. Cisco and McDonald’s are due to announce their quarterly earnings report tomorrow. In 2026, Cisco stocks have risen 14% while McDonald's has risen 7%. The two companies make up almost 1% of the total S&P 500.

Risks To The Stock Market
Goldman Sachs’ closely watched “Panic Index” has surged to near so-called “max fear” levels, underscoring a sharp rise in investor anxiety across US equity markets. The spike reflects growing concern that the recent bout of volatility may not be over, and that a deeper sell-off could be triggered if key technical thresholds give way.

According to Goldman’s analysis, positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that as much as $33 billion in equity selling could be unleashed if the S&P 500 breaks below critical support levels that many systematic and momentum-based strategies rely on.

However, other indicators related to risk do not support this outlook. The VIX Index, another fear index, is trading slightly higher this morning; however, its weekly performance indicates a positive stock market. For 2026, the VIX Index has traded higher, which is concerning, but if the index continues to fall like the past week, the fear factor will decline.

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

The price action and waves within the S&P 500 are following the traditional bullish trend pattern. Price swings continue to form higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes, such as the 15-Minute chart.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA, which indicates a bullish sentiment. The price also remains on the positive side of the MACD, but not above the signal line. However, if the price rises above $6,971, the bars within the MACD are likely to cross above the signal line. As a result, bullish signals are likely to strengthen.

If bearish momentum gains and the price falls below $6955, bullish sentiment and technical indicators will likely fade.

Key Takeaways:

S&P 500 rebounds after a 4% pullback, regaining bullish momentum.
AI and big tech lead gains, driven by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
Key US data ahead (Retail Sales, NFP, Inflation) will steer market direction.
Rate-cut odds remain low, but falling inflation could boost equities.
Risk signals are mixed, with panic indicators elevated but technicals still bullish.

#319
Feb 11, 2026 4:12am Feb 11, 2026 4:12am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 11th February 2026.

Gold Breaks from Its Traditional Dollar Correlation?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Gold_Featured

The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee and heavy profit-taking have driven Gold down by 21%. Though the asset has recently regained 58% of its lost value. Gold’s outlook will now heavily depend on today’s employment data and Friday’s inflation rate.

The price movement of Gold has been somewhat static, forming range-bound conditions but with a slight bullish bias. However, when also analysing the price of the US Dollar, the correlation does not follow its traditional path. The USD has come under immense pressure over the past week, but Gold’s upward trend has been less volatile.

However, traders should note that correlations have weakened temporarily in the past but later showed a delayed response.

The US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is trading lower on Wednesday and has also fallen in value over the previous three trading days. The currency has been performing relatively well towards the end of January and the first week of February. This is due to investors expecting a hawkish Federal Reserve and no imminent rate cut.

However, analysts expect inflation to decline to 2.5%, an 8-month low and fairly close to the Fed’s target. As a result, the Federal Reserve may consider a small adjustment within March, which is not currently priced into the market.

Yesterday, Stephen Miran, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, said that the Republican administration’s trade policy has had only a limited impact on the US economy. He explained that most of the costs from higher tariffs and taxes have been absorbed by foreign companies. He also added that the effect on US household spending has been small.

Analysts see his comments as a sign that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This could give the Federal Reserve room to adjust monetary policy if needed, while still maintaining financial stability.

Meanwhile, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said that job growth may slow in the coming months. He pointed to slower growth in the labour force, higher productivity, and fewer migrant workers entering the country as factors that could reduce overall employment growth.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day and of the past week.

XAUUSD - Economic Data and Dollar Weakness Supports Gold
The weakening US Dollar is one of the main factors that could push gold prices higher. However, even though Gold prices remain somewhat stable and elevated, the price is not forming a bullish trend. Traditionally, due to the correlation between the USD and Gold, Gold would normally be at least 9%; however, the increase is barely maintaining a rise of 5%.

Data released the day before showed a sharp slowdown in retail sales, falling from 3.3% to 2.4% year-over-year and from 0.6% to 0.0% month-over-month, while investors had expected 0.4% growth. Excluding vehicle sales, the figure also dropped to 0.0% MoM, confirming that November’s increase was only a short-term holiday boost.

At the same time, consumers are raising concerns about rising prices and acting more cautiously amid a tense labour market. Still, the broader environment remains moderately supportive of industrial production, investment, and business spending, helping sustain the overall economic recovery after recent short-term shocks.

The main driver would be today's NFP Employment Change and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (inflation data). Traders speculating upward price movement would ideally be hoping for the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1% and for inflation to fall to 2.4%, not 2.5%.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.

Geopolitical Tensions To Return?
Gold is also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, where talks between Iran, Israel, and the United States have failed. The US continues to demand a full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs while keeping sanctions in place.

As a result, investors are increasing gold holdings, and central banks are boosting physical gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand hit a record 863 tons last year and remains strong. China’s central bank is also increasing gold reserves as it seeks to reduce reliance on the US Dollar.
XAUUSD - Technical Analysis
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HFM - XAUUSD 10-Minute Chart

Over the past 24 hours, gold has formed a range-bound price pattern and is showing slightly more bullish than bearish momentum. The price continues to remain above the Moving Averages and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. The MACD and other Oscillators also remain on the positive side despite the lack of bullish price movement.

Today, the price is trading upwards with higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $5,038.85, the short-term bullish signals will fade.

Key Takeaways:

Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours.
The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation.
Upcoming economic data is key, with today’s NFP and Friday’s inflation report likely to determine gold’s next major move.
Geopolitical tensions and central bank demand support gold, with record global purchases and continued buying from China.

#320
Feb 12, 2026 4:16am Feb 12, 2026 4:16am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 12th February 2026.

Strong NFP Data Surprises Markets, Lifts The US Dollar.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e=nfp_featured

The latest US employment data came as a shock to market participants. Price action during and after the announcement shows that investors are unsure how to price in the new figures. This is why most assets saw a strong impulse wave, succeeded by a full correction. The only asset which saw a clear direction was the US Dollar.
Strong Economic Data Boosts US Sentiment
Analysts were previously expecting January’s employment data to be similar to the previous months. Over the past six months, the US economy, on average, has added 40,000 employed individuals on a monthly basis.

Conversely, the employment data read significantly stronger than in previous months and the current projections. The Non-Farm Payroll Change read +130,000, double previous expectations. The NFP Change is the highest reading since July 2025. The Average Hourly Earnings also rose 0.4%, higher than the previous month, where earnings only rose 0.1%. Lastly, the US Employment Rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%.

As a result, the US employment sector remains resilient and even shows some signs of expansion. This, in turn, supports the view of the majority of market participants that the US Federal Reserve will continue the pause in the “dovish” cycle and adjust the cost of borrowing by -25 basis points only once in 2026. Thus, the probability of the indicator remaining in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at the March 18th meeting is now 94%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. Previously, the possibility of a pause was 79%.

According to the former senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tim Mahedy told journalists, “It absolutely complicates the argument for lower rates”. “The January data were really strong”.

The US Dollar
The US Dollar was one of the only assets which saw momentum remain in favour of the original impulse wave. During the Asian session and the first half of the European session, the US Dollar Index was weakening. After the positive NFP results, the currency rose 0.55%. After the original spike, the currency had seen retracements and volatility. However, the index 0.12% higher than the open price and 0.45% higher than the day’s low.

On Thursday, the price of the index continues to trade higher. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day alongside the New Zealand Dollar. The currency is likely to continue obtaining potential support from the employment data. However, this afternoon’s Weekly Unemployment Claims will renew volatility levels. If the weekly claims are lower than expectations, the Dollar potentially may rise again.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart
S&P 500
The stock market at first saw a surge in buyers after the announcement of stronger employment data. This spike is most likely due to the sentiment increasing towards the US economy and its continuing economic expansion despite tariffs and new policies. However, the price was quick to correct downward and ended the day lower by 0.06%.

The stock market continues to struggle to break through the resistance level which has formed over the past week. For example, at $6,988 for the S&P 500 and $25,367 for the NASDAQ. A key factor which traders may be waiting for in order to obtain confirmation before trading is tomorrow’s CPI release. Analysts are expecting the US inflation rate to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%.

If inflation does not decline, sentiment towards the stock market may fall as the Fed will likely take a hawkish stance past March. However, as the price of the S&P 500 moves sideways, the price continues to remain above most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. Though the price is close to obtaining a bearish signal from the MACD index. The next trend will primarily depend on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - USA500 15-Minute Chart
Key Takeaways:

US jobs data strongly beat expectations, with NFP at +130K, higher wages, and lower unemployment, signalling a resilient labour market.
Fed rate cut expectations declined, with markets now pricing a 94% probability of a pause in March and only one 25bps cut in 2026.
The US Dollar strengthened clearly, gaining momentum after the data and outperforming most major currencies.
Stocks struggled despite strong data, with the S&P 500 facing resistance as investors await tomorrow’s CPI release for direction.

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