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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #4,121
  • Aug 24, 2007 1:47am Aug 24, 2007 1:47am
At the risk of sounding like an idiot, here's my dilemma. I got in long at 116.11 and my broker's margining system seems broken at the moment; they have been showing the pair's market value at 116.145, thereby no liquidation has occurred (it would have if it were working). Now, I normally would have gotten out 20 pips ago, but keeping carry trade in mind and today's earlier levels - should I just ride it out so long as I have the "free money", or is there no chance of gaining from this position today?
  • #4,122
  • Aug 24, 2007 1:59am Aug 24, 2007 1:59am
Quoting Subdude
At the risk of sounding like an idiot, here's my dilemma. I got in long at 116.11 and my broker's margining system seems broken at the moment; they have been showing the pair's market value at 116.145, thereby no liquidation has occurred (it would have if it were working). Now, I normally would have gotten out 20 pips ago, but keeping carry trade in mind and today's earlier levels - should I just ride it out so long as I have the "free money", or is there no chance of gaining from this position today?
Wouldn't they catch the error eventually? Also, have you tried logging out and then logging back in??? It might be your PC... If you do that and it's still the same hold the position it's going back up
  • #4,123
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:00am Aug 24, 2007 2:00am
Quoting trader07
Wouldn't they catch the error eventually? Also, have you tried logging out and then logging back in??? It might be your PC... If you do that and it's still the same hold the position it's going back up
Dude... Why did you go long anyway? It's been in a down trend for hours... Oh well at least you system has a glitch...
  • #4,124
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:02am Aug 24, 2007 2:02am
Europe is buying.
  • #4,125
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:07am Aug 24, 2007 2:07am
Quoting trader07
Wouldn't they catch the error eventually? Also, have you tried logging out and then logging back in??? It might be your PC... If you do that and it's still the same hold the position it's going back up
They send an email when they liquidate you - that hasn't happened yet, so I am assuming the position is still there.

Incidentally, it looks like the pair is about to break the downtrend. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
  • #4,126
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:16am Aug 24, 2007 2:16am
Quoting G-Man
I've been short since 115.95 and adding on the way down according to my other indicators.

I mention 115.73 as it is a 50% level and there may be some retracement, but I think as far as Dove looks at it he only refers to them more after the target has been reached. i.e. price goes down to S1 then retraces, the halfway point back to the pivot could be a good target.

G-Man
just enter short at 115.75 with target 115.4
  • #4,127
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:24am Aug 24, 2007 2:24am
Quoting Subdude
They send an email when they liquidate you - that hasn't happened yet, so I am assuming the position is still there.

Incidentally, it looks like the pair is about to break the downtrend. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
Hope is not a trading strategy you want to employ, trust me. I would take this minor retrace as a chance to get out. Also, you should not be using your broker's margin call as a stop order..
  • #4,128
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:27am Aug 24, 2007 2:27am
I'm showing that price bounced perfectly off the 50% fib (115.50) between the daily and weekly pivot.
  • #4,129
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:33am Aug 24, 2007 2:33am
Quoting southernmind
I'm showing that price bounced perfectly off the 50% fib (115.50) between the daily and weekly pivot.
Yeah, trend has changed in my opinion.

Looking for longs at this point. Closed shorts for +20 +14 and stopped out at +5.

30 min chart showing very bullish candle pattern.

G-Man
  • #4,130
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:34am Aug 24, 2007 2:34am
First target for any up move daily pivot at 116.20 (ish).

G-Man

edit: Currently testing the previous breakout level of 116.04.
  • #4,131
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:37am Aug 24, 2007 2:37am
Quoting southernmind
I'm showing that price bounced perfectly off the 50% fib (115.50) between the daily and weekly pivot.
Did you get in?
  • #4,132
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:37am Aug 24, 2007 2:37am
Quoting Trader KGB
Hope is not a trading strategy you want to employ, trust me. I would take this minor retrace as a chance to get out. Also, you should not be using your broker's margin call as a stop order..
Agreed on everything except for this being a minor retrace.
  • #4,133
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:43am Aug 24, 2007 2:43am
Quoting G-Man
Yeah, trend has changed in my opinion.

Looking for longs at this point. Closed shorts for +20 +14 and stopped out at +5.

30 min chart showing very bullish candle pattern.

G-Man
what indicator gave you the idea of the trend changing?

I need help in being able to see this change, cuz I am/was looking for a short of the daily pivot...
  • #4,134
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:50am Aug 24, 2007 2:50am
Hello watermoon
  • #4,135
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:56am Aug 24, 2007 2:56am
Quoting Subdude
At the risk of sounding like an idiot, here's my dilemma. I got in long at 116.11 and my broker's margining system seems broken at the moment; they have been showing the pair's market value at 116.145, thereby no liquidation has occurred (it would have if it were working). Now, I normally would have gotten out 20 pips ago, but keeping carry trade in mind and today's earlier levels - should I just ride it out so long as I have the "free money", or is there no chance of gaining from this position today?
You made it! With profit... Wow!
  • #4,136
  • Aug 24, 2007 2:57am Aug 24, 2007 2:57am
Quoting Subdude
Agreed on everything except for this being a minor retrace.
Got out @ 116.23 - shagadelic, baby, yeah!!!
  • #4,137
  • Aug 24, 2007 3:06am Aug 24, 2007 3:06am
Quoting kreeper_6
what indicator gave you the idea of the trend changing?

I need help in being able to see this change, cuz I am/was looking for a short of the daily pivot...
Personally I think what you use to do this needs to be reviewed on a constant basis to adapt to what the markets are doing and what 'state' they are in.

I have found that a 30 minute 8 period HMA is providing a good indication currently when using Doves ideas.

G-Man
  • #4,138
  • Aug 24, 2007 3:08am Aug 24, 2007 3:08am
Quoting G-Man
Personally I think what you use to do this needs to be reviewed on a constant basis to adapt to what the markets are doing and what 'state' they are in.

I have found that a 30 minute 8 period HMA is providing a good indication currently when using Doves ideas.

G-Man
That would be Hull's MA?

Thanks.
  • #4,139
  • Aug 24, 2007 3:20am Aug 24, 2007 3:20am
Quoting bocanti
just enter short at 115.75 with target 115.4
still holding my short with stop @ 116.43 (1 pip above curr. today high) hopefull this is a good call.
  • #4,140
  • Aug 24, 2007 3:24am Aug 24, 2007 3:24am
Retrace back to the daily pivot and resistance.

As I understand Dove's rules, if we don't break through then we are headed back to S1.

I would guess the 50% rule may coe more into play here.

G-Man
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