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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #681
  • Edited Aug 23, 2007 1:12am Aug 22, 2007 11:23pm | Edited Aug 23, 2007 1:12am
Jacko -- not exactly sure how your cited article "http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...047 4353.html (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...047 4353.html)" supports your view "of the trashing of the Asian economies by the US led World Bank and IMF", but, whatever. Seems to me you're getting a little strident in your beliefs here. This kind of thinking, and more importantly, the resultant trading decion made as a result of that thinking can lead to an unfortunate result. For myself, I'd rather stick to what the charts are telling me rather than what an obviously opinionated mind is telling me.

Not neccessarily agreeing or disagreeing with your assumption, but I certainly wouldn't be making any trading decisions based on it.
  • #682
  • Aug 23, 2007 8:46am Aug 23, 2007 8:46am
Nobody knows where the bottom is.
Regards
  • #683
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:42pm Aug 23, 2007 12:42pm
And time for some more house keeping..
as per this post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1534041&postcount=551

Getting a bit far of field again...
  • #684
  • Aug 23, 2007 4:37pm Aug 23, 2007 4:37pm
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajMi6J3mbTfk&refer=home

Bloomberg news
  • #685
  • Aug 24, 2007 3:27am Aug 24, 2007 3:27am
Quoting lai1579
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajMi6J3mbTfk&refer=home

Bloomberg news
Hi,
I would have felt more confident on the Euro rising, if GS had kept their 3 to 6 month target back ast 1.35

Ian
  • #686
  • Aug 24, 2007 7:44am Aug 24, 2007 7:44am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi,
I would have felt more confident on the Euro rising, if GS had kept their 3 to 6 month target back ast 1.35

Ian

i agree........bad news coming from a FED shareholder.......most strange........unless they've decided to launch the long overdue Great Depression 2.........

Ian, thanks a lot for your PM the other day.......
  • #687
  • Aug 24, 2007 8:09am Aug 24, 2007 8:09am
Trades are working well for now .... the position at 1.3400 is my long-term position.
Nice call jacko .... :-)

http://bp2.blogger.com/_b4aOgPGbeuM/...h/Untitled.jpg http://bp2.blogger.com/_b4aOgPGbeuM/...h/Untitled.jpg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #688
  • Aug 24, 2007 12:35pm Aug 24, 2007 12:35pm
Hi jacko,


I was just pondering....thinking price might go visit 1.3700 or 1.3750, then pull back to 1.3600 or 1.3640.

Was just curious whether you were already eyeing up new "bargain buy" levels once we've moved up a bit and the trailing stops get hit or whether you'll do that when the situation arrives

Just some levels that struck me, wondering whether you're seeing anything at all similiar...

Wishing you a nice weekend,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #689
  • Aug 25, 2007 6:37am Aug 25, 2007 6:37am
Quoting luqmanz
Trades are working well for now .... the position at 1.3400 is my long-term position.
Nice call jacko .... :-)

http://bp2.blogger.com/_b4aOgPGbeuM/...h/Untitled.jpg http://bp2.blogger.com/_b4aOgPGbeuM/...h/Untitled.jpg

you mean you intend to hold on till at least 1.3850 ?

i got in at 1.3450 and wondering should i offload soon and then buy again ?
  • #690
  • Aug 25, 2007 9:10am Aug 25, 2007 9:10am
Quoting findcount
you mean you intend to hold on till at least 1.3850 ?

i got in at 1.3450 and wondering should i offload soon and then buy again ?
Not a recommendation at all, but the current price (1.3670) is at the level of the peak in April, as well as right at the monthly pivot. Of course, price will do one of two things--reverse at this pivotal zone eventually, or go right on through. Either way, I'd expect some consolidation to take place first. Why not take some profit here, and move your stops up? However, if you feel very strongly that the all-time high will be tested again soon, then by all means hold on! :-)
  • #691
  • Aug 25, 2007 10:53am Aug 25, 2007 10:53am
Quoting findcount
you mean you intend to hold on till at least 1.3850 ?

i got in at 1.3450 and wondering should i offload soon and then buy again ?
I use trailing stops. If the stop got hit, I will buy at lower price. If the price went up straight to 4000 without hitting my stop loss, who am I to complain? lol .....
  • #692
  • Aug 25, 2007 1:44pm Aug 25, 2007 1:44pm
Hi Jacko,
I was wondering if I would be correct in thinking that the 1.3600 area is the next likely area of support?

It is the 50% retracement of the move from 1.3851 on 7/24 to 1.3359 on 8/16. It is also a round number (and the weekly pivot point).

It also seems to be an area that served as resistance in late April and early July and and area of support in end of July and early August.

Am I on track here or am I missing something?
Thanks,
Camptrader
  • #693
  • Aug 26, 2007 1:51am Aug 26, 2007 1:51am
Quoting camptrader
Hi Jacko,
I was wondering if I would be correct in thinking that the 1.3600 area is the next likely area of support?

It is the 50% retracement of the move from 1.3851 on 7/24 to 1.3359 on 8/16. It is also a round number (and the weekly pivot point).

It also seems to be an area that served as resistance in late April and early July and and area of support in end of July and early August.

Am I on track here or am I missing something?
Thanks,
Hi Camptrader!

I think we should not discuss Basics in this Thread, but maybe I can help a little bit, and Simones deletes this Posts later. You are right that 1.3600 is Resistance and Support from the Past, yes it is also a round Number. I think that 1.3600 is more Support than Resistance for me now, because Price hits 1.3600 and could go back to 1.3600, so I think it will be Support, but we will know it in the next days.

If you measure Fibo Retracement from 7/24 to 8/16 then it is the 61,8% Retracement, BUT IN THE WRONG DRIECTION. If you expect a Downward Move, then it would be right. If you want to measure Fibo Retracements in an Uptrend, then you should take the last Swinglow and go to the LAST Swinghigh.

Hope I could help, and please Simjones delete my Post.

Erkro
  • #694
  • Aug 26, 2007 10:22am Aug 26, 2007 10:22am
Quoting jacko
To everyone,

Even though this is not a live trading thread I will try to outline, in advance, what I trade.

This week, I am looking to go long on the euro again.

However, I think that I can buy them cheaper than the current price of 1.3500. (I don't think that we will see a lower low than than 1.3370...but I can see a possible small retracement)

But....I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

But I am a buyer at 1.3450.

Hi,

Well, last week was interesting......

The market drifted down to a low 1.3449 which was one pip below my 1.3450 buy price then proceeded to power upwards to 1.3672 before closing at 1.3666.

Unfortunately, because I am not sure if anyone here (esp. newbies) are using my posts as a basis for trading, I then took a more conservative approach and suggested that it would be better to wait until the market had fallen to around 1.3420. That was not the best advice I have ever given, but since I would not like anyone to lose money because of anything I say or do, I would rather err on the side of caution. (I would definitely rather be out of a market rather than be in a market on the wrong side).

Having said that, I did manage to grab a good positional trade, but not at as low a price as I would have liked. Still, something is better than nothing. It was at a price that was acceptable to me (and my risk factor), but not one that I would have recommended here.


So............., it is just as well that I give these posts for free....because nobody would pay for it.


.
  • #695
  • Aug 26, 2007 10:41am Aug 26, 2007 10:41am
Quoting jacko
This trade died an ignomious death..... RIP 1.3650 trade....but don't cry for this fallen soldier (trade)....he will be resurrected...Hallelujah, brother.....sometime in the future....Hallelujah, brother......that is what the A-H strategy will do for this fallen, but not forgotten soldier....Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!

..................

.

Some of you may remember this trade (see posts 557 and 564 and 575).

In summary, I bought at 1.3650 and was stopped out at 1.3600.

However, Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
the soldier was not dead......Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
he was only temporarily injured.....Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
and, given some serious "anti hedging" medicine, he is back in action at 1.3600......Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!

Since the market is now at 1.3666, I have recouped ALL my losses from this earlier trade and am now in profit (by 16 pips).......and hopefully, in the trend in the right direction.
Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....


.
  • #696
  • Aug 26, 2007 10:53am Aug 26, 2007 10:53am
Quoting jacko
Hi,

Well, last week was interesting......

The market drifted down to a low 1.3449 which was one pip below my 1.3450 buy price then proceeded to power upwards to 1.3672 before closing at 1.3666.

Unfortunately, because I am not sure if anyone here (esp. newbies) are using my posts as a basis for trading, I then took a more conservative approach and suggested that it would be better to wait until the market had fallen to around 1.3420. That was not the best advice I have ever given, but since I would not like anyone to lose money because of anything I say or do, I would rather err on the side of caution. (I would definitely rather be out of a market rather than be in a market on the wrong side).

Having said that, I did manage to grab a good positional trade, but not at as low a price as I would have liked. Still, something is better than nothing. It was at a price that was acceptable to me (and my risk factor), but not one that I would have recommended here.


So............., it is just as well that I give these posts for free....because nobody would pay for it.


.
well, Jacko, no need to regret that you didnt give a good entry advice last week, because I suppose everyone is aware that they should learn how to trade by themselves. I read your view about the euro, and even if it didnt fall to 3359, I managed to enter at 3467 once, and im in again at 1.3610 where I had a AH entry. So far so good. Thanx a lot.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #697
  • Aug 26, 2007 11:07am Aug 26, 2007 11:07am
in the running with gagiul, my anti hedge kicked in at 3610, but when price broke 3680, i moved my stop up to 3660, to lock in 50 pips... covering my 40 pip previous loss, and guaranteeing me 10 pips profit... market closed friday 7 pips away from my stop, but i still see upward potential... will widen the trailing stop if it moves up to 3700, assuming i dont get stopped prior to that.
  • #698
  • Aug 26, 2007 11:08am Aug 26, 2007 11:08am
To everyone,

Even though this is not a live trading thread I will try to outline, in advance, what I trade.

This week, I am ...(surprise,surprise)... looking to go long on the euro again.


However, I currently have two sets of trades, one in the low 1.3500's and one at 1.3600 (A-H trade). Both have the trailing stops at 1.3631 (1.3681- .0050 = 1.3631).

As a result I am heavily invested. But I also believe that we are in the "sweet spot" of this trend. I believe that any downsides are VERY limited and that this week we will see 1.3800+ towards the end of the week.


However, I also think that I may buy them cheaper than the current price of 1.3666. (I don't think that we will see a lower low than than 1.3550...but I can see a possible small retracement)

But....I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

But I am a buyer at 1.3650.


.
  • #699
  • Aug 26, 2007 11:32am Aug 26, 2007 11:32am
Quoting jacko
However, Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
the soldier was not dead......Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
he was only temporarily injured.....Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!....
and, given some serious "anti hedging" medicine, he is back in action at 1.3600......Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!
Jacko cracks me up.
  • #700
  • Aug 26, 2007 2:08pm Aug 26, 2007 2:08pm
Jacko, first I want to say you are helping a lot of people here learn some very good fundamental principles.

I want to apologize for the newbie question but I believe it very much applies to a long term investment strategy such as Jacko's


So to my question: If you have a trailing stop at 50 pips, what happens if the market reopens on a Monday and it is at say 200 or 300 pips below your current position. What happens if your account's margin can not cover the difference? Does the broker just liquidate your acct and your money is gone for good? Or are we suggesting that a long term investor should make sure 300 pips move is less than 2-3% of his acct balance?

Thanks in advance... This is a money management question, but from what I understand that is half the battle.
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