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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #561
  • Aug 13, 2007 1:43pm Aug 13, 2007 1:43pm
Thanks Jacko, Dial,
Much appreciated info.
Colin.
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  • #562
  • Aug 13, 2007 2:12pm Aug 13, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting jacko
Hi cologg,

I have just re-read your post and realised that I hadn't answered your question properly. (Sorry but I was a bit distracted earlier).

Waiting for the retrace to 50% was certainly an option that I could have taken but I was thinking that 1.3650 would hold strong. If 1.3650 does hold strong (and I am not stopped out at 1.3600) then I have made the right decision.

If it blows through 1.3600, then I will have been wwwwwrong and i will then evaluate whether:
1. To go long again at 1.3550 (50% Fib)
2 Or decide if the trend has changed to the short side of the road.

Furthermore, I am a trader. My "business" is to trade. Waiting for the 50% retracement (and not trading until that happens) did not give me as much confidence as I had in trading at 1.3650.
If I am stopped out, then I can only look back and ask myself "Did I do the best trade, given all the information available to me at the time?" At the present time, I don't believe my trade was foolish.
Besides it may turn profitable, even though it is looking rather sick at the moment (29 pips underwater now).
However, this is Forex and it is a volatile market especially given the dramas being played out in the sub-prime markets in the last 48 trading hours.

We have set our game plan...we are now just playing the game out.

.
Hi Jack!

This is my first Post in this Thread.
I read every Post of your Thread and I like your Art of Trading, it is very good. I am also a longer Term Trader and I have 2 Questions. I wanted to ask this Questions some days ago, but now we have the market situation to ask.
I am also Long at 1.3650, and I also thougt that the support at 1.3650 would be strong enough but if not it is also ok, this is trading.

My Questions are:
1. If you buy Long at 1.3650 and the Price goes through 1.3600 and reaches 1.3550 then the normal way would be the AH Strategie, a buy stop at 1.3600 again. But you wrote that you would buy at 1.3550. I also would buy at 1.3550. So you don't use AH pure mechanical. I think it depends on the market situation. Is this right?

2. You said you trade the directon of the weekly trend, and we have the Situation where the weekly and the daily trend change at the same point, if the price closes under 1.3600, we have a 1-2-3 Formation on both Timeframes.

Would you take shorts if you see a trend change only on the daily chart, or should there also be a trendchange on the weekly? What we have if the Price breaks 1.3600 and closes under it.

Once Again thanks a lot for your Strategie and your help.

Regards Erkro
  • #563
  • Aug 13, 2007 9:04pm Aug 13, 2007 9:04pm
Its maybe my first post on this board (will find out in a moment) and I've been reading this thread for the last two days. I like it Jacko ... it looks like a nice addition to my normally frenetic HSI trading (8 trades a day averaging under 6 minutes a trade).

Here's my take on how Jacko might answer (please correct me if wrong):

1. Buying at 3550 would not be the AntiHedge in action; it would be a decision that this is a good buy and would be a new trade. It reflects the view that 3550 is a likely point for the downturn to finish and the trend up to recommence.

2. 123 formations don't seem to be part of Jacko's methodology and, even if they were, the weekly one is not very convincing ... if you apply the 6 year old looking at the weekly chart test (attached) it still looks up to this child.

If I recall correctly Jacko talks about trendline breaks and then retests as part of a convincing trend change.

Quoting erkro
Hi Jack!

This is my first Post in this Thread.
I read every Post of your Thread and I like your Art of Trading, it is very good. I am also a longer Term Trader and I have 2 Questions. I wanted to ask this Questions some days ago, but now we have the market situation to ask.
I am also Long at 1.3650, and I also thougt that the support at 1.3650 would be strong enough but if not it is also ok, this is trading.

My Questions are:
1. If you buy Long at 1.3650 and the Price goes through 1.3600 and reaches 1.3550 then the normal way would be the AH Strategie, a buy stop at 1.3600 again. But you wrote that you would buy at 1.3550. I also would buy at 1.3550. So you don't use AH pure mechanical. I think it depends on the market situation. Is this right?

2. You said you trade the directon of the weekly trend, and we have the Situation where the weekly and the daily trend change at the same point, if the price closes under 1.3600, we have a 1-2-3 Formation on both Timeframes.

Would you take shorts if you see a trend change only on the daily chart, or should there also be a trendchange on the weekly? What we have if the Price breaks 1.3600 and closes under it.

Once Again thanks a lot for your Strategie and your help.

Regards Erkro
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  • #564
  • Aug 13, 2007 9:32pm Aug 13, 2007 9:32pm
Quoting jacko
Hi cologg,

I am in at 1.3650. So I am currently underwater 25 pips. Came close when it dropped to 1.3605. (I thought I was a goner...).

But just letting the trade play itself out.

I am not feeling real confident about the trade but I have been in this situation before and some been have losses but some have turned around and went into profits. I am prepared to let this trade have till 1.3600 then its gone.

.
Market bottomed at 1.3601. Still in there (but there are claw marks on the wall where the market tried to drag me under...LOL). The sun is still shining on me.

Feeling better at current market price of 1.3615 but still have this feeling that this trade is doomed.

I will let it play out.
  • #565
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:40am Aug 14, 2007 2:40am
Quoting kiwi_trader
Its maybe my first post on this board (will find out in a moment) and I've been reading this thread for the last two days. I like it Jacko ... it looks like a nice addition to my normally frenetic HSI trading (8 trades a day averaging under 6 minutes a trade).

Here's my take on how Jacko might answer (please correct me if wrong):

1. Buying at 3550 would not be the AntiHedge in action; it would be a decision that this is a good buy and would be a new trade. It reflects the view that 3550 is a likely point for the downturn to finish and the trend up to recommence.

2. 123 formations don't seem to be part of Jacko's methodology and, even if they were, the weekly one is not very convincing ... if you apply the 6 year old looking at the weekly chart test (attached) it still looks up to this child.

If I recall correctly Jacko talks about trendline breaks and then retests as part of a convincing trend change.
Hi Kiwitrader,

Thanks for your answer. I think I could not really describe what I meant, because English is not my native language.
I read every Post of this thread carefully and I am no newbie, I trade forex for many years, but I could better describe it in German language than in english, but I try it again.

1. I know that an entry at 3550 would not be an AH. An AH Entry would be if you wait that the price goes to 3550 and only then you can set your buy stop at the point where you was stopped out. In this cas 1.3600. This is all ok. I meant that Jacko wrote that he eventually would buy again at 3550 what is the 50% retracement. And you also saw that Jacko does not wait that the price goes 20-30 pips beneath the retracement or the round number like some people in this thread was thinking at first, no he buy's in the moment when the price reaches the retracement or the round number.

I mean, what has priority for Jacko AH or Fibo? I think that the 50% Retracement is more important for him, and also for me, and that I wanted to know from him, because in this case you don't always use AH.

2. I know that Jacko uses Longterm TL Breaks on weekly charts, and that he never wrote about 1-2-3 formations, but he wrote in his post that he is thinking about going short if price goes beneath 1.3600. And because there is no Longterm Break (Short term yes) I asked if he also uses 1-2-3 because in this case we have a 1-2-3 break at daily and weekly at the same time.

I hope I could describe what I wanted to say. In German it would be much easier.

Kiwitrader thanks again that you would help.

Jacko once again many thanks for your Strategie, it is very very good.
And also sorry because I forgot the o in your Name on my first post.

And Simjones please delete my post if it is to long, and does not make sense for other trader.

Erkro
  • #566
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:29am Aug 14, 2007 4:29am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
here's my take.
looking at my charts, i feel we are heading into the lower 1.34's although 1.3550 and 50% fib look good to hold, this pair is due a reset back to it's lower trend line before resuming it's uptrend.

although on my older trading system i would now be shorting, i am being patient and waiting for the break of 1.3550 to see were we go, my charts have been wrong before.

my trade plan is to wait for the lower 1.34's and set my longs from 1.3500 or any round number that is 50pips higher than the lows, which may drop below 1.34 and i can go long at 1.3450.

I also have a question - as the EU rises do you add more longs on the way, the way i see it is as my trades lock in profit, my MM allows more trades.

kind regards

MPP
  • #567
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:01am Aug 14, 2007 6:01am
Please take this with a pinch of salt because I am not an expert, do not trade live yet and am still learning, but would like to hear opinions on my views -

I don't get it.
I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but if the trend is up, and the weekly and monthly still look 'up', why is everyone talking about a reversal.

I know the daily is turning, but how, and why are you all deciding that this is the turning point?
(To me, the daily still looks 'up')

I realise at some point there has to be a reversal and the trend will change, but why now? All it's done so far is retrace to 50%.

Am I being too basic and literal and missing what others are seeing?

Cheers
Colin.
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  • #568
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:06am Aug 14, 2007 6:06am
In saying all of the above, I still have a trend line that meets the 76% fib at 1.3400, (have marked 1.3399 on chart), so I'd imagine this'll be strong resistance?
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  • #569
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:56am Aug 14, 2007 6:56am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting cologg
In saying all of the above, I still have a trend line that meets the 76% fib at 1.3400, (have marked 1.3399 on chart), so I'd imagine this'll be strong resistance?
it's also a good point to look at for going long, the EU is still within it's uptrend, but every trend has high's and low's, high's TP Low's buy some more.

the thing to look for is whether this is a deeper reset or a shallow one i.e 1.3550 or 1.3400 or lower.

we will both get the best responce when one of the more experienced traders comes back later.

regards
MPP
  • #570
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:46am Aug 14, 2007 7:46am
Quoting cologg
In saying all of the above, I still have a trend line that meets the 76% fib at 1.3400, (have marked 1.3399 on chart), so I'd imagine this'll be strong resistance?
support*
  • #571
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:53am Aug 14, 2007 7:53am
Quoting cologg
Please take this with a pinch of salt because I am not an expert, do not trade live yet and am still learning, but would like to hear opinions on my views -

I don't get it.
I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but if the trend is up, and the weekly and monthly still look 'up', why is everyone talking about a reversal.

I know the daily is turning, but how, and why are you all deciding that this is the turning point?
(To me, the daily still looks 'up')

I realise at some point there has to be a reversal and the trend will change, but why now? All it's done so far is retrace to 50%.

Am I being too basic and literal and missing what others are seeing?

Cheers
Colin.
Trust me, I'm not being a jerk here, but you could be the 5 year old. Some of the others here will know what I mean (see one of Jacko's earlier quotes).
  • #572
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:57am Aug 14, 2007 7:57am
cologg.... FYI This quote is a compliment to you.

Quoting Dopey
Trust me, I'm not being a jerk here, but you could be the 5 year old. Some of the others here will know what I mean (see one of Jacko's earlier quotes).
Lou
  • #573
  • Aug 14, 2007 10:07am Aug 14, 2007 10:07am
Quoting superdezign
support*
Ha, Ha - yes, support, agree
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  • #574
  • Aug 14, 2007 10:08am Aug 14, 2007 10:08am
Quoting Lou
cologg.... FYI This quote is a compliment to you.



Lou
I'll definitely take it as a compliment.
My wife thinks my mental age is much lower
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  • #575
  • Aug 14, 2007 10:12am Aug 14, 2007 10:12am
Quoting jacko
Market bottomed at 1.3601. Still in there (but there are claw marks on the wall where the market tried to drag me under...LOL). The sun is still shining on me.

Feeling better at current market price of 1.3615 but still have this feeling that this trade is doomed.

I will let it play out.

This trade died an ignomious death..... RIP 1.3650 trade....but don't cry for this fallen soldier (trade)....he will be resurrected...Hallelujah, brother.....sometime in the future....Hallelujah, brother......that is what the A-H strategy will do for this fallen, but not forgotten soldier....Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!

I am taking a break for a while. Be back in maybe 24 hours

.
  • #576
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:52pm Aug 14, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting jacko
This trade died an ignomious death..... RIP 1.3650 trade....but don't cry for this fallen soldier (trade)....he will be resurrected...Hallelujah, brother.....sometime in the future....Hallelujah, brother......that is what the A-H strategy will do for this fallen, but not forgotten soldier....Hallelujah, brother !!!!!!

I am taking a break for a while. Be back in maybe 24 hours

.
What a spirit!!!!!

I am following GBP/USD and EUR/USD downtrend. Keep changing my buystop entries 50 pips (round numbers) above the lowest price of the pairs to get best buystop entry.

Both the pairs are close to the lower trendline (weekly chart). Reversal is very near if there isn't any breakout downside.
"Those who see Invisible can do Impossible." -Rev. Dadaji
  • #577
  • Aug 15, 2007 2:32am Aug 15, 2007 2:32am
Hi jacko,

I would just like to ask whether you would start looking to revise your opinion at a close below 1.3250 or what your personal "point of downturn" is.
Just curious how you view your charts and whether your fundamental analysis trumps the chart or the other way around (the deficit is still there and so on).

Best regards,

SeekingLight
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #578
  • Aug 15, 2007 2:45am Aug 15, 2007 2:45am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi jacko,

I would just like to ask whether you would start looking to revise your opinion at a close below 1.3250 or what your personal "point of downturn" is.
Just curious how you view your charts and whether your fundamental analysis trumps the chart or the other way around (the deficit is still there and so on).

Best regards,

SeekingLight
I just spoke to him about an hour ago. he is not even looking at the markets. said he was having a brake and clearing his head. he has no trades atm.
  • #579
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:27am Aug 15, 2007 3:27am
if you look at the weekly chart, the trend is still up, so with respect to that timeframe, we're seeing a brutal move down to support given all the fundie factors - credit collapse, liquidity injections by banks, carry trades unwinding etc etc.

so the weeky is up and the daily is down and you can sell it all the way down to support (like i've been doing).
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  • #580
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:47am Aug 15, 2007 5:47am
Hey, where the heck did my post from yesterday go??? It was well thought out and productive and now it's gone!
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
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