Swing & position trading

3 failures into a FVG

Potential swing point into FVG

Stopped out on the 2nd position by a few pips. DeJa vu.
Flat now.
Will look to re-enter long on the appropriate set up.

Inverted FVG stopping price.
Also tried to get back positive for the month.

A difficult week when PD arrays get respected then broken.
Makes that low risk trade a sitting duck.

USD/JPY a good example.


Double top above, double bottom below.
Violated FVG inbetween.

Breaker and 50.0% reversal again.
Seems to be a recurring theme with this pair.

Gold played out as expected from my analysis last week.

Both produced strong moves as expected.
Reaction at previous highs.

Another one that didn't play ball.
Tore straight through my watch area after initially resisting.
Old highs the target now.

Stopped out @ b/e on the 2nd half of this trade.
Sidelined for now.

Range bound since last summer.
Spiked out of the base in September.
And twice out of the top in November.
Spent a lot of time oscillating either side of equilibrium.
This makes for challenging trading.
You never know how far across the range it will travel.
Or go to the extremes.
Currently approaching deep discount area.
Since this is the opposite of EURO/USD and GBP/USD they too are at extremes.

A re-look at the big picture I posted way back.

Extreme of the range.
Blue - breaker
Brown - 2 bar bearish order block
Purple - FVG


Sideways for weeks.
Now half way up a rejection candle.

Premium end of the range after taking out double day highs.


Either we break the range and go much higher or reverse from hereabouts.

An interesting week of price action.
Price went higher than I thought it would.
It still reversed within the zones on the monthly previously identified (post 372) without breaking the parent swing.
Zooming out on the weekly.
Deep into premium territory.
Price has now presented a high probability bearish turtle soup.
Whereby it has raided liquidity above an old high and rebalanced a FVG.
With that in place I will only look to sell rallys until such time as price reaches its main objective.
I would first like to see a retest of the weekly spike high circa 1.1900.
This is where Mondays high and Wednesday and Thursdays lows reside.
Failing that I will sell any rally swing points.

GBP/USD

Short order triggered @ 1.3714

Sold @ the discount end of the balanced price range.

75% of the original position closed @ 1.3545
Remaining 25% still open now with a break even stop.

Long @ 1.3700

Narrow range week.
Down on Monday, sideways for the rest of it.
Slim pickings for a continuation down.

Didn't expect the move down Friday after testing the FVG twice earlier in the week.
Decent rejection though after the fill.

Pure conjecture at the moment.
Heading to extreme premium.
OB, FVG & Breaker Block all overhead.
What I'll be watching for is a sweep of the June 2025 spike high where it failed before and a rejection from the FVG.