Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Quick look at the next possible LOW in SP500

PLEASE NOTE the fun and games that the market does on a 2 Dimensional price chart and HOW it AFFECTS the logic in trader calcs

This chart shows the 175/180 trading day cycle - With cycles you HAVE to calculate the LENGTH, the AMPLITUDE AND probably the most Important aspect the PHASING - the 1st chart below does just that to account for the 3D moves

This chart is not 100% exact, but it is pretty damn good - good enough anyway

The next low comes in DECEMBER'25




This is where it goes wrong on normal price charts

This is the cycle - the vertical lines are the corresponding cycle in the chart above

BUT notice the TIME BARS BETWEEN each cycle - they VARY - this is where it becomes guess work and we don't like guessing in this game/business!

Assuming the current sequence continues, this is the ZONE the static cycle should land within(GREEN and RED vertical lines

This is OK, but its fairly WIDE in TIME and has you second guessing

I appreciate you do not have the cycle software that I do, I just wanted to show you how it looks in the real 2D world we are forced to view price action on

Hopefully you can see why we often get those time counts that vary - my cycle software takes account of part of the 3 Dimensional nature at play, which evens things up a bit better

There's nothing wrong with this chart below - We can as shown place the expected min/max cycle timings on as vertical lines or we could place a timing band type Indicator on the chart

One thing is certain, "IF" the cycle continues, you'll get price declining below the 10 SMA into the cycle low and then above the 10 SMA out of it




So if/when you discover cycles - work out the min and max timing over a number of occurrences, that will give you timing bands to work within/watch for a cycle turn point etc

We don't know what type of price moves will follow, you could have straight up/down, laboured swings or even a tired lacklustre sideways move!

Which is why we need trading methods and plans & rules etc and the crucial stop

This low expectation, "SHOULD" take us UP into the BEAST 666 cycle noted on a previous chart, from where it should get Interesting

Bitcoin has not broken (closed below) the weekly VTL. We have 17 hours for price to move above 104K - if it does that the weekly cycle is still intact.

Some longer term channel analysis for ASX200.
The current move lower is still intact until it breaks the down-sloping VTL forming the trough. This looks like a good point to form that trough based on the aqua channel.
Assuming the trough does form here , you can see that the lower boundary of the white channel needs to stay flat for the next 64 days if it's going to capture the newly formed trough.
The white vertical line in the future shows where price will be in 64 days and the white squiggly line shows the average price that is needed for the lower boundary of the white channel to stay flat.
So based on that likely scenario, we can expect ASX200 to slowly increase until roughly 20th Feb next year, at which point it will be back to the highs we reached on Oct this year.
After that the ASX200 is free to move higher at a much faster rate.

Nice reaction of Bitcoin daily in the bounderie
of the 256 CMA. I think when it breaks the red vtl it wil go up again:

Based on FLD targets we currently have an active target to the downside and currently an active target to the upside at about 100K. I think 100K will be a good exit for those that are still holding Bitcoin before it continues lower.

White line projecting into the future shows approx price path if white channel is to pick up the swing low.

Still pop in to keep an eye on you and the thread
You carry my full respect for your outstanding work you post
on the thread
I have admitted many times way over my pay grade sadly
so happy to plod along in my own way
So please keep the thread going
and
Wishing You
all the Health Wealth and Happiness in the coming year
Dave
ps

Life throws up mysteries all the time
Our Friend
Alain
as produce one of them
Really do hope he his in
Full Health
Such a real knowledge and all round

GOOD GUY

pps
My current chart with Indicators from the dim and distant past

Beautiful work Dave & thanks for the kind words.
A happy & prosperous New Year to you and your family. Let's hope it sees the return of Parisboy.

Looking very precarious imo.

Follow up to this cycle prediction:

Reversal in the zone, Indicator reversal in the OS zone and break of the 10SMA

The overall bias regardless of what is happening in the world should be up, until it and other cycles top out around Spring time





We have the beast cycle due in Spring'26 - The WAR cycle I have previously talked about has a very wide window to it, but its in play as we can see of the past few years around the world

We also have later in the year a low expectation, this cycle has a 100% win/hit rate since the year 1792, so if the beast cycle doesn't cause a major swing high in the USA markets, I would be cautious on new highs thereafter

Thinking aloud, I can see that cycle causing a bear market of some description and possibly a recession or as we also have the war cycle in play and as yet the market has NOT crashed/declined off the back of it, we could have something happen spring-summer time that does so, not 100% certain on that, I am 100% certain that we will have a pretty decent correction this year (been polishing the old crystal ball over the Christmas break)

Hello there.

i’ve been always just silently reading these posts. Are there any trade setups for the ones Mr.tmpascoe shows with bouncing in channels. Also, How do i get the tradingview script for that??

Would love to hear any new trading tips with this strategy and other indicators you use it with??

Thanks in advance~!

I follow the 18.6 year land cycle as the primary cycle for determining major economic downturns. The US land cycle is due to peak early this year if it didn't peak already in mid 25. The stock markets usually top within a year of that land cycle peak.
This will be the next major recession since the GFC and would coincide with what you're saying, although I'm anticipating a stock market peak late this year or even next year. It's all down to whether the land cycle has already peaked or hasn't yet. Unfortunately data is quite delayed making it more difficult.

CMA channel indicator available here.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/v...le-cma-length/

Hi

Yes its all linked and inter-mingled and operates as the notes on your charts - I watch the 18.6yr cycle too

Not sure if I've shown the bigger picture on here, but I have a major low point for late 2027 or spilling into 2028 - in terms of multiple cycles running for the USA markets, doesn't have to be a major low price level, but it should be pretty good

Technically on "paper" the WAR cycle was confirmed by USA funding/supply of weapons to Ukraine, supporting Israel in Gaza and Iran strikes, Syria strikes and Venezuela - but the cycle has ALWAYS had "BOOTS on the GROUND" and as yet that hasn't happened properly, technically it has, but not the assumption, the war cycle window is pretty wide so you can only time the window, and as yet we've not had the accompanying stock market crash that goes with it, this in my mind opens up the possibility for that cycle low in 2027/28 to be an area that, that may possibly happen - We'll have to wait and see

There HAS to be some kind of market correction this year, this cycle mentioned does not skip over into the next year - It can be mild/medium, its not going to be severe as the overall big cycle we are in is UP, you only get severe corrections in the big down phases - It might not be the low of the next few years either, it has been exceeded in the past, but these corrections are always quickly recovered (when this cycle occurs in the bog overall UP cycle periods)

Big 18 year cycle is up until 2034, this fits in with Benner cycles as that calls for a top/high in 2035 (should only be a few months out)

Interest rate cycle is massive (multi-decade) Turned UP in 2020, so the long-term bias for next few decades should be roller-coaster up/downs with the bias to the upside and double digits in 2050 give or take a few years either side

Time tells everything, so be interesting to see events unfold as the cycles work out

The following is from Time & Price blog & Twitter this weekend - This agrees basically with my expectation for 2026 - my expectation is NOT based on this cycle forecasting method, it just so happens to align virtually perfectly by coincidence

I dare say it also agrees with Larry Williams 2026 outlook as he uses Timing Solution as well - Don't own Larry's 2026 forecast so I'm assuming




Michael Jenkins in his 50 years day trading book, shows a 10 year cycle in IBM, next hit due in July 2026, which also lines up for a decent low turning point/bounce - So far in 30 years price history price from July through to Dec every 10 years moves in a very similar fashion - which can be epolited

This is what is due this year - the ACTUAL cycle is NOT static though

Back when I screen shot this chart I was simply plotting Larry Williams static OCTOBER 4 year cycle from one of his books

As you can see, the cycle is circa 4 years, 1st chart shows some of the history to it, 2nd chart shows in 2018 it came in Dec'18 (this was due to certain planetary cycles arriving in Dec'18), some would say that the cycle inverted, but it didn't................................

The 4 year cycle arrived, just in DEC'18

Don't strictly follow Larry Williams 4 yr Oct cycle, as you can see it arrives before, on or after Oct

Walter Bressert wrote a better article on it in 1991 - see screenshot below - This is the true 4 year cycle that should occur this year

You can easily update the chart to see what happened 4 years later in 2022, this was the bear market low of OCT

After some time- cable H4

256 cma is about to roll over for the first time since Oct 22, the bottom of the last 4yr cycle. 512 cma is also losing momentum and may well be topping.

No channels are dominant atm - state of indecision - but the smallest channel at the bottom is close to taking control. This would carry the price to about 103K but I suspect that'll be the end of the countertrend move before it heads lower to the bottom of the 4yr cycle.

A period of consolidation combined with the 4yr cycle peak will likely see a long period of negative returns this year