HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 25th November 2025.

Asian Markets Rise as US Stock Rally Boosts Global Sentiment; Bitcoin Stabilises.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...kets2_featured
Asian stocks traded mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong rally on Wall Street as investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, US futures slipped, oil prices fell, and Bitcoin attempted to recover after weeks of heavy selling.

Asian Stock Markets Mixed but Mostly Higher
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed at 48,628.85 as markets reopened from a holiday. The index was pressured by a sharp 10.3% drop in SoftBank after concerns emerged that Google’s new Gemini AI model could challenge returns from SoftBank’s major investment in OpenAI.

In the rest of Asia:

 

1. Kospi in South Korea rose 0.3% to 3,859.12.
2. Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 1.5%, extending tech-sector strength.
3. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.4% to 25,821.47.
4. Shanghai Composite gained 0.9% to 3,872.45.
5. Alibaba rose 1.6% ahead of its earnings release later in the day.
6. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1%, closing at 8,537.00.

US Stock Market Rallies Ahead of Thanksgiving Week

US markets will pause on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday before Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Still, investors kicked off the shortened trading week with strong gains:

 

1. S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 6,705.12.
2. Dow Jones added 0.4% to 46,448.27.
3. Nasdaq Composite surged 2.7% to 22,872.01.

The rally was fuelled by rising expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December, which would help support the US economy and boost equity valuations. AI-related stocks also drove momentum:

 

1. Alphabet surged 6.3% on optimism around its latest Gemini AI technology.
2. Nvidia climbed 2.1%, extending its AI-driven leadership.

Despite recent volatility, the S&P 500 remains within 2.7% of its all-time high, underscoring continued investor confidence in the US market outlook.

Key Inflation Data in Focus This Week
Markets are now awaiting the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, a major signal of inflation trends. Economists expect wholesale inflation to stay at 2.6% year-over-year.

A hotter-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut, especially with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target. Even so, traders currently price in an 85% probability of a rate cut, up sharply from last week’s levels.

Oil Prices Fall as Dollar and Euro Slip
In early Tuesday trading:

 

1. WTI crude dropped 25 cents to $58.59 per barrel.
2. Brent crude fell 30 cents to $62.42.
3. The US dollar eased to 156.70 yen.
4. The euro slightly declined to $1.1517.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...5.original.png


Bitcoin Price Attempts to Recover After Heavy Selling
Bitcoin, which has been under intense selling pressure in recent weeks, slipped 1.1% to $88,100, far below last month’s high near $125,000. The downturn erased over $1 trillion from the broader crypto market and drove Bitcoin to a seven-month low.

However, market signals suggest that the sell-off may be stabilising:

 

1. Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI is now around 32, near oversold territory.
2. Implied volatility on Bitcoin options has dropped to levels last seen in April.
3. Put-option premiums have fallen sharply, with the cost of downside protection dropping from 11% to 4.5%, according to Orbit Markets’ Caroline Mauron.

‘This indicates that stress has eased significantly and investors believe Bitcoin may have found a near-term bottom,’ Mauron said.

Still, caution dominates the crypto space. Bitcoin remains on track for its worst month since 2022, and crypto ETFs appear set for their largest monthly outflows since launching.





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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th November 2025.

Three Critical December Events That Will Shape Gold and the US Dollar.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...eb142.original
November has been one of the few months where Gold and the US Dollar have simultaneously risen in value. Over the past 30 days Gold has risen 4.00% and the US Dollar by 1.15%. However, since 1 November the US Dollar has outperformed the precious metal.

The two instruments rarely rise simultaneously in value due to the inverse correlation. However, the US shutdown has made it possible for both assets to advance. Traders are now reassessing the outlook for both assets over the next one to two months, noting that both are unlikely to keep rising. Economists tend to support that one of the two tends to give way for the other to continue increasing.

The performance of the US Dollar Index and Gold will almost entirely depend on the next three days.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUS Dollar Index 12-Hour Chart


10 December
On 10 December, the Federal Reserve will make its decision on interest rates for the last time in 2025. The decision will be made three days after the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, therefore, their decision will also depend on this release. However, the US Core PCE Price Index has not seen any shocking releases over the past few months.

Currently, economists and investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25%. According to the Chicago exchange, almost 80% of market participants believe the Fed will cut interest rates. The exchange also notes that 24% of traders believe the Fed will cut again in January 2026.

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, Gold is likely to gain further, particularly if FOMC members point to economic or employment weakness. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index may decline. Due to the rate adjustment already, economists and large institutions will largely be focused primarily on commentary about future rate adjustments. This is likely to be the biggest price driver, but the upcoming NFP figures may change how the Fed views interest rates in the first quarter of 2026.

16 December
This is likely to be the most volatile day for the US Dollar Index, Gold and US indices. Due to the government shutdown, the previous NFP data had not been made public. On 16 December, the US will release the NFP Employment Change for both October and November. The release is a rare event where the US releases two months worth of data at once.

If the NFP report shows rising unemployment and weak job creation, the Federal Reserve may consider a larger rate cut. This could potentially include a 50-basis-point cut in January 2025. If the data is weak but the Fed does not opt for a larger cut, it will likely move towards smaller but more frequent rate reductions.

Another reason why 16 December is likely to be the most volatile day of the year is that, in addition to the NFP releases, the US will also publish its PMI data and ADP Weekly Employment Change. Therefore, investors will have plenty of data to analyse and digest. The most impactful news will be the NFP release, Unemployment Rate, PMI reports, Average Salary Earnings and then the ADP Weekly Employment Change.

18 December
Only two days after the NFP release, markets are likely still adjusting their portfolios to reflect the new economic outlook, meaning volatility may remain elevated. However, the US is also set to publish its latest Consumer Price Index. Which will provide fresh insight into affordability, demand, and the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

If inflation reads lower than expectations or in line with expectations, Gold could potentially witness higher demand. Whereas, higher inflation paired with a cautious Fed would support the US Dollar.

Gold (XAUUSD)
If the new releases support a dovish Federal Reserve for the first quarter of 2026, the price of Gold may potentially rise.

Possible targets include price ranges between: $4,381.30 and $4,555.00



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM-Gold Daily Chart


US Dollar Index
On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve is likely to opt for a prolonged pause due to higher inflation data and strong employment figures, the US Dollar potentially may rise instead of Gold.

In that case, Gold may potentially fall to prices between $3,831.00 and $3,605.50

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Gold and the US Dollar rose together in November, but both are unlikely to continue climbing in the coming months.
2. Markets expect a Fed rate cut on 10 December, with guidance on future policy being the main focus.
3. 16 December could be highly volatile, with two months of NFP data released alongside major economic reports.
4. Weak NFP figures may push the Fed toward larger or more frequent cuts, supporting Gold and pressuring the Dollar.
5. The 18 DecemberCPI release will guide early-2026 expectations and determine whether Gold or the Dollar gains momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st December 2025.

December Opens Strong: Stocks Up, PMIs Down, Oil Rebounds.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=dollar
December opens with a surprisingly firm tone across global financial markets. Equities remain solidly positive for the year, with the MSCI World Index still trading just below its record highs from October. Despite concerns that higher global tariffs would damage economic activity, the impact has been more limited than feared. Supportive central banks and renewed optimism around artificial intelligence continue to underpin sentiment.

At the same time, attention is shifting toward consumer and holiday spending, an important indicator of how resilient demand remains amid affordability concerns and broader economic uncertainty. Early readings suggest holiday spending will be strong. Salesforce estimates global online Black Friday sales at $79 billion, while Adobe reported record online spending throughout the long weekend, including $11.8 billion on Black Friday alone. The National Retail Federation expects US November–December sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever.

Central bank policy remains a key theme into year-end. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB, BoC, BoJ and SNB are expected to hold steady.

US Outlook: Markets Fully Reprice a December Fed Cut
US markets have shifted decisively back toward expectations of a December rate cut after weeks of uncertainty. Implied rates currently reflect roughly 20 bps of cuts for December and nearly 30 bps for the January meeting. Dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams, combined with softer economic data, have outweighed the more hawkish tone from Chair Powell earlier in November.

This week brings a busy economic calendar with PCE price data, personal income and spending figures, ISM manufacturing and services reports, jobless claims, ADP employment, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and corporate layoff announcements. Notably, there is no Non-Farm Payrolls release this week due to the calendar structure.

Holiday spending remains a central focus. Despite inflation and a cooling labor market, consumers were highly active throughout the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to reach $14.2 billion in online sales, while online spending over the weekend remained consistently strong. Retailers such as Macy’s, Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch and others saw mixed performance as investors try to gauge how durable consumer demand will be going into 2025.

The December 10 FOMC meeting may still be contentious. Powell is expected to aim for broad consensus on a 25 bps cut, with some members, such as Miran, leaning toward a larger move. A signal of a likely pause in January may help minimize dissent within the committee and maintain policy credibility. Historically, more than two dissenting votes are rare, making Powell’s messaging especially important.



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Mixed Markets and Persistent Manufacturing Weakness
Asian markets began the week with a mixed tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell nearly 2% after weaker corporate investment figures and another month of contraction in the Manufacturing PMI. The PMI rose slightly to 48.7, but remained below the 50 threshold for the fifth straight month, reflecting soft domestic and global demand.

China’s factory activity also contracted for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing economic challenges despite an extended trade truce with the US. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose nearly 1%, supported by gains in tech, while the Shanghai Composite, Australia’s ASX 200, Taiwan’s Taiex, and Korea’s Kospi delivered modest or flat moves.

Weakness in regional PMIs reflects the lingering impact of US tariffs and weaker global manufacturing demand. However, exports in several Asian economies have shown signs of recovery in recent months, offering a partial offset to domestic softness.

US Equities: AI Momentum Continues Despite November Tech Volatility
US stock indices ended the post-Thanksgiving session higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all advancing. Still, the tech sector was volatile through November. Nvidia closed the month with a double-digit loss, while Oracle and Palantir also posted steep declines. In contrast, Alphabet recorded a nearly 14% monthly gain on the back of excitement surrounding its Gemini AI model, reinforcing that AI developments remain a major driver of sector leadership.

Oil Market Update: Prices Rebound as OPEC+ Holds Output Plan
Oil prices rose more than $1 per barrel early Monday after OPEC+ reaffirmed its intention to keep production hikes on hold during the first quarter. Brent traded above $63, while WTI hovered near $60.

However, November marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline for crude as expectations of a substantial supply surplus in 2026 weighed on sentiment. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, including US rhetoric toward Venezuela, Middle East instability, and damage to Kazakhstan’s pipeline infrastructure, continue to limit the downside and keep markets on edge.



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FX Market: Dollar Softens on Rate-Cut Expectations
The US dollar weakened against major currencies, with USDJPY sliding to 155.33 and the EURUSD rising slightly to $1.1609. Rate-cut expectations, shifting risk appetite, and improving global equity sentiment all contributed to the dollar’s softer tone.

Crypto Markets Face Heavy Liquidations as Volatility Intensifies
Crypto markets experienced sharp losses after nearly $646 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across major exchanges. Bitcoin fell over 5% to around $86,000, while Ethereum dropped more than 6% to the $2,815 level. Altcoins such as Solana, XRP, BNB and Dogecoin also saw declines between 4% and 7%.

The majority of liquidations were long positions, indicating the move was driven primarily by forced unwinding rather than fundamental shifts in sentiment. Open interest in BTC and ETH futures fell further, suggesting the leverage accumulated during the October rally continues to wash out. With liquidity still thin and macro uncertainty elevated, intraday volatility is expected to remain high.



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Conclusion: A Strong Start to December, but Risks Remain
The first days of December offer a picture of resilient consumer spending, strong global equity performance, and cautious central banks preparing for year-end policy decisions. Yet challenges remain: Asian manufacturing continues to weaken, tech stocks are navigating renewed volatility, oil markets face conflicting forces, and crypto remains exposed to leverage-driven swings.

As the month progresses, markets are likely to remain sensitive to inflation data, central bank guidance, and holiday-related consumer trends. For now, the balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic tone, but with the potential for sharp moves across asset classes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd December 2025.

Asian Markets Steady as BoJ Rate-Hike Signals Boost Global Yields and Trigger Bitcoin Drop.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...rkets_featured
Asian markets held steady on Tuesday following a volatile start to the week, as strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped stabilise sentiment after hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan unsettled global markets. Investors had been reacting to fresh expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike, a shift that pushed global bond yields higher and weighed on risk assets.
A successful auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds offered some reassurance. Solid demand, particularly from domestic pension funds, signalled that investors still see value in JGBs even as Japanese bond yields rise to multi-year highs. This helped calm a market that has been on edge since Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments revived speculation of policy tightening as early as this month.
The yen stabilised after Monday’s swings, and Japanese equities closed slightly higher, supported by financial stocks that typically benefit from higher interest rates. The backdrop of a weak yen and elevated import costs continues to place pressure on households and small businesses, further fuelling expectations that the BoJ may need to act sooner rather than later.
Carry Trade Risks in Focus as Investors Watch Yen Volatility
The renewed rise in global yields and the steady decline of the yen have also reignited discussions around the yen carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow yen cheaply to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. While some fear that growing currency volatility could trigger an unwind, several economists noted that current market conditions do not yet suggest a large-scale reversal.
Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed After Wall Street Pullback
Across the wider region, Asian markets delivered a mixed performance. Hong Kong and South Korea posted notable gains, with the Kospi supported by strong demand for technology names such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Mainland Chinese shares were more subdued.
This followed a soft session on Wall Street, where major indices retreated as rising global bond yields reduced appetite for equities. Investors continue to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy, especially as US manufacturing data indicates ongoing pressure on hiring and supply chains.
Bitcoin Price Drops on Thin Liquidity and Macro Stress
Cryptocurrencies faced sharper declines. Bitcoin fell below key support levels in a fast, liquidity-driven drop that traders attributed to the combination of thin weekend markets and the sudden spike in global yields following the BoJ’s policy shift.
Another emerging concern is the pending MSCI methodology review that may affect companies with heavy crypto exposure on their balance sheets. A potential reclassification could force index funds to adjust positions, prompting capital outflows. Market participants say traders are already factoring in the possibility of such forced moves.
Despite broader market weakness, selective crypto ETFs, particularly those tracking Solana and XRP, continued to attract inflows. On-chain data also shows that leverage in the system has been gradually declining, which may help reduce future volatility even if short-term sentiment remains cautious.
Bank of England Loosens Capital Requirements as UK Banks Pass Stress Tests
In the UK, the Bank of England introduced a notable regulatory shift by lowering its benchmark for bank capital requirements, the first major adjustment since the post-2008 reforms. After major banks passed the latest stress tests with a comfortable buffer, the BoE signalled confidence in the sector’s resilience and encouraged lenders to support households and businesses more actively.
The central bank also noted that capital requirements in the UK remain comparatively high relative to the US and EU, prompting a review of leverage rules. The move has been welcomed by banks and is expected to support credit conditions in the coming year.
UK Pension Funds Reduce US Equity Exposure Amid Tech Concentration Risks
Meanwhile, several large UK pension schemes managing more than £200bn have been reducing their exposure to US equities. The rapid rise of the Nasdaq, driven largely by a handful of megacap technology companies, has raised concerns about concentration risk and the possibility of an AI-fuelled valuation bubble.
To safeguard retirement savers, many funds have diversified into other regions or added hedging strategies to mitigate the risk of sharp corrections in overvalued sectors.
Outlook: December Set to Shape Global Market Direction
Looking ahead, investors expect December to be a defining month for global markets.

1. The Bank of Japan’s rate decision will be crucial for yen stability and Asian markets.
2. The Federal Reserve meeting could confirm whether rate cuts are nearing.
3. Crypto markets remain sensitive to potential MSCI-related reclassifications.
4. UK banks will be adjusting to new capital rules.

For now, the easing of JGB volatility and selective gains across Asian equities provide a measure of stability. But with rising global yields, currency swings, and fragile liquidity in several asset classes, markets remain braced for further shifts as year-end approaches.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th December 2025.

Global Markets Update: US Data Fuels Rate-Cut Hopes as Japan Edges Toward Tightening.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_DLxG792

US markets continued to react positively to signs of a cooling labour market on Wednesday, as a surprisingly weak ADP employment report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another 25 bp rate cut at its 10 December meeting. ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000, far below forecasts, adding to speculation that policymakers may feel comfortable easing again.

The data helped extend the rally in Treasuries. Yields erased their overnight gains and moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year declining to 3.483%, back below the 3.50% threshold, while the 10-year slipped to 4.058%. The drop in yields provided a tailwind for equities:

 

1. Dow Jones: +0.86%, approaching its record high from mid-November
2. S&P 500: +0.30%
3. Nasdaq: +0.17%, held back by early weakness in big tech

Microsoft was a notable drag after reports suggested the company had reduced AI-related sales targets, though later denials helped the stock stabilise. Meanwhile, the latest ISM Services PMI painted a mixed picture but did little to change expectations for policy easing next week.

Asia: Markets Mixed as Bank of Japan Prepares to Shift Gears
Asian equities delivered a mixed performance on Thursday, even as US markets hovered near record highs. The focus in the region centred squarely on Japan, where Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has been quietly preparing political leaders for the country’s first rate hike in years.

Ueda reportedly stressed the risks of a persistently weak yen and rising inflation during discussions with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who just last year referred to rate hikes as ‘stupid.’ The diplomatic effort appears to have worked, markets now view a December hike to 0.75% as almost certain and believe political resistance to tightening is diminishing.

However, the bigger uncertainty lies in the BOJ’s long-term rate trajectory, particularly as there is little clarity around where Japan’s neutral interest rate sits. The uneasy balance between political expectations and monetary policy will likely keep Japan’s bond market volatile.

Japanese Bond Yields Hit 17-Year Highs
The shift in expectations has pushed the 10-year JGB yield to 1.92%, its highest level since 2007. Analysts warn that yields near these levels may prompt Japanese banks to revisit their long-term bond strategies.

The move comes amid broader global bond-market jitters and ahead of the BOJ’s key meeting on 18-19 December.

 

1. 30-year JGB yield briefly touched 3.44%, a record high, before easing after a well-received government auction.
2. Strong demand came from pension funds and foreign investors, even as domestic insurers remained cautious.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...Y.original.png



Asia-Pacific Market Snapshot

1. Nikkei 225: +2.3% to 51,028.42, approaching its all-time high.
   Gains were supported both by expectations of a Fed rate cut and speculation about BOJ tightening.
2. SoftBank Group: +9.2% after its founder reiterated plans to prioritise AI investments following the exit from Nvidia.
   Despite the jump, shares remain down nearly 28% over the past month.
3. Hang Seng: +0.5%, reversing earlier losses on strength in tech and consumer stocks.
4. Shanghai Composite: −0.1%
5. Kospi: −0.2%, as tech and autos weighed on the index
6. ASX 200: +0.3%, recovering mid-session
7. Taiex: flat
8. India Sensex: +0.2%

US futures were slightly higher in early Thursday trading.

US Market Recap: Stocks Edge Closer to Records
The broader US market continued edging towards new highs:

 

1. S&P 500: +0.30%, now within 0.6% of its record
2. Dow Jones: +0.9%
3. Nasdaq: +0.2%

Semiconductor names led the charge, Microchip Technology surged 12.2% after forecasting stronger-than-expected profit and sales, and Marvell Technology rose nearly 8% on solid earnings.

Treasury yields continued to ease: the 10-year slipped to 4.06%, extending the move lower sparked by the weak ADP report.

Bitcoin also rebounded strongly, climbing back above $93,000 after last month’s slide below $81,000.

Oil prices firmed modestly early Thursday:

 

1. WTI crude: $59.40 (+$0.45)
2. Brent: $63.07 (+$0.40)

The US dollar softened slightly, slipping against major currencies except the yen.

FX Market Spotlight: Sterling Surges on Strong UK Data
The British pound delivered its strongest one-day rally since April, jumping 1.1% against the US dollar on Wednesday. Sterling held those gains early Thursday, trading near $1.335, its highest level in over a month.

The move came as UK business activity surprised to the upside:

 

1. UK Composite PMI (Nov): 51.2 (forecast: 50.5)

The upbeat data supported the view that economic momentum is stabilising, easing concerns surrounding last week’s Budget. Strategists at Bank of America and MUFG highlighted that the rally reflected both stronger data and the unwinding of negative positions built up ahead of the Budget announcement.

The dollar’s softness was amplified by the weak US payrolls data and renewed speculation around the Federal Reserve leadership, after President Trump signalled that Kevin Hassett may be nominated as the next Fed Chair, fuelling expectations of faster rate cuts. The DXY fell 0.5% on the day.



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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th December 2025.

A Key Week Ahead: What Traders Need To Know.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_ArnafIq
Traders and institutions are preparing for a week where four Central Banks will confirm their interest-rate decision. In addition to this, the US will resume releasing economic and employment data. As a result, institutions expect the week to hold high volatility and potentially strong trends as firms position their portfolios.

This week, the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decisions. The main economic releases are: US JOLTS Job Openings, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Australian Employment Data and UK Gross Domestic Product.

AUD - Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
The best-performing currency over the past month has been the Australian Dollar. The currency has also maintained bullish price movement as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision edges closer. Over the past week, the Australian Dollar Index rose more than 1.50%.

Tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT), the RBA will hold its monetary-policy meeting. Given stable economic growth of 2.1% in the third quarter, a strong labour market with unemployment at 4.3% in October and employment rising by 42.2K, and an increase in the trimmed CPI to 3.3%, the regulator is likely to keep the interest rate at 3.60%. These conditions suggest that any significant policy changes will be delayed.

A meaningful adjustment to borrowing costs is not expected before the second half of next year. If the RBA indeed keeps interest rates unchanged and indicates no adjustments in the first quarter of 2026, indeed the Australian Dollar could witness stronger bullish price movement. According to economists, inflation is not high enough to worry economists but is too high to warrant rate cuts. Particularly, as the Australian economy continues to grow.

Lastly, Australia will also release the latest employment data on Thursday. If the Unemployment Rate remains at 4.3% and the country continues to add to its Employment Change, the currency may again find further support.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM-AUDUSD Chart
USD - Federal Reserve Rate Decision
The main price driver for the week will be the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and the press conference. Investors are clearly pricing in an interest rate cut as we can see from the bullish price movement within indices and the decline in the Dollar. This trend is continuing during this morning’s Asian Session.

Tomorrow the US will release the latest 2 JOLTS Job Openings with the latest figure expected to show 7.14 million. The figure is lower than in previous months which further prompts a rate adjustment, but is not low enough to trigger recession fears. If the figures indeed read 7.14 million or lower, the US Dollar may witness a short-term spike downwards.

If the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut to 3.50-3.75, the US Dollar indeed may witness a decline. But the medium to longer term trend will depend on how ‘split’ the FOMC was in their decision and the guidance given by the Chairman. If the split and guidance is deemed‘dovish’ the US Dollar potentially may decline back to 98.00.

US Indices - JOLTS Job Openings & Weekly Unemployment Claims
For US indices, such as the S&P500 and NASDAQ, the main price driver will be the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and forward guidance. However, the JOLTS Job Openings and Weekly Unemployment Claims are also likely to drive volatility. The Weekly Unemployment Claims have beaten expectations for 3-weeks straight.

However, a higher figure potentially could have a positive impact, particularly if the Federal Reserve is clearly dovish. However, this would depend on the conditions set during the upcoming days.

The VIX index is currently trading slightly higher as is the Put/Call Ratio. This is a slight concern for long positions, but investors will be watching to see whether both indicators decline later in the day.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - S&P500 Chart

Key Price Takeaways:

1. Four major central banks’ rate decisions are expected to create significant market volatility this week.
2. Australia’s strong economy supports expectations the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.60%.
3. Major RBA policy changes are unlikely before mid-2026, supporting continued Australian Dollar strength.
4. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates, pressuring the US Dollar.
5. JOLTS data and unemployment claims will influence short-term USD volatility and rate expectations.
6. US indices may rise on a dovish Fed, though VIX and Put/Call ratios signal caution.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th December 2025.

Goldman Sachs Says 64% Expect S&P 500 Gains in 2026.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold-featured
The market is also fully pricing in an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve tomorrow evening. However, rising yields indicate that investors are cautious about the central bank opting for a ‘hawkish cut’. The US 10-Year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since September which prompted the stock market and Gold to dip.

A dip in the price of both Gold and the stock market is understandable considering the busy two weeks ahead. Over the past two months the US has not released any economic data applying more importance to the upcoming data. The key data that can determine upcoming trends are the NFP figures for October and November and US inflation. The forward guidance provided by the Federal Reserve will also play a major role.

Forecasts - S&P 500
Goldman Sachs has released survey results from Wall Street analysts and traders. The survey outlines their expectations for how the S&P 500 will perform by the end of 2026. According to the data, 25% of respondents expect the index to finish between 7,000-7,250. Another 25% see it ending between 7,250-7,500, while 14% expect it to close above 7,500. The survey also shows that 36% believe the index will end with no gains or a decline.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - S&P 500 Chart


The S&P 500 declined by 0.21% by the end of the day on Monday. However, the price during the US session was trading up to 0.62% lower before recovering. Even when taking the decline into consideration, the price is still trading above the 75-Bar EMA on the 2-hour chart which is key for those wishing to trade long. On smaller timeframes, the price also recently rose above the 200-bar SMA which is also vital.

The stocks that pressured the S&P 500 most on Monday were Alphabet, Tesla and Netflix. While NVIDIA and Microsoft, which both rose more than 1.50%, were the key reasons the S&P 500 was able to recover the key losses. This morning Alphabet stocks are trading slightly higher, Netflix again lower and Tesla with no major change. If the S&P 500 is to recover it is vital that at least 65% of the stocks holding the highest weight increase in value.

For the medium to longer term, investors wishing to speculate the upward price movement will be hoping for three key points. The first is that the Federal Reserve does not opt to provide a ‘hawkish’ guidance for the next quarter. For example, cutting rates but indicating that another cut is unlikely for January 2026. In addition to this, for the NFP data to come in as per expectations and for US inflation to remain at 3.00% or below.

If the upcoming days play out as mentioned above, the S&P 500 could potentially rise to above $7,000 as 64% of the market believes in 2026.

Technical Analysis - Gold
Similar to the S&P 500, Gold’s price will depend largely on the Fed, CPI and NFP. Expectations of monetary easing have already lifted gold by 1.2% over the past week, keeping the broader trend positive as traders position for a weaker US Dollar.

However, the FOMC remains divided. Chair Jerome Powell continues to warn against overly optimistic rate-cut expectations, even as inflation cools and political pressure builds. The University of Michigan’s latest survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 4.1% and five-year to 3.2%.

Additional support for Gold may come if the Bank of England cuts rates on 18 December. Furthermore, geopolitical risks persist, from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict to potential instability in South America.

If the US Dollar continues to decline and the economic data support the Federal Reserve in opting to continue frequent rate cuts, Gold may continue to rise. If this is the case, traders may potentially aim for $4,385.00 which is close to the commodity’s all-time high. However, if news and the US Dollar pressures Gold downwards, traders may aim for a price between $3,915 and $3,995.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - Gold (XAUUSD) Chart


In the short term, the JOLTS Job Openings will influence today’s volatility. A lower figure may prompt a renewed upward trend.

Key Takeaways:

1. Markets expect a Fed rate cut, but rising Treasury yields show investors fear a potential ‘hawkish cut’. A hawkish cut would pressure stocks and Gold.
2. Upcoming US data: NFP, inflation, and Fed forward guidance. The three releases will be crucial in determining short-term and medium-term market direction.
3. Goldman Sachs’ survey shows mixed S&P 500 expectations for 2026. 64% of the market forecast gains, while 36% expect a flat or negative performance.
4. Gold’s trend remains positive on easing expectations, but its outlook hinges on the US Dollar, Fed policy and inflation data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th December 2025.

Job Data Point Towards a Hawkish Cut.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...serve-Building
Most assets are trading sideways after the US JOLTS Job Openings came in much higher than previous expectations. Investors were previously hoping the figure would remain low to prompt a dovish Federal Reserve. However, the stronger labour data indicates the Fed may indeed cut rates but stick to a pause thereafter.

For this reason, Job Openings did not provide clarity on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy. The market believes the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25-basis-points at tonight’s announcement. However, the guidance provided at the press conference thereafter is still not certain. If the Chairman, Jerome Powell, signals a pause for January, the US Dollar may rise while Gold and stocks decline.

NASDAQ & S&P500 - Lack of Direction
Due to the JOLTS Job Opening figures increasing the risk of the Federal Reserve opting for a ‘hawkish cut’, both indices traded sideways with a downward tilt. Out of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the NASDAQ performed better due to its exposure to growth stocks. However, the comments after tonight’s rate decision will be key to the performance of stocks over the next week.

The JOLTS Job Openings for October were 7.66 million, while for November they rose slightly to 7.67 million. Both announcements were significantly higher than what the market was expecting. November Job Openings were the highest seen since July 2025. Due to the positive data, the possibility of a rate cut tonight fell by 2%, and by 5% for a cut in January 2026.

A rate cut could provide some upward momentum, but as it's priced in, the guidance will be the main driver. Economists advise if the Fed indicates a pause for January, the S&P 500 could decline to $6,665. However, if rate cuts are likely to be frequent in 2026, the index could rise to $6,926.50 or even to an all-time high.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

The US Dollar
The best-performing currencies of the past week have been the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The worst-performing has been the Japanese Yen. For this reason, if the US Dollar declines, many investors will monitor the AUDUSD or EURUSD. The Euro has been the best performing currency of 2025. Whereas, if the US Dollar is to increase in value, investors may see opportunities within the USDJPY.

Some analysts expect policymakers to continue easing monetary policy in January, while others believe the current ‘dovish’ phase may pause for an extended period. The former scenario is viewed as more favourable for risk-on assets.

In this context, it’s worth highlighting recent remarks from President Donald Trump. He told Politico that he would require any nominee for Federal Reserve Chair to support an immediate cut to borrowing costs.

The President also said he would permit Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to ‘approved customers’ in China. The US government would allow this only if the company pays a 25% share of the profits from those transactions. According to Trump, Chinese President Xi welcomed the decision, suggesting an easing of tensions between the two economies.

The easing of tensions between the US and China is supporting the US Dollar, but its price movement would depend on the Federal Reserve.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Higher-than-expected JOLTS data increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
2. A 25-basis-point rate cut is expected, but Jerome Powell’s guidance will drive markets.
3. NASDAQ and S&P 500 traded sideways amid fears of a ‘hawkish cut.’
4. Markets may fall if the Fed signals a January pause, but the US Dollar can benefit from this.
5. USD movement depends on Fed guidance and easing US-China tensions supporting sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th December 2025.

Why Is the USD Declining?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...00x628_o5yQOrE
The US Dollar Index is moving upwards but only after a bearish price gap. The bearish price gap saw the US Dollar Index instantly fall close to a two-month low. As a result, the price of Gold is trading significantly higher than the past few days. However, why is the US Dollar taking a hit when the Fed is indicating a pause?

What the Fed says and What Markets Believe Can Be Different
Investors continue to digest the outcome of yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-3.50% and announced the reinstatement of Treasury bond purchases totalling $40 billion. The QE programme being reinstated is a key reason why the US Dollar is weakening, as it is deemed to be a dovish move. This also indicates that the FOMC can see risks to the economy, government debt and employment.

At the same time, officials signalled the possibility of pausing the easing cycle, emphasising the need for clearer labour-market and inflation data, both of which remain key concerns, before taking further action.

The decision reflected a divided committee, passing by a vote of nine to three. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the rate cut, while Board member Stephen Miran argued for a larger 50-point reduction.

Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone. He noted that an additional rate hike is not the baseline scenario, yet indicated that rates are now within a ‘neutral’ zone, giving the Fed room to adopt a wait-and-see stance to assess the impact of recent moves on the economy.

FOMC projections currently indicate only one rate cut next year. Market participants, however, still expect two or more. This mismatch is a major reason the Dollar is declining. Institutions and investors are not aligned with the Fed’s outlook for the next 12 months. Economists also highlight very low oil prices. These prices are likely to help keep inflation contained over the coming months.

US Dollar Index - Future Pricing
If the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate indicate a weaker employment sector, the pricing for the upcoming months is likely to change quickly. Particularly if the inflation rate also remains at the same level or lower. Under these conditions, the US Dollar may continue to fall and Gold to rise.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart


A key support level for the US Dollar Index in the medium term is 97.40. Currently, the Dollar is retracing upwards but technical indicators continue to maintain a bearish bias.

Key Takeaways:

1. The Dollar is weakening because markets view the Fed’s renewed $40B QE programme as a dovish signal.
2. A major driver of Dollar pressure is the clear mismatch between the Fed’s forecast of one rate cut and markets expecting two or more.
3. Rising risks in growth, inflation, and employment are highlighted by a divided FOMC vote and persistently low oil prices.
4. If upcoming NFP and inflation data soften, the Dollar may continue to fall while Gold gains further momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th December 2025.

Asian Markets Slip as BOJ Rate Hike Looms; Bitcoin Under Pressure.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...392270459d22fd
Asian equity markets opened the week lower, while bitcoin prices retreated as investors positioned ahead of a widely expected interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) later this week. Broader risk sentiment remained fragile, with traders balancing central bank policy expectations, slowing Chinese growth signals, and renewed volatility in global technology stocks.

Japan Stocks Fall Despite Improving Business Sentiment
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index declined 1.3% to 50,168.11, even as the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey pointed to improving sentiment among large manufacturers. The diffusion index measuring optimism rose to 15 from 14 in the previous quarter, marking its highest level in four years.

The Tankan index reflects the percentage of firms reporting favourable business conditions minus those reporting unfavourable ones. While current conditions improved, expectations for the coming quarter were less optimistic, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in Japan’s economic outlook.

Japan’s economy contracted at an annualised pace of 2.3% in the July-September quarter, its first contraction in six quarters. However, uncertainty for export-heavy sectors eased following an agreement between Japan and the United States that limits baseline import tariffs to 15%, providing relief to major automakers and electronics manufacturers.

BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Bitcoin and Risk Assets
The stronger Tankan results reinforced market expectations that the BOJ will proceed with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, lifting the benchmark rate to 0.75%. Higher domestic yields are expected to attract capital back into Japan, reducing demand for alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin prices dropped below $88,000 early on Monday from around $92,000 before recovering to just above $90,000 later in the session, according to CoinDesk data.

Chinese Markets Decline on Weak Investment Data
Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese equities moved lower after fresh data underscored persistent weakness in domestic demand. Government figures showed fixed-asset investment, including spending on infrastructure and factory equipment, fell 2.6% year-on-year in November. This implied an 11.1% decline over the first eleven months of the year.

Retail sales increased 4% over the January-November period, while industrial output rose 4.8%, offering limited reassurance amid broader concerns over economic momentum.

The data followed a high-level meeting of China’s Communist Party leadership last week, which delivered no major policy changes. Officials reiterated commitments to boosting consumer spending and investment to support domestic demand.

While policy support could drive a partial recovery in the coming months, it is unlikely to prevent China’s growth from remaining weak throughout 2026.

Asia-Pacific Market Performance Overview

1. Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Fell 1.4% to 25,625.60
2. Shanghai Composite: Declined 0.6% to 3,867.92
3. Kospi (South Korea): Dropped 1.8% to 4,090.59
4. ASX 200 (Australia): Slipped 0.7% to 8,640.60
5. Taiwan Benchmark Index: Lost 1.2%
6. India Sensex: Little changed

Wall Street Futures Stabilise After Tech-Led Sell-off
US equity futures pointed modestly higher, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.2% and Dow Jones futures up 0.3%. On Friday, Wall Street retreated from record highs, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1% for its worst session in three weeks. Technology stocks led the decline, dragging the Nasdaq Composite down 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.5%.

Broadcom weighed heavily on market sentiment, plunging 11.4% despite reporting quarterly profits that exceeded analyst expectations. While analysts described the results as solid, investor concerns surrounding the sustainability of the artificial-intelligence rally intensified. Oracle fell nearly 11% despite delivering a profit beat, fuelling broader worries about AI-related valuations. Nvidia shares declined 3.3%, while Oracle extended losses with an additional 4.5% drop.

Markets Update
In early Monday trading, US crude oil rose 26 cents to $57.70 per barrel, while Brent crude added 29 cents to $61.41 per barrel.

The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, slipping to 155.16 from 155.92 late Friday. The euro edged lower to $1.1733 from $1.1739.

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Remain Range-Bound
Bitcoin traded near $89,000 as Hong Kong markets reopened after the weekend, surrendering last week’s post-Federal Reserve rally. FlowDesk noted that demand faded quickly once the 25-basis-point Fed rate cut was delivered, with liquidity thinning into year-end.





https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png


Bitcoin and Ether retraced midweek highs, while altcoins remained under pressure. The broader crypto market continues to reflect macro-driven caution rather than outright risk aversion.

Despite surface-level hesitation, positioning beneath the market remains relatively stable. In a Telegram note, FlowDesk highlighted that leverage remains low, volatility is muted, and capital is rotating towards short-dated yield. Market participants are locking in longer-term funding at compressed rates, signalling a focus on balance-sheet optimisation rather than directional trades.

Glassnode observed that bitcoin’s range-bound price action has prompted renewed buying from digital-asset treasury companies. Periods of reduced accumulation by such buyers have previously been cited as a factor behind bitcoin’s stagnation earlier in the year.

This combination of cautious trading and quiet accumulation has left bitcoin confined to a broad trading range, with upside momentum fading but downside pressure remaining limited. Until leverage returns or macro conditions prompt accelerated treasury buying, price action is likely to stay subdued, even as ownership shifts toward longer-term holders.

Market Movement Snapshot

1. Bitcoin (BTC): Trading near $89,000, constrained by low liquidity and weak follow-through after giving back post-Fed gains.
2. Ethereum (ETH): Showing relative resilience, holding gains better than Bitcoin amid selective demand and lower selling pressure.
3. Gold: Consolidating near record highs around $4,300 per ounce, supported by global rate cuts, elevated debt levels, and sustained central bank demand.
4. Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened lower as investors assessed Wall Street’s pullback, China’s November activity data, and Japan’s improving business sentiment.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...9.original.png


Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Glut Concerns and Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices rose modestly from the lowest levels in nearly two months, supported by signs of stronger Chinese demand even as oversupply concerns continue to weigh on the market. Brent crude hovered near $62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded close to $58 in thin holiday trading ahead of Christmas and New Year.

China’s apparent oil demand and refining activity were higher year-on-year in November, though other economic indicators pointed to broader weakness. Oil prices are on track for an annual decline amid expectations of a growing surplus as OPEC+ and other producers increase output despite soft demand growth.

Oversupply concerns are increasingly evident in Middle Eastern crude markets, although geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor under prices.

Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend, striking a major refinery and an oil depot in an effort to disrupt revenue streams funding Moscow’s war effort. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump dispatched envoys to Berlin for another round of talks aimed at ending the conflict.

In parallel, Iran reported seizing a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman suspected of carrying smuggled fuel, while the United States intercepted a vessel off Venezuela as pressure mounts on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Trump has also reiterated threats of US strikes against drug cartels.

With Brent crude trading volumes below daily averages, price movements are likely to be amplified, increasing the risk of choppy and volatile market conditions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th December 2025.

US Stock Futures Down as Markets Brace for Delayed Jobs Report and Inflation Data.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...d_mindset_risk

It’s finally here.
US stock futures moved lower on Tuesday, extending recent losses as global markets prepared for a crucial wave of delayed US economic data that could shape interest rate expectations well into next year.

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%, deepening losses from the start of the week. Technology stocks led Monday’s pullback, as lingering concerns around artificial intelligence investments continued to weigh on sentiment.

While AI-related volatility has dominated recent sessions, market attention has firmly shifted towards macroeconomic developments, with investors closely watching the release of the November US nonfarm payrolls report, which arrives later than usual due to the recent government shutdown.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6.original.png

Delayed US Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage
Today’s employment figures will set the tone for another critical release later this week, as November US consumer inflation data is scheduled for publication on Thursday. Together, the jobs and CPI reports represent a substantial portion of the ‘great deal of data’ that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised policymakers will assess ahead of their next interest rate decision in January.

The long-awaited November NFP report is expected to fill a data gap left by the shutdown and reignite debate over the future path of Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2026. The figures are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT alongside a partial update to October payrolls data.

Economists forecast a modest increase of around 50,000 jobs for November, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.4%, keeping it near its highest level since 2021. The softer outlook has reinforced expectations that the Fed may shift its focus more decisively toward supporting labour market conditions rather than battling persistent inflation. Currently, market pricing reflects two Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, assuming employment data continues to cool without triggering a sharp economic downturn.

Regarding inflation, economists expect Thursday’s report to show that US consumer prices rose 3.1% year-on-year in November, reinforcing the view that inflation remains elevated but is no longer accelerating.

Market participants are hoping for a scenario in which labour market conditions weaken just enough to justify further rate cuts, without tipping the economy into recession. Lower interest rates tend to support economic growth and asset prices but also carry the risk of reigniting inflation pressures.

Markets Embrace the ‘Bad Is Good’ Narrative
Analysts at Morgan Stanley described the current environment as a ‘bad is good’ regime, where weaker jobs data could actually be bullish for equities by increasing expectations for additional monetary easing.

‘This week’s jobs data could prove more important for equity market perceptions of interest rate policy than last week’s FOMC meeting,’ the bank noted, adding that moderate labour market weakness may be interpreted positively by stock investors.

Asian Markets Retreat as Global Rate Risks Loom
Overnight, Asian equity markets also declined sharply. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.6% to 49,383.29 after preliminary factory data indicated a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity. The S&P Global Flash PMI edged higher to 49.7 in November from 48.7 previously, remaining just below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

Investors are closely monitoring Japanese economic indicators ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday, where a widely anticipated interest rate hike could trigger volatility across global bond markets, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

China Data Signals Loss of Momentum
Chinese markets also moved lower after weaker-than-expected November data. Retail sales rose just 1.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace of growth since the pandemic in 2022. Lending activity and fixed investment figures also came in softer, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum into year-end.

‘Overall, the data confirms a loss of momentum heading into year-end and aligns with our growth forecasts moderating to around 4% in the final quarter,’ said Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.6% to 25,211.24, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.1% to 3,825.71.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png

Oil Prices Edge Lower Ahead of Key Data
In early trading on Tuesday, US benchmark crude oil (WTI) slipped 37 cents to $56.45 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 35 cents to $60.21 per barrel, as investors awaited fresh signals on economic growth and energy demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th December 2025.

Mixed US Jobs Data, Cooling UK Inflation Keep Rate-Cut Expectations Alive.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...d012a44be519c7
Markets struggled to find direction after a mixed US jobs report failed to provide a clear signal for policymakers or investors. While job creation slightly exceeded expectations, rising unemployment and downward revisions to previous data reinforced the view that the US labour market is cooling.

US Jobs Report Keeps Rate-Cut Expectations Alive
November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, slightly above forecasts. However, this was offset by a sharp downward revision to October’s data and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021.

The data was seen as too inconsistent to materially change the Federal Reserve’s outlook. Markets continue to expect interest rate cuts in 2026, though pricing suggests a pause in January. Fed funds futures imply just 6 basis points of easing in January, but around 58 basis points of cuts over the full year.

US Treasury yields moved both higher and lower during the session before ending slightly lower, reflecting the lack of conviction in the data.

Wall Street Mixed as Tech Offsets Broader Weakness
US equity futures slipped early Wednesday as investors digested the report. The S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,800.26, while the Dow Jones dropped 0.62% to 48,114.26. The Nasdaq gained 0.23% to 23,111.46, supported by strong gains in technology stocks.

Tesla surged 3.1% to a record high, driven by optimism around AI and electric vehicles. Nvidia rose 0.8%, while Meta gained 1.5%, helping stabilise the tech sector.

Energy stocks underperformed, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron falling more than 2%, as oil prices briefly dipped below $55 per barrel before rebounding.

European Markets Drift Lower on Growth Concerns
European equities opened weaker amid global risk aversion and expectations that central banks may keep rates steady for longer. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.58% to 5,718.95, pressured by signs of slowing US demand and rising unemployment.

France’s CAC 40 closed at 8,106.16, while Germany’s DAX hovered around 24,076.87. The broader STOXX 600 remained flat at 579.80, supported by gains in defensive sectors. Switzerland’s SMI edged up 0.10% to 13,049.75, while Spain’s IBEX 35 dropped 0.70% to 16,921.90.

Energy shares initially fell after Brent crude slumped nearly 3% to its lowest level since February 2021, though prices later recovered on supply concerns.

Asia Mixed as Investors Await Fresh Signals
Asia-Pacific markets delivered mixed performance. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.43% to 49,597, supported by a weaker yen and encouraging domestic data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.77% to 25,429.50.

In contrast, Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.19% to 4,570.82, while Indian markets were set for a cautious open as foreign investor flows remained sensitive to global data and trade uncertainty.

Commodities and FX: Oil Rebounds, Dollar Recovers
Oil prices rebounded sharply after comments from former US President Donald Trump regarding a possible blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, reversing earlier losses.

The US dollar initially weakened, with the DXY index falling to 97.87, but later rebounded to 98.16, gaining against most G10 currencies, particularly the Japanese yen. The British pound strengthened after strong UK wage data.

Gold and other safe-haven assets saw modest demand as equity markets drifted and investors awaited further guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and upcoming US data, including retail sales revisions.

UK Inflation Miss Fuels Rate-Cut Bets
UK inflation cooled more sharply than expected in November, strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.

Headline inflation slowed to 3.2%, below forecasts of 3.5% from economists surveyed by Reuters and down from 3.6% in October. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also fell to 3.2% from 3.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

What Drove Inflation Lower?
Additional downward pressure came from:

 

1. Lower tobacco prices, following a large increase a year earlier
2. Falling women’s clothing prices

However, Fitzner noted that while factory gate price increases slowed, the cost of raw materials for businesses continued to rise, highlighting ongoing pressures in parts of the supply chain.



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Bank of England Cut Seen as Likely
The inflation data followed figures showing UK unemployment rose to 5.1%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its meeting on Thursday.

Economists expect a 5-4 split among policymakers, with Governor Andrew Bailey likely to cast the deciding vote.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the drop in inflation but warned that challenges remain.
‘I know families across Britain who are worried about the cost of living will welcome this fall in inflation. But there is more to do,’ she said.

With economic growth limited to just 0.1% in Q3, analysts argue that weakening demand and a loosening labour market are creating strong conditions for a rate cut.

‘These figures, alongside a wave of weak data, make a rate cut tomorrow look certain,’ said Suren Thiru, Economics Director at the ICAEW. ‘They also show the UK is moving towards a more manageable inflation environment.’

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th December 2025.

US Inflation Well Below Expectations! Fed Guidance About to Change?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...26315187a109b1
An interesting week for investors, with safe haven assets and particularly metals, performing well. The best-performing assets were Palladium, Platinum, Silver and Gold, which are currently outperforming the Stock Market and the US Dollar. Analysts point towards lower inflation and the EU treading a fine line with Russia as the reason for the demand. From the currency market, the US Dollar is the best performing, while stocks have had their worst week of the month.

Though key events have taken place throughout the week which may indicate this may not be a continuing trend. These include the US inflation rate, Bank of England Rate Decision and Oils renewed decline.

US Inflation Rate (CPI)
On Thursday afternoon, the US made public its Consumer Price Index for the first time since October 2025. Economists were expecting inflation to rise, as it has done throughout 2025. Nonetheless, the expectations were again incorrect, and inflation actually fell from 3.00% to 2.7%. Analysts deem this to be significantly lower than expectations and can potentially change the guidance they have set for the market.

With the inflation reading 0.4% lower than previous predictions analysts are contemplating whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkishness. Fed indicators such as the Fedwatch Tool and the Fed Dot Plot show no major changes. These indications continue to point to only two rate cuts in 2026 and none for January.

However, with inflation falling to a much healthier level and losing its ‘stickiness’ the market view is likely to change. Considering this is the key requirement for the Federal Reserve, it is possible and many analysts have already spoken about earlier or more frequent cuts. According to the market view the Federal Reserve will either cut another 0.25% basis points in January or will be forced to make frequent cuts thereafter.

As a result, the stock market potentially may find support particularly as institutions look to take advantage of the slight discount in price. Currently, this morning the S&P 500 has risen 0.28% and the NASDAQ 0.60%. In addition, the VIX index is trading 0.75% lower which points towards a ‘risk-on’ sentiment.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngHFM - S&P 500 15-Minute Chart


Technical analysts also note that the bullish price momentum has risen as the European Session edges closer. If the price momentum is maintained or rises above $25,155.15 (NASDAQ), buy signals potentially may continue to materialise.

Other Global Developments
The US is not the only one making headlines this week. Major Central Bank decisions are also stealing the spotlight. A key decision came from the Bank of England, where interest rates were cut by 25 basis points to 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee vote was narrowly split, with five members supporting the cut and four opposing it.

In its statement, the BoE said inflation remains above target but will return to 2.0% faster than previously forecast, and stressed that future easing will depend on the inflation outlook. Looking ahead, the BoE is likely to maintain a dovish tone, while Morgan Stanley forecasts three rate cuts in 2026. According to Morgan Stanley these adjustments are likely to come in February, April, and June.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan chose to increase interest rates to 0.75% in order to tackle rising inflation and wages. However, even with the rate hike, the Bank of Japan’s main rate remains lower than economists’ earlier expectations from the start of 2025. In addition, the BoJ governor, Ueda, maintained a neutral tone, not indicating any imminent further hikes. As a result, the Japanese Yen along with the British Pound remain under pressure.

Key Takeaways:

1. Precious metals outperformed stocks and the US Dollar as investors sought safe havens amid easing inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
2. US inflation fell to 2.7%, well below expectations, challenging the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy outlook. Monetary Policy Tools maintain their hawkishness but are likely to change.
3. Markets increasingly expect earlier or more frequent Fed rate cuts, despite official projections still showing only two cuts in 2026.
4. US equities showed early recovery signs as volatility fell and risk-on sentiment returned, supported by improving technical momentum.
5. Diverging central bank policies pressured the pound and yen as the BoE cut rates and the BoJ stayed cautious.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd December 2025.

Gold Climbs to All-Time High After Extreme Bullish Momentum.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...eb142.original
Gold’s price has witnessed one of its strongest recent gains, rising by almost 2% in a short period of time. Gold now trades at an all-time high and has broken above its key resistance level at $4,353.70. All metals trade higher on Monday a few days before Christmas including the best-performing metal, Palladium.

Why is Gold’s price increasing at such speed and is the trend likely to continue in January 2026?



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HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart


The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
Gold has at times seen bullish impulse waves during the previous week but has been unable to maintain momentum. However, the recent inflation data and economists expecting rate cuts in 2026 are fuelling stronger momentum during today’s Asian session. The Federal Reserve in December opted for a ‘hawkish cut’, meaning they chose to cut by 0.25% but stay relatively hawkish in their guidance.

The Federal Reserve gave the impression that they believe it would be appropriate to cut on one to two occasions in 2026. However, market participants are expecting a minimum of two cuts, with many pricing in three cuts. The dovish outcome has strengthened as the US inflation rate fell from 3.00% to 2.7%, the lowest since the summer. In addition, analysts forecast the Core Consumer Price Index to fall from 3.0% to 2.6%. This continues to allow the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver.

Gold and Geopolitics
According to analysts, the most recent demand for Gold is not derived from Central Banks and governments due to global risks. Reports indicate Gold’s demand is largely coming from large funds and institutions. Nonetheless, the geopolitical sphere is a key element further driving investors to Gold.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is still actively ongoing, even though there has been nearly a month of fairly intense negotiations involving the US, EU, Ukraine, and Russia. However, a recent important factor is developments in Venezuela.

Last week, US President Donald Trump labelled the Venezuelan government a ‘terrorist organization’ and announced a full naval blockade of oil tankers travelling to or from the country. A day earlier, reports said US ships were tracking another vessel, marking the third such incident in recent days. While experts do not rule out ground operations or airstrikes, Trump does not appear eager to further escalate the situation. That said, since September, the US has targeted more than 20 ships in the Caribbean Sea suspected of drug trafficking.

Meanwhile, volatility in the precious metals market has declined again. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows that on Friday, investors held 181.09 thousand gold futures contracts and 84.84 thousand options contracts. This compares with last week’s average levels of 217.50 thousand futures contracts and 72.00 thousand options contracts.

The US Dollar - A Key Risk For Gold?
Even though Gold’s trend is in line with most analysts’ guidance and expectations, key risks do remain. The US Dollar and Gold are known to be inversely correlated. However, the price of the US Dollar is not necessarily declining enough in order to warrant such a large price movement for Gold.

The US Dollar is witnessing a slight decline on Monday, however, it remains higher than last week’s market open price. In addition, the global stock market remains strong which again does not warrant such high demand for safe-haven assets.

For this reason, even though the trend cannot be ignored or denied, caution regarding retracements and corrections is advisable, according to most analysts. If the price is to correct, price action points towards a potential decline to the range between $4,356.40 and $4,474.80.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Gold hit record highs, rising nearly 2% and breaking key resistance at $4,353.70, with other metals also advancing.
2. Falling inflation and expected 2026 rate cuts are strengthening gold’s momentum despite the Fed’s relatively hawkish guidance.
3. Geopolitical tensions, especially Ukraine and Venezuela developments, are increasing safe-haven demand from large funds and institutions.
4. Correction risks remain, as the US Dollar stays firm and equities remain strong. If a retracement is to form, potential pullbacks could aim for the $4,356-$4,475 range.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd December 2025.

End of Year Currency Review & Forecasts: Euro & Japanese Yen.


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_KZ4i4nj
The Euro is the best-performing currency of 2025 while the Japanese Yen is one of the worst-performing. The Euro’s bullishness derives from the Eurozone’s expansionary fiscal policy, Dollar weakness and the demand for European stocks.
The Japanese yen, by contrast, followed a more complex narrative. The Japanese Yen was the best performing currency within the first six months due to interest rate hikes. However, the Yen was the worst performing in the second half of the year and is currently trading with a 3.30% minus.
Are the Euro and Japanese Yen’s Trend likely to continue into 2026?
The Euro & Market Forecasts
The Euro Index, which measures the performance of the Euro against four different currencies, trades 0.15% higher. With the US Dollar Index continuing to significantly decline and European stocks maintaining their competitiveness, the Euro continues to strengthen. Many economists believe this is likely to continue in 2026, provided that the US Dollar Index continues to decline.
The European Central Bank was actually one of the most dovish in 2025 cutting interest rates on four occasions. However, the ECB has not cut interest rates for six months now and economists do not expect any cuts in the first quarter of 2026. The Eurozone’s inflation rate is currently at 2.1%, in line with the ECB’s inflation target.
In related developments, José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Bank of Spain told journalists that he sees no reason to adjust interest rates and expects monetary policy to remain unchanged in the near term. Many other members of the ECB’s voting committee also have kept to this rhetoric. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, many believe the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates more aggressively than it admits.
On the other hand, there are also negatives for the Eurozone such as tariffs and its commitment to Ukraine. Today, Chinese authorities announced the implementation of tariffs of up to 42.7% on dairy products, including cheese, milk, and cream, imported from the European Union. The decision follows the conclusion of an investigation launched in August 2024 into alleged subsidies. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, these subsidies caused significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The tariffs will take effect on 23 December. Companies that cooperated with the investigation will face a tariff of 28.6%, while those that did not cooperate will be subject to the full 42.7% rate.

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HFM - EURUSD 1-Hour Chart

Technical analysis, mainly price action, indicates that EURUSD will maintain its bullish bias while it remains above 1.17640. However, 1.18295 is a key resistance level, which traders will be paying close attention to along with the US Dollar Index. A key support level for the US Dollar Index is 97.10.
The Japanese Yen & Government Currency Intervention
The Japanese Yen was the worst-performing currency in the second half of 2025 after failing to meet hawkish expectations. Analysts had expected the Bank of Japan to increase rates to a minimum of 1.00%. However, the BoJ has risen to 0.75% and is reluctant to give a more hawkish outlook for the next quarter. In addition, the recent tensions with China have also dampened sentiment towards the Japanese Yen.
Today, on the other hand, the Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency for two reasons. The first is related to technical analysis and investors taking advantage of its low price while the US Dollar declines. However, a key price driver is the Finance Minister’s recent comments. The country’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, told journalists that the government has a ‘free hand’ to make bold decisions in order to support the currency when required.
The comments made by Mrs Katayama suggest that the Japanese government may intervene in the currency market to support the yen. This action would likely occur if the exchange rate rises above 157.00. Though it is important to note, it is not known when they will decide to do so or what price they deem to be too high.
According to analysts, the Japanese Yen can recover and perform better in 2026. However, this is only possible if the Bank of Japan takes a more hawkish approach while other global central banks do not.

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HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaway Points:

1. The Euro was 2025’s top-performing currency, driven by Dollar weakness and strong demand for European assets.
2. Policy divergence supports the Euro as the ECB pauses while the Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut rates.
3. Despite trade tariffs and geopolitical risks, the Euro maintains a bullish technical and macro outlook.
4. A key price driver is the Finance Minister's comments that the government can act freely to support the Yen.
5. The Japanese Yen surged early in 2025 but weakened sharply after failing to meet hawkish rate expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th December 2025.

Week Ahead: Markets Drift Into 2026.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...LYSIS_Featured
As global markets move quietly into the New Year, 2025 comes to a close on a far steadier footing than many feared at the start of the year. Early volatility was driven by renewed US trade tariff concerns and fears that higher costs could reignite inflation while weighing on growth. That worst-case scenario ultimately failed to materialise. Tariffs were delayed or softened, while central banks pivoted towards rate cuts to offset cooling labour markets, helping global economies remain broadly resilient.

Equity markets are ending the year with strong gains, many at or near record highs. Bond markets, meanwhile, present a more mixed picture, with US and UK 10-year yields near the lower end of their 2025 ranges, while European yields remain relatively elevated. With global economic calendars unusually light, attention turns to seasonal trading dynamics, geopolitical developments, and a handful of market-moving headlines as 2026 approaches.

Trading & Market Moves: Geopolitics, Commodities, and Crypto in Focus
Asian markets opened the week mixed, reflecting a lacklustre post-Christmas session on Wall Street and rising geopolitical tensions around Taiwan. US equity futures were little changed, highlighting the cautious tone amid thin holiday liquidity.

China’s military confirmed it had conducted joint air, naval, and rocket force drills around Taiwan, describing the exercises as a warning against ‘separatist’ movements and what it termed ‘external interference.’ Taiwan responded by placing its forces on alert, calling Beijing ‘the biggest destroyer of peace.’ The drills followed renewed Chinese anger over US arms sales to Taiwan and comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan’s military could become involved if China were to take action against the island.

Despite the elevated rhetoric, market reactions remained contained. Taiwan’s benchmark index rose 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.3%, and China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.2%, while South Korea’s KOSPI stood out with a near 2% rally, supported by strength in chipmaker stocks. Australia’s ASX 200 edged lower by 0.3%.

Commodities: Energy and Precious Metals React
Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical risk and positioning adjustments. Gold slipped 0.4% to around $4,535 per ounce, while silver surged nearly 3% to record levels, supported by ongoing supply constraints. Both precious metals remain strong performers for the year, benefitting from safe-haven demand, expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, and a weaker US dollar outlook.



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Oil prices rebounded modestly after sharp losses late last week. WTI crude traded near $57.30 per barrel, while Brent crude rose towards $60.80, as fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal added a risk premium back into energy markets. Over the weekend, Russia attacked a major heating and power facility in Ukraine’s Kherson region, while Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, developments that underscore how fragile diplomatic progress remains despite signals of movement towards a potential peace framework.

Crypto: Bitcoin Reclaims Momentum
Cryptocurrencies outperformed, benefitting from rising geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. Bitcoin climbed over 2% to trade above $90,000, lifting broader crypto sentiment. Major altcoins including Ether, XRP, and Solana posted gains of 3% or more. With liquidity thin, price moves have been amplified, but the resilience of crypto assets continues to attract traders seeking alternatives to traditional risk assets.



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FX: Dollar Softens Into Year-End
In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly, with USD/JPY slipping towards 156.28, while the euro held steady near $1.1770. FX trading remains subdued, though expectations of further Fed easing in 2026 continue to cap dollar upside.

Santa Claus Rally and Thin Holiday Trading
Markets remain focused on the traditional Santa Claus Rally, covering the final five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January. Historically, this period has delivered positive equity returns nearly 80% of the time, though light volumes mean moves can be exaggerated in either direction.

This year, the rally faces headwinds from a more cautious Fed outlook, lingering inflation concerns, and recent volatility in technology stocks. Still, year-end window dressing and portfolio rebalancing may offer short-term support to market leaders.

North America: FOMC Minutes in the Spotlight
The US data calendar is sparse, leaving Tuesday’s FOMC minutes as the key macro event. While unlikely to shift expectations for a January pause, the minutes will be examined for details behind the Fed’s more hawkish 2026 outlook, including concerns over inflation persistence and financial conditions.

Initial jobless claims and the Chicago PMI round out the week, though clearer economic signals will emerge only in early January with payrolls, ISMs, and labour market data.

Europe: PMIs and Growth Risks
European markets briefly reopen before closing again for New Year celebrations. Final Manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm ongoing contraction across the Eurozone, with Germany remaining a focal point amid weakening industrial activity. In the UK, modest manufacturing expansion contrasts with labour market softness, keeping the Bank of England on track for further easing in 2026.

Asia: China PMIs and Regional Data
China’s official and private PMIs will provide key insight into year-end momentum, with manufacturing and services activity expected to remain under pressure amid trade tensions and property-sector challenges. Elsewhere in Asia, data from Korea, India, and Southeast Asia will offer additional clues on regional growth trends as the year closes.

Transition Week Into 2026
The final trading week of 2025 is less about decisive market direction and more about positioning, risk management, and headline sensitivity. Thin liquidity magnifies reactions to geopolitical developments, commodity price swings, and crypto momentum, while meaningful trend confirmation is likely to wait until institutional participation returns in early January.

As markets drift into 2026, traders and investors alike are balancing cautious optimism with unresolved risks, setting the stage for a potentially volatile start to the new year.

Best of luck in the trading year ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th January 2026.

Nikkei 225 Leads Amid US-Japan Cooperation and BOJ Policy.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Bull_featured

The Nikkei 225, along with Asian stocks more broadly, has been among the best-performing markets in the first week of 2026. These instruments have risen over 3.5% in recent days, more than double the gains of US and EU assets. Japanese Stocks have been increasing in value for 3 consecutive years, and with the index starting the year on a high, traders are paying close attention to developments.

Economists note that stocks are performing well globally and the bullish price movement is not solely seen in Japan. However, certain developments are favouring Japan in absence of economic releases due to the holidays. For example, the growing relationship between the US and Japan.

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HFM - NIKKEI225 1-Hour Chart
Japan Does Not Condemn US Military Action In Venezuela
US President Donald Trump has invited Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for an official visit to the United States later in 2026, likely in the spring, aimed at strengthening economic and security ties amid rising tensions in East Asia. In addition to this, Japan has chosen not to condemn the US actions in Venezuela, unlike China and Russia.

Again this can prompt more favourable relations in the future, such as lower tariffs and more trade. A vital factor for the Japanese economy.

Bank of Japan & Stocks
In addition to the above, factors from 2025 also continue to support the Nikkei 225. This primarily includes the higher wages which has been agreed with trade unions, and the Bank Of Japan’s dovishness. Market participants in the first few months of 2025 advised they expect the BOJ’s rate to rise to 1.00%. However, rates have only risen to 0.75% and the committee refuses to give concrete guidance for further rate hikes.

As a result, the dovishness of the Central Bank continues to support Japanese stocks. However, this is something which could potentially change in the upcoming months. If the BOJ does take a more hawkish tone, then the stock market may come under some pressure unless wages also increase.

Are Oil Prices About to Fall and What Would That Mean for Stocks?
Oil is expected to be one of the most closely watched assets in 2026. Traders should be mindful that movements in oil have a significant impact on inflation, interest rates, and consumer demand. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices can strongly influence both currency and equity markets.

Last Saturday, President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were arrested and transferred to a pretrial detention facility in Brooklyn. They could face charges related to narcoterrorism and weapons possession as early as today. While this escalation in political tensions briefly affected investor sentiment at the start of the trading session, it has not triggered a wave of new trades yet.

This muted market reaction is likely due to the fact that the US blockade on oil exports remains in place, preventing tankers from leaving the country’s ports. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep output unchanged for February and March despite disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while reaffirming its flexibility to reinstate previously lifted production cuts of 1.65 million and 2.2 million barrels per day.

If these developments eventually prompt higher supply, the price of crude oil can decline further. If prices and inflation falls, the global stock market potentially can rise, particularly if interest rates also fall.

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HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart
Key Takeaways:

1. The Nikkei 225 and Asian stocks have started 2026 strongly, rising over 3.5%.
2. Closer US-Japan ties and Japan’s neutral stance on Venezuela support positive investor sentiment.
3. The Bank of Japan’s cautious, dovish policy continues to underpin stock market strength.
4. Oil price movements remain critical, influencing inflation, interest rates, and global equity performance.
5. Maduro’s arrest and OPEC+ output decisions have had limited immediate impact on markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th January 2026.

US Stock Futures Steady as Investors Await Key Jobs Data After Record Wall Street Rally.

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US stock futures were little changed early Wednesday, as investors paused after Wall Street pushed deeper into record territory and shifted focus towards a crucial week of US labour market data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures traded flat. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%, reflecting cautious positioning following Tuesday’s strong rally. US stocks advanced during regular trading despite lingering geopolitical tensions after US military action in Venezuela over the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 49,000 mark for the first time, securing its second consecutive record close. The S&P 500 also finished at an all-time high, continuing its move towards the 7,000 level.

Economic Data Takes Centre Stage as Jobs Reports Approach
Attention is now firmly on a packed US economic calendar, as data releases begin to normalise following recent disruptions. On Tuesday, figures showed signs of slowing momentum in the services sector, with S&P Global’s final Services PMI for December marking the weakest expansion in eight months.

Today, investors are focused on the release of ADP’s monthly report on private-sector employment. The report has shown job losses in three of the past four months, though forecasts point to a modest rebound in hiring. Markets will also assess November’s JOLTS data, which tracks job openings, voluntary quits, and layoffs, key indicators of labour market tightness.

These releases set the stage for Friday’s December nonfarm payrolls report, which investors see as a critical gauge of whether the US economy is cooling enough to support potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.



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CES 2026 Highlights Debate Over Tech Sector Outlook
The CES 2026 technology conference continues to shape market sentiment, as ambitious forecasts from industry leaders contrast with more cautious assessments from Wall Street.

Nvidia remains a focal point, with analysts divided over whether the stock is approaching bubble-like valuations or entering another phase of rapid growth fuelled by demand for artificial intelligence.

Japanese Stocks Post Best Start to a Year in Decades
In Asia, Japanese equities recorded their strongest start to a year in several decades, supported by heavy buying from overseas investors and domestic individuals.

The Topix and Nikkei 225 extended gains on Tuesday, lifting their two-day advances to 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Bloomberg-compiled data showed this was the strongest performance for the first two trading days of a year since at least 1990.

Despite the rally, concerns persist about the sustainability of the AI-driven surge and ongoing geopolitical risks. Analysts said attention surrounding Venezuela is likely to shift towards the responses of China, Russia, and India. Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities, said that ‘depending on how developments unfold, this could become a geopolitical risk that draws attention’.

Valuations and Retail Buying Support Japan’s Equity Rally
Buying has been concentrated in large-cap Japanese stocks. Compared with US equities, Japanese stocks continue to trade at lower price-to-earnings ratios, supporting foreign investor demand, according to Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

Some analysts also pointed to increased retail participation, as individual investors add funds to tax-free NISA accounts at the start of the new year.

Market optimism has also been supported by expectations of improving corporate earnings, stronger corporate governance, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policies, alongside resilience in US markets and hopes for US interest-rate cuts.

Much of the earnings recovery has already been priced in, Doshida said, adding that if profits exceed expectations, the Nikkei 225 could rise to 55,000 or higher. The index closed at a record 52,518.08 on Tuesday.

Gold Prices Ease as Focus Shifts to US Data
Gold prices edged lower as investors looked beyond heightened geopolitical tensions and refocused on upcoming US economic data.

Bullion traded near $4,470 an ounce after rising more than 4% over the previous three sessions. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would deliver up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, while the White House declined to rule out military force to acquire Greenland. China, meanwhile, imposed export controls on goods shipped to Japan with potential military uses.

Gold recently recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.

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Silver posted an even sharper rally last year, rising nearly 150% amid supply constraints and concerns over potential US import tariffs. Silver fell as much as 2.2% on Wednesday but remains up 12% so far this year, supported by strong retail demand, particularly in China.

Commodity Index Rebalancing Poses Near-Term Risk
Analysts warned that near-term pressure could emerge from commodity index rebalancing, as passive funds adjust holdings to reflect new weightings.

Citigroup estimated that rebalancing across the two largest commodity indices could lead to outflows of about $6.8 billion from gold futures and a similar amount from silver.

By early afternoon in Singapore, gold was down 0.6% at $4,466.04 an ounce. Silver fell 1.9% to $79.69, platinum dropped 4.2%, and palladium declined 2.9%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th January 2026.

US Stocks Pause as Oil Politics, Gold Volatility, and Macro Risks Intensify.

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Wall Street opened Thursday with a softer tone as US stock futures pulled back following a choppy session that ended several days of gains for major indices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones briefly hit fresh intraday peaks before reversing lower, while the Nasdaq held up better thanks to tech leadership.

This pause in equities reflects growing macro risk, geopolitical headlines, and commodity volatility, with markets increasingly pricing in uncertainty across multiple fronts.

Rotation and Risk Appetite
US stock futures dipped on Thursday morning as traders reset after a volatile session. Technology and growth stocks were mixed, while broader benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones showed signs of fatigue after reaching intraday highs earlier in the week.

The Nasdaq Composite outperformed peers, supported by strength in megacap tech, including a rally in Alphabet shares that briefly lifted its market value above Apple’s, highlighting how leadership remains narrow and selective.

Oil Markets & Geopolitical Risk: Venezuela in Focus
Markets are digesting fresh developments out of Venezuela, where the US government’s involvement in energy exports has intensified geopolitical risk for markets and commodities.

US Policy Shift on Venezuelan Oil
The Trump administration has signalled an intent to control Venezuelan crude exports and manage revenues through US channels moving forward. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US plans to control future sales of Venezuelan oil indefinitely, a major shift in energy policy that could reshape regional supply dynamics and global risk premia.

Reuters also reported that oil sales from Venezuela to the US are expected to continue indefinitely, with sanctions being eased to allow initial shipments of more than 50 million barrels to flow to US markets.

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Market Reaction & Sector Implications
These developments have moved oil-related equities. US oil stocks rose as investors priced in a potential revival of Venezuelan production and renewed access for major energy firms. Chevron, already the only US company with operational access, saw its position strengthen amid investor speculation. However, analysts caution that execution risks remain high due to Venezuela’s dilapidated infrastructure and political backlash, underscoring how geopolitical headlines can quickly shift from tailwinds to volatility drivers.

Key Macro Catalysts This Week
1. Friday Jobs Report
The upcoming US labour market report for December will be a major market focal point. With fewer major economic prints on the calendar, traders are assigning outsized importance to payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage growth data, all of which could meaningfully shift expectations around growth and monetary policy heading into Q1.

2. Supreme Court & Tariff Decisions
Headline risk remains elevated as markets await potential legal clarity on tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Supreme Court’s opinion, expected imminently, could add another layer of market impact, particularly for sectors sensitive to trade policy and input costs.

Gold & Silver: Technical Alert in Precious Metals
Commodities experienced a marked shift this week, particularly gold and silver, which had been among the most crowded trades heading into 2026.

After strong gains in late 2025, both metals are now pulling back:

 

1. Gold has retraced close to its key support zone near the 100- and 200-hour moving average, a critical technical juncture for buyers.
2. Silver is similarly testing its own 200-hour average, with recent price action indicating increased volatility and short-term bearish risk.

These moves illustrate how even favoured consensus trades can unwind rapidly when macro headlines and price risk align against them, a valuable reminder that risk management remains paramount for commodities positioning.

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This Week’s Market Summary
Bullish Forces

 

1. Tech leadership at CES, with AI and silicon innovation driving investor interest.
2. Continued risk appetite supporting broader equity markets.
3. Potential long-term energy supply implications from US–Venezuela policy developments.

Bearish/Volatility Drivers

 

1. Macro uncertainty around labour market data and fiscal policy.
2. Geopolitical risk in oil markets and trade policy headline risk.
3. Corrections in crowded consensus positions like gold and silver.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th January 2026.

NFP Alert! Markets Search for Direction as Oil & Gold Rise and Defence Stocks Surge.

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Asian stock markets edged modestly lower on Friday, while the US dollar remained supported, as investors turned cautious ahead of key US non-farm payrolls data and a highly anticipated US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariff policy, a decision that could reintroduce volatility across financial markets.

Market sentiment remained fragile amid elevated geopolitical tensions, which continued to underpin oil prices and support defence stocks. Developments in Venezuela, including a high-profile US military operation in Caracas, remained in focus. However, the dominant drivers for markets were political risk, macro uncertainty, and legal event risk, keeping investors sidelined ahead of major catalysts.

Asian Stock Markets Trade Mixed as Event Risk Limits Positioning
Across Asia, trading conditions remained subdued. MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.07%, hovering just below record highs reached earlier in the week.

Japan’s Nikkei outperformed regional peers, rallying 1.53% after Fast Retailing, the operator of the Uniqlo brand, reported strong earnings and issued upbeat guidance, providing a boost to Japanese equities.

European equity futures pointed to a mixed open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.37%, while FTSE futures edged 0.20% lower.

Wall Street Steadies as Defence Stocks Surge on Budget Expectations
US stock markets ended the previous session largely unchanged, although defence and aerospace stocks extended gains, pushing the sector to fresh record highs. European defence stocks also continued to attract inflows, reflecting rising geopolitical risks and renewed focus on military spending.

Defence stocks surged after President Donald Trump called for a significant increase in US military spending, proposing a defence budget of $1.5 trillion by 2027, up sharply from the current level of around $901 billion. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the higher budget would help build a ‘Dream Military’ and argued that strong tariff-generated revenues would make the increase affordable.

Today, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded lower as investors positioned cautiously ahead of US labour market data.

US Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Persist
Recent US data has pointed to cooling labour demand, with companies increasingly relying on productivity gains rather than expanding payrolls. Economists expect December’s non-farm payrolls report to show moderate job growth of around 60,000, alongside a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6%.

The US economy shed 105,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in nearly five years, largely due to deferred buyouts among federal employees. Despite signs of softening, markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as policymakers’ December projections suggested a more cautious outlook. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

Gold Prices Rise Despite Stronger Dollar and Commodity Index Rebalancing
Gold prices edged higher today, extending weekly gains, even as a firmer US dollar and commodity index rebalancing pressures weighed on sentiment. Investors continued to position defensively ahead of US jobs data and broader policy uncertainty.

Gold rose 0.41% to $4,470.57 an ounce by 05:36 GMT, putting bullion on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%. Gold previously touched a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery gained 0.22% to $4,470.60.

The move higher came despite the US dollar trading near a one-month high, a factor that typically weighs on gold prices by increasing costs for non-dollar buyers. Markets were also watching for the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Watch Our Live NFP Coverage Today
Traders and investors looking for real-time insights on today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report can join our live streaming session. My colleague Michalis, HFM analyst, will break down the jobs data as it comes out, discuss impacts on gold, defence stocks, FX, and equities, and provide actionable market commentary.

Gold prices could face near-term pressure as the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index gets underway. The process adjusts commodity weightings based on recent price performance and market conditions, potentially triggering futures selling.

This could result in futures contracts being sold in the market to comply with rebalancing requirements. An estimated $6.8 billion in silver futures and a similar amount in gold futures are projected to be sold, following the strong precious metals rally that increased their index weightings.

Nevertheless, Valecha noted that the longer-term fundamentals supporting gold and silver remain intact, suggesting any pullback may be technical rather than driven by a shift in underlying demand.

Dollar Steady, Yen weakens Oil Prices Extend Weekly Gains
In currency markets, the US dollar index edged 0.03% higher to 98.97. The euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1653, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.31% against the dollar.

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The USD held its ground, particularly against the yen, with USDJPY climbing at 157.25. This strength came despite robust Japanese data showing household spending jumped 2.9% year-on-year in Novemberwell above expectations, and surged 6.2% month-on-month. While these numbers signal short-term resilience in consumer activity, the broader outlook remains fragile as real wages continue to decline, falling 2.8% y/y and weighing on purchasing power.

The yen, however, appeared more affected by renewed tensions over China’s restrictions on rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan, a move tied to Taiwan-related remarks. Japanese officials expressed serious concern, indicating the matter would be raised with G7 partners and US counterparts, injecting a geopolitical risk premium into JPY trading.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.