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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #92,521
  • Dec 19, 2025 4:25am Dec 19, 2025 4:25am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{image} {image}
Next week 159,36 ?
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  • #92,522
  • Dec 19, 2025 4:40am Dec 19, 2025 4:40am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{quote} {image} {image}
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  • #92,523
  • Dec 19, 2025 8:15am Dec 19, 2025 8:15am
I am surprised that some traders are surprised by the weakening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar.
Look at the U.S . 10y, which is climbing like a mule. There will be no clear weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen until it falls below 3.85.
  • #92,524
  • Dec 19, 2025 11:16am Dec 19, 2025 11:16am
Quoting hussin naiji
I am surprised that some traders are surprised by the weakening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Look at the U.S . 10y, which is climbing like a mule. There will be no clear weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen until it falls below 3.85.
very odd post from an old member.

if you mean US market by climbing like a mule, it had 0 effect on USD, in the same 10y you mentioned the dollar is almost ranging, maybe rallied for 2y(2021-2022) then back to ranging the next 2y(2023-2024) and this year it's breaking 2y low's.

stock markets has no effect on global currency exchange equilibrium, otherwise, 10y of climbing like a mule is enough to force some Countries into bankruptcy, but that's not the case.

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,525
  • Dec 19, 2025 1:13pm Dec 19, 2025 1:13pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} very odd post from an old member. if you mean US market by climbing like a mule, it had 0 effect on USD, in the same 10y you mentioned the dollar is almost ranging, maybe rallied for 2y(2021-2022) then back to ranging the next 2y(2023-2024) and this year it's breaking 2y low's. stock markets has no effect on global currency exchange equilibrium, otherwise, 10y of climbing like a mule is enough to force some Countries into bankruptcy, but that's not the case. {image} {image}
for as long as I can remember, over the past thirty years, when I was trading the USD/JPY currency pair, I have been paying attention to these four things , and most of the old traders .even when the US dollar was 97 yen or even 160 yen :
1- U.S. 10 y
2-interest rate differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan,
3- policy shifts sometimes leading to sharp swings.
4-stock markets
  • #92,526
  • Dec 19, 2025 1:19pm Dec 19, 2025 1:19pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} very odd post from an old member. if you mean US market by climbing like a mule, it had 0 effect on USD, in the same 10y you mentioned the dollar is almost ranging, maybe rallied for 2y(2021-2022) then back to ranging the next 2y(2023-2024) and this year it's breaking 2y low's. stock markets has no effect on global currency exchange equilibrium, otherwise, 10y of climbing like a mule is enough to force some Countries into bankruptcy, but that's not the case. {image} {image}
I would be happy for you to explain and guide me as to why the Japanese yen has fallen against the US dollar despite the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates.
Best Regards
Hussin
  • #92,527
  • Dec 19, 2025 1:37pm Dec 19, 2025 1:37pm
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} I would be happy for you to explain and guide me as to why the Japanese yen has fallen against the US dollar despite the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. Best Regards Hussin
every Central Bank use interest rate to balance their economy, not to affect Foreign Exchange. as you said, US market in a bull run for the last 10y, but the dollar is ranging without breaking highs every year, can you explain that ?
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,528
  • Dec 19, 2025 1:46pm Dec 19, 2025 1:46pm
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} I would be happy for you to explain and guide me as to why the Japanese yen has fallen against the US dollar despite the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. Best Regards Hussin
btw, Japan interest rate was -0.1% for decades, but still the Yen managed to have cycles of strength against the dollar.

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,529
  • Dec 19, 2025 1:58pm Dec 19, 2025 1:58pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} every Central Bank use interest rate to balance their economy, not to affect Foreign Exchange. as you said, US market in a bull run for the last 10y, but the dollar is ranging without breaking highs every year, can you explain that ?
I don't agree with your opinion. It is true that every central bank tries to manage the economic variables of that country by increasing or decreasing the interest rate. But increasing or decreasing the interest rate directly affects the bonds and, as a result, the value of that country's exchange rate is determined against other countries.. for example carry trade
  • #92,530
  • Dec 19, 2025 2:04pm Dec 19, 2025 2:04pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} very odd post from an old member. if you mean US market by climbing like a mule, it had 0 effect on USD, in the same 10y you mentioned the dollar is almost ranging, maybe rallied for 2y(2021-2022) then back to ranging the next 2y(2023-2024) and this year it's breaking 2y low's. stock markets has no effect on global currency exchange equilibrium, otherwise, 10y of climbing like a mule is enough to force some Countries into bankruptcy, but that's not the case. {image} {image}
also I disagree with your opinion about the relationship between the 10-year US Treasury note and the dollar index.Whenever the 10-year bond goes up, the dollar index might go down. I mean, it might not be in one direction.
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  • #92,531
  • Dec 19, 2025 2:20pm Dec 19, 2025 2:20pm
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} I don't agree with your opinion. It is true that every central bank tries to manage the economic variables of that country by increasing or decreasing the interest rate. But increasing or decreasing the interest rate directly affects the bonds and, as a result, the value of that country's exchange rate is determined against other countries.. for example carry trade
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} also I disagree with your opinion about the relationship between the 10-year US Treasury note and the dollar index.Whenever the 10-year bond goes up, the dollar index might go down. I mean, it might not be in one direction. {image}
I'm fine if you don't agree with me, but your posts does not explain why the dollar is not rallying with US market, or why the Yen get stronger against the dollar when the rates are fixed at -0.1% for decades, and why in one post you say "directly affect" and second post "might" and "might not".

your post about the 4 things you watch is correct, IF you're trading stocks, but not a direct affect on foreign exchange.
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,532
  • Dec 19, 2025 4:09pm Dec 19, 2025 4:09pm
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  • #92,533
  • Dec 19, 2025 6:00pm Dec 19, 2025 6:00pm
GBPJPY = GBPUSD*USDJPY
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each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
  • #92,534
  • Dec 20, 2025 5:20am Dec 20, 2025 5:20am
Quoting Zeusfleeky
{quote} Buy limit activated, 157.639 by next week
Okay we got there a bit quicker than expected, so I see a new high on the weekly around 158.500 - 159.00 followed by a vicious drop to fill our October gap.

What do you guys think?
  • #92,535
  • Dec 20, 2025 5:31am Dec 20, 2025 5:31am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} true, but not really, group trading or collective trading is like indicators, they have to be in sync to give you a confirmed reading to trade. a very good example is the Turtle Traders, their success is the rules they follow and can't break, so all of them are in the same page. this thread for example, yes, everyone in sync trading USDJPY, but everyone has his/her own POV on strategy/trading-style, and that's fine, but it's like thinking out loud and making noise for other members, the negative part is ONE post can trigger doubt for some...
This is the kind of knowledge people pay for you know, yet your here dishing it out for free. Such a great mind.

Doing God's work. You are a better person than most. Spent a good portion of my early trading years getting trades from the forum and I always lost money not until I understood that it's just people giving personal opinions and it draws down to how you use that information to fit your money making.

So I am happy seeing kind people who help us get better
  • #92,536
  • Dec 20, 2025 5:49am Dec 20, 2025 5:49am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} {quote} I'm fine if you don't agree with me, but your posts does not explain why the dollar is not rallying with US market, or why the Yen get stronger against the dollar when the rates are fixed at -0.1% for decades, and why in one post you say "directly affect" and second post "might" and "might not". your post about the 4 things you watch is correct, IF you're trading stocks, but not a direct affect on foreign exchange.
hello Kwt4x sorry for the delay
the US dollar and Japanese yen currency pair is the most difficult currency pair to trade..
there is no direct and permanent relationship between the US dollar index and the yen. In some cases, it has predictable behavior, and in other cases, the opposite..this behavior prediction becomes more difficult when we all know. the JPY is 13% component of the index.If you carefully compare the movement of the US dollar index and the Japanese yen, you will see what I mean..but If we look at the movement of the US 10-year bond and the movement of US stocks, we can have a better perspective on the movement of this currency pair..of course, this connection is more intense at times and less intense at times, but overall, they are interconnected and interdependent.
  • #92,537
  • Dec 20, 2025 6:16am Dec 20, 2025 6:16am
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} hello Kwt4x sorry for the delay the US dollar and Japanese yen currency pair is the most difficult currency pair to trade.. there is no direct and permanent relationship between the US dollar index and the yen. In some cases, it has predictable behavior, and in other cases, the opposite..this behavior prediction becomes more difficult when we all know. the JPY is 13% component of the index.If you carefully compare the movement of the US dollar index and the Japanese yen, you will see what I mean..but If we look at the movement of the US...
to explain the direct correlation between Dow and USDJPY, one needs to start from the U.S. dollar index and the Dow index enjoyed a relatively high correlation: over 46%..
what is the reason for the dollar to correlate with the American stock market? The answer comes from the differences in the world’s financial market. That is the interest rate differences..
look at the difference in interest rates between the 10-year US and 10-year Japanese government bonds.
Because the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve . to buy U.S. equities, one must pay with dollars..to pay in dollars, one needs to have them… or, borrow them..
Imagine you want to buy dollars to buy U.S. equities. the obvious answer is that you’ll borrow in the currency that pays the lowest possible interest rate. Right?
that’s why investors turned to the JPY (Japanese Yen).
that is why last week, as US interest rates fell and Japanese interest rates rose, we saw the Japanese yen fall against the US dollar.
  • #92,538
  • Edited 6:43am Dec 20, 2025 6:31am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} hello Kwt4x sorry for the delay the US dollar and Japanese yen currency pair is the most difficult currency pair to trade.. there is no direct and permanent relationship between the US dollar index and the yen. In some cases, it has predictable behavior, and in other cases, the opposite..this behavior prediction becomes more difficult when we all know. the JPY is 13% component of the index.If you carefully compare the movement of the US dollar index and the Japanese yen, you will see what I mean..but If we look at the movement of the US...
my turn to disagree

all bonds are interest rates related not currencies, the US interest rates peaked the last few years but the dollar still ranging.

the fact is, you're saying something and the charts saying something else, strong market and bonds while the dollar breaking 2y low's.

your fundamentals are working on stocks but not showing on currencies.

btw, you're only few years more than me in the markets, so I guess we both were placing orders by email at that era before online
the good old days when making manual P&F charts for long term analysis.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,539
  • Dec 20, 2025 6:36am Dec 20, 2025 6:36am
Quoting Zeusfleeky
{quote} This is the kind of knowledge people pay for you know, yet your here dishing it out for free. Such a great mind. Doing God's work. You are a better person than most. Spent a good portion of my early trading years getting trades from the forum and I always lost money not until I understood that it's just people giving personal opinions and it draws down to how you use that information to fit your money making. So I am happy seeing kind people who help us get better
"This is the kind of knowledge people pay for you know", you just made me greedy, now you owe me 1$ , it's all your fault, you brought this on yourself, so pay up
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #92,540
  • Dec 20, 2025 1:34pm Dec 20, 2025 1:34pm
All over my pay grade
https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/...yen-debasement
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