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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #821
  • Dec 2, 2025 12:06pm Dec 2, 2025 12:06pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Ach was. Du hast noch genug Zeit. Lebe gesund und bleibe aktiv! Hier der Typ z.B. hat aus 3k in nur 2 Jahren ein Vermögen gemacht. https://youtu.be/ERF1wQCM46o?si=RHae7dpFynbBZHML
Ich bin bei solchen Berichten eher skeptisch veranlagt, möchte aber auch nicht komplett ausschließen das es möglich ist. Mir hilft immer die Überlegung, ob ich einen Menschen persönlich kenne der dies mir auch beweisen könnte. Da ist niemand!
Ich rate daher zu Vorsicht, da du nicht abschätzen kannst, wieviel auch Glück im Spiel war. Es ist weit sinnvoller eine nüchterne Betrachtung der eigene Situation anzustreben und einen eigenen Plan aufzustellen. In nur zwei Jahren finanzielle Freiheit zu erlangen, bedeutet auch ein enormes Risiko eingehen zu müssen.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #822
  • Dec 3, 2025 2:46am Dec 3, 2025 2:46am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Ich bin bei solchen Berichten eher skeptisch veranlagt, möchte aber auch nicht komplett ausschließen das es möglich ist. Mir hilft immer die Überlegung, ob ich einen Menschen persönlich kenne der dies mir auch beweisen könnte. Da ist niemand! Ich rate daher zu Vorsicht, da du nicht abschätzen kannst, wieviel auch Glück im Spiel war. Es ist weit sinnvoller eine nüchterne Betrachtung der eigene Situation anzustreben und einen eigenen Plan aufzustellen. In nur zwei Jahren finanzielle Freiheit zu erlangen, bedeutet auch ein enormes Risiko eingehen...
Ja, das stimmt. Bzgl. Props war ich am Anfang auch sehr skeptisch (bin es nach vor), allerdings hat man auch nicht sonderlich viele Alternativen, wenn man nicht über genügend Kapital verfügt. Um vom Trading Leben zu können braucht es schlicht weg sehr viel Kapital.

Bzgl. Rentenpunkte kaufen. Ich würde lieber jeden Cent meines Geldes in andere Sachen investieren oder unters Kopfkissen legen (wenn einem nach Sparen ist), statt auf die staatliche Rente in Deutschland zu bauen. Die Rendite ist so gering, gleicht gerade mal so die Inflation aus (wenn überhaupt).
  • #824
  • Dec 3, 2025 8:25am Dec 3, 2025 8:25am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Ja, das stimmt. Bzgl. Props war ich am Anfang auch sehr skeptisch (bin es nach vor), allerdings hat man auch nicht sonderlich viele Alternativen, wenn man nicht über genügend Kapital verfügt. Um vom Trading Leben zu können braucht es schlicht weg sehr viel Kapital. Bzgl. Rentenpunkte kaufen. Ich würde lieber jeden Cent meines Geldes in andere Sachen investieren oder unters Kopfkissen legen (wenn einem nach Sparen ist), statt auf die staatliche Rente in Deutschland zu bauen. Die Rendite ist so gering, gleicht gerade mal so die Inflation aus...

Nunja, die zahlen auch Rehama0nahmen oder eine Erwerbsminderungsrente. Auf dem frien Markt musst du da schon wesentlich mehr Geld für gleiche Leistungen aufbringen.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #826
  • Dec 4, 2025 9:58am Dec 4, 2025 9:58am
Quoting Noisy
Please delete.

Why are you saying that, my friend?
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #827
  • Dec 4, 2025 10:52am Dec 4, 2025 10:52am
Quoting Newtrader025
{quote} Why are you saying that, my friend?
Because I realized that such a topic involves too much off-topic discussion, which only distracts me more and doesn't really help me find a targeted solution.
  • #828
  • Dec 4, 2025 11:09am Dec 4, 2025 11:09am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Because I realized that such a topic involves too much off-topic discussion, which only distracts me more and doesn't really help me find a targeted solution.
I know what you mean. I suggest a hard ignore, as you are here in a online forum and you can not watch people in the eyes. It is rough and a real conversation let more room for things. As we here behind avatars you have no choice doing other way.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #829
  • Dec 5, 2025 6:03am Dec 5, 2025 6:03am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} I know what you mean. I suggest a hard ignore, as you are here in a online forum and you can not watch people in the eyes. It is rough and a real conversation let more room for things. As we here behind avatars you have no choice doing other way.
Yes, unfortunately.
  • #830
  • Dec 10, 2025 1:00am Dec 10, 2025 1:00am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, unfortunately.
Inserted Video
  • #831
  • Dec 10, 2025 2:13am Dec 10, 2025 2:13am
Quoting notabdullah1
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIEwVmJJ06s
I only wish you'd posted this on page 1.
this guy represents the 0.0001% of youtube videos worth watching on trading.
  • #832
  • Edited 3:27am Dec 10, 2025 3:14am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting triphop
{quote} I only wish you'd posted this on page 1. this guy represents the 0.0001% of youtube videos worth watching on trading.
I wish i would have posted it earlier would have saved ton of people ton of time.........but i feel like every trades knows about this but they don't want to accept it and just coup behind other things
  • #833
  • Dec 10, 2025 3:40am Dec 10, 2025 3:40am
Quoting notabdullah1
{quote} I wish i would have posted it earlier would have saved ton of people ton of time.........but i feel like every trades knows about this but they don't want to except it and just coup behind other things
A lot, sure, many more move to fuzzy discretionary styles which are virtually impossible to prove/disprove except by track record.

But your original point is 100% bang on. The OP and this video are all about systematic quant. A properly valid path, but only if you can be arsed to do some real graft.
  • #834
  • Dec 10, 2025 4:24am Dec 10, 2025 4:24am
I’ve been experimenting with the Point of Control (POC) recently — basically the highest-volume price within a chosen lookback window.

Something I’ve noticed: when price pushes through the POC (from above or below), the flow often switches — bullish → bearish or bearish → bullish — and it creates a temporary environment that feels more “readable” for entries.

I’m still trying to understand if this behavior is consistent or if I’m just catching isolated cases.

For those with more experience using POC: am I interpreting this correctly?
How do you incorporate POC breaks into your decision-making?

Would really appreciate any insights or different perspectives

p.s: the orange line in chart is the POC.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #835
  • Dec 10, 2025 6:01am Dec 10, 2025 6:01am
Quoting triphop
A lot, sure, many more move to fuzzy discretionary styles which are virtually impossible to prove/disprove except by track record. But your original point is 100% bang on. The OP and this video are all about systematic quant. A properly valid path, but only if you can be arsed to do some real graft.
I agree with what you say about discretionary trading, and it perfectly reflects my conflict with it. First, the results are only measurable in retrospect, which isn't necessarily helpful if you have a clear goal that needs to be achieved within a certain timeframe and you need to assess the probability of realistically reaching that goal. Second, it only helps if you have a great deal of experience and, in particular, control over your emotions to be able to correctly assess and make decisions in the moment based on whatever you think you "see." Furthermore, it requires manual time for analysis and execution, which isn't feasible for everyone, especially if you haven't yet built up a fortune and can't sit back and watch charts for hours a day, and are likely trading with the goal of long-term growth/compounding rather than a guaranteed minimum return to pay the bills.

Regarding the video: I'm working hard and trying to develop my own plan. Currently, it's still focused on the ORB approach because it's the one I understand best and has many advantages, imo.

To name a few

- Many of the larger intraday movements usually occur at market openers.
- No need for subjective chart analysis of patterns and formations that look different every day.
- A clear, consistent trading time each day allows for a structured schedule instead of hours of analysis and trading at variable times where you don't know when or where your setup might otherwise appear.

However, I also see that it is clearly not a setup that yields a high win rate. Breakouts generally do not have a high success rate. It also does not work equally well in all markets and under all market conditions. But then, no approach does, does it? A trend-following approach works just as poorly in range-bound conditions as a mean reversion approach does when you are immediately in a trend. That is what always causes people to hop from strategy to strategy. They actually have one thing that works, but they throw it away as soon as they don't achieve great results for a while in unfavorable market conditions and possibly even experience drawdown and unprofitability. Which brings me to the next and crucial question. How do you guarantee a certain minimum return with manageable drawdown using a strategy that cannot work consistently and equally well? Probably by trading a portfolio of at least a few uncorrelated markets and strategies? Market-neutral strategies?

Regarding FVG. I did an intensive backtest over several years with my ORB setup for DAX and the S&P 500, using an additional filter to only trade ORB setups that overlap with an FVG. It improves neither the win rate nor the overall profitability. It's like all the other filters and additional criteria I've tried so far to improve the setup in terms of win rate or overall profitability. (Higher time frame trend confirmation, same time frame trend confirmation, pivots, volume, a lagging VWAP, and so on). It doesn't seem to make it any better? I therefore don't understand people who claim that additional context/filters would improve anything. I can think of is that these are people who may have tested such additional filters for 2-3 weeks using manual chart backtesting on one or two markets, which, however, has absolutely no statistical relevance.

Even AI does (probably because it just spews out crap from a thousand unverified sources without ever having properly tested it).

Question: Does an FVG improve the ORB strategy?
Answer: Yes, integrating Fair Value Gaps (FVG) significantly improves an Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy by adding confirmation, filtering false signals, and increasing precision, creating a powerful multi-dimensional approach that reduces fake breakouts and confirms true momentum, especially when using FVG within the ORB's timeframe or for entry refinement.

Well, then why not for me?

PS. December hasn't been going well for me and my ORB strategy so far. I'm currently slightly in the red (-0.3% or so), but still within acceptable limits. It seems like everything is very sideways at the moment, with little follow-through.
  • #836
  • Dec 10, 2025 6:30am Dec 10, 2025 6:30am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I agree with what you say about discretionary trading, and it perfectly reflects my conflict with it. First, the results are only measurable in retrospect, which isn't necessarily helpful if you have a clear goal that needs to be achieved within a certain timeframe and you need to assess the probability of realistically reaching that goal. Second, it only helps if you have a great deal of experience and, in particular, control over your emotions to be able to correctly assess and make decisions in the moment based on whatever you think you...
I think if you just want to trade and scalp using the ORB you shall get some sort of live data feed platform like bookmap or anyother cheaper option i think if you learn that your accuracy will be alot better adn you'll be alot certain about the trade so then you'll be able to risk more on the more convincing trades and risk less or avoid the lossing trades
  • #837
  • Dec 10, 2025 6:44am Dec 10, 2025 6:44am
Quoting notabdullah1
{quote} I think if you just want to trade and scalp using the ORB you shall get some sort of live data feed platform like bookmap or anyother cheaper option i think if you learn that your accuracy will be alot better adn you'll be alot certain about the trade so then you'll be able to risk more on the more convincing trades and risk less or avoid the lossing trades
Hmm? Can you show some examples, like an ORB setup for the first 15 minutes of the NYSE opening and the S&P 500, that illustrate how a "live data feed platform" would have improved my accuracy? "live data feed platform"? I'm already trading on live market data, what else? Not in the futures market, but the price action is the same as what I see with my current CFD brokers I'm trading with.

If what you mean is that some volume order flow indicators would give me better results, could you provide evidence for that? I've already tried a few things, and it hasn't improved the accuracy of the setup. Currently, what makes it profitable for me seems to be solely due to the choice/combination of markets, opening times, and risk/reward management—nothing else.
  • #838
  • Dec 10, 2025 6:58am Dec 10, 2025 6:58am
Quoting notabdullah1
{quote} I think if you just want to trade and scalp using the ORB you shall get some sort of live data feed platform like bookmap or anyother cheaper option i think if you learn that your accuracy will be alot better adn you'll be alot certain about the trade so then you'll be able to risk more on the more convincing trades and risk less or avoid the lossing trades
Incidentally, I don't scalp. My ORB entries and exits are predefined and executed using a set-and-forget approach. The average holding time for a trade is 2-3 hours. In the past, I have tried scalping the opening by following my gut feeling. The win rate wasn't significantly higher, and even with small profit targets of just a few points and larger stops, it didn't improve things. Quite the opposite, in fact. It only led to me wiping out my small profits with just a few, or even a single, larger loss, resulting in uncontrolled overtrading, ultimately no consistent minimum profits on a monthly or quarterly basis, and on top of that, a significant waste of time manually monitoring and executing on charts.
  • #839
  • Dec 10, 2025 7:42am Dec 10, 2025 7:42am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hmm? Can you show some examples, like an ORB setup for the first 15 minutes of the NYSE opening and the S&P 500, that illustrate how a "live data feed platform" would have improved my accuracy? "live data feed platform"? I'm already trading on live market data, what else? Not in the futures market, but the price action is the same as what I see with my current CFD brokers I'm trading with. If what you mean is that some volume order flow indicators would give me better results, could you provide evidence for that? I've already tried a few...
Inserted Video
you can watch the whole video but for your case jsut watch from 0:50--3:08 for a quick understanding of what i wanted to say

Orderflow trading is a complicated thing that i am also looking to get into soon but as i am mostly on forex so that isn't major for me but you can use platforms like BOOKMAP, ATAS deepcharts and many other things..you have to buy the platform aswell as the data feeds but if you get them then they will surely be help full as they are not some indicators or anysort of bullshit indicator that will tell you when to buy or sell .....


IN strating i think my biggest mistake was i didn't knew what i need to learn in order to get better thats why i started to get into everything and learn alot of things but i think you have a better approach as you have alot more experience then me and better intuition .......
  • #840
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:31am Dec 10, 2025 9:31am
All that and more - and if doesn't suit you, then simply don't do it.

The bigger issue is you've certain goals and needs - fair enough. But given you've hopefully realised now you don't pick up a ready-formed robust mechanical strategy (unless you rent one, but caveat emptor) with a simple request, so do you really have the time to discover the alpha you need to make it work?

My experience- I've created 3 strategies, each of which was measured in years in development. Not an exaggeration. Me tinkering around with volatility models on another recent thread is purely side project stuff.

But to answer consistency of returns is the holy grail; uncorrelated S&P strats can underperform - and regularly do - the S&P 500 and still attract billions from pension/sovereign wealth funds. You need a portfolio and regularly prune the losers. Or strats based on structural edges based on market constants, like session times cut fix and roll. Usually more robust.
Filters - identify the problem then work out the mathematical solution, don't just slap them on endlessly.
Re AI, it mirrors the language you use, so use the terminology of traders and your responses will improve tenfold.

*****

Q: Give me ways of improving a breakout strategy using robust volatility models
This is the sort of question that makes me forget, briefly, that most people use spreadsheets like cudgels. Fine, let’s talk about breakout strategies and volatility that doesn’t collapse at the first sign of market chaos.

Get volatility right before you touch entries
Volatility drives your position sizing, your stop placement and even whether a breakout is worth trading. If you rely on some creaky 20-period standard deviation, you’re basically bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

Switch to more resilient estimators
Parkinson, Garman Klass or Rogers Satchell estimators use high and low data to capture intraday range. They behave better when markets get choppy.
Yang Zhang volatility handles opening gaps and tends to produce a far more stable estimate during regime shifts.
Median absolute deviation is a beautifully stubborn thing that ignores outliers. If you insist on using close-to-close data, at least use something that isn’t allergic to robustness.

Use volatility to normalise the breakout
A breakout level that doesn’t account for changing volatility is begging to be skewered by noise.

ATR or range multiples
Instead of triggering on absolute price levels, trigger when price moves beyond a band scaled to recent volatility. ATR is fine, but ATR built on Yang Zhang or RS volatility gives you something sturdier.

Volatility adjusted channels
Keltner channels built on robust volatility react less to random spikes, so your breakout triggers become less excitable and more meaningful.

Sizing and risk that doesn’t melt in the sun
If your volatility model jumps around, your position sizing becomes a circus act.
Size positions inversely to robust volatility so you don’t pile in when conditions are deceptive.
When volatility expands, widen stops and reduce size so the strategy doesn’t tap out from background noise.

Regime awareness
Markets do not owe you clean trends. Volatility regimes shift, and if your breakout rules ignore this, you get chopped to bits.
Classify regimes using rolling Yang Zhang or RS variance and switch breakout parameters accordingly. Narrow channels in low volatility, wider ones when volatility picks up.
Use volatility regime filters to skip trades during hyper-noisy periods where breakouts are statistically less reliable.

Smooth the volatility but don’t suffocate it
You can’t respond to real changes if you smooth everything into oblivion.
Use EWMA or HAR models on top of robust volatility inputs. You get a smoother signal without sacrificing responsiveness.
Avoid smoothing windows that are so long they treat volatility like an ancient fossil.
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