USD/JPY Discussion

Took first profit at 114.13 for 50 pips.

In again at 114.40 after bounce off of resistance at 144.47. 114.00 should be tested again today, then S1.

G-Man

185 pips for the night GJ and UJ, tired of watchin the paint dry... good nite all, and good pippin.

Big up ak.

If you're done you're done but there's more to come!!

G-Man

I'm going to be different than the others and I will share my losing trade with you.

At 5:35 ET I opened long position because we closed above Weekly Central Pivot(most important on 15 min chart for the first time),we broke through some kind of triangle,Bollinger Bands opened,we closed above 21 EMA (on 5min chart)
As you can see there were a few factors which said LONG.

However it proved me that I was wrong.

Then,later,at 5:55 ET I saw what was happening and said to myself : well,maybe it is this journey to R1 from Daily Pivot Point,besides we broke and most important closed below 114.17 (which on my chart was previous low) on 5,15,30 and 1h timeframe.We closed also below 78.6% fib level (on previous transaction we had high at 61.4 so I presumed that these are reliable fibs) and you have even signal on Ichimoku to SELL.

Once again I was proved wrong.

I know that it is newbie mistake to turn around positions but I have some indicators,patterns and pivots along me and still I was wrong.

I'm asking you for advice : Did I miss something ?

You probably would say : you use too many indicators but I just want to have support from as much factors as it possible


P.S

As I'm writing this you see this massive long journey from 114.08 to 114.60 (on my chart) .....

.... now even 114.78

Retracement back to 114.67-77 Done.
Trip down south to test test 113.11 after NY opens?

PolishTrader,

Without a chart, it's hard to determine what went wrong with your trade.

But, you did forget to mention the most important thing in your trade and that is: What was price action at the time of your trade?

I've made that mistake so many times, I can't count. I get so lost in all the indicators, that I forget to see what the actual price action is and that's actually the most important thing. Try drawing trend lines and wait for the trendline break to confirm your indicators before actually making the trade. That may have been the problem.

Sorry that you lost, but it is a learning experience. I had a loss yesterday as well, even with a trendline break (now I trade the Eur/Jpy and not this pair, but a loss is a loss none-the-less). Sometimes, that's just the way it happens and you may not have done anything wrong. You have to just shake it off learn from the mistake, if any, and move on to the next setup.

Nancy

Short @ 114.75

PolishTrader,

I also lost alot yesterday. I was greedy for the pips, didn't wanna take a 20pip profit although my mind was saying take it. In the end, I was almost margin called twice and had a very very bad nite.. thankfully i went back to trading carefully and bearing in mind the news and analysis and indicators.. made a good rebound today.

Its all part of the learning experience as mentioned by nmpeters. I agree that price action is important.

Cheers and happy pippin.

http://www.michaelgwee.com/wp-conten...gust%201st.jpg

Trend seems to be on the downside. Plenty of buy/sell action on the trendline, we will need to see a firmer close below the trendline to push towards the next support level.

My 2 pips.:

-Rumoured emergency rate cute
-Retail Figures -0.7% first 2 weeks.

These could be the help we need to push through 114 tonite.

25mins Time:
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd will hold a news conference after his meeting with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Senator Dodd called this meeting to discuss the current financial-market situation and consider additional measures that might be required to restore stability in the mortgage market.


Anyone care to comment? I'm wondering what the senator can say and i'm really curious on the effect on the market.

careful on the shorts.

Stopped out 114.45
+30pips..

Short @ 114.55 after retracing 61.8%
+ no show on Senator Chris (Any of you guys could have given a better news conference)

HEY nmpeters,leachimeewg

I'm really thankfull for your nice words.
I guess it is as nmpeters said - sometimes that's just the way it happens

Here are the charts if someone is interested :

My 1st transaction :

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/8113/usdjpy2bj7.gif

The Up arrow shows were I opened my position.On this chart you see 21 EMA,weekly central pivot and this "triangle"


My 2nd transaction :

http://img501.imageshack.us/img501/1385/usdjpy3mb8.gif

I didn't put ichimoku on this chart because I didn't want it to be too messy (but there was bearish Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen cross on 5 min).We closed below previous low at 6 ET and 78.6%fib level

Once again I really appreciate your advices !

Hi polish,

Looking briefly at your charts I would say:

Trade 1: There is nothing wrong with your entry here on the basis of the triangle break, but I see no confirmation from that MA line. You can see after the break that the market was choppy so no wonder that you were stopped out.

Trade 2: I would say that you were too early on youe entry there. We can see the previous support at 113.99, and with a close at 114.06/07, it doesn't give much room for movement given the previous support. If you wanted to trade this I would have put a stop entry below the previous low. Also, there may be a head and shoulders pattern on that 5 min chart. Following the rules of that pattern the projected low would be near the low of your entry bar, suggesting that there may not be much more downside.

Hope this helps.

G-Man

PolishTrader,

You on a 60min chart?
i'm trying to find that space.. lol

15min chart.. bummer me.. ha ha.. gimme a min

PolishTrader,

1st Trade
I don't use make pivots for my trading so I can't help you there,
You can see that it seems Symmetrical Triangle pattern, but it can mean consolidation upwards or also a breakout.

At the same time on the Stochastics indicator, its in the middle of a downward cycle.

2nd Trade
Slightly early. I think you should have waited for the sustained break below the 114.05 before opening a short position.
similarly you can see that if think that that looks like a head and shoulders pattern, the support could also mark a uptrend move.

We see on the stochastics indicator that its pretty much oversold and as G-Man mentioned, not much downside.

Thanks G-man for you reply !

As for 1st trade I don't understand what you mean by "no confirmation from MA" - we closed above it,isn't it confirmation ?

As fo 2nd trade :

yeah you right - that could have been head and shoulders pattern but you know,Forex is such fast market - you are doing analysis but in the same time you see price action,you don't want to miss the move but on the other hand you have to be patient and reasonable .... it is hard to join all this factors in one.

I was thinking about R1 that I treat this 113.99/114.00 level as "not-important-soon-to-break"

lesson-learned

Thx once again !




leachimeewg - it is 5 min chart

If we speak about 1st trade then stochastic looked good and was at 50 level and if we speak about the 2nd then we had cross to the downside.

I'm only looking at stochastic when it is at 20/80 area because I believe that signals at other levels aren't as reliable.

But you have your day so I don't argue with you

Thx guys for reply - it helps me a lot.I can look on my trades from other perspective

Dude, I'm a always learning. Impact learning is one of the best ways to learn and not commit the same mistake again.

By the way, I think prefer to use the 30min and 1hr charts.. the smaller time frames make me very nervous.. lol...

good job dancing with the candles and channeling through price bounces.

May the pips be with you also

Thanks pipology, had a good day. controlled my game.. lol.. after yesterday's fiasco..

up +66 +30... open trade +30..

lol hard day work to make back the lost pips..

may the pips be with you my friend.

Polish Trader,

First of all, I, personally, don't usually trade from a 5 minute chart especially with the Yen crosses as they're too whippy.

Keep in mind that it's very easy to analyze this after the fact and I'm by no means criticizing your trade or claiming to be an expert.

By looking at your 1st chart, though, where you entered, your MA and your Pivot Point were a few pips within each other indicating strong resistance which is what happened. Price may have closed above the MA, but if you look further back, you'll notice that it wasn't having much luck getting too far past that point. In future, you may want to wait for a strong confirmation of price opening and closing above the pivot line before making your entry (especially since it was a strong weely pivot). You may end up leaving a few pips on the table, but it's better to miss a few pips than lose them.

The second chart, is a classic 1-2-3 bottom which is a strong reversal pattern. Also, it was a double bottom which the Yen currencies like to do before reversing. To top this off, price was hovering around the 100% Fib retracement level. So there was actually a lot of confluence within price action there to signal a price reversal.

Again, I'm not criticizing, just giving you some other options to look at before entering your trade. I hope this has helped.

Nancy