I am a new member of this forum. I actually looked for an FX discussion forum for the first time ever two days ago, and found this site, out of curiosity to know whether other traders perceived the current FX situation as being as extraordinary as it appears to me.
In essence, what I see now is that having traded GBPJPY and EURJPY and (later) AUDJPY down to their current levels, I am astonished that after such enormous drops, they look (most obviously GBPJPY) look as though they have a long way further to fall.
Logically, AUDJPY should drop faster than GBPJPY from here (since AUDGBP is only half way through its drop).
However, though it is obvious that AUDUSD will continue to fall a long way further than it has so far, I find it difficult to actually see on my charts any guarantees of how far AUDJPY will fall - whereas GPBJPY certainly looks as though it has a long way further to go.
Since cable will certainly continue to drop this week en route to 1.98-ish support at least, that provides some additional reassurance for staying short in GBPJPY in spot. In addition to my present spot short, I will tomorrow morning GMT take up a new, additional, 2 months' Put option as well.
Anyway... enough blab. My predictions for this week and the next few weeks are as follows:
GBPUSD: Stay short until 1.9865 - then I will re-evaluate, to see whether it really can break through the support in that area. If it does, then we're looking at a vast further fall after that.
AUDUSD: I've been short all the way down from 0.8810 - and will not only stay short, but will (very unusually for me after a large fall) actually increase my short position as soon as the market opens tonight with a 1 month, and a 2 month Put option at market price. (The premium for these Put options is more modest than many of the other obvious alternative Puts).
EURUSD: This will continue to fall to support around 1.3400 at least. At that point, there should be a bounce before any further fall... however, looking at my charts, I suspect any such bounce will be short-lived.
GBPJPY: I've been short all the way down from around 248.90...(before I joined this forum). Normally, I would be taking profit after such a large drop - but I'm not only going to stay short, but will buy a one month and two month Put option at market price as soon as the market opens tonight - assuming the premiums don't grow dramatically from their last Friday evening levels.
EURJPY: Taking half my profit on market opening. I've been short all the way down on this cross - though not as much as I was on GBPJPY and AUDJPY - and I'm taking half of my profit as soon as market opens, I think. It is not that I think this cross is going to rise (I don't - and logically, it cannot, if GBPJPY continues to drop hard, as it appears it will). Nevertheless, I should take some profit on my carry trades - and since AUDEUR still has further to drop, I will take the profits on this one.
AUDJPY: Stay short. I sold this all the way down as well, after waiting in frustration for it to follow the other carry trades down the week before last. Eventually, AUDEUR dropped hard, and AUDJPY at last has come down. Since AUDEUR and AUDGBP still a way further to drop, AUDJPY should be a better sell than GBPJPY.... but though it will certainly continue to drop, I find it difficult to see where the target is. However, it's certainly a safe continued short for another 200 pips or so.. and then we'll see.
Those are my trades / predictions. Let's see what happens!
In essence, what I see now is that having traded GBPJPY and EURJPY and (later) AUDJPY down to their current levels, I am astonished that after such enormous drops, they look (most obviously GBPJPY) look as though they have a long way further to fall.
Logically, AUDJPY should drop faster than GBPJPY from here (since AUDGBP is only half way through its drop).
However, though it is obvious that AUDUSD will continue to fall a long way further than it has so far, I find it difficult to actually see on my charts any guarantees of how far AUDJPY will fall - whereas GPBJPY certainly looks as though it has a long way further to go.
Since cable will certainly continue to drop this week en route to 1.98-ish support at least, that provides some additional reassurance for staying short in GBPJPY in spot. In addition to my present spot short, I will tomorrow morning GMT take up a new, additional, 2 months' Put option as well.
Anyway... enough blab. My predictions for this week and the next few weeks are as follows:
GBPUSD: Stay short until 1.9865 - then I will re-evaluate, to see whether it really can break through the support in that area. If it does, then we're looking at a vast further fall after that.
AUDUSD: I've been short all the way down from 0.8810 - and will not only stay short, but will (very unusually for me after a large fall) actually increase my short position as soon as the market opens tonight with a 1 month, and a 2 month Put option at market price. (The premium for these Put options is more modest than many of the other obvious alternative Puts).
EURUSD: This will continue to fall to support around 1.3400 at least. At that point, there should be a bounce before any further fall... however, looking at my charts, I suspect any such bounce will be short-lived.
GBPJPY: I've been short all the way down from around 248.90...(before I joined this forum). Normally, I would be taking profit after such a large drop - but I'm not only going to stay short, but will buy a one month and two month Put option at market price as soon as the market opens tonight - assuming the premiums don't grow dramatically from their last Friday evening levels.
EURJPY: Taking half my profit on market opening. I've been short all the way down on this cross - though not as much as I was on GBPJPY and AUDJPY - and I'm taking half of my profit as soon as market opens, I think. It is not that I think this cross is going to rise (I don't - and logically, it cannot, if GBPJPY continues to drop hard, as it appears it will). Nevertheless, I should take some profit on my carry trades - and since AUDEUR still has further to drop, I will take the profits on this one.
AUDJPY: Stay short. I sold this all the way down as well, after waiting in frustration for it to follow the other carry trades down the week before last. Eventually, AUDEUR dropped hard, and AUDJPY at last has come down. Since AUDEUR and AUDGBP still a way further to drop, AUDJPY should be a better sell than GBPJPY.... but though it will certainly continue to drop, I find it difficult to see where the target is. However, it's certainly a safe continued short for another 200 pips or so.. and then we'll see.
Those are my trades / predictions. Let's see what happens!
