Trading for a living | Page 36 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

Attachments: Trading for a living
Exit Attachments

Trading for a living

  • #701
  • Nov 24, 2025 6:35am Nov 24, 2025 6:35am
Quoting medici
{quote} It's good to see you learning things And while you are perhaps juggling too many things when it comes to learning, you are remarkably one-eyed with you trading ambitions, it seems. Portfolios of algos beat single algos any day for someone with your requirements. And the Swiss provider you are referring to looks like a good start for building a portfolio. But of course you would have to do your own research about this.
Thanks. Yes, that would probably work best for me. I don't rule out manual trading per se, but I can't seem to find any really well-explained strategies that are particularly suitable for my limited daily time available, given the rather short-term oriented need to achieve a repeatable minimum return with a manageable drawdown.
  • #702
  • Nov 24, 2025 6:48am Nov 24, 2025 6:48am
ChatGPT Q&A session.

"It is generally assumed that trading systems only function well under specific market conditions, such as trending, ranging, and volatile markets, but these conditions can only be identified in retrospect. Is there no strategy that can sustainably achieve a consistent minimum return per month with a single strategy, regardless of varying market conditions, and if so, what would that strategy be?"

Short answer: no single trading strategy is known to sustainably produce a consistent minimum monthly return across all market conditions, and there are deep structural reasons for this. But there are ways to engineer systems that approximate this goal—though never with guaranteed, fixed monthly returns.

Below is the clearest breakdown of why the “one strategy for all markets” does not exist, followed by the closest possible real-world solutions.

Why No Single Strategy Can Guarantee Steady Monthly Returns Across Regimes

1. Market regimes shift in ways that are not predictable

Trends, volatility, liquidity, correlations, and microstructure conditions all change over time.
A single system optimized to exploit one type of structure (trend-following, mean-reversion, breakout, volatility compression, etc.) inevitably performs poorly when that structure disappears.

2. A fixed return target implies arbitrage (which doesn’t exist)

A consistent “minimum monthly return” implies:

  1. the market reliably provides enough inefficiency every month
  2. your strategy remains protected from variance/drawdowns
  3. you can size positions without hitting risk limits

Markets don’t support this. Returns are probabilistic; risk is the only constant.

3. Stationarity is an illusion

Most traditional quant assumptions (normally distributed returns, constant volatility, stable relationships between assets) are false in real markets.
A strategy that works in one statistical environment deteriorates when the distribution shifts.

4. Competition erodes edges

Once a strategy becomes widely used, edge decays (execution cost, slippage, information leakage).

So… What Gets Closest to Consistent Returns?

There are three categories of approaches that come closest to robustness across market regimes.
None is perfect, but together they reveal the path.

1. Multi-Strategy / Multi-Regime Systems (the closest realistic solution)

Not one strategy — but one unified system composed of orthogonal strategies that each perform in different market conditions:

  1. trend-following
  2. mean reversion
  3. breakout/momentum
  4. volatility harvesting
  5. statistical arbitrage
  6. carry strategies
  7. option premium selling (with hedges)
  8. long–short factor models
  9. intraday microstructure edges

The idea is:

"1 meta-strategy" = many uncorrelated sub-strategies blended into a single engine.

This is how many professional hedge funds maintain smoother return streams.

You are not predicting conditions—you are diversifying across them.

This is the closest the real world gets to a “single strategy that works everywhere.”

2. Volatility-targeting Portfolio of Strategic Edges

Instead of trying to extract the same nominal return each month, robust systems target:

  1. a stable risk level (volatility)
  2. and accept the return that comes from it

This approach is widely used because:

  1. trading edges vary but risk can be smoothed
  2. volatility targeting naturally reduces exposure during crashes and increases it during calm periods

It won’t guarantee a minimum monthly return, but it dramatically stabilizes the path of returns.

3. Option-Based Income / Risk-Premium Harvesting (with hedges)

Selling options (short premium):

  1. can generate consistent income
  2. benefits from time decay (theta)
  3. works in many market environments

But: unhedged, this strategy blows up occasionally.

The sustainable version is hedged premium selling, using structures like:

  1. iron condors
  2. calendars
  3. put spreads
  4. hedged strangles
  5. delta-neutral volatility trades

This can produce relatively smooth returns, but not guaranteed minimums.

Why there is no guaranteed-minimum-return strategy

To achieve a fixed minimum return each month, you would need a system that:

  1. Works in any volatility regime
  2. Works in any liquidity regime
  3. Works in trend, chop, crash, melt-up
  4. Has predictable payoff
  5. Has limited downside
  6. Is capacity-unconstrained

A system satisfying all six conditions would be equivalent to:

persistent arbitrage with no risk.

Such strategies do not exist at scale because:

  1. arbitrage is competed away
  2. liquidity is not constant
  3. markets can remain irrational longer than any system can survive margined drawdowns
  4. correlations spike during crises, breaking diversification

So what would the closest thing look like?

A realistic, sustainable “all-weather” trading system would combine:

1. Trend-following (for persistent moves)
2. Mean-reversion (for range-bound periods)
3. Volatility harvesting (intraday or options-based)
4. Statistical arbitrage or cross-sectional edges
5. Risk and volatility targeting
6. Dynamic position sizing (not based on prediction, but on realized volatility and drawdowns)
7. Diversification across markets, timeframes, and instruments

This is not one strategy.
It is one integrated machine containing many orthogonal edges.

And that is the sustainable, realistic path.

If you want, I can build you:

  1. a blueprint for a multi-regime trading system
  2. pseudocode / python code
  3. statistical expectations
  4. backtesting methodology
  5. risk management design
  6. recommended components for each regime

  • #703
  • Nov 24, 2025 8:10am Nov 24, 2025 8:10am
Quote
no single trading strategy is known to sustainably produce a consistent minimum monthly return across all market conditions

As we know AI is full of crap sometimes. Lets use our own minds.

Minimum daily move on gold over last 300 days is 37 points. That's a minimum.
As day trader, can you take 1 point out of that move majority of days ?
Maybe you can even manage to take 3 points, its less than 10% of daily move on worst day.
I would say yes. If not then person is bad day trader.

Last 14 month data 30 minute ranges in points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 5 KB

Making 1 point day on average should not be impossible goal.

Trading futures mini contract 1 point move = $ 100
Rest is up how big of position you can handle, or do you decide to trade your own money or other people money.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #704
  • Edited 11:33am Nov 24, 2025 10:46am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting Mandariin
Making 1 point day on average should not be impossible goal.
Well, even less volatile markets like the S&P 500, or in the Forex market, let's say EUR/USD, have a certain minimum daily range. Virtually every market does. Back then, I thought similarly. A small daily target, consistently achieving it, and you're a winner. Easier said than done. The question isn't how much you can make in a day, but how much you're willing to lose (the only thing which you can at least control to some extent - if your stop orders are respected by the broker/market, no slippage, no black swan events).

An example. At the time, I tried my London Breakout approach, focusing on it for 2-3 hours using discretionary trading and manual execution. My target was 5 pips a day and watching/trading only GBP/USD 5 days a week. It typically moves at least 60 pips a day even on less volatile days and during holiday periods. So it should be "easy" (or so I thought). I would "only" need to extract 8.3% of the movement for myself from it.

Now where do you place your stop-loss? Do you even place one? How many orders are you going to place every day as a maximum or no limits? If you use, say, a positive risk/reward ratio of 1:2, you'd have to set your stop-loss at -2.5 pips. You'd have to be a superhero to hit that with just one trade EVERY day and not only that but doing so for ALL 21 days of the month and for ALL 250 days of the year. GBP/USD will fluctuate 2.5 Pips in the blink of an eye. Gold probably even way more. A sudden news events? An unannounced tweet from Trump? Boom, you're down perhaps -150 Pips in a nano second.

The reality is that you might get stopped out 10 times on Monday morning before you even manage to enter positive territory once, let alone your daily target. By that time, you'll might be already down -25 pips, and to reach your daily target, you'll now have to make at least a +30 Pips (-25 + 5). So what do you do then? Ending the day in the red or having no loss limit and continuing to try for an unpredictable period of time, possibly even ending the day at -100 pips?

Every trading book in the world will tell you that chasing profit targets doesn't work and is a recipe for disaster (but yeah, maybe they're all wrong). And even if that were the case and you could do it, what would you do if you were sick or wanted to go on vacation? How would you then earn the necessary minimum number of points per day that you NEED if you HAVE to pay the bills at the end of a month or quarter from it? Having a well paid job on the side, other sources of income? Well i don't have that. I want/need to make trading my only source of full time income to make a living from and not only that, but also to build up a pension from it. So you HAVE to perform - no paycheck for your time alone and certainly no paycheck if you are sick.

Feel free to create a Trade Explorer and show me how you manage to make 1 point (net after fees) every day in Gold (or any other market). With the right position size, that would practically be all you need to print money (say +1 Point = +1%/+$1000 on your trading capital in the account). Please also show how much you risked each day and do this for at least 21 days with at least one trade per day. I'm curious to see what the maximum drawdown will be (the amount of negative points at any given moment in time) and whether you reached the +21 points (+21%/+$21000).
  • #705
  • Nov 24, 2025 11:35am Nov 24, 2025 11:35am
Quote
...even less volatile markets...

Is trader goal to make money ? Or look for a challenge and trade the hardest low volatile markets ?
Why make trading harder that it already is ? For EGO ?
I squeezed $ 1000 out low volatility trading instrument that barely moved today - I am a man ?

Quote
...do you place your stop-loss? Do you even place one ...

Trading with sound strategy with market structure based targets and stops.
Take only 10% of daily move is doable for good day traders. And why can't we get good at it ?
Lot of chart time and we become one.

Getting stopped 10 times in row, isn't it telling you something ? For me - stops is in wrong place, its too small.

Every trading book ? Are all these books written by successful traders.
You know most successful traders don't write books, they trade.
Again we are not chasing. Taking only 10% its low hanging fruit as they say.

I can't call myself profitable trader yet but I am every close to it. One more year and I will become 10 year overnight success.

Not enough data, but we can ask questions:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB

09:00 this one hour before London market open. Should I stop trading before London open ? Yes is wrong answer. I need to dig deeper. Is price action before London open choppy, or I am eager to trade , or my market read is off ?
10:00 Is my best trading. Most trades and best win %. Should I use bigger position size ?
Should I stop trading after 12:00 ? Lot of hours traded for basically nothing +$100. Or am I just tired and need to re-charge ?

I already made one correction , trade time 10-17 and lunch break between 12-14.
I have journal , you can follow my journey ( if interested you know how to find it )
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #706
  • Edited 1:00pm Nov 24, 2025 12:45pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Is trader goal to make money ? Or look for a challenge and trade the hardest low volatile markets ? Why make trading harder that it already is ? For EGO ? I squeezed $ 1000 out low volatility trading instrument that barely moved today - I am a man ? {quote} Trading with sound strategy with market structure based targets and stops. Take only 10% of daily move is doable for good day traders. And why can't we get good at it ? Lot of chart time and we become one. Getting stopped 10 times in row, isn't it telling you something ? For me - stops...
As I said, I've been down this path myself for years, and it hasn't brought me any closer to a repeatable minimum income with a certain maximum time commitment and risk. I don't know where you are in your life, whether your intention is to finance a living from trading, how much capital you have available, time, etc. If you have a solution for how I can achieve +1 point / +1% / +$1000 per day in any market with a maximum of 4 hours of trading per day and a maximum of -0.1 point / -0.10% / -$100 floating loss at any time, by following a clearly defined plan/strategy, please let me know. I don't look at any trading journals here anymore, as I said, I don't have enough time for it and I'm not getting any younger, but if you have a track record for 6 months that demonstrably proves something like this, I would be delighted.

So far my own track record is +16.4% (say +16.4 Points or +$16,400) under a max. drawdown of -5.3% (say -5.3 Points or -$5,300) in 64 days. So for September and October I would have reached my personal goal of min. +2%/month under -10% of max. drawdown. However barely 3 months is nothing and I might just have been on a lucky streak with it.
  • #707
  • Nov 24, 2025 1:07pm Nov 24, 2025 1:07pm
Inserted Video
  • #708
  • Nov 24, 2025 1:18pm Nov 24, 2025 1:18pm
Quoting Noisy
ChatGPT Q&A session. "It is generally assumed that trading systems only function well under specific market conditions, such as trending, ranging, and volatile markets, but these conditions can only be identified in retrospect. Is there no strategy that can sustainably achieve a consistent minimum return per month with a single strategy, regardless of varying market conditions, and if so, what would that strategy be?" Short answer: no single trading strategy is known to sustainably produce a consistent minimum monthly return across all market conditions,...
I've been looking into quantifying regimes, trend and range to see how long on average they last for with the goal of anticipating a shift into a new phase. I think it involves analyzing time, most systems focus on price only.
  • #709
  • Nov 24, 2025 2:14pm Nov 24, 2025 2:14pm
Quoting Kas1
{quote} I've been looking into quantifying regimes, trend and range to see how long on average they last for with the goal of anticipating a shift into a new phase. I think it involves analyzing time, most systems focus on price only.
Without considering time, it's pointless.

Let's say you look at any chart since the market began trading, the entire historical data. You'll have a bottom and a top. You could say that the market has been in a "range" since it started trading. Then you could zoom in and perhaps discover a trend within that range. Then you could zoom in further within that trend and perhaps see another range, and so on.

Fun fact: The person next to you with only a 15-inch monitor and higher chart zoom might see a range at the same time that you, with your 65-inch monitor and lower zoom, have already identified 10 trends...

Therefore, I've given up trying to analyze (understand) charts. It's incredibly subjective and boring for me, and at the end of your analysis, all you can say is that, according to YOUR interpretation, something was in a trend or sideways phase for X amount of time in the past. Then even worst, show your analysis another trader and he/she will tell you „Oh how couldn’t you see this or that - you did it all wrong“…

My conclusion

A) Accept the fact you can’t predict the market condition and that your strategy won’t perform well under all conditions but might still perform well enough to leave you at your desired profit target under x risk in x time overall.
B) Try to predict things and build a strategy for each regime and only execute a trending strategy in a trending market, a mean-reversion strategy in sideways market and so on (but again, very subjective without pre-defining such environment according to at least some repeatable rules and taking into account time)
C) Become a Broker and make money from all the traders trying to solve this puzzle by charging a fixed spread and commission regardless of what the f&c1 anyone is doing or thinking about the market…
  • #710
  • Nov 24, 2025 4:03pm Nov 24, 2025 4:03pm
Something that everybody knows but yet maybe its beneficial to be here as reminder: I’m not trying to label regimes or predict anything — just noticing that certain hours seem to produce cleaner movement compared to others. For example, when I was focusing on the London session and especially the London–New York overlap, the price action felt more structured and less random to me. Outside of that window, especially during very quiet Asian hours, I personally ran into more chop and fake starts.
I’m not saying this is any kind of edge or strategy, just something I used to ignore. I would treat all times of day the same and take trades whenever I “felt” the setup was there. But paying attention to sessions helped me avoid trading during hours that statistically offered less movement or more noise.
  • #711
  • Nov 24, 2025 4:47pm Nov 24, 2025 4:47pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Without considering time, it's pointless. Let's say you look at any chart since the market began trading, the entire historical data. You'll have a bottom and a top. You could say that the market has been in a "range" since it started trading. Then you could zoom in and perhaps discover a trend within that range. Then you could zoom in further within that trend and perhaps see another range, and so on. Fun fact: The person next to you with only a 15-inch monitor and higher chart zoom might see a range at the same time that you, with your...
In my opinion it's all about quantifying the preferred frequency. Everyone will pick their own and I don't think that it matters too much if its logical. If you can measure the past ranges/trends/swings etc. and create an average amount of time they last for and have this number rolling in the last x phases than you can start to have some kind of expectation to when it's supposed to end. I've found fractals to be a good base for this approach because they behave the same way on all timeframes. Being adaptive to the latest volatility and still systematic is important to try and find some consistency. I think its one of the biggest problems people face, you identify a trend and then it's at or close to end and same with ranges or whatever. I think you need to pick a certain frequency and stick with it and market will roll in and out of sync with it no matter what it is. Just my thoughts
  • #712
  • Nov 25, 2025 3:41am Nov 25, 2025 3:41am
Quoting Kas1
{quote} In my opinion it's all about quantifying the preferred frequency. Everyone will pick their own and I don't think that it matters too much if its logical. If you can measure the past ranges/trends/swings etc. and create an average amount of time they last for and have this number rolling in the last x phases than you can start to have some kind of expectation to when it's supposed to end. I've found fractals to be a good base for this approach because they behave the same way on all timeframes. Being adaptive to the latest volatility and...
KAS1 has it nailed! EACH time frame has its OWN FREQUENCY - That frequency sets the SIZE of the SWING/Volatility - that swing file is the FRACTAL and they all fit neatly inside each other

The following examples are NOT set to the correct frequency, but you can see even with incorrect settings you can still make some pretty accurate calls

So on this 1st chart we have 2 swing files running, covering EVERY swing up and down for a period of the past 15 years - the size of the swing file determines the calcs/predictions

(15 years is way too long to run this in the real world - this is just an example - if you cover too much time then you'll get obsolete swings used in the calc caused by cycles that might not be applicable in todays market)

The VERTICAL DOTTED line = the point/swing from which the calcs/prediction are made from

We were looking for a swing HIGH prediction in BOTH Time & Price - based solely off the past 15 years worth of swings of that particular size

I can tell you from 15 years of applying this technique, it is NOT exact, but it gives you certain parameters from which you can apply trading methods from

So on the chart we projected from the past 15 years worth of price swings - 1) TIME expectation of the HIGH (Bottom Indicator window shows the time zone and dates) and 2) Price zone on the right hand side of the chart - both based off the SIZE/frequency of the swing file selected

The greyed out zones are the overlaps and highest probability target areas - overall they both cover a wide zone and show you that even relying on price swings isn't an exact science

As you can see time was circa 2 months off, price was a bit better placed

The POINT is and was - we had something tangible that we could work with and within that overall assumption, you could of quite easily of traded the trends within trends of the move etc

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1718.JPG Size: 167 KB

This is just a zoomed in view

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1719.JPG Size: 154 KB



So - this is the current picture of the DAILY time-frame chart [chart below]

I've moved the marker from which the swing prediction starts - its based off the red and green swing file - Price is crazy wide zone, Time is more realistic

What you would of done here [not shown] as well was run a swing file projection based on the bright blue higher sized swing file, from the last bright blue swing high, to get a price and time zone for a low based off that sized swing, then you can watch the red/green swings to see if they top out and reverse etc - because "IF" price and time HAVE to move to the bright blue sized swing file, then so do all the lesser sized swing files! and that my friends is what causes TRENDS

I've previously mentioned CYCLES - the CYCLES CAUSE the swing file termination points

But Again - Price has been down, from the swing high and the point is being positioned in the DIRECTION of the TREND/CYCLE - you don't need all of the move, just a healthy bit of it - Without showing the lower time-frames, its a certainty that on some time-frame a TREND DOWNWARDS formed, that people could of very easily traded to their advantage or even trading the super stupidly simple method I showed on the early pages of this thread!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1720.JPG Size: 148 KB


Then from there, you can devise methods of identifying when the swing has terminated and should reverse etc - I'll leave that one for the trader to figure out
  • #713
  • Edited 6:49am Nov 25, 2025 6:37am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting Thtpro
KAS1 has it nailed! EACH time frame has its OWN FREQUENCY
Hey there. Hope you're doing well.

Yes, every time frame has its own frequency, just as every market probably has its own unique characteristics. Personally, I find it too difficult to deal with all that. I simply can't derive anything concrete from it that would help me achieve a specific goal with a clearly defined level of risk and time commitment that I am willing to accept.

The thread has been around for a while now, and I still haven't found any really effective help on how to create a precise trading plan for myself that takes into account a clear strategy with clear rules, risk management, and time commitment that are necessary to achieve my goal of a repeatable minimum income per month or at least per quarter.

In the nearly 20 years I've been following this forum, I haven't been able to identify a single person with a clear strategy who has consistently demonstrated a certain minimum performance month after month and year after year, while adhering to a specific maximum risk, time commitment, and trading capital. I'm starting to get the feeling that such people simply don't exist.

The ORB system is currently still the "best" one I have and, at least so far, shows profitable results, even if it may not yet be sufficient to sustainably achieve the minimum performance I would need. It may well be that this system does not work equally well under all market conditions, everyday. The question I ask myself is: does it have to? Isn't it enough if a system achieves the required minimum performance overall despite bad days, even if it may result in several losing trades or consecutive losing days? As long as it achieves the required minimum return at the end of my required time period, isn't that all that matters? You can't always be right. Probably not even with discretionary trading and no time or risk limits.

I really hope I can make some more progress by the end of the year; otherwise, I'll probably give up trading altogether soon. It's just not fun anymore. I'm not getting any younger, and I HAVE to be able to generate a recurring minimum income to be able to live off something and finally improve my financial situation while all my friends and family have a rather good life from their steady-paying jobs and who spend less time on it than I do on a daily base.
  • #714
  • Edited 7:37am Nov 25, 2025 6:54am | Edited 7:37am
Inserted Code
...clear and precise trading plan...

Can you find perfection in market ?
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #715
  • Nov 25, 2025 7:04am Nov 25, 2025 7:04am
[quote=Noisy;15483514]{quote} Hey there. Hope you're doing well. Yes, every time frame has its own frequency, just as every market probably has its own unique characteristics. Personally, I find it too difficult to deal with all that. I simply can't derive anything concrete from it that would help me achieve a specific goal with a clearly defined level of risk and time commitment that I am willing to accept. The thread has been around for a while now, and I still haven't found any really effective help on how to create a precise trading plan for myself that takes into account a clear strategy with clear rules, risk management, and time commitment that are necessary to achieve my goal of a repeatable minimum income per month or at least per quarter. In the nearly 20 years I've been following this forum, I haven't been able to identify a single person with a clear strategy who has consistently demonstrated a certain minimum performance month after month and year after year, while adhering to a specific maximum risk, time commitment, and trading capital. I'm starting to get the feeling that such people simply don't exist. The ORB system is currently still the "best" one I have and, at least so far, shows profitable results, even if it may not yet be sufficient to sustainably achieve the minimum performance I would need. It may well be that this system does not work equally well under all market conditions, everyday. The question I ask myself is: does it have to? Isn't it enough if a system achieves the required minimum performance overall despite bad days, even if it may result in several losing trades or consecutive losing days? As long as it achieves the required minimum return at the end of my required time period, isn't that all that matters? You can't always be right. Probably not even with discretionary trading and no time or risk limits. I really hope I can make some more progress by the end of the year; otherwise, I'll probably give up trading altogether soon. It's just not fun anymore. I'm not getting any younger, and I HAVE to be able to generate a recurring minimum income to be able to live off something and finally improve my financial situation while all my friends and family have a rather good life from their steady-paying jobs and who spend less time on it than I do on a daily base.[/quote

Seems youv'e tried almost everything. Why dont you try the basics, learn to read a chart and maybe only trade Impulse, Correction, Impulse
  • #716
  • Nov 25, 2025 12:16pm Nov 25, 2025 12:16pm
Quoting T721
Why dont you try the basics, learn to read a chart and maybe only trade Impulse, Correction, Impulse
Thanks. Yes, that sounds good at first, but my problem is that such general terms don't really help me create a concrete trading plan that takes my personal circumstances and goals into account. The complete context is missing.

I could just as easily say: "Trade with the trend," "Trade breakouts," "Trade momentum," "Trade news," "Trade Arbitrage," etc.

A simple Google search for "Impulse, Correction, Impulse trading" yields approximately 6,080,000 results.

If I were to look at all of that myself again, I wouldn't be any further along in a million years; there are probably another 6 million different ways I could interpret and apply this type of trading approach. None of it tells me exactly what I need and how to implement it so that it also meets my requirements for a certain maximum risk and maximum time expenditure.

Let me reiterate my requirements and goals.

Time
I cannot and do not want to invest more than a maximum of 4 hours per day, either at the start of the London or the New York market opening. Time is limited. I've already spent enough time and I want to finally live from trading, not FOR trading.

Maximum risk
I don't want to be exposed to more than a 10% maximum drawdown at any time. These are also the limits that most prop trading firms set.

Required return
To make a living from trading, assuming I can find enough capital, for example through a prop trading firm, I need a minimum return of 2% per month.

Whether the approach is manual or automated, it should be absolutely clear when and how I have to do what, leaving no room for guesswork.
  • #717
  • Nov 25, 2025 6:18pm Nov 25, 2025 6:18pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thanks. Yes, that sounds good at first, but my problem is that such general terms don't really help me create a concrete trading plan that takes my personal circumstances and goals into account. The complete context is missing. I could just as easily say: "Trade with the trend," "Trade breakouts," "Trade momentum," "Trade news," "Trade Arbitrage," etc. A simple Google search for "Impulse, Correction, Impulse trading" yields approximately 6,080,000 results. If I were to look at all of that myself again, I wouldn't be any further along in...

Simple, move UP in time frame. All problems fixed except being patient.
When you don't know where your going, any road will take you there.
  • #718
  • Edited Nov 26, 2025 1:11am Nov 25, 2025 6:50pm | Edited Nov 26, 2025 1:11am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thanks. Yes, that sounds good at first, but my problem is that such general terms don't really help me create a concrete trading plan that takes my personal circumstances and goals into account. The complete context is missing. I could just as easily say: "Trade with the trend," "Trade breakouts," "Trade momentum," "Trade news," "Trade Arbitrage," etc. A simple Google search for "Impulse, Correction, Impulse trading" yields approximately 6,080,000 results. If I were to look at all of that myself again, I wouldn't be any further along in...
Hi Noisy

The best professional Future traders can’t make money everyday, that’s not how they think about this game.
The top guys look for prefect setups then throw 100% of their allocated leverage on that setup and rack in 6 to 7 figure profits on that one trade.
Where were you on Thursday when the NQ and ES collapsed and were dumped by institutional firms. This was the day you make your entire profit for the month.
It just take 1 prefect setup a month and your kill it.
That Sell off was the prefect setup.

I make 28% increase on my equity on that day.

The secret is you have to be watching the market all morning on every trading day of the year - missed that 1 setup and your’e make very little that month or year.

A guy at Axia Futures (Institutional firm) had a prefect setup which took 4 years to show up. On that day he was at a funeral and missed it by 15 minutes. It occurred again the following year lucky for hiim and he made a few million dollars. The following year that setup occurred about 4 time in two months and he became a 8 figure trader.

One prefect setup, your entire years income in one move.

That one prefect setup probably needs to be one you discover yourself and that no Algorithm program is yet coded to fight your A++++ setup.

My personal secret setup without going into details is a move that’s either +1000 or -1000 Delta on a particular market that has extremely high volume and price is sitting above or below ……………………….a particular event.
That was the case on Thursday.

The result means I don’t have to trade till mid January but it doesn’t mean I won’t be watching the markets. I’ll be there just taking a hand full of trades every day that may make me some extra money. I’ll really watching for that next big trade which may occur tonight, or some random day in the next few months.
I have no fucking clue when that great setup will occur again but if I am not there, I can’t trade it.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #719
  • Edited 2:59am Nov 26, 2025 2:33am | Edited 2:59am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thanks. Yes, that sounds good at first, but my problem is that such general terms don't really help me create a concrete trading plan that takes my personal circumstances and goals into account. The complete context is missing. I could just as easily say: "Trade with the trend," "Trade breakouts," "Trade momentum," "Trade news," "Trade Arbitrage," etc. A simple Google search for "Impulse, Correction, Impulse trading" yields approximately 6,080,000 results. If I were to look at all of that myself again, I wouldn't be any further along in...
It seems you like to look more for excesses than solutions.
My 1st trade today at London open is basically based on impulse - correction - impulse.
No need to over complicated it. In uptrend impulse leg is longer and correction leg is shorter.
Ideally I like to correction leg to stop at resistance to support level but close enough is good enough.
Yes I know you like clear and precise rules but can you fit the market it the box (=acts always according to your rules without any deviation) ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 21 KB
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
0 traders viewing now