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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #92,021
  • Nov 19, 2025 1:37pm Nov 19, 2025 1:37pm
Hedging my sells with some buys, the weekly looks very bullish though nearing its end.
  • #92,022
  • Nov 19, 2025 1:41pm Nov 19, 2025 1:41pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,023
  • Nov 19, 2025 1:44pm Nov 19, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,024
  • Nov 19, 2025 2:02pm Nov 19, 2025 2:02pm
Quoting Zeusfleeky
Hedging my sells with some buys, the weekly looks very bullish though nearing its end.
I closed and stopped some orders. Only 0.01 left.
I went scalp Long with much larger volume to compensate and profitable
  • #92,025
  • Nov 19, 2025 2:23pm Nov 19, 2025 2:23pm
discipline and emotional control, there is always a tomorrow
  • #92,026
  • Nov 19, 2025 2:27pm Nov 19, 2025 2:27pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Please be careful Do not trade in anger or revenge You have time on your side as you say you are only learning
Yes Sir. I know.
Thanks Sir.
  • #92,027
  • Nov 19, 2025 3:34pm Nov 19, 2025 3:34pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,028
  • Edited 9:26pm Nov 19, 2025 3:50pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting Zeusfleeky
Hedging my sells with some buys, the weekly looks very bullish though nearing its end.
Sells? But LOOKS bullish?

There is a reason they say, TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK
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The candles will whisper, not speak,
Their language is steady, not weak.
Let vision be guide,
Leave ego aside,
Trade what you see, not what you think.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #92,029
  • Nov 19, 2025 5:24pm Nov 19, 2025 5:24pm
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  • #92,030
  • Nov 19, 2025 9:47pm Nov 19, 2025 9:47pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Sells? But LOOKS bullish? There is a reason they say, TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK {image} The candles will whisper, not speak, Their language is steady, not weak. Let vision be guide, Leave ego aside, Trade what you see, not what you think.
Thanks Sir, I only based this on the fact that i saw some strong resistance on the weekly.

I will try to look more keenly next time, I placed sells without looking at the weekly chart.

Looking at it from purely my ego angle, i say a drop to 155.6 is not beyond mid next week. Ps. I am still learning, I am trying not to get ahead of myself
  • #92,031
  • Nov 19, 2025 10:45pm Nov 19, 2025 10:45pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,032
  • Nov 19, 2025 10:55pm Nov 19, 2025 10:55pm
I will Long again. Then i will consider Short 157,65-15783 zone
  • #92,033
  • Nov 19, 2025 10:59pm Nov 19, 2025 10:59pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
I will Long again. Then i will consider Short 157,65-15783 zone
This bad boy will dissolve after NFP to at least 153 ... JPY will be bought hard after announcement. Price is currently skewed with lack of numbers over last two months.
  • #92,034
  • Nov 19, 2025 11:13pm Nov 19, 2025 11:13pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,035
  • Nov 19, 2025 11:42pm Nov 19, 2025 11:42pm
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,036
  • Nov 19, 2025 11:45pm Nov 19, 2025 11:45pm
We indeed must trade what we see, and the chart was clearly bullish (still is). However, I can't help but think, isn't this rally a bit exaggerated?

I mean, the fundamentals are clearly favouring a bullish trend, but yesterday, for example, we had one of the largest green candles in the recent months, without any major event to fuel it. Yes, the FED minutes came out but markets already knew their opinion, there was nothing new in it, while the fundamentals behind Yen are crap for a long time.

It somehow looks to me that it is in a hurry to get somewhere before it's too late.
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  • #92,037
  • Nov 20, 2025 1:18am Nov 20, 2025 1:18am
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,038
  • Nov 20, 2025 1:32am Nov 20, 2025 1:32am
Quoting bucko23
{quote} This bad boy will dissolve after NFP to at least 153 ... JPY will be bought hard after announcement. Price is currently skewed with lack of numbers over last two months.
I see no chance for 153 even in case of very bad NFP numbers.

If NFP numbers are significantly worse than expectations, I expect 100-150 pips drop (until 155.00 maybe). Bad NFP data will increase the chance of FED rate cut. This drop would be a nice buy opportunity for next days/weeks.

If significantly better than expectations, UJ may test 158.90 (2025 jan peak) quickly.

If NFP would be around expected, bullishness will probably continue in a normal trend.

Yesterday quick and very strong up movement was a bit unexpected for me. Although I was quite bullish, I was expecting annoyingly slow and choppy up movements in the way of 156-157-158. But, it completed half of the road without me, since I took profit early and slept.

It looks to me that big players know something. Maybe, they expect normal or better NFP numbers.

I am sidelined now. Although 158.90 target is tempting, it looks too high to buy especially before NFP.
  • #92,039
  • Nov 20, 2025 4:16am Nov 20, 2025 4:16am
Quoting ThaoAnh
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  • #92,040
  • Nov 20, 2025 5:01am Nov 20, 2025 5:01am
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