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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #3,481
  • Aug 18, 2007 5:38am Aug 18, 2007 5:38am
Does anyone think that the USD/JPY will decline farther due to the break of the triangle downward. USD/JPY is already targeting the 110 area but I am not to sure whether or not it will be possible. Could someone catch me up ont he current status of this currency pair.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,482
  • Aug 18, 2007 6:36am Aug 18, 2007 6:36am
I'm watching yen very closely on Monday, Asian start.

Asian market took extreme tumbles two days in a row, even after the crazy Dow Jones -300, closing flat in the end of the day.

It was the Asian tumble that took all yen pairs so low and if you look closely, the carry trades came back all the way Dow Jones push them down, but didn't recover the Asian stocks share back up.

FED's big move tookover after Asian close, they are going to trade it on Monday. And as risk aversion starts to ease, the Asian stocks will be perceived as juicy bargains now.

FED broke the spiral "NY down because Europe down because Asia down because NY down....."

If a gigantic recover in Asia stocks confirm on Sunday/Monday, I'm going really really big on the Yen carries. Downside risk, other 2 or 3 hedge funds reporting losing their shoes....
  • #3,483
  • Aug 18, 2007 6:46am Aug 18, 2007 6:46am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm watching yen very closely on Monday, Asian start.

Asian market took extreme tumbles two days in a row, even after the crazy Dow Jones -300, closing flat in the end of the day.

It was the Asian tumble that took all yen pairs so low and if you look closely, the carry trades came back all the way Dow Jones push them down, but didn't recover the Asian stocks share back up.

FED's big move tookover after Asian close, they are going to trade it on Monday. And as risk aversion starts to ease, the Asian stocks will be perceived as juicy bargains now.

FED broke the spiral "NY down because Europe down because Asia down because NY down....."

If a gigantic recover in Asia stocks confirm on Sunday/Monday, I'm going really really big on the Yen carries. Downside risk, other 2 or 3 hedge funds reporting losing their shoes....
This Fed move hasn't flushed all the bad paper out of the system.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3,484
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:11am Aug 18, 2007 10:11am
has the usd/jpy bottomed out? Will all the jpy pairs now rally? Is the carry trade back? Alive and well? How will this effect trading on Asian open? Are the days of shorting these pairs over? Also, does anyone trade the usd/jpy using the 5EMA and the 8 SMA with success?
  • #3,485
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:38am Aug 18, 2007 11:38am
Quoting DutchTrader
This Fed move hasn't flushed all the bad paper out of the system.
Speaking of, here's an interesting piece of news that was oddly released at midnight last night. I guess they didn't want to spoil the feel good rally..

http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...rpc=23&sp=true
  • #3,486
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:10pm Aug 18, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting DutchTrader
This Fed move hasn't flushed all the bad paper out of the system.
But has shown that there's this deep-pocketed big daddy watching our back.
  • #3,487
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:27pm Aug 18, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but those pivots must be right on and not 1 pip either way......

R1 - 116.39
daily - 114.19
central - 113.87
S1 111.66
dove,

Given the fractured nature of FX data, isn't it likely that there will be +/- 1 pip discrepancies in pivot calculations? A listing of 6 published sets of daily pivots shows this is often the case. We all have different spreads/feeds, and if we're using the bid price (or b/a midpoint) for our pivot calculations, it's likely any slight spread differential when the daily low/high was hit will then offset our pivot calculation. Given the above, how can we assume that all traders are acting upon the exact same pivot level to the pip?


****
I'm using an MT4 demo until I get my second data feed for QuoteTracker setup. As you can see, the auto pivots match Dutch's calculations, but are off 1 pip from dove's.

The MT4 setup is quite handy as it also overlays the weekly and monthly pivot levels (something I can't do in QT). Interesting to see that the late day rallies on Friday reversed at the weekly S3.

In case anyone is interested in setting it up, I'm using habeeb's pivot indicator and FXDD's demo from the server files thread (oddly enough, FXDD is the only MT4 broker I could find that used a 17:00 EST open..)
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  • #3,488
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:06pm Aug 18, 2007 10:06pm
Just a quick question for you traders. Do you think that even with the fed rate cut, the carry trade unwind is still an issue? could we see a move back to 112.00 or even 110.00? Just wondering as to your thoughts.
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #3,489
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:54pm Aug 18, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting Spineynorman
Just a quick question for you traders. Do you think that even with the fed rate cut, the carry trade unwind is still an issue? could we see a move back to 112.00 or even 110.00? Just wondering as to your thoughts.
at least not in this week I don't see it coming. JPY is shorted heavily by the big boys in the futures market so I would look to long USDJPY (actually the best is to long AUDJPY IMO) this week.
Take a report.
  • #3,490
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:52pm Aug 18, 2007 11:52pm
Quoting CateFul
at least not in this week I don't see it coming. JPY is shorted heavily by the big boys in the futures market so I would look to long USDJPY (actually the best is to long AUDJPY IMO) this week.

ah, cool thank you CateFul, i thank you for your input on this.
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #3,491
  • Aug 19, 2007 12:42am Aug 19, 2007 12:42am
Hello traders and blessings,
This last Thursday into Friday was two very interesting days as you all well know…. What was interesting for me was the phenomenal way of movement between the central and S1 because of the distance for Fridays pivots which was an astounding 221 pips. This was, for me, a true test of the distance between those two pivots, especially, the return trip from the S1 to the central. Through the times I have traded this pair the max distance I have recalled was a 118 pips, which then, also kept true.

I had also notice on the fibo of the extension, it too kept true in which the pivot and the fibo were at the same mark….. All through those two days you had traders using technical evaluation kept saying it was going this way and that way but in the end, they were wrong….. Another thing that also kept true during the long distance travel was the 50% retrace. Even though there are no signals to give the pip count on the retrace, indicators set at the right parameters can give you the turn around as it is happening. On the 50% retrace it can go back to the pivot it came from or, as little as 15-20 pips and then turn….. This is why I never get into the 50% retrace because you never know if you will be caught with a loss or be winner. And I really don’t want to find out which way it will turn out so I play it safe and wait. One thing you can depend on and that is when it turns from the 50% it then will continue on to the next pivot without any more retraces except for the normal retrace of the candles.

The volatility in the market from Thursday into Friday was very extensively high and remained high through out this period which included all the highs and lows. With this type of volatility my charts were at 10 and 20 pip increments and the normal volatility for the increments are set at 2 – 5 pips….. With this type of increments, with the central and the daily had a 32 pip spread between them, then the normal travel of 2 -5 pip increments would stay within the boundary….. But since the volatility of 10 -20 pip increments were constant with the spread of 32 pips, had then brought it down to an 8 pip spread of the normal….. This is why you had a couple of candles that went straight from central to daily and visa-versa within a few minutes.

One thing I am sure of, most of you traders are beginning to see the big picture on how the pivots play a major role on the pip movements…. Once you have begun to believe and execute your trades with this pivots you then will see a major increase of your finances……

The fear factor is a major emotion the will kill any opportunity that arises because you are thinking, or using an emotion, that does not belong in this market…. You have to start believing what you see and not what you think or what someone else said. Take your time and don’t think if you missed an opportunity then there would be no more because – smiling – every day, an opportunity arises and always, there are pips to be made. Establish a system using these pivots and practice with a demo with your system until you are sure of yourself and your system….. Once you have done that, then you will no longer have the fear factor in your trades……

God bless.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #3,492
  • Aug 19, 2007 1:02am Aug 19, 2007 1:02am
Quoting dove_alliance
Hello traders and blessings,
This last Thursday into Friday was two very interesting days as you all well know…. What was interesting for me was the phenomenal way of movement between the central and S1 because of the distance for Fridays pivots which was an astounding 221 pips. This was, for me, a true test of the distance between those two pivots, especially, the return trip from the S1 to the central. Through the times I have traded this pair the max distance I have recalled was a 118 pips, which then, also kept true.

I had also notice on the fibo of the extension, it too kept true in which the pivot and the fibo were at the same mark….. All through those two days you had traders using technical evaluation kept saying it was going this way and that way but in the end, they were wrong….. Another thing that also kept true during the long distance travel was the 50% retrace. Even though there are no signals to give the pip count on the retrace, indicators set at the right parameters can give you the turn around as it is happening. On the 50% retrace it can go back to the pivot it came from or, as little as 15-20 pips and then turn….. This is why I never get into the 50% retrace because you never know if you will be caught with a loss or be winner. And I really don’t want to find out which way it will turn out so I play it safe and wait. One thing you can depend on and that is when it turns from the 50% it then will continue on to the next pivot without any more retraces except for the normal retrace of the candles.

The volatility in the market from Thursday into Friday was very extensively high and remained high through out this period which included all the highs and lows. With this type of volatility my charts were at 10 and 20 pip increments and the normal volatility for the increments are set at 2 – 5 pips….. With this type of increments, with the central and the daily had a 32 pip spread between them, then the normal travel of 2 -5 pip increments would stay within the boundary….. But since the volatility of 10 -20 pip increments were constant with the spread of 32 pips, had then brought it down to an 8 pip spread of the normal….. This is why you had a couple of candles that went straight from central to daily and visa-versa within a few minutes.

One thing I am sure of, most of you traders are beginning to see the big picture on how the pivots play a major role on the pip movements…. Once you have begun to believe and execute your trades with this pivots you then will see a major increase of your finances……

The fear factor is a major emotion the will kill any opportunity that arises because you are thinking, or using an emotion, that does not belong in this market…. You have to start believing what you see and not what you think or what someone else said. Take your time and don’t think if you missed an opportunity then there would be no more because – smiling – every day, an opportunity arises and always, there are pips to be made. Establish a system using these pivots and practice with a demo with your system until you are sure of yourself and your system….. Once you have done that, then you will no longer have the fear factor in your trades……

God bless.
thank you Dove,

I just wounder that many systems are falling short, the fact that there is so much info out there. # one the carry trade and its unwind or pick up. at the end of the day is it not are gut or intuition that counts. charts can be wrong, though they may be right most of the time, yet what about the gut intuition. so i guess i still ask is 112.00 or 110.00 possible my mind says 117.00 yet i must say my gut is more with 112.. - 110.00 what say you all?
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #3,493
  • Edited 5:23am Aug 19, 2007 1:49am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting Spineynorman
thank you Dove,

I just wounder that many systems are falling short, the fact that there is so much info out there. # one the carry trade and its unwind or pick up. at the end of the day is it not are gut or intuition that counts. charts can be wrong, though they may be right most of the time, yet what about the gut intuition. so i guess i still ask is 112.00 or 110.00 possible my mind says 117.00 yet i must say my gut is more with 112.. - 110.00 what say you all?
Lets take this to a new level.....The system and the charts never lie if you know how to set them up and use them properly..... I use a 2 hour chart for my long term trend and the reason is because the 2 hour is medium range and it does stay true...... The down trend on my two hour chart began on Tuesday the 9th at 06:00 ET and stayed in that down trend even though there was a 140 pip retrace on Friday the 10th that began at 08:00 ET. On Monday the 13th at 12 noon ET it turned again into the trend and remain in that trend for the rest of the week..... Now was I worry about the carry trades if their up or down or did I have to depend on instinct or guts?..... Of course not. My two hour chart already told me which way the trend is..... Using the pivots had helped me accumulate the pips in that trend.

My two hour chart had started the sweep up about 03:00 this last Friday and the Trend line is now at the crossing but have not yet made the crossing but only touching...... The final decision will be Sunday. If the trend does change then my focus is on the long. If it does not cross then my focus is on the short..... And why? Because my charts do not lie.

There is something I would like to emphasize on systems and charts…..

On my weekly chart; and this is the furthest I go on charts, shows the trends in a very reliable way in which I can determine a trend lasting a long period of time…. On the first week of April my indicators had crossed below the weekly candle indicating the change of trend in which it did and the Central pivot at that time was 117.71. It traveled in 11 weeks to the top of the trend at 124.12 which ended on the week of June 22nd. The next day on Sunday the 23rd my indicator had swept above the candle and the Central pivot at that time was 123.82. And in 7 weeks, which was the end of this last week, the low point of this trend had reached 111.59….. My indicators are showing a down at this time because the new weekly candle has not popped up and will do not do so until the market opens later today. But, my Slow_K, which I use on the weekly shows, oversold at the 10% and has made a turn going up…… Now, am I predicting? No, I am not…. I will not have the answers until the market opens and then determine as the indicators begin to take place….. On long term trends, such as the weekly, it can take weeks before a new trend to kick in and show. But, once it does, then I will be looking at a long term trend up. And if it continues down, then I will stay with it…..

The weekly chart acts in the same manner as any other chart; may it be the 1 minute or the 1 hour. Just like prior to the first week of April….. It spent 4 weeks in consolidation before turning and went up….. And just like any other chart; you will have the retraces. So, if you look at a long term chart in the same manner you would look at the short term chart, you then would be able to use strategy on a different level.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #3,494
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:00am Aug 19, 2007 2:00am
Quoting dove_alliance
Lets take this to a new level.....They system and the charts never lie if you know how to set them up and use them properly..... I use a 2 hour chart for my long term trend and the reason is because the 2 hour is medium range and it does stay true...... The down trend on my two hour chart began on Tuesday the 9th at 06:00 ET and stayed in that down trend even though there was a 140 pip retrace on Friday the 10th that began at 08:00 ET. On Monday the 13th at 12 noon ET it turned again into the trend and remain in that trend for the rest of the week..... Now was I worry about the carry trades if their up or down or did I have to depend on instinct or guts?..... Of course not. My two hour chart already told me which way the trend is..... Using the pivots had helped me accumulate the pips in that trend.

My two hour chart had started the sweep up about 03:00 this last Friday and the Trend line is now at the crossing but have not yet made the crossing but only touching...... The final decision will be Sunday. If the trend does change then my focus is on the long. If it does not cross then my focus is on the short..... And why? Because my charts do not lie.

Dove,

May I ask what chart system or systems you use? they sound very good. And thank you for more info as well.
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #3,495
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:04am Aug 19, 2007 2:04am
One other thing I want to mention about the trends..... There is absolutely nothing that can change a trend, not any announcement, not the market, not the carry trades, not anything can change any trend except the trend itself..... I have seen it retrace more than 150 pips in a trend and will not change but only fall back into the original trend.... I have seen it to many times, over and over again. The trend will only change itself, and that is it.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #3,496
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:21am Aug 19, 2007 2:21am
Quoting Spineynorman
Dove,

May I ask what chart system or systems you use? they sound very good. And thank you for more info as well.
I use two types of charts - The IntelliCharts and the AccuChart - in which I have a software that a good friend of mine had given me, to be able to congregate these two chart system into one.... But, the IntelliCharts are the best in the market to achieve the same as I have..... It will cost you a monthly fee but they are worth every penny..... The charts are the Pro Desktop with over 150 indicators....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #3,497
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:48am Aug 19, 2007 4:48am
Dove, is there an option somewhere on Accucharts that can automatically plot the pivots?
  • #3,498
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:22am Aug 19, 2007 5:22am
Quoting southernmind
Dove, is there an option somewhere on Accucharts that can automatically plot the pivots?
No - There isn't - and I highly recommend never to use anything that is automated.... That is bad news because they are never accurate.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #3,499
  • Aug 19, 2007 9:06am Aug 19, 2007 9:06am
Try putting a 52 SMA and 26 SMA on the weekly chart. The trend does not die unless the 52 changes direction. And a new 26-week high that's when the big traders (hedge fund, etc) start to add long positions, but do not follow them, they're hardly right. They don't make money by buying low and selling high so do not follow them. That's all I can say.
Take a report.
  • #3,500
  • Aug 19, 2007 9:36am Aug 19, 2007 9:36am
another week, another chance for profits. I did very well. Made a lot of rookie mistakes but ended up making back a lot I lost in the last 4-5 months. I'm now able to open bigger positions on USDJPY so I'll be able to close out positions. Too many times in August have I been 100+ just to lose most of it to see how far up/down it will go. Now I'll be able to close out a huge position and keep another open with a s/l at BE.

I've been using Dove's method and his advice as a secondary to my own "indicators." Usually it's good to see both working together. Usually means a great trade
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