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EURUSD

  • #2,401
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:09pm Aug 17, 2007 2:09pm
do you think ,it is bearish?????
  • #2,402
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:14pm Aug 17, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting smartydoctor
I am long on EURUSD, what do you think???
For the short term, going long may be a good idea. However I think EUR/USD still has potential to touch the 1.3300 area, before going back upward. Another fact that backs this thought up, is due to the 3 Bearish Candles that did occur along with a double top in EUR/USD. I enter a short trade at 1.3525 w/SL being 1.3650 and PT 1.3300. Although I am not to sure if this trade may not be a good idea, due to another possible retracement to the 1.3600 level.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,403
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:19pm Aug 17, 2007 2:19pm
there is a potential for a mid term breakout next week we could see 1.3250 or 1.3200
  • #2,404
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:22pm Aug 17, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting 59fender
there is a potential for a mid term breakout next week we could see 1.3250 or 1.3200
Definitly possible, with only about 250 pips to go, the market may want to take a grind lower to make newer lows.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,405
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:28pm Aug 17, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting 59fender
chart 4hr
dig that crazy pin bar at the five-o fib!
  • #2,406
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:38pm Aug 17, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting chady250
Definitly possible, with only about 250 pips to go, the market may want to take a grind lower to make newer lows.
Is there any relation between FED bank decisions and the current trend???
  • #2,407
  • Aug 17, 2007 2:48pm Aug 17, 2007 2:48pm
EUR/USD bounced nicely off the 1.3360 trendline (see weekly charts from end of Feb. 2006) support twice already... For now, I would bet on a reversal higher, back towards the 1.3850 area in the coming weeks. The fundamentals seem to support this as we slowly get back to trading by economic data, instead of the subprime panic markets that have lead the way to these levels. Daily RSI seems to confirm this as well.

We may be able to get further confirmation by looking at price crossing major daily MAs to the topside, as well as other MA crossovers, but those are lagging so if you want to catch the trend early on, you can't wait for all the stars to align.

All in all, we may have a nice swing trade developing. I'm in long from 1.3460 with stops just below 1.3350 for a risk of about 110 pips (not including spread). I am setting my tp at 1.3850 for now, but that is still open and will depend on economic data and price action as it develops. If that pans out it puts profit at 390 pips and a nice RR of approximately 3.5:1.

Comments/suggestions are very welcome, especially from any of you Elliot Wave guys.
  • #2,408
  • Edited Aug 18, 2007 3:33am Aug 17, 2007 10:30pm | Edited Aug 18, 2007 3:33am
Stopped out for -30 on the second H1 doji wick.... Reentered long and picked up 100 pips. Now I'm short, looking for another 100. Anybody else short?
  • #2,409
  • Aug 18, 2007 5:25am Aug 18, 2007 5:25am
Quoting tdion
Stopped out for -30 on the second H1 doji wick.... Reentered long and picked up 100 pips. Now I'm short, looking for another 100. Anybody else short?
I'm already in the position of being short at 1.3500 hopefully hitting the target of 1.33 later next week.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,410
  • Aug 18, 2007 5:35am Aug 18, 2007 5:35am
Quoting smartydoctor
Is there any relation between FED bank decisions and the current trend???
I'm not too sure if there is any correlation between the FED's decision on possibly increasing interest rates. If FED's are increasing rates, then according to macroeconomics theory, the value of the USD should appreciate, while the base currency depreciates.

For example if US has an interest rate higher than the Europe, and US is planning on increasing its interest rates, it will only motivate foreign investors to purchase more US dollars due to the fact that there is a higher interest rate on investments. These investors may also sell their own currency to get US dollars, thus adding a double effect on the affected currency. Selling of a currency shows that the supply will increase, demand will decrease thus leading to a depreciation of a currency. This in return may add to a double effect to the currency pair.

I am not exactly sure on what the FED may or may not do, but I believe that a raise in interest rates will have a correlation in the declining rates of EUR/USD. Just like the FED's interest rates, I am not to sure if this macro theory will play into effect.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,411
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:41am Aug 18, 2007 10:41am
A top may have formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #2,412
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:04am Aug 18, 2007 11:04am
Quoting MackS10
A top may have formed.
nice chart I expect somrthing simililar, what a battle we had at 1.3500 trying to find a good level to short from looks like we could see 1.3250 and 1.300 does not look too far off the trend is still up and fundamentally the dollar has problems but technically this is the dollars best chance to reverse the trend we had a strong wave downward this should be followed by a pullback and another strong wave downward if the dollar does in fact reverse the trend I do not expect it to last at some point the dollar is toast
  • #2,413
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:54am Aug 18, 2007 11:54am
Quoting MackS10
A top may have formed.
Why preferred scenario against a very well established uptrend channel?

First taget the 2nd shoulder? maybe. But surely 2nd target the upper trendline way before confirmation of the H&S.

Euro traded 1.38+ already calls for 1.4 psychological milestone rather than 1.3

IMHO
  • #2,414
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:52pm Aug 18, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting cesarnc
Why preferred scenario against a very well established uptrend channel?

First taget the 2nd shoulder? maybe. But surely 2nd target the upper trendline way before confirmation of the H&S.

Euro traded 1.38+ already calls for 1.4 psychological milestone rather than 1.3

IMHO
what are the charts telling us? the mid tern and long term are up score a couple points for the euro however nothing goes up forever the short term chart shows a reversal a lower high and a lower low for this trend to continue we need to see a lower high followed by a lower low we had a strong push lower and are now "consolidating" after this push lower I agree we have 1.400 on top so what does that give us on the downside? 1.3250 lets round things off(previous low was 1.3262) we have failed to maintaian above 1.3500 closing price 1.3475 so right now we are 25 pips closer to the downside target however its only been one day so nothing to get too excited about there is no real news tomorrow and fridays high was higher than thursdays high so this could favor the euro for mon. the pair moves about 100 pips quite often so we need to see a high mon. around 1.3600 at this time the short tern chart is leaning downward favoring 1.3250 if this can be accomplished we will be thru the two year up trend channell looking at a possible complete trend reversal"heads up" reallisticlly we could double bottom off 1.3250 and have the uptrend resume from there keeping the long term outlook intact and reversing the short term from there
  • #2,415
  • Aug 18, 2007 9:27pm Aug 18, 2007 9:27pm
Quoting MackS10
A top may have formed.
With a weekly support area near 1.3325, it will make this week a very interesting one. I personally believe that the next candle stickk will touch the bottom of the trendline stated in your graph, however since testing of the support level will occur, there might be little movement upward due to constant movement upwards and downwards of the candlestick. On the daily charts, the pair does show potential for another move downward, followed by consecutive moves upwards near 1.3500 again, although I am not to certain of this, possibly the beginning of the week will display bearish candles and as we approach the end of the week, bullish candles will start to emerge.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,416
  • Aug 19, 2007 1:17am Aug 19, 2007 1:17am
This is just a thought. I am wondering is the carry trade has unwound yet. Is it possible to hit a 1.3300 in this week? What are your thoughts?
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #2,417
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:55am Aug 19, 2007 2:55am
Quoting cesarnc
Why preferred scenario against a very well established uptrend channel?

First taget the 2nd shoulder? maybe. But surely 2nd target the upper trendline way before confirmation of the H&S.

Euro traded 1.38+ already calls for 1.4 psychological milestone rather than 1.3

IMHO
I agree. Why the assumption of primary trend reversal? As per my weekly chart, last week candle has just retraced from the 50% Fibo of the uptrend move that started early February and closed above the secondary trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,418
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:46am Aug 19, 2007 8:46am
What a week! I have to admit, this is kind of market I like. Call me crazy, but Forex without interventions is not worth trading on. I know it has been scary for all those who are trading on this market less than 5 years, but for me it was a blast!

Shame that we haven’t seen full scale push from Central Banks (but that will come too, all in good time), but “surprise” cut by Feds gave us good ole feeling of Forex Market.

During last week most of Central Banks had to add liquidity to the market, and 10 yens move was fun to watch. Lot of stops had been hit, and market should now get more technical. I have to admit that I was annoyed by all those who believed that they can make money on interest rate differential. It never worked in past, and as it seems, it is not working again. Never the less, in few years time there will be new group of believers, and we will be watching this all over again.

So what will happen next?
Looking at EurUsd weekly chart (go to analysed charts, and click on EURUSDweekly), both sides are still in play. It will be nice if we would brake bellow 1.3370 next week and go though trend line still supporting Euro. However, mid-term trend has changed and I will be selling Euro more than buying it, that’s for sure. Resistances are at 1.3550 and 1.3600 for now, but it would be good if we will stay bellow 1.3515 during Monday, in order to keep pressure to the down side.
  • #2,419
  • Aug 20, 2007 12:06am Aug 20, 2007 12:06am
EURUSD

EURUSD is in down trend. The fall from 1.3839 extended to as low as 1.3360. Further fall towards 1.3300 is expected after consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.3605, and as long as this resistance holds, down trend will continue.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #2,420
  • Aug 20, 2007 1:46am Aug 20, 2007 1:46am
Quoting Moe
EURUSD

EURUSD is in down trend. The fall from 1.3839 extended to as low as 1.3360. Further fall towards 1.3300 is expected after consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.3605, and as long as this resistance holds, down trend will continue.
Very interesting, Do you believe 1.3500 is a sturdy resistance level???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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