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Trading for a living

  • #601
  • Nov 11, 2025 2:00pm Nov 11, 2025 2:00pm
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} For me random entry = no edge = casino = lottery. You can't make bad trading system good with money management.
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The PDF Medici shared also proofs this point.
  • #602
  • Nov 11, 2025 3:05pm Nov 11, 2025 3:05pm
Quoting sharingan9
Sell signal on EURGBP and buy on GBPHKD
Quoting Noisy
Tried looking at a GBP/USD 1-hour chart with an FVG indicator on it. I don't know, but based on that I will hardly be able to trade, as this doesn't really take into account the time I have available for manual trading, nor can I somehow foresee how/if this would lead to a constant minimum profit within the required time. PS. The two FVGs drawn most recently for today did not hold up and the price broke through both. {image}
Results of EURGBP short and GBPKD long.

EURGBP short:
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GBPHKD long:
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GBPHKD moves exactly the same as GBPUSD and I came close to getting an alert for GBPUSD but GBPHKD was the exact conditions the scanner looks for so that is what was detected I took that GBPHKD signal. If the perception is a price at higher prices the market will move accordingly unless something changes that perception. The FVG in this case just were not a strong enough interpretation. These trades took minutes to execute right at the beginning of London session which is where moves tend to happen so you get a good amount of signals at those times. Look how GBPHKD rises.

Updates on my EURCAD short(Done in a huge uptrend on the daily chart btw. Trends or cycle do not phase auction theory) and CADCHF longs(Done in a huge downtrend on the daily chart btw. Trends or cycles do not phase auction theory) from last week. Look at the beautiful Reward to Risk ratio and the accuracy.
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Feel free to call out trades guys
  • #603
  • Nov 12, 2025 12:02am Nov 12, 2025 12:02am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} {image} The PDF Medici shared also proofs this point.
Don't believe everything AI says. As I told 0.5R is actually 1R and as you added, what is the point to use 20 point stop if you cut losses at 10 points. Initial 20 point stops makes no sense. If we study deeper pdf we will find more questionable things.

Also your GPT equity curve is perfect 45% ange. Its ideal curve and nobody has curve like that.

But as entries make zero difference, apply these money management rules to your trading system and you will be millionaire by the end of next year. Actually anyone who applies these rules to they own system will be millionaire soon.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #604
  • Edited 2:12am Nov 12, 2025 1:50am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} For me random entry = no edge = casino = lottery. You can't make bad trading system good with money management.
I'm afraid you have the evidence against you. Here's why:

1. To begin with, why is consistently profitable trading possible? Because the market forms trends between levels. A more detailed understanding of that enables one to formulate strategies, etc.

2. If the market is trending/swinging, which e.g. NQ usually is doing during market hours, then a random entry has 50% to happen in the direction of the current trend/swing, so all you need to do is manage it, based on a strategy designed for the purpose. And you cut the random long entry in a down-swing immediately, etc.
  • #605
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:18am Nov 12, 2025 2:18am
Quoting medici
{quote} I'm afraid you have the evidence against you. Here's why: 1. To begin with, why is it consistently profitable trading possible? Because the market forms trends between levels. A more detailed understanding of that enables one to formulate strategies, etc. 2. If the market is trending/swinging, which e.g. NQ usually is doing during market hours, then a random entry has 50% to happen in the direction of the current trend/swing, so all you need to do is manage it, based on a strategy designed for the purpose. And you cut the random long entry...
Are are actually telling same thing, edge is working not randomness :

- trends between the levels is edge not randomness.
- trading during market hours is not randomness.
- taking the trade in direction of trend is not randomness.
- designed strategy base on edge not randomness. You don't need strategy when you relay in random entry.
- if you cut random entry quickly, its not randomness. Do don't give a randomness chance to work out.

Lets forget AI for a moment and look real results. People trading their own money, at least 10k $ in risk in futures division.
Are these people bunch of losers who never heard of money management ? AI give 33'000 % less than a year.
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I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #606
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:24am Nov 12, 2025 2:24am
This is random.org coin toss, timed with 4hr Comex at 23:00, 05:00, 09:00 US EST. It's been running for just over a week. I have done this several times in the past it is always profitable, Running at 3:1. The signals are from pure random atmospheric static noise
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  • #607
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:45am Nov 12, 2025 2:45am
Quoting M31
This is random.org coin toss, timed with 4hr Comex at 23:00, 05:00, 09:00 US EST. It's been running for just over a week. I have done this several times in the past it is always profitable, Running at 3:1. The signals are from pure random atmospheric static noise{image}
Stop is market structure based or always fix size of points example always 10 point stop ?
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #608
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:49am Nov 12, 2025 2:49am
Quoting M31
This is random.org coin toss, timed with 4hr Comex at 23:00, 05:00, 09:00 US EST. It's been running for just over a week. I have done this several times in the past it is always profitable, Running at 3:1. The signals are from pure random atmospheric static noise{image}

How much samples are you made? I think to get statistically meaning result you need at lest 1000 samples (1000 sames gives 3% error buffer - so if you got 50% winrate, in live trading it will be 47-53%. For 1% buffer you need 9604 samles (49-51%), for 5% - 400 (45-55%). For low samples (especially up to 100) you can get nonobjective results - 30% 70% winrate due to temporary market conditions.

I think in long run (1000+ samples) such random entries stats will show breakeven (loss with comissions slippage etc) and bigger RR will not save - for RR 1:1 winrate will be 50%, for 1:2 - 33%, for 1:3 - 25% etc - anyway around 0.
  • #609
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:54am Nov 12, 2025 2:54am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Stop is market structure based or always fix size of points example always 10 point stop ?
Stop is under a low or high, if I can get to it, otherwise volatility based, it is structured with Comex times and not truly random at any point in time. However, to make money, the signal does not have to be accurate, timed with comex there is a 50% chance of it being right/wrong and 3 rolls of dice per day with 3:1 makes it profitable.

I don't trade like this, but this will match or beat RSI or similar systems.
  • #610
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:55am Nov 12, 2025 2:55am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Are are actually telling same thing, edge is working not randomness : - trends between the levels is edge not randomness. - trading during market hours is not randomness. - taking the trade in direction of trend is not randomness. - designed strategy base on edge not randomness. You don't need strategy when you relay in random entry. - if you cut random entry quickly, its not randomness. Do don't give a randomness chance to work out. Lets forget AI for a moment and look real results. People trading their own money, at least 10k $ in risk...
No, I didn't say that. i was trying to explain why random entries + proper money management can be profitable. You can trade the random entries with fixed risk:reward, but you need to know how to set the size of the risk in terms of points, and in terms of % of your account. As somebody said F**ck Your Strategy.

Inserted Video


Notice in particular that he is saying that his big edge is to add to winners, i.e. money management.
  • #611
  • Nov 12, 2025 2:56am Nov 12, 2025 2:56am
Quoting olvus
{quote} How much samples are you made? I think to get statistically meaning result you need at lest 1000 samples (1000 sames gives 3% error buffer - so if you got 50% winrate, in live trading it will be 47-53%. For 1% buffer you need 9604 samles (49-51%), for 5% - 400 (45-55%). For low samples (especially up to 100) you can get nonobjective results - 30% 70% winrate due to temporary market conditions. I think in long run (1000+ samples) such random entries stats will show breakeven (loss with comissions slippage etc) and bigger RR will not save...

I've coded it before in past, with random.org API, it is always profitable long term n in the 1000's and 1000's
  • #612
  • Nov 12, 2025 3:02am Nov 12, 2025 3:02am
Quoting medici
{quote} No, I didn't say that. i was trying to explain why random entries + proper money management can be profitable. You can trade the random entries with fixed risk:reward, but you need to know how to set the size of the risk in terms of points, and in terms of % of your account. As somebody said F**ck Your Strategy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHJRi2pLfPA Notice in particular that he is saying that his big edge is to add to winners, i.e. money management.
One of the biggest or popular ICT trades ways F... Strategy ?
ICT has most complicated strategies that are out there.

Okay I might be wrong, I have been wrong before.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #613
  • Nov 12, 2025 3:30am Nov 12, 2025 3:30am
No, it's not that easy. Even If you risk only 0.2% per Trade you lose in long term if you don't know what you are doing. The experience of these losses - than can make you a winner but it has nothing to do with the 0.2% risk per Trade -except it longers your stay in the market.

You need an edge. Always. If it would be that easy you could also earn money with roulette. Any successful trader here earning money with money management playing roulette for ten years? No? See. That's the answer. I don't need 30 minutes to show that.

Also that fancy BE or TP trail or take out half blabla is just for your psyche. Nothing more. Of course it cannot be more. Why? Well, I don't tell you everything, pal. Cheers. out
  • #614
  • Nov 12, 2025 3:49am Nov 12, 2025 3:49am
Quoting M31
{quote} Stop is under a low or high, if I can get to it, otherwise volatility based, it is structured with Comex times and not truly random at any point in time. However, to make money, the signal does not have to be accurate, timed with comex there is a 50% chance of it being right/wrong and 3 rolls of dice per day with 3:1 makes it profitable. I don't trade like this, but this will match or beat RSI or similar systems.
Then can you call your experiment "random entry".
Sure if we miss valid entry by 5-10 candles we still can make money.
Trends tend to continue than revers. But we can't call late entry as random.

AI is mixing up money and trade management rules but anyway it would be nice anyone interested to forward test it ?
Rules on pages 2-3

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15466291

Just a sample who NQ moved yesterday in RTH session.
Dotted horizonal 10 point increment, dashed 40 point increment
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I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #615
  • Nov 12, 2025 3:55am Nov 12, 2025 3:55am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} Then can you call your experiment "random entry". Sure if we miss valid entry by 5-10 candles we still can make money. Trends tend to continue than revers. But we can't call late entry as random. AI is mixing up money and trade management rules but anyway it would be nice anyone interested to forward test it ? Rules on pages 2-3 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15466291 Just a sample who NQ moved yesterday in RTH session. Dotted horizonal 10 point increment, dashed 40 point increment {image}

No its not that's why I said its not truly random. To do a test there needs to be some element of structure, otherwise how do you measure and collate results. The important part is not the times, I could pick midnight, every night at 20:23, every Monday. The important part is the signal, and it is risk management that makes you profitable not a signal.
  • #616
  • Nov 12, 2025 4:42am Nov 12, 2025 4:42am
Quoting M31
{quote} No its not that's why I said its not truly random. To do a test there needs to be some element of structure, otherwise how do you measure and collate results. The important part is not the times, I could pick midnight, every night at 20:23, every Monday. The important part is the signal, and it is risk management that makes you profitable not a signal.
It all started with AI's claim above that random entry + money management = big profits.
Just roll of dice every half hour. No structure, nothing else needed. Dice and trade management.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #617
  • Nov 12, 2025 5:12am Nov 12, 2025 5:12am
Quoting M31
{quote} I've coded it before in past, with random.org API, it is always profitable long term n in the 1000's and 1000's
Which trading platforms are you programming for? You don't actually need an external API like random.org for that. That's more for high-security applications. Almost every programming language has functions for generating pseudorandom numbers. That should be more than sufficient for this use case. In MQL5, MathSRand() / MathRand() would be used for that.
  • #618
  • Nov 12, 2025 5:14am Nov 12, 2025 5:14am
Quoting Mandariin
{quote} It all started with AI's claim above that random entry + money management = big profits. Just roll of dice every half hour. No structure, nothing else needed. Dice and trade management.
To be clear, I'm not advocating for trading like this, but you could if you wanted to and you would be long-term profitable. If you have time to sit in front of the computer and you have experience, you are always going to beat this method. It's purely to demonstrate money management. I looked how long you have been trading, and then I was wondering if in between the messages, I'd missed what you were saying or I missed the point you were making or we both, maybe misunderstood the point we were making.
  • #619
  • Edited 5:41am Nov 12, 2025 5:25am | Edited 5:41am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Which trading platforms are you programming for? You don't actually need an external API like random.org for that. That's more for high-security applications. Almost every programming language has functions for generating pseudorandom numbers. That should be more than sufficient for this use case. In MQL5, MathRand() would be used for that.
I wanted to avoid pseudorandom numbers, not that it would matter in this case. It was more a pure demonstration of risk management. I use ctrader c#, usued random.org and the with historical data, reported as csv file. When I had real bad trading performance from psychology, I read an article somewhere about it, I knew I was the problem, but we avoid confronting it, so I kept looking for strategies. After a particularly bad week, I coded with historical data, to compare with my historical performance, and the figures were way higher than my performance. I knew it was my psychology, it can only be, for this to beat my strategy, it can not be a strategy, it can only be from poor discipline with following the strategy and in particular money management.

It's when I accepted this, that I turned a corner, this is years ago, but it's why I go on about it so much, if I see a topic about it, I can't stop myself from replying about it, its emotionally ingrained in my history, everything changed for me from that point onwards.
  • #620
  • Edited 6:04am Nov 12, 2025 5:52am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting M31
I knew it was my psychology, it can only be, for this to beat my strategy, it can not be a strategy, it can only be from poor discipline with following the strategy and in particular money management. It's when I accepted this, that I turned a corner, this is years ago, over 5 years ago now or close to it. It's why I go on about it so much, its emotionally ingrained in my history, everything changed for me from that point onwards.
That's absolutely correct. The best strategy is useless if you fail at disciplined execution, especially if coupled with poor risk/money management. If you don't have absolute self-control (I readily admit that this is the case for me), then in my opinion, a mechanical approach based on clear objective rules and automated execution is better suited to achieving consistent results than manual pattern recognition and manual execution, where emotions will inevitably distort the execution and thus the results sooner or later.

Manual traders argue that humans are "still" better able to recognize and interpret complex relationships and act accordingly. That's true, but if you can't consistently guarantee this, as mentioned, but want/need to achieve consistent results (because, for example, you want to make a living from it), which is better?
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