HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 23rd October 2025.

Global Markets Mixed as Earnings, Sanctions, and Inflation Data Dominate Investor Focus.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...eature_7gitcWF
Global markets were mixed on Thursday as traders weighed a wave of corporate earnings, escalating sanctions on Russian oil producers, and rising anticipation for key US inflation data later this week.

Wall Street Futures Struggle for Direction
US stock futures were steady to mixed as investors assessed the latest third-quarter earnings. Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered slightly below the flat line, while S&P 500 (ES=F) futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) futures gained around 0.3%.

Tesla (TSLA) shares slipped more than 3.5% after posting uneven quarterly results, marking the start of the “Magnificent Seven” earnings season. IBM (IBM) also fell by about 6.5%, as its strong profits were offset by weaker-than-expected software revenue.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming results from T-Mobile (TMUS) and Blackstone (BX) before the market opens, followed by Intel (INTC) after the bell.

Oil Prices Surge After New US Sanctions on Russia
Oil markets rallied sharply after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest crude producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, in a bid to increase pressure on Moscow to negotiate an end to its war in Ukraine.

Brent crude surged by as much as 3.9%, trading near $65 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced towards $61. The sanctions, announced by President Donald Trump, marked a significant policy reversal just days after he signalled plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8.original.png
According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore, the penalties “mark a shift in President Trump’s approach to Russia and open the door for tougher sanctions down the road, which could ultimately impact Russian oil flows.”

The move has already unsettled key buyers. Senior refinery executives in India-one of the largest importers of Russian crude-said the restrictions would make it nearly impossible to continue purchases. Trump also revealed plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping about Beijing’s continued imports of Russian oil during an upcoming meeting in South Korea.

The US leader added that India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, had assured him the country would begin winding down its Russian crude purchases. Both India and China have become the largest buyers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, stepping in as Western nations reduced imports.

Last week, the UK also expanded its sanctions to include two Chinese energy firms involved in handling Russian oil, alongside measures against Rosneft and Lukoil.

The sanctions pushed energy markets higher on Thursday, with WTI settling $2.31 higher at $60.81 per barrel and Brent crude up $2.38 to $64.97.

Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Lower
Across Asia, markets mirrored Wall Street’s weakness as investors digested the sanctions and awaited fresh economic guidance from China.

In Beijing, Communist Party leaders concluded a key meeting that will define policy priorities for the next five years, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index edged 0.2% lower to 25,738.00. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to 3,886.19 following reports that Washington may tighten export restrictions on products developed using US software.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3% to 48,683.84, weighed down by reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a stimulus package exceeding ¥14 trillion (approximately $92 billion). SoftBank Group shares sank more than 4% after announcing plans to issue US dollar and euro-denominated bonds to fund its artificial intelligence investments.

Takaichi’s preference for maintaining near-zero interest rates contributed to a weaker yen, which slipped to ¥152.37 per US dollar from ¥151.94 previously.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.9% to 3,849.87, Taiwan’s Taiex slipped 0.4%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.1%. In contrast, India’s Sensex climbed 0.8%.

Debt, Inflation, and Fed Policy in Focus
In the US, attention is turning to macroeconomic risks and fiscal concerns. The September consumer inflation report, delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, is now expected on Friday. With official data releases disrupted, the reading is viewed as a key indicator ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, where markets remain divided on the likelihood of another quarter-point rate cut.

Meanwhile, the US national debt surpassed $38 trillion, the fastest $1 trillion increase outside the pandemic period. Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model warned that sustained debt growth could fuel inflation and erode consumer purchasing power. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) added that rising debt could lead to higher borrowing costs, lower wages, and push prices for goods and services even higher.

Outlook: Volatility Set to Intensify
With corporate earnings, oil sanctions, and inflation data all dominating the headlines, investors are bracing for heightened volatility through to the end of the week. As the Federal Reserve, energy markets, and global policymakers navigate tightening conditions, traders will be closely watching how these factors shape the global economic outlook heading into the final months of 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th October 2025.

Global Markets Climb on Trade Hopes, Earnings Boost, and Inflation Signals.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Bull_featured
Global equity markets enjoyed a broad advance, as favourable earnings reports, easing trade tensions and evolving economic data headlines combined to lift investor sentiment.

Trade Truce Hopes Spur Asian Gains
Asian share markets rose on Friday after the White House confirmed that Donald Trump will meet with Xi Jinping next week, a move that helped ease fears of a full-scale US-China trade war.
Chinese and Hong Kong benchmarks climbed, with tech-heavy indices gaining ground after a major policy meeting wrapped up without significant shifts.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rebounded strongly, aided by technology stocks and the favourable trade-signal environment. South Korea’s Kospi surged to a fresh record on the back of the same optimism.
In contrast, Australia’s markets were relatively flat after data showed the manufacturing sector had slipped into contraction (PMI 49.7 in October versus 51.4 in September).

US Earnings Drive Risk Appetite
Earnings from major US firms provided another key tailwind. The chemical manufacturer Dow Inc. jumped about 12.9% after reporting strong earnings, while Las Vegas Sands rallied roughly 12.4% following better-than-expected profits and revenue. Meanwhile, Tesla Inc. gained 2.3% despite a profit miss, supported by stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue growth.With the S&P 500 having risen around 35% since April, investors are increasingly focused on whether companies can deliver profits that justify such elevated valuations.

Inflation and Commodities: Mixed Signals
In Japan, core consumer inflation rose to 2.9% year on year in September (up from 2.7% in August), underscoring persistent price pressures.Still, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to maintain rates, given Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s preference for low borrowing costs.
Oil prices jumped roughly 5.5% amid new US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, contributing to global energy sector gains.
Gold saw a slight pullback, slipping around 0.4%, while the US dollar rose modestly against the yen and the euro.
Yields on US Treasuries also edged higher ahead of a key inflation report, signalling some caution despite the upbeat tone in equities.

What It All Means

1. The confirmation of the Trump-Xi meeting has sparked a relief rally in markets, as traders view even progress towards a deal more favourably than a stalemate.
2. Strong corporate earnings help validate market valuations and boost risk appetite, but the bar remains high moving forward.
3. Inflation data and central-bank policy remain key watchpoints. Even though Japan’s inflation is above target, the BOJ is likely to hold off on tightening unless wage growth becomes more robust.
4. Mixed manufacturing signals, such as Australia’s contraction in factory activity, underscore that global growth risks persist.
5. Continued sanctions and geopolitical developments (e.g., in energy) mean commodity and currency markets may continue influencing market sentiment.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...3.original.png


Outlook for Traders & Investors

1. Monitor the upcoming US inflation print: disappointing data could dampen risk appetite or shift central bank expectations.
2. Watch earnings from other major US companies to assess whether the profit cycle remains intact.
3. In Asia, keeping tabs on how the Trump-Xi meeting translates into concrete policy or trade progress, markets may react strongly to any de-escalation or further friction.
4. For FX and commodity traders, stay alert to movements in the dollar, yen, crude oil and gold, these continue to act as sentiment barometers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th October 2025.

The Nikkei225 Soars as Takaichi’s Policies and Trade Truce Boost Investor Optimism.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...aaf7198cd5e568

On Monday, the Nikkei225 rose above 50,000 for the first time in its history driven by investor optimism. The Nikkei225 is the best-performing index of 2025 so far, having risen 28.65%. The Nikkei225 is currently trading with gains 9% higher than the DAX, the second best-performing index of 2025. However, the Japanese Yen is showing the opposite trend, so what is driving these key market movements?

Japan and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
Sanae Takaichi officially became Prime Minister on 21 October. Mrs Takaichi is a firm believer in expansionary fiscal policy despite being a conservative. A key issue for Japan is its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate which is only 0.1%. The growth rate has been on a downward trajectory since the 1970s and continues to pose a challenge for Japan. However, many investors believe Takaichi has the boldness needed to reverse these trends.

She plans to roll out targeted fiscal stimulus, supporting key industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, removing the provisional gasoline tax, and offering winter utility subsidies. In addition to this, the new Prime Minister is looking to strengthen ties with China and regional economies, as well as expand Japan’s Self-Defence Forces for the first time since the Second World War.

Many economists believe these measures are likely to stimulate economic growth and boost Japanese companies. These moves are also likely to weaken the negative impact of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate increases. For this reason, demand for the Nikkei225 is significantly increasing and is on track to record its strongest year-on-year performance since 2013.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
NIKKEI225: 20-Year Performance (YoY)

Inflation, Trade And Investor Sentiment
The US and China have agreed to pause plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. At the same time, China will delay implementing stricter export controls on rare earths bound for the US. Another element of the agreement is that China will resume purchases of US soybeans and other agricultural products. Previously, this trade had almost come to a standstill.

The trade agreements made between President Trump and Xi had a positive impact not only on the Nikkei225 but also across the global equity markets. All indices are trading higher, while the VIX has fallen by 4%. The decline in the VIX highlights the market’s renewed “risk-on” sentiment.

Lastly, global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings released on Friday, alongside lower US inflation data, supported global demand. Germany, the UK and the US all saw their PMI figures rise above expectations. In addition to this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.9% to 3.00% (the forecast has been for 3.1%). As inflation came in lower than expected, investors now anticipate more frequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Bank of Japan and The Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing currency. This is primarily due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates as much as previously anticipated. In addition to this, Japan’s expansionary fiscal policy is fuelling concerns over the country’s high debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the weaker Japanese Yen is making the Nikkei225 more attractive to foreign investors.

Current expectations are that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. A pause would likely support the Nikkei225, but traders will continue to monitor price action for signals of potential trends ahead.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
Nikkei225 Daily Chart

The index is currently trading above the 75-Period Moving Average and 100-Period moving averages. In addition to this, the price is showing a buy signal on the RSI, while swings continue to form higher highs above previous key levels. As a result, the Nikkei225 (JPN225) maintains a bullish bias. However, traders should note that this could shift in the short-term if the price falls below 49,693.50.

Key Takeaways:

1. The Nikkei225 hit 50,000 for the first time, making it 2025’s best-performing global index.
2. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-growth fiscal policies have boosted investor confidence and market optimism.
3. The US–China trade truce lifted global markets, supporting bullish trends and strengthening risk appetite.
4. A weaker yen continues to support Japanese stocks but raises concerns over Japan’s rising debt levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th October 2025.

Market Confidence Sinks Gold, But Will It Continue?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold-featured

Gold prices continue to decline for a second consecutive week, now trading 10% lower than their previous high. The key bearish drivers for gold are the reduced safe haven demand and the stronger US Dollar. However, traders are evaluating how low the price will fall before losing momentum.

Investors are closely watching two major events this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2) and a high-profile meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Seoul later in the week. These events are expected to set the tone for global markets, influencing currency movements, bond yields, and risk sentiment. As a result, these events are having a strong influence on Gold prices.

Most economists anticipate that, given the recent signs of labour market cooling and moderate inflation, which came in at 3.0% in September, slightly below expectations of 3.1%. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Policymakers are also expected to signal a continued ‘dovish’ stance into December, emphasising flexibility and support for economic stability. The move would mark another step toward easing monetary conditions amid slowing growth momentum.

However, traders should note that increasing interest rates are fully priced into Gold according to analysts. As a result, the effect of interest rates is significantly lower than in previous weeks. Experts advise that a rate cut for January is not priced into the market. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 48% chance of a rate cut in January. If this increases, Gold may attempt a further bullish increase.

Meanwhile, optimism is growing around the upcoming US–China talks. Chinese representative Li Chengang confirmed that preliminary agreements have been reached on several key areas, including exports, transport fees, and curbing illegal fentanyl production. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the threat of 100% import tariffs has been lifted, while President Trump announced his intention to sign the trade deal.

Analysts suggest that China may delay stricter export controls on rare earth metals for at least a year, while Washington could roll back some tariffs, paving the way for continued negotiations on the broader agreement. For this reason, the trade tensions are no longer adding to Gold’s previous bullish trend.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart

According to the 200-period Moving Average, the price of Gold has now declined enough to move into range-bound trading conditions. However, momentum-based technical indicators continue to point towards a continued decline. The bearish signal is likely to remain in place for as long as the price remains below $4,019.00. Lastly, technical analysts also note that the price is trading at the support level from October 9th.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Gold extends losses: Prices have dropped for a second week, now 10% below recent highs amid weaker safe-haven demand and a stronger U.S. dollar.
2. Focus on key events: The Fed’s rate decision and Trump–Xi meeting are driving market sentiment and influencing gold’s direction.
3. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates tomorrow and again in December: analysts expect a 0.25% rate cut.
4. Bearish trend persists: Gold trades below its 200-period moving average, with momentum still pointing lower unless it breaks above $4,019.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th October 2025.

NASDAQ Forecast: Earnings And Market Drivers.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...nasdaq_tuTNBcp

The NASDAQ climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday and surpassed the DAX for the first time in 2025. The NASDAQ is now the second best-performing index of the year so far, behind the Nikkei225 and slightly ahead of the German DAX. The bullish price movement gathered momentum after NVIDIA’s CEO expressed optimism about the artificial intelligence (AI) and Technology sectors.

The trend was also fuelled by expectations of easing US–China trade tensions. Optimism grew further ahead of major quarterly earnings reports from leading technology companies.

Earnings Forecasts-Microsoft and OpenAI Strike New Deal
Market participants are focusing on the quarterly earnings reports from the ‘Magnificent-Seven’. After the market closes, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will all release theirearnings reports. The most influential report will be from Microsoft and Alphabet due to holding a higher weight. Together, the three companies hold a weight of 25%.

 

1. Microsoft - Rose +1.98% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $3.65
2. Alphabet - Fell .67% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $2.26
3. Meta - Rose +0.08% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $6.61

If all three companies exceed expectations and provide upbeat guidance for the next quarter, the NASDAQ is likely to maintain its bullish momentum. Lastly, on Thursday investors will shift their attention to earnings reports from Apple and Amazon, which are also part of the ‘Magnificent-Seven’.

One of the reasons why Microsoft has seen stronger gains over the past 24 hours is the new agreement with OpenAI. The new agreement allows the ChatGPT creator to shift from its non-profit origins and prepare for a potential IPO to fund Sam Altman’s ambitious AI and data centre plans. Under the new structure, OpenAI will operate as a public benefit corporation still overseen by a nonprofit. Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely route to raise the funds needed for advanced AI development.

Microsoft stocks are also rising a further 0.50% during this morning’s pre-market trading session.

NVIDIA and Jensen Wong
Investor sentiment has improved significantly with President Trump’s Asia tour, his agreement with China, and the upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, another key price driver has been NASDAQ’s most influential stock: NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, told journalists that he has no concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Mr Huang stated that NVIDIA's latest chips remain strong and on schedule.He also revealed that, due to US export controls, NVIDIA’s market share in China has dropped from 95% to effectively zero, remarking ‘we are 100 % out of China.’

NVIDIA’s stocks rose 4.98% on Tuesday and have since gained a further 1.69% during this morning’s Asian Session. NVIDIA is due to release its quarterly earnings report on 19 November after the market closes. The stock has risen 45% so far in 2025.

Federal Reserve
Investors are focused on tonight’s US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% is widely expected to support a cooling labour market. With inflation steady at 3.0%, the Fed has room to ease policy, although uncertainty remains due to limited economic data. Markets will also watch for signals of another potential rate cut later this year and in January.

NASDAQ (US100)-Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
NASDAQ Daily Chart


The NASDAQ continues to form higher highs and higher lows following the classic bullish trend pattern. The index is also trading above the main trendlines as well as above the day’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Most momentum-based indicators continue to point towards further upward price movement.

However, investors should also be aware of the risks associated with the prices trading at all-time highs as well as a potential change in sentiment if earnings reports fail to meet expectations. A decline of more than 5% would suggest that the upward trend may be at risk.

Key Takeaways:

1. NASDAQ hits a new all-time high, surpassing the DAX and becoming 2025’s second-best-performing index behind the Nikkei 225.
2. Tech optimism surges after NVIDIA’s CEO dismisses AI bubble fears, while Microsoft and OpenAI announce a major restructuring deal.
3. Focus shifts to ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta expected to drive short-term NASDAQ momentum.
4. The Federal Reserve meeting remains in focus, with a 25-basis-point rate cut expected and investors watching for signals of further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th October 2025.

Alphabet Leads Tech Gains as US–China Deal Lifts Market Sentiment.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...b178023dbd0a53

Investors have plenty to digest this week, with volatile earnings results, interest rate cuts, and hawkish comments from central banks. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have announced their interest rate decisions and held press conferences. In addition, tech giants including Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta have released their quarterly earnings reports.

Some aspects of the latest developments have been positive, while others have been negative. As a result, most asset classes have experienced mixed price movements. However, the main factor driving optimism is the trade agreement between the US and China.

US-China Trade Agreement
US President Donald Trump’s tour of Asia which is drawing to a close. Before returning to the US, President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Busan Airport amid heightened tensions over tariffs, TikTok, and rare earth minerals.

Political analysts have expressed optimism about the outcome of the meeting and comments made from both sides. President Xi stated that the two countries had reached an agreement to resolve ‘major trade issues.’

China has agreed to pause new rare-earth export restrictions for one year, with annual reviews planned. Trump said the issue is ‘settled’ for now, while China has also resumed purchases of US soybean, signaling a renewal in agricultural trade. Maintaining stability is now the main priority, as past periods of trade optimism have often been followed by renewed tariffs and tensions.

This development is having a positive impact on the market’s risk appetite. This is reflected in the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower, and the Put/Call Ratio, which has again declined towards the 0.60 level. However, technical analysts warn that if the Put/Call Ratio falls below 0.60, the stock market may experience profit-taking and resistance.

Earnings Reports
Investors had been eagerly awaiting for the earnings reports from major technology companies. In the first half of the year, the NASDAQ experienced a market decline of 26% and within six months recovered only 6-7%. The index was lagging behind Asian and European stocks with most investors suggesting that the US market required stronger bullish catalysts-potentially from earnings results.

On Wednesday, after market close, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta released their third-quarter earnings reports. The main takeaways are as follows:

Microsoft stocks Fall 3.95% After Earnings Release-the company’s revenue and earnings per share were slightly above expectations but not enough to significantly boost demand. Microsoft’s record $35 billion AI spending raised concerns over margins, while its forecast of persistently high costs unsettled investors.

Alphabet stocks rise 6.70% After Earnings Report-the company's revenue was higher than predictions set by analysts. The Earnings per share came in 7% higher than previous forecasts.

Meta stocks fall 7.40% After Earnings Report-the company was unable to beat earnings and revenue expectations. However, the main concern for investors was that tax-related charges reduced earnings and the company warned that expenses would increase in 2026.

The standout performer was Alphabet which not only impressed with beating earnings expectations but also through user growth. Alphabet reported record quarterly revenue of $102.3 billion, up 16% year on year and above expectations, driven by growth in its Cloud and YouTube divisions. The company’s record $91–93 billion in capital spending highlights its aggressive investment in AI infrastructure.

NASDAQ (US100)-Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
NASDAQ (USA100) 30-Minute Chart

During the US trading session the NASDAQ experienced three major price waves on the shorter timeframes. The first when the Federal Reserve confirmed its decision to cut rates by 0.25% which triggered a brief decline. The price quickly recovered but then fell again as Jerome Powell’s press conference was more hawkish than markets had anticipated. The index later rebounded following the announcement of Alphabet’s earnings report, which drove the price to a new all-time high.

The key support level can be seen at $25,929.30 and the resistance level at $26,287.65. Although the index was unable to maintain its bullish impulse wave momentum, it has remained above key technical levels and the VWAP.

Key Takeaways:

1. Markets remain volatile as investors react to earnings results, rate cuts, and hawkish central bank commentary.
2. The new US-China trade agreement boosts global risk appetite, easing tensions over tariffs and rare-earth exports.
3. Alphabet leads technology gains with strong earnings and record AI investment, while Microsoft and Meta stocks decline.
4. The NASDAQ reaches a new all-time high after Alphabet’s results, supported by optimism despite mixed market sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st October 2025.

Meta Sell-Off Drags S&P 500 Lower, Could Friday Bring a Rebound?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7d7e3f80f05729

The US Dollar Index rose to a three-month high, while the S&P 500 struggles as investors digest the latest earnings reports. Apple and Amazon's earnings per share exceeded expectations, but will Meta’s stocks halt demand? The S&P 500 has fallen for two consecutive days despite earnings while the NASDAQ continues to show bullish trends. Earnings data supported growth on Thursday, aided by Netflix’s latest announcement.

S&P 500-Earnings Reports, AI Ventures, and Stock Splits


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
S&P500 1-Hour Chart


Meta and Alphabet stocks were one of the key reasons why the S&P 500 fell on Thursday. During the Asian session, Alphabet’s stocks rose almost 8% providing early support for the S&P 500. However, during the European and US session the stock lost momentum and ended the day only 2.45% higher. For this reason, the alphabet’s strong earnings report had limited impact on demand even though it significantly improved sentiment.

Furthermore, Meta stocks, which fell more than 11% were the main contributors to the S&P 500 ending the day 0.35% lower. Regarding Meta, the market is struggling to absorb the level of expenses that the company is facing, particularly in relation to AI, taxes, and penalties. According to Meta’s CEO, the company is looking to significantly invest in AI and expenses in the next 2 years are likely to rise.

Overnight, Meta also announced that the company will issue $30 billion in corporate bonds to fund its expansion into AI. The stock is trading 1.20% higher during this morning’s Asian session, however, Meta’s performance will depend on whether the company can convince investors that the ‘venture’ can be successfully monetised.

Amazon is this morning’s best-performing stock after the company beat its earnings expectations. Amazon stocks, which are the 5th most influential within the S&P 500, are trading 13% higher this morning. In addition to this, Apple is also trading slightly higher (2.35%) after beating both earnings and revenue expectations. Apple’s earnings per share came in at $1.85, $0.21 higher than the same period last year.

Lastly, Netflix stocks, which have fallen more than 9% in the past month following its earnings report, are regaining momentum this morning. The stock has risen more than 3% as the company is announcing a 1-for-10 stock split to lower the stock price from $1,089 to $108. The company has stated that the move aims to make the stock more attractive to employees and retail investors. Reports also suggest that Netflix is considering acquiring Warner Bros Discovery, though this has not yet been confirmed.

US Dollar Strength-Are The Fed Bluffing?
The US Dollar Index has risen for three consecutive days as the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve was not necessarily ‘hawkish’, the central bank remains ‘dovish’. However, the comments made were simply not as ‘dovish’ as the markets had hoped. As a result, the US Dollar Index rose higher, particularly as one of its main competitors, the Japanese Yen, fell due to monetary policy weakness.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
US Dollar Index Daily Chart


Ten members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to ease monetary policy, while two opposed the move. Board member Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, whereas Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid preferred to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation concerns.

Following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed may pause further policy changes in December, despite investor expectations for another rate cut before year-end. Powell noted that many FOMC members believe it is important to pause and assess economic conditions before easing further. His comments disappointed markets, and the CME FedWatch Tool now shows that the probability of a December rate cut has fallen from 90% to 67%. Therefore, a cut is still likely, but is not guaranteed as previous thought.

The US Dollar has been this week’s best-performing currency followed by the Australian Dollar. The worst performers so far are the British Pound and Japanese Yen.

Key Takeaways:

1. The US Dollar Index hit a three-month high as the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible policy pause in December.
2. The S&P 500 fell for a second day, pressured by Meta’s 11% decline despite strong results from Apple and Amazon.
3. Meta plans to issue $30 billion in bonds issuance to fund AI expansion, though investors remain sceptical about its profitability.
4. Amazon surged 13% and Apple rose 2.35% after both companies beat earnings expectations.
5. Netflix gained 3% after announcing a 1-for-10 stock split aimed at attracting retail investors and employees.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd November 2025.

Global Markets Open November with Optimism Amid Key Central Bank Decisions and Data Releases.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis..._Bear_November

Global markets began the week on a positive note, with investors aiming to extend October’s rally into November. As fresh central bank decisions, key employment data, and PMI data line up across major economies, traders are watching for clues on how monetary policy and global growth will shape the final stretch of 2025.

Wall Street Extends October’s Momentum
US stock futures climbed early Monday, signalling a continuation of October’s rally. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures added 0.1%.

October was a strong month for equities, with the S&P 500 up 2.3%, the Dow rising 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.7%. Investors continued to favourgrowth and AI-linked stocks, with Big Tech and the ‘Magnificent Seven’ driving gains. Optimism also improved on signs of easing US-China trade tensions, supporting risk appetite.

Washington in Focus as Shutdown Drags On
Despite the upbeat start, focus remains fixed on Washington’s political deadlock. The US government shutdown, now entering its fifth week, continues to delay key economic data-including the highly anticipated US jobs report.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments on the legality of former President Trump’s tariffs, a case that could shape future trade policy.

Earnings season also remains in full swing, with nearly 300 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 results and over 100 more-including Palantir (PLTR), Super Micro (SMCI), and AMD (AMD)-set to announce this week.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1.original.png




Data-Focused Week Ahead
With limited official data available due to the ongoing government shutdown, investors are turning to private-sector surveys for guidance.

This week’s highlights include:

 

1. Monday: Manufacturing PMI data for the US, Eurozone, UK, and Canada.
2. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision and New Zealand employment report.
3. Thursday: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate announcement.
4. Friday: Canada’s employment figures and US consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials are set to speak, although the lack of fresh data complicates the Fed’s assessment ahead of its December meeting.

Several FOMC members are also scheduled to speak, though the ongoing shutdown complicates the Fed’s preparation ahead of its December policy meeting.

The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.4, up slightly from 49.1 in September, while the prices index is forecast at 62.4. Although the sector remains in contractionary territory, the modest rise suggests firms are adapting to trade pressures and clearing backlogs.

Analysts at Wells Fargo note that while input costs and tariffs continue to weigh on output, the pace of decline is easing, hinting at early signs of stabilisation in US manufacturing.

Australia: RBA Expected to Hold Rates as Inflation Still Running Hot
The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady this week, as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against early signs of a softer labour market. Analysts suggest another rate cut could come as early as February, though this would depend on a further cooling in employment conditions.

While inflation remains above the target range, policy is already restrictive, and the central bank is seen continue its easing cycle into next year. Westpac forecasts a 25 bp rate cut in May 2026, followed by additional reductions later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to around 3.10%.

Unemployment is projected to rise toward 4.6% by late 2026, with consumer spending expected to weaken if monetary conditions remain tight.

New Zealand: Labour Market Loosens Further
In New Zealand, employment is expected to grow 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with the unemployment rate rising modestly from 5.2% to 5.3%.

Analysts at Westpac note that while monthly hiring has stabilized, job creation continues to lag behind population growth, creating a slack in the labour market. As a result, wage growth has cooled, aligning more closely with inflation near 2%-a sign that pressures in the job market are gradually easing.



United Kingdom: BoE to Keep Cautious Tone
The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%, maintaining a careful balance between persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the broader economy.

Services inflation remains elevated, even as wage growth cools and the labour market softens. Recent GDP data exceeded expectations, although looming fiscal tightening in the upcoming Autumn Budget (26 November) could weigh on growth and reinforce the disinflationary trend.

Markets will closely watch the BoE’s updated forecasts and tone for any hints of a rate cut at the December meeting, though officials are likely to signal patience.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png




Canada: Job Market Steady Despite Recent Swings
Canada’s upcoming jobs report is expected to show a 4,000 decline in employment, following a 60,400 surge in September, with the jobless rate seen ticking up to 7.2%. However, RBC expects a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs, citing stable online job postings and limited layoffs.

Job losses have been concentrated in manufacturing and transport, while broader employment remains firm. Despite a surprise GDP dip in August, revisions to prior months suggest the economy remains on track for 0.5% quarterly growth in Q4.

Attention will also turn to Tuesday’s federal budget, where potential fiscal measures could provide additional support for growth into 2025.


Gold Retreats Below $4,000 After China’s Tax Shift
Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Monday after China removed a key tax incentive for local retailers. Beijing’s decision, announced Saturday, ends the ability for retailers to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The move triggered a 1% decline in Asian trading, extending gold’s retreat from record highs earlier in October. Despite the correction, gold remains over 50% higher year-to-date, supported by central bank demand and safe-haven flows.

‘China’s tax changes may dent sentiment temporarily,’ said Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, ‘but this could offer traders a welcome opportunity for a deeper correction after last month’s spike.’

Outlook
The week ahead promises a dense mix of economic releases and central bank decisions that could set the tone for November. With the US government shutdown limiting official data and global policymakers signalling a cautious stance, traders will look to private surveys and corporate earnings for direction.

As 2025 enters its final stretch, the market’s ability to sustain October’s optimism may hinge on whether growth remains resilient in the face of policy uncertainty and fading stimulus.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th November 2025.

Asian Markets Retreat as Traders Lock in Profits Despite AI Optimism.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...?file=AI-tools

Asian shares retreated on Tuesday, tracking losses in US futures, as investors across the region took profits after a strong rally driven by AI-related optimism in global markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% to 51,497.20, slipping back after a national holiday and following recent record highs. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.4% to 4,121.74, reversing from its own recent rally, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.9% to 8,813.70.

In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index erased early gains to end 0.6% lower at 25,983.29, and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.4% to 3,960.19, as investors booked profits amid caution over the sustainability of the AI-driven tech surge.

Wall Street Mixed as AI Heavyweights Power Gains
Overnight, US markets posted mixed results as AI enthusiasm once again lifted major indices. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, edging closer to last week’s all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, slipped 0.5%, or 226 points, reflecting pressure from non-tech sectors.

Nvidia remained a dominant force, rising 2.2% to extend its year-to-date gain to 54%. Amazon surged 4% after announcing a $38 billion partnership with OpenAI, under which the AI firm will use Amazon’s cloud infrastructure for its workloads.

AI-related momentum also lifted IREN, which jumped 11.5% after securing a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft that grants access to Nvidia’s chips. Palantir Technologies, up 165% year-to-date prior to earnings, added another 3.3% ahead of its results.

Concerns Over Valuations and Earnings Sustainability
Despite the ongoing tech rally, analysts are voicing concerns that the AI sector’s valuations may be overheating, drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000. Still, corporate results have largely supported the gains-80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded analysts’ profit forecasts so far, according to FactSet.

With two-thirds of quarterly results in, companies in the S&P 500 are on pace for nearly 11% year-on-year earnings growth, keeping investors cautiously optimistic.

However, some deals raised eyebrows on Wall Street. Kimberly-Clark plunged 14.6% after announcing the $48.7 billion acquisition of Kenvue, which rallied 12.3% on the news. The transaction has sparked debate about the cost and strategic value of large-cap consumer deals in a tightening economic environment.

Economic Headwinds: Manufacturing and Tariff Pressures
Economic sentiment was dented by a disappointing US manufacturing report, which showed activity contracting more sharply than expected in October. Several manufacturers cited tariff-related pressures under President Donald Trump’s administration, highlighting the impact of trade policies on input costs.

Investors are also growing concerned about delays in key US economic data releases, including the non-farm payrolls report, due to the ongoing government shutdown in Washington.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8.original.png

Futures Point to a Lower US Open
In early Tuesday trading, US benchmark crude slipped $0.21 to $60.84 a barrel, while Brent crude fell $0.22 to $64.67. The US dollar weakened slightly, trading at 153.64 against the Japanese yen from 154.21 earlier. The euro was marginally softer at 1.1524.

Ahead of the New York session, US stock futures signaled weakness, suggesting a cautious open. Dow futures dropped 0.5%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.1%, reflecting potential profit-taking after tech’s strong start to the week.

As investors digest fresh earnings from AMD, Uber, Spotify, and Supermicro later today, the focus remains squarely on whether AI and cloud-related spending can continue to justify elevated market valuations amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainties.

Key Takeaway
While the AI revolution continues to drive enthusiasm and lift major US benchmarks, signs of profit-taking in Asia, valuation anxiety, and economic headwinds suggest markets could be entering a period of consolidation. Traders are now watching whether the next wave of corporate earnings, and Washington’s ability to resolve the shutdown, will sustain investor confidence or trigger a broader pullback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th November 2025.

Tech Sell-off and Bitcoin Crash: Is Market Euphoria Finally Cooling?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2de414cddc25ea

The global rally in stocks and cryptocurrencies is facing its first serious test in months. Sharp declines in major technology shares and a wave of Bitcoin liquidations have shaken investor confidence, prompting questions over whether markets are simply taking a breather, or signalling something deeper.

Tech Stocks Lead the Market Pullback
Asian and US markets turned lower this week as technology-heavy indices erased part of their 2025 gains. Seoul and Tokyo exchanges fell nearly 5% from Tuesday’s peaks, while the Nasdaq dropped 2%, with futures pointing to further weakness.

The hardest-hit names were those that had led the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia, once crowned the world’s most valuable company, slid 4%, extending its decline to 7% below last month’s record. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies dropped 8% despite strong earnings, highlighting just how stretched valuations have become.

Fund managers suggest the downturn reflects profit-taking rather than panic, a typical pattern as investors lock in gains ahead of year-end. As Angus McGeoch from Barrenjoey noted, ‘Managers don’t want to give up too much, but if the market rebounds, they’ll be quick to re-enter.’

Even after the decline, the Nasdaq remains over 50% higher since April, suggesting that the broader uptrend is still intact.

AI Stocks: Reset or Reality Check?
The correction has reignited the debate over whether the AI-driven stock rally has overheated. Wall Street executives, including those from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have warned of potential pullbacks after a year of rapid gains.

Adding to the caution, South Korea’s regulator issued a standard warning on SK Hynix, which has tripled in a year but has now lost 6% in two days. Saxo Bank’s Charu Chanana called the move ‘healthy,’ adding that a short-term reset is preferable to a larger market unwind later.





https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6.original.png



Bitcoin Mirrors the Market’s Mood
The cryptocurrency market has followed a similar pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 20% from its October record above $126,000, briefly dipping below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June.

Long-term holders have liquidated an estimated $41.6 billion in BTC, marking one of the largest sell-offs in recent memory. This wave of selling has been accompanied by mounting pressure on miners, whose profitability has hit its lowest point in months due to rising energy costs and falling rewards.

Over $1.3 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in just 24 hours, underscoring the severity of the correction. However, some contrarian investors have stepped in to buy the dip, showing that long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains resilient.

Macro Developments: Trade Relief Meets Policy Uncertainty
Interestingly, the Bitcoin sell-off coincides with a positive geopolitical development. China’s decision to suspend additional tariffs on US goods for one year has eased trade tensions, removing a major source of market anxiety.

However, optimism is tempered by domestic political instability in the US, including a prolonged government shutdown and ongoing uncertainty around future digital asset regulations. These factors have combined to create a highly volatile environment for both equities and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin and Stock Market Technical Outlook
On the charts, Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) around $102,900 remains a key support level. Historically, this line has acted as a springboard for previous recoveries. A decisive break below $100,000 could open the door towards $94,000 or even $85,000, according to InvestingHaven and Sevens Report analysts.

For equities, investors are watching whether the tech sector can stabilise and reassert leadership. If so, the pullback could quickly prove to be a buying opportunity rather than the start of a bear trend.

The Bottom Line: A Healthy Pause in an Overheated Market
Both the stock and crypto markets are experiencing their first meaningful correction after months of relentless gains. For now, analysts view this as a healthy reset, not a crisis.

While uncertainty around regulation, earnings, and policy remains, easing trade tensions and robust long-term trends in AI and blockchain continue to support the broader bullish narrative.

In other words, this may not be the end of the rally, just the market catching its breath.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th November 2025.

BoE’s Dovish Hold Sets Stage for December Cut as GBPUSD Forms Bearish ‘M’ Pattern.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ound2_Featured

The Bank of England kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.00%, but the decision came through an unusually close 5-4 split vote, with four members already favouring a rate cut. The narrow margin underlines a growing shift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) towards easing policy sooner rather than later, likely as early as December.

A Dovish Hold with a Divided Committee
The BoE’s policy statement revealed a notably softer tone, acknowledging that inflation risks have become less pressing and that domestic price pressures are easing faster than expected. Governor Andrew Bailey said the outlook is now ‘more balanced,’ though he remains cautious, insisting the Bank needs ‘further evidence’ before moving on rates.

Among the nine MPC members, Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra and Taylor voted for a 25 bps cut, arguing that monetary conditions have become too restrictive amid weakening demand and signs of fading inflation momentum. In contrast, Mann and Pill warned that premature easing could risk inflation persistence, preferring to maintain the current stance.

The BoE’s revised guidance, now saying rates are ‘likely to continue on a gradual downward path,’ omitting the previous ‘careful’ qualifier, reinforces expectations for a rate cut in December, especially once the autumn budget passes.

GBPUSD Reaction: Up but Off Highs
Despite the dovish tilt, GBPUSD initially climbed to 1.31, buoyed by broad USD weakness and expectations that the BoE’s gradual easing path might still offer near-term support to sterling. However, the pair later retreated towards 1.3065, reflecting profit-taking and a shift in risk sentiment following a sharp rise in US job-cut data.

US Challenger announced job cuts spiked 153.1k in October following the 54k increase in September. It is the largest gain for an October since 2003. Technology and warehousing led the jump. For the year-to-date, announced layoffs total 1.09k. The y/y pace surged to a 175.3% clip from -25.8% previously. Challenger noted some companies are downsizing after the pandemic boom. But AI, weaker consumer and business spending, and rising costs are factors too. Announced hirings increased 165.8k following September's 115.8k gain. Technology led the way with 250k, followed by retail at 16k.

This was the largest October increase since 2003, a stark reminder that AI-driven restructuring and post-pandemic corrections are cooling the job market. The US dollar index (DXY) fell back below 100 following the data.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png





Technical Picture: ‘M’ Formation Points to Potential Downside

On the daily chart, GBPUSD has formed a clear ‘M’ formation, a classic double-top pattern signalling the long-term trend exhaustion. The neckline currently sits near 1.3150, and a confirmed continuation below this level could open the door toward the 1.27-1.28 area, especially if market sentiment turns risk-off or if US data support a dollar rebound. For now, the USD seems to have run out of steam.

From a risk management perspective, sellers currently hold a better risk-to-reward setup near the 1.3150 resistance and the major downward trendline, aiming to target new lows if the bearish momentum extends below 1.3000. Buyers, on the other hand, will look for a decisive breakout above 1.3140 to gain conviction and potentially extend the pullback toward new highs.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe
On the 4-hour chart, the price action remains more constrained. The two key resistance zones are still clustered around 1.3140 and 1.3250, where the major descending trendline comes into play. Until a breakout occurs on either side, short-term traders are likely to see choppy consolidation, with intraday momentum dictated by incoming US labour and inflation data.

Outlook
The BoE’s dovish split marks a turning point for UK monetary policy, signalling that the next move is down, not up. With inflation decelerating and growth subdued, the Bank seems ready to prioritise supporting demand over tightening further.

Still, the pound’s direction in the coming weeks will hinge on two key drivers:

 

1. The December BoE meeting, confirmation of a cut could accelerate sterling weakness.
2. US data trajectory, further signs of labour market stress or Fed dovishness could offset sterling downside through a softer dollar.

For now, traders will be watching the 1.3050 neckline and 1.3140 resistance closely. A sustained break below the former could validate the M-formation and accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound above the latter might signal the start of a corrective rally before December’s pivotal BoE decision.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th November 2025.

Stocks Struggle Due to US Shutdown and AI fears.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=US_featured_jDdG66v

The NASDAQ drops to a 2-week low as investors grow uneasy about high tech valuations during the ongoing US government shutdown. The lack of employment data is also concerning investors, as neither the market nor the Fed are able to appropriately price the market. The US ADP Employment Change is the only employment figure still being made public. The figure rose above expectations and read higher than the previous month.

NASDAQ-US Shutdown Creating a Low Risk Appetite
The NASDAQ fell by 1.75% on Thursday and is the worst-performing index of the week along with the Nikkei 225. When analysing the individual stocks within the NASDAQ, the downward price movement is not necessarily being caused by large losses. The real damage lies in the limited number of stocks showing gains or even maintaining their value. From the most influential stocks, only 11% rose in value on Thursday.

For this reason, analysts can see the price is not being pulled down by a limited number of stocks experiencing high losses but the overall market sentiment. The main concern for the market is the ongoing US shutdown (38 days) which is now the longest in history. In addition to this, investors are concerned that the price is trading very close to all-time highs while significant risks within the market remain.

Senate Republicans plan a key vote this afternoon on a funding bill to extend operations beyond November 21st. However, talks remain stalled as Democrats push for renewed health-care subsidies, which Republicans oppose.

In addition to the US shutdown, AI is also another concern, particularly after the NVIDIA CEO said in a recent interview that China may win the ‘AI race’ due to lower energy costs and access to materials.

Live Market Analysis





AI Doubts & Expenses Pressuring the NASDAQ
Rising fears of an AI valuation bubble have sparked sell-offs across major tech stocks. Even strong earnings from companies like Palantir failed to reassure investors, who now question the sustainability of AI-driven growth. Meanwhile, Meta’s soaring AI infrastructure costs have fuelled concerns over low returns and increasing risk.

On Thursday, Palantir Technologies fell by 6.85% and AMD fell by 7.25%. The stock which saw the strongest gains was Datadog, which rose by 23% due to strong earnings. However, Datadog stocks only hold a weight of 0.21%.

US Supreme Court Hearing on Tariffs
Investors are watching the US Supreme Court review of the Republican administration’s trade tariffs. Justices questioned Trump’s authority, noting that the tariffs act as a new tax on businesses and consumers and expand executive power over Congress. The announcement and final decision are likely to create high volatility amongst US stocks and the US Dollar.

No ruling has been issued, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House will seek alternative protectionist measures if the decision is negative.

NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis
The price of the NASDAQ is now trading at the resistance level which has been flipped into a support. This is a well-known support level. However, if the price does not find support here, the next support level can be found at $24,009, which is almost 5% lower than the current price.





https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/Copy_of_TELEGRAM_-_2025-11-07T102428_mZ25E9k.width-800.png
NASDAQ (USA100) 2-Hour Chart


On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main moving averages and in line with the VWAP. The price is also forming clear lower lows and lower highs. For this reason, technical analysis is pointing towards continued price weakness. However, if the NASDAQ rises above $25,512, the bearish bias starts to fade.

Key Takeaways:

1. NASDAQ falls 1.75% to a 2-week low, driven by weak market sentiment amid the 38-day US government shutdown.
2. Limited stock gains, not large losses, are causing the downturn; only 11% of the most influential NASDAQ stocks rose on Thursday.
3. AI concerns and rising infrastructure costs at companies like Meta fuel fears of an AI valuation bubble.
4. Investors monitor the US Supreme Court tariff review, which could trigger volatility in US stocks and the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th November 2025.

Bitcoin Holds the Line at $100,000: Support or Stall?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=btc_BTkJdDF
After several weeks under selling pressure, Bitcoin seems to be finding its footing. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has paused its decline around the $100,000 level, an area reinforced by the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, two key indicators that often act as major long-term supports.
This confluence suggests that BTC’s current range may represent a short-term floor, though momentum remains fragile.
On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillator continue to trend lower, with the latter nearing oversold territory. The MACD also remains deep in negative territory, underlining persistent bearish sentiment.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png

Yet, the daily chart shows tentative improvement. The Stochastic has begun recovering from oversold levels, while the RSI edges towards neutral ground. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are nearing a potential bullish crossover, a setup that, if confirmed, could open the door for renewed upside momentum.
Key levels to watch:

1. Support: $104,000 and $100,000 (50-week SMA and lower Bollinger Band)
2. Resistance: $106,500 and $109,000

Bitcoin appears to be stabilising, but a convincing recovery will require sustained strength above the $109,000-$112,000 area.

The Bigger Picture: Can the Bulls Reclaim Control?
Bitcoin’s recent pause coincides with a modest recovery in risk appetite, a mix of technical consolidation and cautious macro optimism. Renewed hopes for a US government shutdown lifted crypto alongside equities. Still, this isn’t a story of quick rebounds, it’s about whether the right combination of technical signals, liquidity, and investor sentiment can realign to invite bulls back before year-end.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1.original.png
Fundamentals: A Market Catching Its Breath
Hovering around the $100,000 psychological level, Bitcoin sits at a crucial point between consolidation and recovery. The short-term holder cost basis near $112,500 marks a key boundary, breaking above it could confirm renewed accumulation.
Roughly 71% of BTC supply remains in profit, which historically signals a mid-cycle cooldown rather than a full bear market. Yet momentum has cooled: long-term holders have offloaded more than 300,000 BTC since July, a rare occurrence hinting at fatigue rather than panic.
Despite the slowdown, the broader picture remains stable. The Relative Unrealised Loss ratio sits near 3%, suggesting traders remain defensive but not distressed. In essence, traders seem to be hedging exposure rather than exiting positions, a sign of consolidation, not collapse.

BTC Market Structure: The Hidden Drivers of Volatility
Beyond headlines and price swings, deeper market mechanics are shaping Bitcoin’s recent behaviour. Shifts in funding rates, collateral settings, and ETF hedging activity have become key drivers of short-term volatility.
October’s shakeout, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions, underscored how changes in derivatives spreads can move Bitcoin as sharply as any macro event. When basis spreads widen, arbitrage traders tend to buy spot and short futures, reducing exchange supply and lifting prices. When those spreads compress, the unwind has the opposite effect, adding supply and pressure.

ETF Flows: Demand Slowly Returns
After six consecutive sessions of outflows totalling $660 million, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have finally flipped back to net inflows, with around $240 million entering the market. While one day of green doesn’t erase a week of red, it signals a possible turning point, the largest institutional buyers may be shifting back to accumulation.
ETF flows are now one of the clearest barometers of real demand. A sustained streak of five to ten days of inflows could ease mechanical sell pressure and re-establish a structural bid capable of pushing BTC back above key resistance levels around $112,000-$113,000. Until then, investors remain cautiously optimistic.

Liquidity: The Hidden Bullish Catalyst
The global liquidity backdrop is quietly becoming more supportive. The world’s broad money supply has climbed to a record $142 trillion, up nearly 7% year-on-year, while signals from the New York Fed suggest that quantitative tightening may soon pause, or even reverse.
If central banks maintain looser liquidity conditions, Bitcoin could again act as a magnet for both speculative and institutional capital, mirroring earlier reflation phases when ample cash searched for higher returns in crypto and equities.

Holder Activity: Conviction, Not Capitulation
Recent headlines about ‘OG whale dumping’ only tell part of the story. On-chain data reveals that much of this movement stems from address upgrades, custody migrations, or collateral use, not mass liquidation.
Meanwhile, ETF investors have shown remarkable resilience, holding through a 20% correction without significant withdrawals. The takeaway? Conviction hasn’t disappeared, it’s simply shifting hands, from long-time holders to more structured, institutional participants.
As liquidity builds and ETF demand stabilises, Bitcoin’s foundation appears solid, even if sentiment is still recovering.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: What’s Next for BTC?
The $100,000 level remains a pivotal line in the sand. A decisive bounce from this zone could reinforce confidence among both short-and long-term participants. A confirmed move above $112,000 could open the path toward a broader recovery, possibly testing $120,000–$125,000 by year-end if ETF inflows persist and liquidity expands globally. Conversely, failure to defend the $100,000 level could trigger another retest toward $95,000, where strong historical support lies.
For now, Bitcoin’s outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by solid structural underpinnings but constrained by weak momentum. Traders and investors should continue to watch ETF flows, liquidity indicators, and key resistance levels to gauge whether this is simply a mid-cycle pause or the start of the next Bitcoin uptrend.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th November 2025.

US Shutdown Ends, Fed Split on Rate Cuts, and UK Data Weighs on the Pound

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...nasdaq_wbsDhvo
The longest government shutdown in the history of the US has officially come to an end. However, even with the shutdown over, today’s inflation report may still be postponed. According to Goldman Sachs, the Bureau of Labor statistics will likely schedule the NFP Employment Change for early next week.

Economists and analysts continue to expect the inflation rate to remain at 3%, with employment continuing to weaken. As a result, the stock market continues to rise, while the US Dollar remains unchanged. The price movement is largely due to its impact on interest rates. However, two members of the Federal Reserve officially came out opposing a rate cut in December.

As a result, the possibilities of a rate cut fell from 66% to 52% according to the Chicago Exchange. Although many economists continue to advise that the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in December.

GBPUSD - Poor Economic Data Continues For the UK
The British Pound continues to decline for a third consecutive day, with downward momentum gaining due to further poor data. The UK’s employment data was originally triggering the downward price movement of the week. This includes the UK’s Unemployment Rate rising to 5% and salary earnings falling 0.2% below expectations. However, today’s UK Gross Domestic Product further increases the downward momentum.

The UK’s Gross Domestic Product fell from 0.0% to -0.1% and below previous expectations. The GDP expectations, which are also made public by the Office For National Statistics, also fell from 0.3% to 0.1%. Since the announcement at 07:00 (GMT), the price of the Pound fell 0.17%, but has since seen up-and-down volatility.

A positive factor for the Pound is Health Minister Wes Streeting de-escalating the latest political tensions. Sources within the Labour Party also reported a possible leadership change, with Health Minister Wes Streeting emerging as a potential candidate. However, Mr Streeting has since advised he has no desire to oust the current UK Prime Minister.

The British Pound is the worst performing currency of the week along with the Japanese Yen. The best performing currency remains the Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar.

NASDAQ - Cisco Beat Earnings Expectations, But Fed Members Oppose a December Cut
The NASDAQ and S&P 500 saw a day marked by contrasting performances between the first and second halves of the day. The NASDAQ rose in value during the Asian and US Sessions but fell during the US session. The decline was largely due to the comments made by two members of the Federal Reserve.

Two Federal Reserve officials voiced opposition to another interest rate cut at the December meeting, adding uncertainty to the Fed’s policy outlook. Previously, members had taken a neutral stance or advised that a cut was not certain. However, in recent weeks this is the first time members have outright opposed a rate cut.

Comments from Susan Collins, President of the Boston Fed, and Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, indicate the rate-setting committee may be shifting away from what was previously expected to be a third consecutive rate reduction next month. If the Federal Reserve does not cut in December, the NASDAQ could decline between 4-7% according to JP Morgan’s Strategists.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ (USA100) 30-Minute Chart


A positive factor for the NASDAQ is the end of the US shutdown officially coming to an end as well as the latest positive earnings reports. Last night, Cisco Systems made public their earnings for the 3rd quarter. The company’s revenue beat expectations by $11 million and earnings beat expectations by $0.02. In addition to this, an important factor for shareholders is the company’s forward-guidance figures were significantly higher than previous data.

Cisco stocks rose 3.14% on Wednesday and a further 7% after the announcement of the company’s earnings. On Wednesday, 58% of the most influential stocks (weight above 0.50%) rose in value with AMD stocks witnessing the strongest gains (+9.00%).



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ Component Performance - 12th Nov


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis
Even with the decline during yesterday’s Asian session the price of the NASDAQ remains above most Moving Averages. The price is also trading slightly above the RSI’s neutral level on the 30-minute timeframe.

The NASDAQ continues to form higher highs and lows, but has not broken above the resistance level at $25,793.00. The price is almost forming a ‘head and shoulders’ price pattern, which would indicate a downward trend. This is something investors will continue to monitor, and if the price falls below $25,570.00, the ‘head and shoulders’ pattern will become more visible. However, if the price rises above $25,662.20, the pattern and bearish signal will fade, and buy signals will strengthen.



Key Takeaway Points:

1. US government shutdown ends, but key economic reports such as inflation and employment data may still face delays.
2. Rate-cut expectations fell from 66% to 52% after two Fed officials publicly opposed a December reduction.
3. Economists and analysts continue to expect the inflation rate to remain at 3%, with employment continuing to weaken.
4. UK economic data disappoints, with GDP contracting by 0.1% and unemployment rising, pressuring the British Pound further.
5. Cisco released its Q3 earnings, beating revenue estimates by $11 million and EPS by $0.02, with stronger forward guidance. Cisco’s stocks rose 7.00%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th November 2025.

Fed Comments Have Traders Fearing a December Pause!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...00x628_o5yQOrE
Doubts continue to grow over the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision impacting both Gold and the stock market. The US shutdown has come to an end, but agencies have not yet released economic data to help investors determine the state of the US economy and employment sector.

Economists are now advising that certain data such as the NFP figures for October, may not be released at all. This would make it even more difficult for the Federal Reserve to determine if a rate cut is necessary. Particularly if no extreme figures are seen for November. According to the Chicago exchange, the possibility of a rate cut in December is at 50%, the lowest in over a month.

NASDAQ (USA100) - Stock Market Declines
The stock market saw its strongest decline of the week yesterday, with the NASDAQ falling by 2.20% and the Dow Jones by 1.65%. The decline is largely being attributed to fears the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged in December.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
NASDAQ (USA100) - Daily Chart


Tech heavyweights also contributed to the decline as investors worried about fewer expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. NVIDIA illustrates this effect clearly. Overall, 84% of the NASDAQ’s most influential stocks fell on Thursday, signalling strong downward momentum.

NVIDIA was one of the main drivers as the stock fell 3.58% and is the most influential stock holding the largest weight. NVIDIA also continued to decline on Friday, with the stock trading 0.50% lower during the Asian session.

A key factor for NVIDIA and the technology market will be NVIDIA’s earnings report on November 19th. Analysts’ expectations vary, with estimates ranging from $1.17 to $1.23. Some forecast stronger results, while others remain cautious. They also note the figure must exceed expectations by at least 5–6% to boost demand.

As per yesterday’s article, a lack of Fed rate cuts may distort the market’s pricing of US indices. In that case, the NASDAQ may continue falling toward $24,303.10. This decline could continue as long as the Fed issues dovish guidance for 2026. If the Federal Reserve takes a more hawkish approach, the decline could potentially be even stronger. However, this is not something which economists are currently indicating. Most economists advise the Federal Reserve will continue to cut, but the frequency is not known.

US Dollar Index - Hawkish Fed Comments Unable to Support The Dollar
The US Dollar continued to decline on Thursday despite the more hawkish tone from the Federal Open Market Committee. However, there is still some concern over the potential for the Dollar to maintain its value while the Fed lowers rates. Reports from the last 24 hours confirm that European officials are exploring the option of pooling Dollars among non-US central banks. This is being done in order to reduce reliance on US funding mechanisms and the US financial system.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
US Dollar Index 3-Hour Chart


The hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve does not yet support the US Dollar Index. However, investors will continue to monitor this. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he supports holding rates steady until inflation shows clear progress. Boston Fed President Susan Collins agreed that rates should remain unchanged while the labour market stays stable.

Collins’ stance is especially notable because she previously voted twice in favour of easing monetary policy, yet now appears more cautious. With these shifting views, a pause in the Fed’s “dovish” cycle in December seems increasingly likely. However, upcoming economic data, set to flow again as the government restarts operations, will play a critical role in shaping officials’ final decisions.

Even a modest uptick in inflation, from 3.0% to 3.1%, could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish position on rate cuts. In such a scenario, the US Dollar may strengthen, while gold and equity markets could face renewed downward pressure.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Market chances for a December rate cut fell to 50%, the lowest in over a month. Stocks and Gold reacted negatively. If the Fed does not cut in December, the NASDAQ may potentially keep falling toward $24,303.10
2. US stocks fell sharply, with NASDAQ down 2.20%, driven by tech heavyweights like NVIDIA.
3. NVIDIA remains a key market driver, with 19 November earnings needing 5-6% above expectations to boost demand.
4. US Dollar Index weakened despite hawkish Fed signals; European officials are considering pooling dollars to reduce reliance on the US.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th November 2025.

The US Reopens. Central Banks Pause. What Happens Next?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...chess_featured
Global Markets Outlook: Uncertainty Persists as the US Reopens and Central Banks Hold Steady
The US government is officially back in operation, but the shutdown has left a mark. Beyond the drag on fourth-quarter growth, the bigger issue now is the integrity of the economic data. Several key surveys were simply not conducted, meaning policymakers may be navigating with only partial visibility for weeks, possibly until 2026. This uncertainty could cloud the Federal Reserve’s view heading into the 9-10 December FOMC meeting. In the meantime, Fed hawks are taking the lead, arguing for a cautious, wait-and-see stance until the labour market and inflation picture becomes clearer.

Elsewhere, central banks are signalling stability, not action. The ECB looks firmly on hold. The BoE’s flexibility is constrained by budget pressures. And in Japan, fiscal and political developments continue to shape the BoJ’s next steps.

United States
This week will finally bring a wave of US economic data back to the markets, with the delayed September nonfarm payrolls report on November 20 expected to attract the most attention. Yet how insightful these releases will be is another question entirely. The information is now outdated, and the October household employment survey may never be recovered. As a result, markets will be relying on older indicators to piece together the state of the economy.

Construction spending, industrial production, factory orders, trade price data, and consumer sentiment will all come through, but the labour market will remain at the center of the debate. Policymakers want to see whether the slowdown in employment is significant enough to justify a rate cut. Hawkish commentary in recent weeks has already pushed expectations lower, with markets now assigning roughly even odds for a cut next month.

Our expectation is for nonfarm payrolls to rise by around 40k, following modest gains in previous months. The unemployment rate is likely to hold steady at 4.3%, while wage growth should maintain a monthly pace of 0.3%, keeping the annual rate at 3.7%. Alternative indicators, from jobless claims to ISM employment components, suggest cooling rather than collapsing labour conditions. If data land in line with these expectations, it would strengthen the argument for holding rates steady.

This week will also be dominated by a packed Fedspeak calendar. Key policymakers, including Jefferson, Waller, Williams, Kashkari, Barr, Barkin, Logan, and Goolsbee, will be delivering remarks across the week. Their commentary following the jobs report will be particularly important, especially for understanding the direction of the December meeting. The release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday adds another layer to an already heavy calendar.

Canada
Canada will release October CPI and retail sales, both of which will be central to shaping expectations for the December 10 Bank of Canada meeting. The economy continues to soften under the weight of global trade pressures, tariffs, and a weakening job market. Inflation has eased, with headline CPI expected to remain slightly above 2% year-over-year, although core inflation is still hovering near 3%. This makes it difficult for the Bank to justify an additional cut without stronger evidence of cooling. Retail sales, which showed a solid increase in August before slipping in September’s advance estimate, will provide further clarity. For now, the odds of either a hold or a cut remain evenly balanced.

Eurozone
ECB officials continue to stress that current interest rates are appropriate, and upcoming data is unlikely to shift that stance. Markets will focus on the flash HCOB PMI reports, where manufacturing activity is expected to inch slightly above the 50 expansion threshold, while services remain comfortably in growth territory. This combination supports the ECB’s narrative of an economy that is not strong, but still resilient.

Inflation should confirm the preliminary reading of 2.1% year-over-year, a figure that aligns closely with the ECB’s target. However, core inflation, and especially services inflation, remains elevated, reinforcing the view that rate cuts are not on the agenda anytime soon. Additional data from Germany, the Eurozone confidence surveys, and French business indicators will offer more insight but are unlikely to alter the overall picture.

United Kingdom
In the UK, fiscal concerns have re-emerged following reports that Chancellor Reeves abandoned plans to raise income taxes. The decision came after more optimistic debt projections from the OBR, but it has reignited concerns about how the government intends to address a remaining fiscal gap estimated at around GBP 20 billion. Markets reacted nervously, particularly on fears that this uncertainty could limit the Bank of England’s ability to cut rates in December.

The November 26 budget will overshadow most other developments this week. Even so, the BoE will be watching the inflation report closely. CPI is expected to ease to 3.6% year-over-year, while core inflation should also decline slightly. Despite remaining above target, the downward trend gives the central bank some room to consider a cut, assuming the budget does not disrupt confidence further.

PMI figures are expected to soften, with services activity dipping but still above 50, while manufacturing may slide deeper into contraction. Retail sales will likely reflect the same cautious spending behaviour seen in recent months, with households saving more and spending less.

Japan
Japan enters an important week with a flood of major economic reports, including GDP, CPI, trade data, production numbers, and machinery orders, arriving ahead of the December 18-19 BoJ meeting. While inflation is expected to remain near the 3% mark, GDP likely contracted sharply by around -2.0%, which supports the argument for keeping policy unchanged. Ongoing uncertainty around fiscal plans under the new Takaichi government adds another reason for a cautious approach. Apart from a few hawkish voices, most policymakers seem in no rush to tighten policy again in the near term.

China
China’s loan prime rate announcements are also due, although no changes are expected. The PBoC has resisted easing, keeping the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, levels last trimmed in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th November 2025.

Stocks Slide: Nvidia, NFP and Asia Shake Up the Week.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_X3l8Cgs
Global financial markets started the week under heavy pressure, with a sharp sell-off in US equities rippling across Asia-Pacific trading. Concerns over overextended tech valuations, a deeper risk-off shift, and two major US events, Nvidia’s earnings and the long-delayed September US jobs report, drove volatility higher across asset classes.

This broad downturn exposed deeper structural anxieties around inflation, interest rates, and the sustainability of the AI-driven rally that has powered equity markets throughout 2024 and 2025.

Wall Street Falls as Volatility Surges and Fear Index Hits Extreme Levels
US markets started the week on the back foot after an aggressive wave of selling hit major indices on Monday.

 

1. Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 557 points (-1.18%)
2. S&P 500 shed 0.92%
3. Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84%

The downturn was accompanied by a spike in volatility indicators:

 

1. The VIX surged about 13%
2. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index plunged into ‘extreme fear’ territory,the lowest reading since early April

Investors were particularly cautious given concerns that the Federal Reserve may alter its rate-cut expectations in light of stubborn inflation and stretched tech valuations.

US futures extended losses early Tuesday:

 

1. S&P 500 futures: -0.6%
2. Dow futures: -0.4%

This indicates risk aversion extending into the next trading session.



Nvidia Earnings Take Centre Stage as AI Trade Faces its Biggest Test
Markets worldwide are focused on Nvidia, which is set to release its earnings on Wednesday. As the flagship of global AI optimism,and a major contributor to the S&P 500’s gains ,Nvidia’s performance could set the tone not only for US equities but for global semiconductor markets.

 

1. Analysts expect quarterly revenue around $54 billion to $55 billion for Q3 FY2026.
2. One commentary described the report as a ‘crucial test for the entire AI market.’
3. Some analysts warn the stock could swing 6-8% upon release.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...0.original.png


Nvidia shares were down about 1.8% Monday, though still up nearly 40% year-to-date. Other AI-linked stocks suffered steeper declines, including Super Micro Computer (-6.4%).

Investors are increasingly questioning whether the AI trade has legs, particularly as the tech-heavy Nasdaq is already down about 5.5% since its late-October record high.

Bitcoin Drops Below $90,000, Extending Six-Week Sell-off
Crypto markets mirrored the negative tone:

 

1. Bitcoin slid below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, losing more than 28% in just six weeks.
2. Crypto-exposed equities also fell sharply: Coinbase (COIN) -7.1%, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) -5.3%.

The decline reflects not only speculative unwinding, but a broader reduction in risk appetite across asset classes.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png


Asian Markets Tumble as US Tech Weakness Spreads Globally
The US tech-led sell-off spilled into Asian trading on Tuesday. Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all heavyweights in global semiconductor supply chains, suffered sharp declines as investors reassessed chip demand and valuations.

Japan: Nikkei Declines as Bond Yields Spike

1. Nikkei 225 fell ~3% by midday
2. Tokyo Electron -5.4%
3. Advantest -4.6%

A key driver was the surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields: 30-year JGB yields hit ~3.31%, the highest in years.
The yen hovered above ¥155 per dollar, near its weakest level since February, and reached its lowest level against the euro since 1999.

Asia: Chip Giants Lead Declines

1. Kospi dropped ~3.1%
2. Samsung Electronics -2.9%
3. SK Hynix -5.7%
   South Korea’s economy, heavily reliant on semiconductors, was especially vulnerable to global tech turmoil.
4. Taiex fell ~2.3%
5. TSMC -2.4%: The global chip demand fears weighed heavily in Taiwan’s market.
6. Hang Seng Index: -1.5%
7. Shanghai Composite: -0.6%
8. ASX 200 (Australia): -2.1%

These markets, though less tech-concentrated, were not immune to the global sell-off.

Fed Expectations Shift as Traders Reassess December Rate-Cut Odds
One of the dominant narratives this week is the reshaping of interest-rate expectations.

Just a month ago, markets priced in about a 94% probability of a December rate cut from the Fed. Today, that probability has sharply fallen to around 45%.
Traders and investors are reacting to:

 

1. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s ~2% target
2. The US government shutdown, which delayed key economic releases
3. Mixed labour-market signals
4. Uncertainty around rate-cut timing

Fed officials have recently suggested that more clarity is needed before proceeding with another cut,in light of weaker data and the end of the shutdown.

Thursday’s US Jobs Report Could Shift the Entire Market Narrative
The delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, now due on Thursday, carries outsized importance this week.
Key points:

 

1. A strong number would reduce the chance of a December rate cut.
2. A weak number would raise recession concerns and could push the Fed to accelerate easing.
3. A mixed print may leave markets in limbo.

Oil, Forex & Global Macro Moves Reflect Risk-Off Mood
Commodity and currency markets also shifted into defensive mode:

 

1. WTI Crude: ~$59.49 (-$0.42)
2. Brent Crude: ~$63.77 (-$0.43)

FX and bond markets responded to the risk-off environment:

 

1. USDJPY ~ 155.08
2. EURUSD ~ 1.1600

With rising yields in Japan and USD weakness, global macro flows tilted toward safe-haven dynamics.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png


Alphabet Buckets the Trend as Berkshire Takes Major Stake
One rare bright spot in Monday’s US session was Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), which gained ~3.1% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new ~$4.34 billion stake.

Warren Buffett’s investment is seen as a value-oriented vote of confidence, providing a counterbalance to the broader technology sell-off.

What Traders Should Watch Next
Markets enter mid-week with a high-stakes setup:

Wednesday:

 

1. Nvidia earnings: the major test of the AI trade
2. Semiconductor sector reaction and global chip supply chain sentiment
   Thursday:
3. US September Non-Farm Payrolls: pivotal for Fed policy and the dollar
4. Potential strong volatility in indices, FX, and crypto
   Friday and beyond (Aftermath):
5. Market digestion of earnings and jobs data
6. Fed commentary and updated rate expectations
7. Continued focus on Asian bond yields and semiconductor earnings

With valuations stretched, volatility elevated, and major catalysts lined up, this week may prove decisive for the direction of global markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th November 2025.

Wall Street Extends Declines as AI Jitters Intensify Ahead of Nvidia Earnings.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c08a48f560c834
Global markets shifted decisively into risk-off mode this week as Wall Street extended its decline for a fourth consecutive session. The sell-off reflects growing concerns over AI-driven valuations, a softening macro backdrop, and uncertainty ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report.

Investor sentiment has deteriorated sharply since early November, with many questioning whether the extraordinary run in AI-linked equities can be sustained. The S&P 500 is now experiencing its worst losing streak since the early stages of this year’s AI bubble fears, as traders reposition cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s key event: Nvidia’s Q3 earnings.

Wall Street Ends Lower but Off Intra-Day Lows
All three major US indices finished Tuesday in the red, though losses were trimmed in afternoon trading:

 

1. NASDAQ: –1.21%
2. S&P 500: –0.82%
3. Dow Jones: –1.07%

The worst performance came from consumer discretionary and information technology, two sectors particularly sensitive to shifts in growth expectations. Adding pressure, Home Depot shares sank more than 6% after disappointing results, amplifying concerns over US consumer resilience heading into the holiday season.

Bonds and Commodities React to Risk Aversion
The drop in equities triggered a flight to safety, with Treasuries drawing renewed demand:

 

1. 2-yr Treasury yield: 3.575% (–3.6 bps)
2. 10-yr Treasury yield: 4.117% (–2.1 bps)

Safe-haven flows also pushed gold up 0.62% to $4,070 per ounce, while oil rebounded 1.35% to $60.70 after briefly touching a multi-month low at $59.31.

Dovish Waller Comments Revive Fed Rate Cut Bets
Market expectations for a December Fed rate cut strengthened meaningfully following comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who noted he ‘cannot envisage not cutting by 25 bps’ in December.

Rate futures reacted immediately:

 

1. December implied cut: –12.6 bps (up from –9.8 bps before Waller’s remarks)
2. January implied cut: –23.1 bps

Soft data from US jobless claims and the ADP employment report further bolstered rate-cut optimism, especially as signs of cooling in the labour market begin to align with the Fed’s objectives. Still, traders remain cautious, December’s outcome is far from guaranteed, and the market currently views the decision as a close call.

Nvidia Earnings: A Pivot Point for the AI Trade
The spotlight now shifts to Nvidia (NVDA), whose earnings report on Wednesday could set the tone for the entire AI complex. Nvidia’s results are often viewed as a barometer for AI demand, given the company’s dominant role in powering cloud-based artificial intelligence workloads.

Market Nervousness Is Rising
Nvidia shares closed 2.81% lower at $181.36 on Tuesday, extending a decline of roughly 12% from its record highs. According to analytics firm ORATS, this earnings event could trigger a market-cap swing of up to $320 billion, the largest potential post-earnings move in the company’s history.

Investors are torn between two competing narratives:

 

1. A beat-and-raise scenario may reinforce concerns about over-investment and inflated expectations.
2. A modest beat might suggest AI demand is stabilising sooner than hoped, raising fears of slowing growth.

Recent sales of Nvidia shares by major players, including Peter Thiel’s hedge fund and SoftBank, have also fuelled caution.

What Wall Street Expects
Q3 consensus forecasts (Bloomberg):

 

1. EPS: $1.26 (vs. $0.81 a year ago)
2. Revenue: $55.2B (vs. $35.1B a year ago)
   1. Data Center: $49.3B
   2. Gaming: $4.4B

3. Gross Margin: 73.62% (vs. 75% last year)

Nvidia continues to model zero revenue from China, with no progress reported on US-China AI chip export negotiations. Given the company’s influence, any surprise, positive or negative, could ripple across semiconductor stocks, cloud providers, and the broader market.

Bitcoin Struggles as ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative Weakens
Bitcoin’s performance continues to disappoint, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency falling nearly 30% from its 2025 peak. The decline has left Bitcoin lagging behind gold, long-term Treasuries, emerging market equities, and even traditionally low-growth sectors like utilities.

On Tuesday, BTC briefly dipped below $90,000, near the average entry price of ETF inflows since launch, before recovering to trade around $93,241.

Why BTC Is Underperforming
Analysts point to several contributors:

 

1. Lingering fallout from October’s crash, which liquidated ~$19B in leveraged positions.
2. Weak risk sentiment stemming from sluggish Asian economic data and tech valuation corrections.
3. Rising correlations between crypto and high-beta tech stocks ahead of Nvidia's results.
4. Diminished confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge, diversifier, or store of value during recent market stress.

Options markets now imply less than a 5% chance of Bitcoin revisiting its $126,000 peak by year-end, with strong demand for downside protection between $85K–$80K. Despite near-term pressure, Bitcoin remains well above pre-election levels, and historically, sharp drawdowns have often set the stage for sizeable rebounds.

Conclusion
Markets enter the midweek session on edge as investors brace for one of the most important earnings announcements of the quarter. With the Fed’s December meeting, AI valuation concerns, and crypto volatility all converging, sentiment may remain fragile until Nvidia provides clarity on the trajectory of AI-related demand.

The next 48 hours are poised to play a crucial role in shaping market direction into year-end, and potentially redefining the narrative around the AI boom, risk appetite, and the role of digital assets in diversified portfolios.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th November 2025.

Nvidia’s Blowout Results Lift Global Stocks Ahead of Key NFP Jobs Data.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=jobs_featured
Asian Markets Rally After Strong Nvidia Earnings Boost Global Risk Sentiment
Asian stock markets surged on Thursday after Nvidia reported quarterly earnings far exceeding expectations, easing fears that the AI-driven market rally may have overheated. The tech giant’s exceptional results helped lift global sentiment, sending US futures, Asian indices, and major tech stocks sharply higher.

Nvidia Earnings Spark Global Market Optimism
Nvidia’s announcement of $57 billion in quarterly revenue, well above analyst forecasts, immediately reassured investors that demand for AI-related technologies remains resilient. The company’s earnings report helped push futures linked to the S&P 500 up 1.3% and Dow Jones futures up 0.7%, setting the tone for global trading.

Nvidia, which recently became the largest company on Wall Street after briefly crossing a $5 trillion valuation, rose 2.8% during Wednesday’s session and surged more than 5% in after-hours trading. With its growing weight in the index, the company’s results continue to play a significant role in shaping broader market direction.

Asian Markets Surge on Tech Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared as much as 4.2% in early trading before settling to a 2.7% gain at 49,854.20 by the afternoon. Investors reacted positively to Nvidia’s performance, which lifted Asian semiconductor and technology stocks across the region.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 2.5% to 4,026.12, supported by renewed strength in the chip sector. Samsung Electronics climbed 5%, while SK Hynix added 2.2%. Optimism was further boosted by reports that the United States may delay planned semiconductor tariffs, providing additional relief to the region’s exporters.

Not all markets shared in the rally. Chinese equities slipped, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite down 0.4%, as concerns resurfaced about the government’s next steps to stabilise the struggling property market. The People’s Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, adding to cautious sentiment.

Elsewhere, Taiwan’s Taiex gained 3.2%, India’s Sensex rose 0.4%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.2% on strong tech-sector performance.

Wall Street Stabilises Ahead of Key US Data
US markets experienced another volatile session on Wednesday before the S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher, breaking its longest losing streak in nearly three months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%.

Investors remained focused on Nvidia throughout the day, using the company’s results as a barometer for the broader AI investment cycle. Nvidia’s ability to consistently deliver strong profits is central to calming fears that AI valuations have become excessive. The stock had recently pulled back about 10% from its highs, making the latest earnings report a crucial moment for the market.

Investors Await US Jobs Report and Fed Direction
Market attention now shifts to the upcoming US September jobs report, a key indicator for assessing whether the Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates. The slowing labour market led the Fed to cut rates twice this year, and investors had been pricing in the possibility of another reduction in December.

However, recent comments from Fed officials suggested that policymakers may take a more cautious approach, especially as inflation remains above the 2% target. A potential pause in rate cuts has added fresh uncertainty at a time when equities remain sensitive to monetary policy signals.






Oil Prices Steady as Russia Sanctions Take Effect
Oil prices stabilised after a sharp decline on Wednesday as traders assessed the impact of upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which take effect on Friday. Brent crude traded near $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered below $60. The sanctions have already begun redirecting global oil flows, particularly affecting shipments to India,and have prompted Lukoil to seek buyers for several international assets. At the same time, the European Union is exploring additional measures to tighten pressure on Moscow.

Currency Market Movements Reflect Broader Policy Expectations
The US dollar strengthened to 157.58 yen, reflecting expectations that Japan may delay fiscal tightening as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi increases spending to support the economy. The euro slipped slightly to $1.1523 as broader market uncertainty persisted.





https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th November 2025.

Markets Rebound Ahead of Thanksgiving: Is a Fed Rate Cut Back on the Table?


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e=trump_powell
US stock futures climbed on Monday as markets entered the shortened Thanksgiving trading week, supported by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve may move towards an interest-rate cut in December. The rebound comes after a broad pullback earlier in the month that eased the pace of 2025’s strong AI-driven equity rally.
Futures tied to major US indices showed a positive tone early in the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged higher by roughly 0.2%, S&P 500 futures advanced around 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained close to 0.7%, signalling appetite for tech stocks after recent declines. The moves came as traders attempted to extend Friday’s rebound and position ahead of a data-heavy week.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8.original.png

Market sentiment improved following comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that a December rate cut remains a possibility. His remarks offered relief after a series of cautious statements from other policymakers. Still, November has been a difficult month for equities. The S&P 500 fell about 2% last week, widening its month-to-date decline to roughly 3.5%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.7% and is now down more than 6% in November, while the Dow slipped nearly 2% over the same period and is off close to 3% for the month. The declines reflect a broader reassessment of stretched valuations, particularly across AI-related sectors that led gains earlier in the year.
The US is still dealing with the lingering impact of the longest government shutdown in its history, which has disrupted the release schedule for key data. Economic indicators are now slowly returning, and traders are watching closely. September’s producer price index and retail sales numbers are expected on Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. These releases should help provide a clearer picture of inflation, consumer demand, and the potential timing of any Federal Reserve policy shift.
Earnings season is also winding down with a relatively quiet lineup. Reports from Alibaba, Dell Technologies, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and a few other retailers will be the highlights of the holiday-shortened week. US markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will operate on a shortened schedule on Friday, closing at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
Trade policy remains another area of uncertainty. The Supreme Court is preparing to rule on whether the bulk of President Trump’s tariffs were imposed legally. According to reports, the Commerce Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative have been preparing contingency plans should the ruling go against the administration. The decision could have broad implications for global trade flows and corporate pricing strategies.
Gold Prices Slip as Traders Weigh Prospects of a December Fed Rate Cut
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors assessed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end, reducing demand for the precious metal. Gold futures traded near $4,055 an ounce after a modest weekly decline, with traders cautious amid mixed signals from US central bank officials.
Despite the uncertainty, comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who noted that there may be scope for a near-term reduction in borrowing costs, helped gold pare some losses on Friday, although the metal still ended the session in the red. The delayed release of economic data due to the government shutdown has made it more difficult for markets to gauge the true likelihood of policy easing. The return of September retail sales and producer-price data on Tuesday, along with jobless claims on Wednesday, should provide a more reliable read on the economic landscape. Futures markets currently assign a little over 60% probability to a quarter-point rate cut in December.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...D.original.png
Gold has been consolidating after it surged to a record high above $4,380 per ounce on October 20. Even with recent softness, the metal remains up around 55% this year, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions, ongoing trade uncertainty, and concerns over deteriorating fiscal positions across major global economies. Analysts expect gold to continue trading within a relatively tight range for now. According to Ahmad Assiri, strategist at Pepperstone Group, the rate outlook is difficult to predict and may keep gold clustered around its current levels, creating an environment more conducive to two-way trading rather than sharp directional moves.
Spot gold slipped 0.3% to around $4,051.69 an ounce in Singapore trading. Silver held steady, while platinum and palladium posted gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, providing limited support for bullion.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...D.original.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.