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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #521
  • Edited 11:14pm Nov 6, 2025 10:10pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Agree! {quote} That's what I've been preaching from the beginning. I need an approach that generates a consistent cash flow in relatively short-term intervals and that constantly, enough to cover my bills (monthly or, at most, quarterly). Long-term profitability (12-24 months) is great, but I wouldn't know how to live on it in the meantime without significant savings or other sources of income. If this strategy would provide enough valid signals on the 1-hour chart for a single market like XAU/USD that I can dedicate to manual trading within...

Signal yesterday, I think gold is turning bullish and I don't think this will make take profit.
Edit: Buy Signal at 05:00 UTC, (close on reverse signal)
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  • #522
  • Edited 11:44pm Nov 6, 2025 10:34pm | Edited 11:44pm
Quoting Noisy
I asked ChatGPT. That’s a very good and realistic question — and the short answer is: Yes, it’s possible in theory, but very difficult in practice and requires exceptional consistency, risk management, and capital. Let’s break it down step by step 1. The Risk–Return Relationship If your maximum drawdown (DD) is €15,000, and you aim to make €5,000/month, your risk-to-return ratio looks like this: Target monthly return: €5,000 Max drawdown: €15,000 Risk/Reward ratio: 3:1 (you accept 3× more loss potential than a month’s...

If your question is regarding it is possible as an occupation. The flow of money as an occupation? I went down the intraday route because I enjoyed being in front of the computer, from testing R:R with win rate, draw down and capital, and in combination with my psychology. I targeted intraday, no positions overnight (on rare occasions), high win rate. R:R 2-1. sometimes 4:1/5:1 (news and a certain type of trade). I'm aggressive with partials and take profit. I don't wait for 1.27 fib% to be realised tomorrow.

I trade 10-15 trades a week, ~1000-2000 pips a week (realised banked pips) Most brokers this is displayed as 10,000 pips - I'm IC Markets and ~10,000 a week averaging over year.
In any given week, I average 10-15 trades a week, usually 1 or 2 of them are 4:1 trades, 78-82% typical win rate, with Highs of 100 and Lows of 72 this year.

Strategy financially, I avoid risk, and draw down is the enemy for a business, high R:R, is the ideal over 4:1. But stop loss and take profit are tied to win rate, it is hard to achieve consistently intraday. If you are going optimum figure. 4:1.

If you are looking to trade as a business, I believe this is the best way. If hobby/you have a job, any combination of the hour type trading with alerts. If you have large capital, swing long-term off 8-hour/daily with pure price action. This is the highest R: R, but the time needed to realise these gains, plus position sizing and stops, intraday will surpass in money generated.

If you're worried, the money might not be worth the time invested. Money is not a problem. I don't want to give figures, but from pips you can work out your position sizing. Intraday, you have to sort psychology, and invest a lot of time in training; If you achieve this, the sense of accomplishment is immense. The other methods do not have such a training and self-reflection requirement, because the computer or phone is probably switched off after the trade is placed.

From only reading your messages, I don't think you will enjoy intraday. Use this as a side hustle until you have enough money to switch; it will be difficult to do this when under stress.

If you are intelligent you will tend to overanlyse. Don't forget the chart is a visual representation of mass human psychology and how they handle stressful events. No algorithm can catch this with high R:R, win rate. Only a human brain and eyes can, this with judgment and volume is our edge. You only need a statistical edge, with clearly defined rules. The psychology and self discipline to stick to these rules and with money management it cant' fail

The simulator is our biggest advantage/tool - it is not a book. If you chart your account balance to simulator time, it will be parabolic. Every available minute rather than on this forum should be spent in the simulator, with time, patience, and determiantion you will not fail.
  • #523
  • Nov 7, 2025 1:39am Nov 7, 2025 1:39am
Quoting sharingan9
USDSEK setting up for potential short. CADCHF for potential long, EURCAD potential short
Results of the trades called out in advance:

USDSEK:

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CADCHF:

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EURCAD:

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Same setup. Mechanical.

How am I getting the exact turning points at these exact levels with the same setup? It is because the system can accurately discern the shared perception of value between buyers and sellers which is an indelible core of the markets meaning any and every market. Mechanical systems are certainly viable so long as the system depends on things that do not change what will never change is the fact that buyers and sellers have perceptions of value. This fact will never change so it can be systematically and mechanically exploited. All wins. Whenever you all are ready to actually call out trades let us know.
  • #524
  • Nov 7, 2025 5:49am Nov 7, 2025 5:49am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} It's much worse than that. If you start the month with a 10% loss, you need 9 positive trades of 2% each to recover the loss and make enough money to live on. How many times have you made 9, 2% trades in a row? What are the chances that you suffer another 10% loss before you get to 9 positive trades? Why do you believe a trade can return 2%? Why would you wait for a negative trade to fall 10%? What metrics do you use to measure risk and reward? What are you doing as a trade sinks 10%? Have you considered the possibility that trading seems...
I use various analysis tools to track my trading metrics and review them at least once at the end of the week.

I believe my risk management is appropriate and very conservative. That doesn't seem to be the main issue right now; rather, it's whether the profits are sufficient and will be generated within the necessary timeframe to sustainably achieve the desired minimum profitability, which will allow me to make regular payouts on a monthly or quarterly basis.

I'm not risking 2% per trade, but 0.25%. To reach a Max DD of -10%, I would have to lose 40 trades in a row. My current longest losing streak is 8 trades, and according to my historical backtests over a period of 10 years, the highest losing streak was 15 trades.

When I run a Risk of Ruin calculator on my current trading account, I get the following result.

"There is 0.00% chance that you will lose 10% of your balance with your system based on the trades you have made so far"

Some stats:

Trades: 152
Win rate (%): 47.4%
Profit Factor: 1.49
Avg Win / Avg Loss: $55.60 / $33.70

Max Balance Drawdown: 5.30%
Current Equity: $11,355.20
Commissions & Swap: -$9.31 / $0.00

Daily: +0.36%
Weekly: +1.77%
Monthly: +4.18%
Annualized: +154.24%
  • #525
  • Edited 6:31am Nov 7, 2025 6:13am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting M31
{quote} If your question is regarding it is possible as an occupation. The flow of money as an occupation? I went down the intraday route because I enjoyed being in front of the computer, from testing R:R with win rate, draw down and capital, and in combination with my psychology. I targeted intraday, no positions overnight (on rare occasions), high win rate. R:R 2-1. sometimes 4:1/5:1 (news and a certain type of trade). I'm aggressive with partials and take profit. I don't wait for 1.27 fib% to be realised tomorrow. I trade 10-15 trades a week,...
Well, the win rate and the risk-reward ratio generally have an inverse relationship. A strategy with a high win rate typically has a lower risk-reward ratio, while a strategy with a low win rate often needs a higher risk-reward ratio to be profitable.

For me personally, it's relatively uninteresting whether I trade a system with a high win rate or a high average reward to risk. My goal/need is to achieve a consistent minimum monthly or quarterly return, as sustainably as possible under the risk I'm willing to take / makes sense, and for the time being. Whether it's an intraday system with a high win rate, a long-term swing trading strategy, or whatever else, is secondary to me. The most important thing is that I can execute it with discipline and within the time available to me.

However, what seems normal to me is that a system with a high average reward-to-risk ratio (e.g 4:1) may not be found in the time periods over which I need to have a certain minimum profit, and that these tend to offer longer-term trend/swing trading approaches that are geared towards annualized performance.

On the other hand, a system with a high win rate is perhaps only sustainably achievable through an algorithm, as you said, manual intraday trading is brutal if you try to do it manually, potentially having to monitor charts and actively micro-manage positions for hours.

That wouldn't be sustainable for me either and would probably just lead to burnout again quickly. My years of trying to do this have repeatedly shown me that it has been pointless for me, especially without clear rules, perfect risk management, and 100% emotional control. As I said, I'm not a good discretionary chart reader (see the chart I posted where I tried to actively day trade the DAX for a day), nor do I particularly enjoy having to look at a screen all day, which I already do far too much. And it's not really good for my mental health, nor for my money, if I'm just going to burn through it faster. My goal is to make money, not lose it.

Therefore, I asked whether the described approach of trading gold on the 1-hour chart would lead to the required minimum targets if I were to perfectly follow all these signals and the described rules month after month. To reiterate, my goal is to achieve at least +2% (+2R) per month under the lowest possible drawdown (whichever makes sense here and is realistically achievable). Period!
  • #526
  • Nov 7, 2025 6:53am Nov 7, 2025 6:53am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Well, the win rate and the risk-reward ratio generally have an inverse relationship. A strategy with a high win rate typically has a lower risk-reward ratio, while a strategy with a low win rate often needs a higher risk-reward ratio to be profitable. For me personally, it's relatively uninteresting whether I trade a system with a high win rate or a high average reward to risk. My goal/need is to achieve a consistent minimum monthly or quarterly return, as sustainably as possible under the risk I'm willing to take / makes sense, and for...
Its the high R:R that you will need to avoid draw down effects, if you do not have a high win rate. The relationship you mentioned, yes, from the compounding effect of high R:R

It's profitable, but I went a different route for profitable full time. I traded like this with EUR, Cable, others, for 2-3 years profitably. In the UK spread betting is tax-free, with employment.

It was with more knowledge that I diverted away from this method, and became unprofitable, only to discover later that simple is best. Usually, with time, you have to modify the strategy slightly, as the method is no longer effective. Without a candle shape coded and used as a filter, it would not be great. I can not say whether this will or not be suitable for you long term. For what you have in mind, you probably want to avoid ranging commodities, currencies and concentrate on indices.

Before 2023, Gold wasn't really a big interest for me. At some stage, I will have to switch from exclusive Gold trading; you have to constantly adapt.
  • #527
  • Nov 7, 2025 7:30am Nov 7, 2025 7:30am
Quoting M31
{quote} Its the high R:R that you will need to avoid draw down effects, if you do not have a high win rate. The relationship you mentioned, yes, from the compounding effect of high R:R It's profitable, but I went a different route for profitable full time. I traded like this with EUR, Cable, others, for 2-3 years profitably. In the UK spread betting is tax-free, with employment. It was with more knowledge that I diverted away from this method, and became unprofitable, only to discover later that simple is best. Usually, with time, you have to modify...
Yes, some really good points. I wanted to try coding what you're using this weekend.

Regarding taxes and trading: Here in Germany, where I live, the situation is that you have to pay 25% capital gains tax plus solidarity surcharge (a total of 26.375%) on all capital gains/trading income (trading your own account).

If I were to sell some of my crypto investments, I could potentially raise €50,000 of my own capital for my own trading account, but even then, with a 2% return per month, that wouldn't even come close to bringing in the €5,000/month to cover my current living expenses. More like 250k would be needed. It wouldn't even mean the life I actually envision from trading, but as I said, only the minimum I need to live (well more survive).

Therefore, my idea, and probably the only realistic prospect for "trading for a living", was to generate a certain income through borrowed capital/prop trading. FTMO for example offers up to 400k in trading capital (if you pass the evaluation and stay within the rules on your "funded" account). With a profit share of 80% for the trader. Also you wouldn't even have to risk your own money which can be very psychologically advantageous and exerts less pressure.

The other option I'm currently trying to raise capital is Darwinex, but I haven't received any capital from them yet, and they only pay 15% on your profits. It seems to be a very very long-term game with them. The advantage there is maximum flexibility regarding trading; there are no limiting drawdown rules or other restrictions. They're also a regulated broker, and their business model isn't designed to profit from losing traders by imposing impossible-to-beat rules.

So, this would then be taxed under normal income tax, similar to my current income as a self-employed individual. I currently pay around 35% in taxes. The tax rates are progressive and depend on the amount of income. You get completely ripped off here, yes. I'd like to emigrate somewhere with more sunshine and lower taxes, but that definitely doesn't work. I would need a lot more money for that.

While I understand the need to constantly adapt one's strategy to the given market conditions, I am therefore looking for a reasonably robust approach that at least comes close to achieving my required goals under the given conditions WITHOUT requiring me to constantly make massive changes to the strategy, or at least having very objective rules for when and how I should change things.
  • #528
  • Nov 7, 2025 7:44am Nov 7, 2025 7:44am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} {quote} {quote} After the EURPLN signal all of the additional conditions were met so I sold: {image} The spread on this pair is crazy though but spreads should be normal come next week. Same setup. Also had a signal on USDSEK {image}
and when did you close?
  • #529
  • Nov 7, 2025 7:50am Nov 7, 2025 7:50am
Quoting medici
{quote} No worries, I'm just getting tired of this. Why? 1. Your fantasies about trading are delusional, and do not merit further discussion. 2. The causes of your suffering are to be found in you, not in your circumstances. We're not getting anywhere with that here; it requires professional help. Enough. Good luck and goodbye.
I've been thinking a lot about what you wrote regarding "surrendering." I must have misunderstood it and interpreted it as a kind of "giving up" and passive inaction, which I don't think is what you meant. Unfortunately, depression can rob you of all ability. Surrendering is hard for people with depression (a serious illness, not a sign of weakness) because it often requires a degree of acceptance, a positive outlook, and the mental energy to actively let go of the struggle.

I tried meditation, but it hasn't helped that much. Exercise helps somewhat including medication. It's not that I'm fighting against everything and not trying to accept what I can't change. I'm simply looking for solutions and I've reached the point where doing nothing and acceptance won't change anything either for me.

Trust you understand
  • #530
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:00am Nov 7, 2025 9:00am
Quoting M31
{quote} Its the high R:R that you will need to avoid draw down effects, if you do not have a high win rate. The relationship you mentioned, yes, from the compounding effect of high R:R It's profitable, but I went a different route for profitable full time. I traded like this with EUR, Cable, others, for 2-3 years profitably. In the UK spread betting is tax-free, with employment. It was with more knowledge that I diverted away from this method, and became unprofitable, only to discover later that simple is best. Usually, with time, you have to modify...
I agree completely. I've flooded myself with so much garbage that it became overcomplicated and it just made trading harder. Some instruments trade better and react better according to the cycle and time of year, it's best to find what is working right now and focus on that. Now I must say it's important to learn the character of the instrument and it takes awhile.
  • #531
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:10am Nov 7, 2025 9:10am
Some good signals on the 5 min chart-enter on break short for scalps short
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  • #532
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:11am Nov 7, 2025 9:11am
Divergence.
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  • #533
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:14am Nov 7, 2025 9:14am
The 30 min shows a beautiful sweep
  • #534
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:29am Nov 7, 2025 9:29am
Quoting Thadfinch
{quote} and when did you close?
Eurpln was closed On nov 3 first hour of london session 10:12 gmt + 2 time. Should have held it as that level held and price is now at weekly middle pivot but I never know if the new weekly interpretation will move up or down upon new week open so i got out while still in profit
  • #535
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:42am Nov 7, 2025 9:42am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Eurpln was closed On nov 3 first hour of london session 10:12 gmt + 2 time. Should have held it as that level held and price is now at weekly middle pivot but I never know if the new weekly interpretation will move up or down upon new week open so i got out while still in profit
Nice job!

I've been watching the madness on the 1 min. I am going to stay out so I leave the week with money. I would hate to give it all back
  • #536
  • Nov 7, 2025 9:43am Nov 7, 2025 9:43am
Will we sweep another 30 min candle? lol

This is one of those days where you can be one and done or screw around and lose a lot.
  • #537
  • Nov 7, 2025 10:04am Nov 7, 2025 10:04am
Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #538
  • Nov 7, 2025 11:19am Nov 7, 2025 11:19am
Quoting calderone
Have a great weekend everyone.
Same to you!
  • #539
  • Edited 2:16am Nov 8, 2025 2:03am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I've been thinking a lot about what you wrote regarding "surrendering." I must have misunderstood it and interpreted it as a kind of "giving up" and passive inaction, which I don't think is what you meant. Unfortunately, depression can rob you of all ability. Surrendering is hard for people with depression (a serious illness, not a sign of weakness) because it often requires a degree of acceptance, a positive outlook, and the mental energy to actively let go of the struggle. I tried meditation, but it hasn't helped that much. Exercise helps...
Recall the sauna conversation with a priest that I shared earlier. He commended me for being able to let go of, or surrender, a promising and lucrative career, and said that because of that ability I wouldn't, unlike his parishioners, be imprisoned by my life circumstances.

What he said is an expression of a deeper law: self-concern is bondage. People driven by self-concern end up in life situations where they are stuck between attraction to what they desire and repulsion of what they fear, which leads to a life that oscillates between those two poles.

People who are free, on the other hand, are not stuck in such oscillating structures, and they are not driven by self-concern but by values such as, for example, truth, beauty, love, etc.

Differently put, lives that are oscillating between two poles are uncreative and lead to unhappiness. Lives not stuck in such patterns have creative potential and instead of oscillating they may be more like the growing of a plant, the blossoming of a rose, etc.
  • #540
  • Edited 7:32am Nov 8, 2025 6:07am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting medici
{quote} Recall the sauna conversation with a priest that I shared earlier. He commended me for being able to let go of, or surrender, a promising and lucrative career, and said that because of that ability I wouldn't, unlike his parishioners, be imprisoned by my life circumstances. What he said is an expression of a deeper law: self-concern is bondage. People driven by self-concern end up in life situations where they are stuck between attraction to what they desire and repulsion of what they fear, which leads to a life that oscillates between those...
Yes, I understand that and agree. It's just that I'm anything but self-concerned. I also value truth, beauty, and love above personal financial goals, but when you're struggling with financial problems every day for almost two decades, along with many other psychological and personal burdens, you might see things a little differently.

If I were so egocentric, I probably wouldn't be spending most of my day caring for my father (or many other things and people in my life that are far more important to me than financial success).

You're probably at a completely different point in your life and have already had financial and other personal success, which I haven't (see the luxurious ski resort you were able to visit). I'm guessing you're retired and your finances are largely secure. But when you wake up in the morning worrying about how you're going to make it through the day because you can't pay for anything (sometimes not even healthy food or the medication you need), the bills are piling up, and you're constantly sad and afraid, couldn't take a vacation for 10+ years, that inner happiness, independent of external circumstances, isn't so easy to see/feel...
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