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Attachments: Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas
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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

Quoting Igrok
It is definitely a broadening triangle which might turn into a diamond. However it is also important to keep in mind that broadening triangle itself is a separate technical formation that usually works as a continuation pattern.
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wow Igrok
you are spot on about this broadening triangle working out as a continuation move.

Wish i had saw it a day earlier
haha
Quoting SeekingLight
I was thinking 1.31 first, but heck, I got time and room left

Igrok, I just wanted to congratulate you. Obviously this is one of those nice "harharharhar" moments when all those people too stuck in unidirectional outlooks kept trying to buy dips as we fell 400-800 pips on the majors and a few k on the carry pairs rather swiftly.



Isn't it nice how the real world takes care to accomodate our technical outlooks? They made a subprime/mortgage disaster just so that the cycles could complete.

Btw, since you are a long termer: I have watched 6-10 years being "cycles" (looked over some historic charts)and that New year and July seem to be THE times for turning points very often.

I would really really love to hear your opinion on this, especially since it was you putting on a "turning position" on the side on that new years party anecdote if I remember correctly
I'm not a long termer. I just like to take big whenever there is an opportunity present. Now with just 4 months left into the end of the year and the trading range of less that a half of the average annual it might be that such an opportunity knocks the door.
In regards to your charts I would say that there is a fully set bearish wedge on the loger-term EUR/USD. The break lower seems inavitable and should also lead to the change of the direction of the main move of the year and then to an extension of the yearly range toward 1.15-17 initially and to the parity eventually.
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Igrok
does it look like the GBP/JPY is going to finish the symetry with the beginning of the year and made its lows here turning it into a diamond formation
I am not apologizing yet Igrok, but after the recent decline I must acknowledge a big chance that EUR/USD is going to fall much further.

But I still can't believe it will be parity, not this year.

I just can't believe that the Dollar can get much stronger giving the current problems the US is having.
Quoting jotty
Igrok
does it look like the GBP/JPY is going to finish the symetry with the beginning of the year and made its lows here turning it into a diamond formation
I don't think that we should expect a diamond here. Not on GBP/JPY on my view. But on Cable monthly charts it might form something like that. What it has been doing since the end of 2003 - beginning of 2004 so far today looks like either a half-formed H&S formation or a broadening triangle in progress (currently in the process of forming the biggest diagonal). In both cases 1.70 is a must. Only after reaching this level we might make a more certain conclusion.
Quoting Kurti
I am not apologizing yet Igrok, but after the recent decline I must acknowledge a big chance that EUR/USD is going to fall much further.

But I still can't believe it will be parity, not this year.

I just can't believe that the Dollar can get much stronger giving the current problems the US is having.
First of all, word "believe" is not even in my professional vocabulary. There is no reason to use it in regards to our business.
Second, I didn't say that it will reach the parity this year. I said that it can do that. Timing is the toughest to predict. However I also think that the parity is a legit target and has a huge chance to be hit in longer term.
Quoting Igrok
Next insane call is for the parity on the EUR/USD (Not sure about timing though. Might take a bit longer) and for 1.70 on Cable (expected before the end of the year).
My friend, it does sound insane but...

"He who lives without folly, is not as wise as he thinks"

...and the carry will come unfolded in a big way very soon, what we've seen so far is just the first wave...

Does that sound insane as well ? It might do considering that the majority of analysts are saying we should buy the dips because stocks are as low as they have been for 11 yrs...

"it will pass, it's just a healthy retracement in bull market"

do you believe them ???

mmmmm, maybe I am just as mad as Igrok.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
Igrok, in the book a lot of the templates recommend a S&R as part of the trade, i know this is a pretty general question. But when dealing with trend lines, shapes and formations, are S&R's standard for all trades.

I've been trading without them, and trades are successful and some aren't, and i had an "Ah Ha" moment the other day and thought i'd have been much better having S&R's because of the price action with practically all my trades..
Quoting Blackinc
Igrok, in the book a lot of the templates recommend a S&R as part of the trade, i know this is a pretty general question. But when dealing with trend lines, shapes and formations, are S&R's standard for all trades.

I've been trading without them, and trades are successful and some aren't, and i had an "Ah Ha" moment the other day and thought i'd have been much better having S&R's because of the price action with practically all my trades..
Reversal makes sense mostly when you have a good reason to believe that current range is well below normal and that it will be extended within a certain time frame. For example, when by Friday some currency pair stays in the range of about a hundred pips while its average is above two hundred, then it would be resonable to assume that the range will be extended to form that average or something close to it. Today, for example, is one of those days when weekly range on the swissy and the euro is short of normal and this is why I think it is likely to be extended for about another 100 pips. USD/CAD also looks interesting. It is forming a symmetrical pattern on hourlies and is likely to extend it wildly. Don't know which way though, but the upside looks more likely at the moment. In such case something like 1.0750 could be a reasonable target even for today.
Quoting Igrok
Reversal makes sense mostly when you have a good reason to believe that current range is well below normal and that it will be extended within a certain time frame. For example, when by Friday some currency pair stays in the range of about a hundred pips while its average is above two hundred, then it would be resonable to assume that the range will be extended to form that average or something close to it.
Ok, so its good to have a look at average ranges before deciding on and S&R. Good point, thank you.

Quoting Igrok
USD/CAD also looks interesting. It is forming a symmetrical pattern on hourlies and is likely to extend it wildly. Don't know which way though, but the upside looks more likely at the moment. In such case something like 1.0750 could be a reasonable target even for today.
Are you refering to the diamond shape forming on the USD/CAD? I have what i think is a big diamond almost finished forming on the CAD starting around the 26th of July. But there's also a smaller one starting around the 16th of September. The if they break opposite the main diagonal, that would be up.
BTW there has been another obvious diamond formed on swissy daily chart with the break occuring (as it supposed to be) in the direction opposite to the direction of the main diagonal
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Igrok is the main diagonal the top left line on the top left of the diamond
Quoting jotty
Igrok is the main diagonal the top left line on the top left of the diamond
Main diagonal is the longest one that directly connects the very top of the formation with the very bottom of it. In this case the bottom was formed first at 1.1816 and later the top was formed at 1.2216. So, there is a single main diagonal of 400 pips with the main direction being upward. After forming a single diagonal diamond the market usually makes a break in the direction opposite to the direction of the main diagonal. Some diamonds have two main diagonals of equal size (traders often mistakenly identify some of them as H&S's) and other rules for the following extension apply.
Was that a box 18.4 on the Cable today?

I watched it set up, as it perfectly made new high and low and came back to the days open price. How solid would you say the trade was though considering the pound has changed its move for the week to down?
Quoting Blackinc
Was that a box 18.4 on the Cable today?

I watched it set up, as it perfectly made new high and low and came back to the days open price. How solid would you say the trade was though considering the pound has changed its move for the week to down?
Cable is too late to discuss. The range is too big. It seems now that it would make sense to buy swissy on the next change of the direction of the main move of the day.

Its intraday range is about 40 pips while week's range is less than a hundred. Seems too short for a whole week. I wouldn't expect too much but it might get to 1.1940 if the cap on 1.1881 gets broken. (Template #18.1.) Or as an option you can buy euro on the next change above 1.3897 on the same template. No need to predict. Both entry stops can be placed ahead of time and one of two orders will be triggered today.
Strangely enough and despite of all these rates related events and the recent market volatility, the USD/CHF has managed to stay inside of what appears to look like a half-formed diamond on daily charts. Another uneventful day or two while trading within the range of 1.1800-1.1900 is likely to call for a bullish reversal on this pair at the end of the week.
Well I am glad someone has some good news for me since I went long on CHF via the Pin Bar from last Thursday or so... Did not think then of the rate decrease, but right now price is dangerously close to my stop and making me very uncomfortable... as there is a whole $ 6 dollars on the line for me here which is 1/4 % of my account... do i really need to be so antsy ?? No not really, but still...


Quoting Igrok
Strangely enough and despite of all these rates related events and the recent market volatility, the USD/CHF has managed to stay inside of what appears to look like a half-formed diamond on daily charts. Another uneventful day or two while trading within the range of 1.1800-1.1900 is likely to call for a bullish reversal on this pair at the end of the week.
Attached Image
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well I am glad someone has some good news for me since I went long on CHF via the Pin Bar from last Thursday or so... Did not think then of the rate decrease, but right now price is dangerously close to my stop and making me very uncomfortable... as there is a whole $ 6 dollars on the line for me here which is 1/4 % of my account... do i really need to be so antsy ?? No not really, but still...
This is not a sure thing and is likely to be decided by the end of the week. Current levels on most of the currency pairs including JPY crosses are critical. If the reverse takes place it should be seen on all of them simultaneously.
However if the current bottom on the swissy doesn't hold then 1.1630-40 level comes into play almost certainly.
Quoting Igrok
This is not a sure thing and is likely to be decided by the end of the week. Current levels on most of the currency pairs including JPY crosses are critical. If the reverse takes place it should be seen on all them simultaneously.
However if the current bottom on the swissy doesn't hold then 1.1630-40 level comes into play almost certainly.
Always enjoyed your commentary Igrok. Thanks for your efforts and keep posting!

-Ahmed
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
Quoting Igrok
This is not a sure thing and is likely to be decided by the end of the week. Current levels on most of the currency pairs including JPY crosses are critical. If the reverse takes place it should be seen on all of them simultaneously.
However if the current bottom on the swissy doesn't hold then 1.1630-40 level comes into play almost certainly.
I am SO expecting EURUSD and USDCAD to reverse in the next 1 - 20 days

But we will see...could take a while longer perhaps, but I doubt it.
If I can't imagine < 1.0 USDCAD the most likely others can't either

(I figured this is still the best place to make seemingly mad claims that then unfold eventually)

Well, one way or another, I am keeping an open mind towards it...still got that wedge to take care of on EURUSD...
Trust price. Know yourself.
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